GDP, CFNAI, Minutes, Holiday Maker-Mania

I guess we should get the economics of life out of the way first.  This being Thursday, the new unemployment filings are out:

What matters most to us, here lately, is the state-drilldown into UI filings:

GDP is holding up but remember when inflation is running “officially” in 5+ percent range, we get a lot of distortion out here in Realville.  For example, in this chart, Food is up 7.7 percent.

The Market was set (earlier) to rally strongly today.  Much of which is based on Budget hype.  Which is still overhanging the country. (Sword of Dumbocles.) And a freeze on Federal spending looms.

Meantime, hundreds of headlines about state budgets and “progress.”  But we wonder “Just how contagious is madness?” as Massachusetts eyes in-state tuition for the “undocumented.”  Still, we expect democrats will be exposed between now and 2024 as Accounting Imbeciles.  As more and more POCs get “Newsomized.”  Promised the world (and cash) and then being told, in effect, “just kidding.”  (Delivering free lunch promises is a bitch. But we’re talking the slow-learner’s party here.)

Back to GDP

Let’s try to focus on one-thing-at-a-time, shall we?  (Lion’s Mane is not exactly Adderall…)

What’s alleged: 

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to the “second” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. The GDP estimate for the first quarter was revised up 0.2 percentage point from the “advance” estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to inventory investment.”

Lemme see: Food up 7.7% and real growth of 1.3.  Tell me how this fairytale ends?

Already, we’re thinking about how this will change the Velocity of Money at M2. Defined as the relationship between M2 money stocks and GDP.

CFNAI 

Chi-Fed’s National Activity Indicator is worth penciling into Ure thinking:

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.07 in April, up from –0.37 in March.”

Thus, spiketh yon punchbull.

Fed Meetings notes released Wednesday give you a sense of what the policymaker view of the economy was back in March:

“The pace of increases in total nonfarm payroll employment slowed in March but was still robust, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate for African Americans fell to 5.0 percent, and the jobless rate for Hispanics dropped to 4.6 percent. The aggregate measures of both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio edged up. The private-sector job openings rate—as measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey—moved down markedly during February and March but remained high.”

Damn shame we are in May and days from June.  In an age of instant one-to-billion communications it’s inexcusable that financial data is misered out at a snails pace.  It’s what happens when pseudo-Government Bureaucracies, not The People, are in control. Congress abdicated in 1913 and there’s a case we haven’t had legit government ever since the banker’s put on the Great American Balls Yoke.  But, don’t start me. Yoke’s on us.

Market Problem

We’ve been frankly too damn busy to day trade, here lately.  So, we’ll suffer through 17.85 percent gains for the first 5-months of the year and make a decision about whether to roll short from the top of today’s edition of Gullible’s Travels.

Tactically, it’s a mess for us poker-playing (gamblers not “investors”) sorts. This market is ALL about buying low and selling high and cutting every trade that “goes turkey” before it’s down $50 bucks. On the other hand, there is NOTHING that pays as well as self-discipline. (True of Life in general, as well.)

Our crackpot thinking is the happy talk will last till this afternoon and maybe into “Outta here Friday.”  At which point we MAY go short over the weekend since while a budget breakthrough is possible, there’s still Taiwan and Ukraine with trade and nukes on the line. Three more days of peace?  There’s a bet, for you.

Still, if you hold Bullish Thoughts about America, try to focus on the Fools on the Hill who are funding woke idiocy in new racism (masked as “equity” and “diversity.”  You want to buy some of that?  Have fun.

America Held Ransom

Think I’m kidding?  Have you read stories like Social Security for oldest, poorest could be at risk in debt default?  Free-lunchers grandstanding is not something Ure average megalomaniac just wakes up cured from.

The ripples of fiscal incompetence continue as Dow futures dip after Fitch puts U.S. credit ratings on ‘ratings watch negative’ as debt-ceiling deadline nears.

But here’s the Gods-honest truth:  These (assholes) in DC don’t even read what they vote on.  It’s a Moses-sized miracle to think they can tell time, either.

