But not a lot of substantive change seen today.  My buddy (the major) and I were talking Friday, as friends of 65-years will do.  He was stuck in Seattle’s big city traffic enroute to guest lecture.  I was having a sip and reading my Kindle Fire HD 10, on the screen porche and listening to the wildlife.  Birds are awesome in East Texas this time of year.

I made a note to contrast noise floors people experience based on where they live.  My buddy was able to get great fish and chips on his way to the lecture.  I miss fish and chips terribly, but not brake lights, pot holes, a stadium tax, high local option sales taxes, gas that’s 80-cents a gallon higher than Texas, and more.  If you hadn’t sorted through the ramble, the first point this morning is about noise floors.  When you’re in the middle of the herd, it’s hard to figure out the agenda.

Out here, we chill and try to see probable futures. We told you last week, it was OBVIOUS that Trump (on advice of a very savvy Gen. Mattis) would hit the Russians when the markets were closed.  And sure enough, right on plan… Even the Washington Post had to admit that since then, “...not much has changed….”

(Continues below)


Still, if you are paying attention to signals down at the noise floor, you know the Russians have something up their sleeves.  Perhaps giving some high-performance torpedos to the Syrians, in order to attack the source of the cruise missiles.  No telling…yet.

But, perhaps not for several days, even a week, while they are reporting readiness for an international inspection team to come look at the “gas attack” site.  To be sure, there are claims that gas has been used 86-times in Syrian fighting. But, we agree with that report’s conclusion that the missile attack in response will do little (if anything) to change the trajectory of the Middle East.

  • Russia still views Syria as it’s “pet” regime.  Much as the U.S. holds that view of Israel, down the road a ways.
  • The Russians also have parked a chunk of their assets in Tartus, down the Syrian coast.
  • There may be future oil and gas to be had in the region.
  • There’s the internecine warfare within Islam, although Sunni’s are by far the majority with just over 68-percent.
  • And there’s the pending development of the Leviathan gas fields offshore from Lebanon.  In order to get to market cheaply, a pipeline to Europe makes sense.  And Syria, along with Turkey, are keys to the route.
  • The Neocons are still in power in the US State Department.  They’ve been playing a non-stop mantra of “Regime Change” for some decades.  You see the leftovers of the Project for a New American Century still clinging to their agenda now entrenched in the Deep State.

All of which leads us to intelligently look ahead.

When the alleged gas attack site is inspected, the Syrian military strike may appear.  In response to that, Russia will likely move into more (if not all) of Ukraine.

However, Ukrainian officials are trying to make small moves to push Russia to the East as we read in “Ukraine Interior Minister elaborates on plan to return occupied Donbas.”

What’s curious to watch is how Ukraine is talking-up punishing of “collaborators” (with the Russians).  Odd because something like 70-percent of the country speaks Russian and has since Catherine the Great put Ukraine under Moscow’s control.

Americans and other westerners often don’t understand Russia which has been a global power longer than the U.S.  In Catherine the Great’s time (which ended in 1796) Russia was a huge power seated in Moscow:

“In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars, and Russia colonized the territories of Novorossiya along the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas. In the west, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, ruled by Catherine’s former lover, king Stanis?aw August Poniatowski, was eventually partitioned, with the Russian Empire gaining the largest share. In the east, Russia started to colonize Alaska, establishing Russian America.”

Having dealt with the Turks in the past, the Russians continue to have nationalist dreams of restoring national spheres of influence.

Thus, when Russia makes its play, either directly in response to Western-proxy Ukrainian moves (Donbas), or whether indirectly through their Assad regime in Syria, such a move will happen when Western markets are at a crescendo high and set to decline, anyway.  Thus, the sense of Russian power would be amplified.

Vlad Putin promises “global chaos” if the West strikes again.  Note his use of the term “global” – which we take to read as “outside the Middle East.”

Did you happen to notice, just east of Turkey “Thousands of opposition supporters rally in Armenian capital?”  Not a big deal, but worth mentioning.

An attack, most likely by Syria – while U.S. markets are open – will probably be the next event in the center ring of the world circus.

Playing the market on the long side through here might make more sense using tight trailing stops.

