Hot Housing or Printers Ink? 9.67% Deflation Case

October’s Case-Shiller, S&P/CoreLogic Housing report headlines a 19.1% year-on-year bump in housing prices.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

In October, 18 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.

What does it mean to the Real Estate sector?

“In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended October 2021. October’s increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 17 of them. As was the case last month, however, in 14 of 20 cities, prices decelerated – i.e., increased by less in October than they had done in September. “Phoenix’s 32.3% increase led all cities for the 29th consecutive month. Tampa (+28.1%) and Miami (+25.7%) continued in second and third place in October, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +24.4%), but every region continued to log double-digit gains.”

Before our take on it, here’s the average home price performance:

Now, as to our take on it?

There’s a sleight-of-hand the FedGov has been playing via the banker cabal that runs the Fed.

If you look at the Monetary base in the H.6 Money Stocks table here, you’ll quickly calculate monetary inflation in the period was about 28.755 percent.

Since we know Housing was up 19.1 and monetary inflation was 28.755, the difference is an actual DEFLATION RATE of perhaps 9.675%.

Which is why a lot of people are confused by gold and silver prices, too.  But we’ll skip that because if you believe things are better than last year, you need rehab and not just a sampling of reality-based facts to bring you around.

Write when you get rich,

40 thoughts on “Hot Housing or Printers Ink? 9.67% Deflation Case”

  1. I wonder if things will accelerate this winter…

    I have known people in special forces..they always before a major conflict had a thirty day leave to visit friends and family if it was a planned event.
    Yesterday I had a visitor that is a colonel his wife kids etc.. came by..It was a nice visit.. he is in a place where then it does light up.. they will be the first drawn in.. now he didn’t say anything but he did say they were taking a month before deployment to visit friends and family..
    So is there an event thirty days out? We will know about the twentieth of January.. OH HEY that would be one year in office.. dam..

    • 11.232 mHz and 11.175 mHz. USB.

      Bullets and beans get positioned in or near theatre a few weeks in advance.
      Should light up soon. The nature of the voice traffic is mundane and highly routine — about piffling incidental side details of operations; but the Tempo of the operation IS revealed by the density of this routine stuff.

      Like when it’s 0300, and 37 pizza delivery trucks are lined up just outside the Pentagon’s delivery docks., and lots of lights are on. (They don’t allow that any more…)

      • “37 pizza delivery trucks are lined up just outside the Pentagon’s delivery docks., and lots of lights are on. (They don’t allow that any more…)”

        Pizza delivery trucks.. at 0300 that is odd and kind of scary.. sort of like late night meetings and planning sessions… as if there was something going on that isn’t going to be very good news for the people….Unfortunately I don’t know anyone in a position to gather the gossip of the goings on there anymore. There hasn’t been any activity at the farm though.. but then I don’t know if the govt finally sold that DUMB shelter…..Back in the seventies….It was a half dozen Krispy Cream trucks.. and they were drop the morning creams for the staff and move along…

  2. George, I’m having an ‘office’ day after a few days off for the holidays and a lot of refreshing manual labor on a few projects around the house. It feels good to produce something tangible in objective reality from time to time.

    Pardon my posting on a unrelated blog post, but wow that I’m caught up on recent columns and Saturday’s PN, I wanted expound on something that I have some direct personal knowledge of that you talked about in Saturday’s PN. Namely some of the cyclical disasters that have (and will) occur here on planet Earth. As many of you know, I’m a professionally registered geologist and I got pulled into this area of research a few years ago through co-hosting a podcast. During this ongoing journey I ended meeting and becoming friends with Randall Carlson, who is a fascinating guy and a hell of a carpenter. I’ve sat up to the wee hours of the morning discussing this stuff with Randall in his own house.