The Good Doctor Speaks

One of our pals – a highly respected (and thus well paid) doc we know sent us an “explainer” of why Covid has been swept under the rug:

How authorities are manipulating excess deaths in the UK, Canada and Australia – The Expose (expose-news.com)

Of course, there is the “little problem” that the latest variant is rumored mRNA vax resistant.  Called Arcturus New COVID variant accounts for 1/10th of infections | CW39 Houston.  this one is a quick-killer.  My consigliere lost a friend in just a few days (4-5).  Apparently acts like an allergy, so don’t delay getting thee to the doc.

One other (more encouraging) health item: Genetic variant protective against Alzheimer’s has beneficial effects on amyloid-beta metabolism (medicalxpress.com).  We’ll let you know when the closest APP A673T genetic variant store opens up.

Muck Boot Time

Hand me the bullshit sifter, would yah?

The Adventures of Paxton is a new series playing here in Texas.  Where, in one role, he plays the hero Texas AG Paxton sues Mayorkas, Garland over CBP One App. But in the other, he’s among the worst of the bad guys: Investigators detail years of alleged misconduct by Texas AG Ken Paxton in stunning House committee hearing. Near as we can figure, this will depend on how many woke have moved to Texas and how many Soros funded (*through proxies) are whining because they can’t win on policy.  We’ll watch the next episode and read you in.

A profound lesson about putting your feet on the furniture: Jan. 6 rioter who put his feet on desk in Pelosi office sentenced to 4.5 years in prison. No telling how the Hive would handle not clearing the dishes.

Ron Deglitchus: Ron DeSantis gambled on Elon Musk and went bust | Semafor

Who needs EMP when you have an Internet?  US, Microsoft warn Chinese hackers attacking ‘critical’ infrastructure as Beijing denies allegations – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (hongkongfp.com)

While Taiwan simmers, we told you earlier this week about the super typhoon that was about to hit Guam.  Now we know: After Typhoon Mawar Battered Guam, ‘What Used to Be a Jungle Looks Like Toothpicks’ (voanews.com). Taiwan next?

No, of course it wasn’t a Neocon-turned NeoLib trying to light up Mushrooms: US believes Kremlin drone attack was likely orchestrated by Ukraine: NYT.  (They’ll say damn near anything, won’t they?  (Ure task is to figure out whether I refer to our own lying government, NYT, or Ukrainian government.  The correct answer is “Yes!”)

How Kid Korera (chief of the NorKs) ruined Memorial Day weekend: South Korean and US troops hold live-fire drills near border with North Korea (irishexaminer.com).  PsyOps for one and all.  How many leaves were called back?

Crypto Hype files:  Still illegal in China which makes Breaking: China CCTV Removes Crypto Footage Retweeted by CZ (coingape.com) kinda interesting. Meanwhile, BTC was $26,211 – we are looking for the $24,000s sooner than later, but the bulls are…full of themselves.

Tina’s Gone – here comes End-On Marketing:  Terribly saddened by the passing of Tina Turner after a long illness, we are now braced for a serious round of End-On-Marketing.  This is where anyone wanting to further their own career/income will offer Tributes and Praises (however sincere) and it becomes an identification and reinforcement in the target (weak) minded.

Which comes down to a National Gush Festival.  Damn shame the dead don’t get their due while present, ain’t it?  Celebrities and the White House pay tribute to Tina Turner.

Did I ever mention seeing Ike & Tina (back when Ike was touring, too) at the Black & Tan (or, was it the 410 Supper Club/Cabaret?) in Seattle ’68-ish.  Brother George was working at the Urban Contemp (“the soul of the City”) station as an engineer at the time.  Whole Seattle Black Music scene was to die for coming up.  Hendrix, Quincy and everyone from the Isley’s to…Carla Thomas  touring in…. long, long ago.  Tina will be missed.  but living on at +95 dB in our little home studio most Fridays at scotch or vodka time.  What’s Love got to do with it, anyway?

Where were we?

ATR Maker-Mania Weekend

I’m trying to nail down the “simplified, lighter” home electronics bench.  Which right now has two ‘scopes, Rhode frequency standard, desoldering station, SMT microscope plus enough ESR meters,, VTVMs and AC voltmeters to choke a horse or load a pickup.