Still Selling Warming

Our friends in Oklahoma had frost this morning, and here at UrbanSurvival’s bunker-in-the-woods, we were down to 36F overtnight.

So you can imagine our delight to read how “Global Warming” is still being touted on pages like this one.

The Atlantic currents are changing, says a German report that’s in Naure.  Everyone run from street!  Now the science folks are talking about another  “tipping point” and such…heard it all before, I’m afraid. Nothing’s tipped yet. When the sea level floods Wall Street (which was supposed to be an accomplished fact by now, I recall), please get back to us.

In the meantime, we will do some data retrieval because I can’t remember  a colder spring in our 15-years in the woods.  Or, maybe we’re just getting old (and cynical).

Record now north and near record cold here,” admits the Chicago Trib this morning.  Earlier this month, in an editorial, the paper assured readers “Climate change is a real, perilous phenomenon that the planet would be foolish to ignore.”

They stopped short of saying this is all about monetizing climate because we’ve run  out of easier things to monetize.  Besides, we have 7-billion neighbors to deal with.  Need a powerful head trip to keep everyone in line!

OK, monetizing climate is probably better than global anarchy…or is it?

Bad Food Alerts:  Eggs, Romaine

Notes from the Food and Drug Administation:

Through an abundance of caution Rose Acre Farms of Seymour, Indiana is voluntarily recalling 206,749,248 eggs because they have the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella Braenderup, an organism which can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems. Healthy individuals infected with Salmonella Braenderup can experience fever, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare circumstances, infection with Salmonella Braenderup can result in the organism getting into the bloodstream and producing more severe illnesses such as arterial infections (i.e., infected aneurysms), endocarditis and arthritis.

The eggs were distributed from the farm in Hyde County, North Carolina and reached consumers in the following states: Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia through retail stores and restaurants via direct delivery.”

And CDC has a warning out about chopped Romaine lettuce:

Information collected to date indicates that chopped romaine lettuce from the Yuma, Arizona growing region could be contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 and could make people sick. At this time, no common grower, supplier, distributor, or brand has been identified..”

No Caesar Salad for breakfast, huh?

Economic Data

Just out from Census, fresh retail sales data:

And then we have the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturfing report,, which says in part (from here):

“Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 15.8, remained firmly in positive territory, although its seven-point decline from its March level pointed to a somewhat slower pace of growth. Similarly, the new orders index and the shipments index suggested ongoing, albeit more measured, growth, with the first index falling eight points to 9.0 and the second declining ten points to 17.5. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories moved higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and significantly longer workweeks. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received remained elevated. Firms’ optimism about the six-month outlook waned sharply, with the index for future business conditions plunging twenty-six points to its lowest level in more than two years. “

The Fed’s Industrial Production and Factory Utilizationa will be out tomorrow morning.  Fed Beige Book comes out Wednesday, but we’re in the “working part of the month” now.  Third weeks of the month are a good time to sit back ands chill.

Hardly Worth Mentioning

I think we’re the only site reminding people that ABC’sa George Stephanopolous who interviews the Trump-bashing former FBI director this week is a former Bill Clinton protoge.

Sit back and be amazed by the number of re-writes of the “Here comes the Comey bash.”

Trump lawyers will be in court today trying to satop the Mueller/Just Us department’s raid on Trump’s personal lawyer’s office.

That then president Obama and then head of Just Us, Loretta Lynch endangered the Clinton email probes is less than surprising.

We are still shocked that an “investigation” into that didn’t lead to an orange jump suit for several people.  But they didn’t spend the time  the Pit Mueller has on Trump.

But no, the email paper-over has nothing to do with bashing Trump, so the left-wing media’s cover-up and deification of the democrats continues.  Whatever.

For the Day?

Dow Futures are holding +150’sh on the strong econ data 45-minutes to the open.  So we’re thinking this will be “just another Monday.”  A surge at the open on the “Syrian victory” nonsense.

Eyes Open:  Based on our work on “murder cycles” we’re about due (this week or next?) for another mass casualty event, hints the data.  The gun-grab agenda has quieted, so it’s time for another clang on that bell to see how Pavlov’s Population can be stampeded next.


Mor’on the ‘morrow. (Punctuation optional.)

Coping: A Case of Co-Dreaming
Coping: With a New Form of Art (Part 2)