    Where am I’m going with this is that both Randall and Graham Hancock (who I haven’t met, yet) have been right about a lot of the things that they postulated. In this case, there is a cyclical series of impacts from cometary debris and not meteors per se and our annual meteor showers are a part of that. People have been looking for the ‘smoking gun’ crater for the event that happened during the Younger Dryas period 12,800 years ago, but I’m starting to realize that there probably isn’t one. The thinking now is that a giant comet disintegrated in the inner solar system and the Earth passes through it’s debris field(s) annually. In most of recorded history we’ve passed through only the edges of the debris field, but on a cyclical basis, the Earth moves into areas of denser debris. So, imagine that instead of one big Hollywood-style impact event what you have is thousands of air bursts that last for weeks at a time maybe 2 or 3 times a year. Think Tunguska happening 500 times globally this October. This process goes on for a decade or more. I really think that the October Orionids is the real culprit. That would match up nicely with world-wide traditions that go along with that time of year. You know, Halloween, the witching hour, dead rising and all of that. It would also explain why, historically, comets have been considered bad omens. That idea was not only passed down through tradition, but it might have become a genetic memory in our species geared towards self-preservation like being afraid of the dark.

    There are also other events in history that we were not sure actually happened, but now we think we know when and how they happened. Think Sodom and Gomorrah. They really existed and they were wiped out by this very process in one day.

    On the show we have had several episodes discussing these topics over the last couple of years. We have actual Phd level guests who are experts in this stuff on the show, so if anyone is really interested in this info you should check those episodes out. Our latest episode discusses the even that probably took out the biblical party towns. Pillar of Salt, anyone?

    The point here is that we know for certain that these things have occurred in the past. We know when, we know why, we know what the culprit is and we also know that we’re moving back into the more dense regions of cometary debris. It may not be this year or even this decade, but it is going to happen again. Keep an eye on fireball reports. They’ve been ticking up lately.

    • Good morning sir. I have read and watched both Randall and Graham. Good stuff. As a professional geologist you might be interested in reading this book by a professional geologist.

      I asked the author, a friend of mine, why he didn’t condense it? The reply was that it was written for his class when he was teaching. Interesting person as well as a very fine person.

      For world events her is an archived site of some of his writings.

      • Hutton Commentaries!? OMG, haven’t heard about him in don’t know how long since he discontinued his site. I talked to him through that site about the strong similarities between, I can’t remember exactly what, but it was some legends he’d written about and the time lines, philosophies and accounts in some Hebraic lectures I was attending at the time. He wanted me to write a short article on it but I was swamped at the time. It was just before he discontinued his site and he was calling for people to send him material. I’ll bet I have a few of his articles saved on my old PC somewhere. He certainly was one of the ones that boosted my searches into the world of esoteric teachings and knowledge. I was really heartbroken when he disappeared.

    • Thank you for posting this and the link.

      If you’re not familiar with Ben over at Suspicious Observers, go take a look at some of the material. I’ve read/listened to most of his material and reviewed his posts and video material. Very well researched, continually updated, and supported by a wide range of research. His material is generally very ‘information dense’ and usually takes a couple of passes and then some contemplation to fully understand the implications.

      Good Luck to us All

    • Spot on, MAJ13! Thanks for that post. Even the Smithsonian is on board with this comet hypothesis, backed by a global list of corroborating evidences.

      Richard Firestone and Albert Goodyear validated the presence of nanodiamonds at a layer dated 12,900 or so years old at the Topper archaeological site located in South Carolina. Other sites across the America’s also produced the nanodiamonds at the same level and date. PNAS published their research, now widely accepted in academic circles.

      I had the privilege several years ago to tour the Meadowcroft Rock Shelter site in SW PA and was in a group that received a lecture/presentation and site tour by Jim Adovasio, who excavated the site in the early 70s while teaching at the U. of Pittsburgh. Adovasio is currently teaching and running the archaeology department at Mercyhurst in Erie PA and is heavily involved in coastal N. American underwater archaeology in his search to ID ancient human settlements (prior to the sea level rise at the end of the Ice Age). His work was groundbreaking (pun intended), demonstrating Clovis paleo American first peoples occupied the site for at last 16-19,000 years, living at the edge of the glacial advance, which was scientific heresy at the time and now largely validated by hard scientific evidence.

    • Good movie on the topic of incoming comets, “Don’t look up”. It’s a dark comedy, now showing on Netflix.