I picked up an inexpensive bench meter this week (this one) hoping to simplify the shelving to allow more workspace. That should replace a ton of stuff.  And going to a cheap VFO (instead of the suitcase-sized Rhode frequency standard) will do for 98 percent of bench use.  (Frequency spotting for alignment of radios.)  Does it matter if I can effectively differentiate between a -132 dbm noise floor and a -137 dbm floor?  (Answer: Not so much, usually…)

I took a “before” so only fair to take an “after” when the revisions are made. A decent sized spectrum analyzer would be nice.  Owon makes a dandy such unit, but at $2,799 the question “How many spectrum readings will I make between 74 and daisy-food? lingers.

Still, if you’re looking for a spectrum analyzer, remember to get one in the 2 GHz range in order to cover the (Skinwalker Ranch portal or anomaly frequencies in the 1.4-1.6 GHz range.


My neighbor brought over a water tank top of obscure origins.  Wondered if I could 3D him a copy since this strong Texas UV had eaten the top of the original.  Damned if it wasn’t just over the max permitted on the CR-10.  So thinking about a larger 3D printer.  Bigger Printer!!! 16″, please.


Showers through the area last night – glad the lawn was well-mowed and edged in advance.  The month continues cooler than last year.  So far this month the mean temp is 71.8.  Last May it was 75.3.  Park the climate pitches at the door. Weather change, foo.


G2’s “Virginia adventure” is over. He flew out of Dulles Wednesday enroute Dallas.  Came back on American via South Carolina.

WHERE he missed a flight.

“How the hell did you do that?  A million miles in the airline days and never missed a flight once? Jeez.”

Dad, they had just started to board and I had to pee – and it was just across the hall.  When I got back, the door was already closed and the plane was pushing back….”

He decided to sit in the bar and have a cold one, or three for the 2-hour wait.

I called him several times to remind him of the new boarding time. “What time is it, son?”

Dad, you don’t need to call me to keep reminding me.  You’re treating me like I’m an idiot…

“Well, son, today’s data says…”

But I have a checkbox filled you don’t...so there!”

Lesson: Sons will always compete with dads at some level, lol. But it does get a wee strange when they grow up a bit.

Off to get a crown installed at the dentist’s place.  Nitrous, anyone?  Why, just like 3Chuck, I’m going to a coronation at the dentist’s office!  My crown was cheaper.  (No one in Palestine, Texas kneels when I go by, either.  Memo must not be out yet…)

Write when boarding begins,

George@Ure.net

35 thoughts on “GDP, CFNAI, Minutes, Holiday Maker-Mania”

  1. TEF – T minus 1 and oooff looks like the everything crash will not be occurring on this particular watch – maybe an overnight false flag? Naw – nice try and here’s your participation ribbon.

  2. Missed one flight ’cause he had to pee. Put 2 or 3 away while waiting 2 hours for the next flight. I think you ought to see if Harbor Fright (or wherever the nearest Spencer’s Gift store may be) has a “Trucker’s Friend” on the shelf and gift it to him for Father’s Day even if he ain’t one yet. Tell him “And just wait till they put YOU on water pills!”.

  3. Check out the TinySA. Has replaced a bunch of things around here. Has sweep function and various modulations. A boon for quick alignment touch-ups. Many videos online. Also larger version available.

  4. “Lemme see: Food up 7.7% and real growth of 1.3. Tell me how this fairytale ends?”

    consider this to.. the average raise and employer gives.. if they give one.. no one around here has seen an increase if over three years..
    so if they give a two percent increase and the average change in the economy is four percent.. you lost two percent of your income..
    but then they can’t keep up with inflation if they did.. then we would be argentina or zimbabwe..
    someone with lets say a million dollars in the bank.. in the last two years has lost fifty percent of that.. the bank still shows the million but the value of it has dropped…
    our home taxes doubled.. the monthly tax intake is more than the house payment.. its all in the business model..

  5. RE: China hacking U.S. critical infrastructure. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) web site posted a more detailed account of what generated the multi-agency, multi-national cybersecurity warning:

    https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news/us-and-international-partners-release-advisory-warning-prc-state-sponsored-cyber-activity

    Summary in a nutshell, “A PRC state-sponsored actor is living off the land, using built-in network tools to evade our defenses and leaving no trace behind,” said Rob Joyce, NSA Cybersecurity Director. IOW, we know China’s already exploited inherent vulnerabilities and avenues into our critical infrastructures (e.g. cyber, water, power, comms, defense, system of government), but we aren’t quite sure where they’ve been, what they did while they were there, and where they’ll go next.