    • Hi, George,

      I agree with Maj13, in that Randall Carlson and Graham Hancock have presented extremely compelling videos and interviews regarding the catastrophic events of Earth’s geologic history. I think that Graham had been a correspondent for the Economist magazine, back when it reported news, not ridiculous commentary. I have several books written by Graham Hancock that are well written and well researched. Also, Robert Schock, PhD has stated that the Sphinx in Egypt exhibits erosion features consistent with extreme torrential rains. This is also the case with the dry cataract area in northern Washington state, where Randall Carlson believes that the same thing occurred there but in a short time. The only thing that could have made the two mile thick glaciers upon the Earth melt catastrophically would have been an extraterrestrial event, like a large asteroid impact. Just my opinion.

      I would caution folks about Graham’s promotion of Ayahuasca. If you do this kind of drug, I would recommend having someone there who is sober and can battle any entity who may be malevolent. You do not know who or what may come through a dream or a portal. Just be cautious, please. Thank you.

      • I agree with Nancy. Ayahuasca is serious systemic DMT and you’ve signed up for seven hours of being in a very different realm. It’s neither for the faint hearted nor the inexperienced with altered states. It can be enlightening, but it can be quite challenging. It can be a place of intense fear and uncertainty of your actual reality. Other psychedelics are far more foregiving and generally shorter acting. Then there’s the purge, though that’s the least of it. Few Americans will do a second trip. I’m agnostic regarding others’ experiences, but having a sitter or group might help some folks. Be very careful of your diet prior to doing so(nothing with tyrosine) and don’t even think of taking anything else (especially a prescribed MAOI) concurrently. Read what you can in advance, though there’s nothing that can prepare you for the experience. Stay warm and dry! You will come back to consensus reality eventually, though it may take much longer than you think.

        Of course, that’s just what I’ve heard over the years.

      • Schock is right about his interpretation of the age of the Sphinx and its enclosure. The limestone bedrock shows clear signs of being exposed to thousands of years of water erosion. That could have only occurred LONG before Northern Africa’s current climate conditions. I wouldn’t be surprised if that whatever the Sphinx and it’s enclosure originally started out as is older than 25,000 years.

  3. Remember “Shoemaker-Levy Comet” of a few years back?
    It passed too close to Jupiter on a previous pass, and got broken up into pieces. Lots of pieces. We all saw the photos of the terminal pass, when the train of fragments, strung out over the years, impacted Jupiter.
    Had any of the big ones hit Earth, it would have been an “ELE.” Extinction Level Event.

    Stands to reason large asteroids and comets have been broken up before, and also produced long trains of rubble, likely of bell-curve (Standard Normal) distribution of masses. (Some dust, some monsters.)

    If I recall my science rightly, the various meteor showers that occur in certain months regularly, are thought to be “belts” of strung-out debris, some dust, some bigger ones, all training along in a solar orbit that earth penetrates during those months.

    For all those reasons, I think the various annual meteor showers are higher-than-normal probability windows to intercept a Big One.

  4. Big cities are where the money and jobs are. Don’t be surprised at these numbers. The economy is on fire. I live it every day…There is no break in the hockey stick patterns of growth in my metropolitan area and the other big markets either. Fly over country is becoming fly away from country as people flock to big markets for jobs and a better life. And believe me, it’s a much better life…

    • Better as in less sustainable? Big cities make nearly zero food, energy, and many things (like finance and healthcare) are becoming distributed systems…
      From out here, looks more like rushing to relocate to Dresden for work.
      But that aside, how are unit volumes (not prices) doing YoY? That might be more convincing that inflated prices…

      • as I start another batch of wine LOL…. strawberry and dandelion.. heck paid the grandkids for picking dandelions.. might as well make the batch clear up some space in the freezer….

    • Mark, you’d not believe how many refugees from California are moving to the entire mountain west, to our chagrin! They’re all trying to get away from all the things you’re selling your buyers on. Yes, the cities have more women, though perhaps even fewer willing ones, but anyone with real money doesn’t need to make lots more. Few of us make it to 100 and none so far to 150, so if you have enough, why deal with the rat race. What lifestyle are you referring to? Out here, we have sun, nature, freedom to do or not do, opportunity to build and create largely as we wish to, and we don’t have to accommodate millions of other folks. Rubbing shoulders with anyone is rare, other than possibly holding the door for someone at the post office. If you’re married(and you are), and have resources, the only reason you work as hard as you do is because you choose it. I’ve been in SF and Oakland and couldn’t wait to leave. I’m quite confused as to what the attraction is, other than for those who still seek for more resources while necessarily engaging in a high consumption lifestyle.

    • “Big cities are where the money and jobs are.”

      When it all gets active.. with defunded police departments.. any city mid size on up ..will be the last place anyone would want to be..
      Especially a port city…

    • I had this conversation with my daughter about her friend that moved to NY, NY for a accounting job. For all the reasons you mention she wants to live in an area like you describe. Slowly though companies will need far fewer areas to consolidate people. Last year Shopify went completely virtual (closed all their office spaces). People especially those single or with no children to raise, may really be attracted to being in a tight (people density) environment. It personally kills me a little inside to be within those kinds of environments. Glad we can all still have options. Lots of people seem to be expressing their options to exit some of these highly regulated states run by socialist leaning governments. Will those impact your business, maybe not, but if places are not growing, they are normally stagnating. It could make some sense to consider opening another office in an area experiencing growth and spread your risk. Realestate sales seems to be one of those jobs where you need to be physically close to your product.

  5. Yep . Stay strong all . They are 2 good for me these guys . Never seen nothing ever like this . No whining just sark it up and stay healthy . Thank you george for being george. Anyway at least we all got class and integrity

  6. George, why put the book mentioned on Kindle? or any book?
    If no power, no internet, no book.
    A good, real, in-the-hands print copy can always be picked up, read and kept to go back to.
    Which is why I’d like to see your books in print, too.

    • A single solar panel will provide enough power to run a tablet or even a laptop. Once an ebook is downloaded, it can be read without the net. I’ll never allow my ebooks to reside only on the “cloud”. I try to have redundant copies of everything of consequence that I own. Printing is possible in most cases, but printers use much more energy. I can keep several libraries of ebooks in a suitcase, but the equivalent paper would take up several buildings. Ebooks can be searched quickly , whereas the paper books will take forever.

      There’s a place for a FEW paper books. They’re certainly useful when there’s no power, but the storage space cost is awful. They too need to be protected from moisture and mildew(and being eaten by various creatures).

      • I hear what you’re saying Mike but the greatest books I have are the little 4×6 inch books that used to be school readers from the 00s and Teens of the last century with “Treasure Island”, “Black Beauty” and other old titles among them. The TI one is so well-written and full of details that you’ll NEVER see in a modern printing that, read silently or aloud, you can actually hear the accent of the old pirate that narrates the story and all the others.

        OLD books are true treasures and stories they contain probably won’t seen in their original form in modern day versions.

  7. Seems wars/rumors of wars may erase the money printing deflationary affects on gold/silver.
    We still have not seen the euphoric blow off top that signals the end of a bull stock market.
    However, the signs are there that people who don’t normally trade are trading…a retired neighbor rambling excessively about the fun he was having using Robinhood, a hotel owner friend telling me how she and her son and her sister were having their own personal contest on Robinhood…and “it’s not gambling”, a merchandise that fell off the truck store owner talking to me about his success in trading for 5 minutes while I was checking out and he was running one of the registers, have all talked to me about their trading over the last couple of months. I’ve known all of these people for over ten years and none of them have ever talked about trading. So, it’s time to start watching for a euphoric blow off top.
    Perfect timing/pricing or not…it never hurts to hedge your investments long term with physical assets.

    • A contemporary version of Kennedy’s shoe shine boy. Kennedy left the market when the boy kept boasting about his investing success…

  8. George,
    It’s not less sustainable when all the goods, services, health resources, and jobs are here. It is far,far less sustainable in the boonies. Just everyone in my urban/suburban compact neighborhood has a productive garden that yields year round. A few have chicken condos. My garden yields just enough to last me throughout the year after stewing, pickling, canning and juicing the bounty. You don’t need a farm to farm. But you do need a city to live.

    • I will beg to differ with Mark. I don’t need a city to live. More people, more infectious encounters. Been doing it for more than two years already.

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