    “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” – Sun Tzu

    Brings to mind China’s recent balloon fest and lyrics from the 1983 Nena classic ‘99 Luftballons:

    99 red balloons
    Floating in the summer sky
    Panic bells, it’s red alert
    There’s something here from somewhere else
    The war machine springs to life
    Opens up one eager eye
    Focusing it on the sky
    The 99 red balloons go by

    I’m pretty convinced the balloons were a Chinese head fake, getting ‘Merica to hastily reveal multiple communications and intelligence capabilities, which were summarily noted for possible future reference. Because when you think about it, it’s hard to coordinate defense activities if you can’t effectively and rapidly communicate.

    • “Summary in a nutshell, “A PRC state-sponsored actor is living off the land, using built-in network tools to evade our defenses and leaving no trace behind,” said Rob Joyce, NSA Cybersecurity Director.”

      The hacker exploited something (probably a remote utility like gas or water facility) with access to a computer “up the ladder,” then backdoored that system and used it to send a worm through the downstream infrastructure controllers. Done right, nobody knows what’s infected or how, until the hacker hits the switch.

      We have a “doomsday system” in place which can permanently disconnect us from the ROW — Thing is, it is rendered useless if we’re compromised on this side of the disconnects…

  6. “Massachusetts eyes in-state tuition for the “undocumented.” ”

    For whatever reason southern states are transporting newcomers north as fast as they can. Like it or not the newcomers are here to stay.

    Educating the newcomers so they can participate is the best option.

    Musk was a newcomer, got an education and made it further than any old-stock American in his generation.

  7. WOW! We’ve got a heckuva cell moving over us out here. It’s like night time outside and the rain with an occasional hail ball has finally started again. I’d say it’s about 50% water above ground between our Internet antennas. We weren’t supposed to start getting any until day after tomorrow but who listens to the weather forecasts anyway? Our seasons have been displaced further down the calendar by about 2 to 3 months over the past 25 years or so.

    Makes me want to dig out all the cinnamon roll tubes and bake ’em. Need comfort food on days like this.

    • dam now I want to bake cinnamon rolls lol..drizzle a little cream cheese frosting on them yum

      • Decided to heat up the peach cobbler instead. Grand kid and I had that and ice cream for lunch. Really hit the spot on the last day of school.

  8. “Apparently acts like an allergy, so don’t delay getting thee to the doc.”

    And with the original Covid, going to the doc got you exactly nowhere, as most docs spouted the IHS and WHO recommended treatment, “call me when you die”. Anybody think this one will be much different?

    • If it acts like an allergy, treat it as such. If the doc will prescribe something OTC, then just bypass the doc. You know your body better than anyone(I’d hope). In a real crisis – worse than the “pandemic”, there won’t be enough docs around and movement controls will be attempted again. Most likely, those of us who had a run-in with the original covid and got over it will be much more resistant to any variant, unless immune compromised somehow.

      Best of luck to all of us. Study practical medicine – it’s not that difficult. Learning and practicing the art is more challenging, but at least you’ll have something to work with.

    • lol lol
      they interviewed a little girl a while back asking what she thought of it..
      her response was it’s disgusting..our resident realtor says that’s the smell of money..lol lol
      I’m sure it is when a bunk on a bunkbed rents for 2 grand a month or is that a week lol lol shifting in the grocery Isles lol

      • That’s what I’ve always said about that smell but it’s only when it originates from the back end of my livestock!

  9. Just before the close yesterday my T.I. Scientific said that the NASDAQ100 was going up tomorrow.., so I jumped in – but with just half my usual options play., wasn’t thoroughly convinced.
    – Did you see that !! Nvidia released their report – they have added over $200 billion to their valuation – it is the largest guidance ever issued from a mega-corp.., and the NASDAQ100 launched !
    – I just got out when the NASDAQ100 went up over 300 points [ 2.3% ] Wished I had entered my usual options play ! .., but still, not too bad at all.
    – The DJIA is down over 100. This is all a high-tech move., and mainly A.I. driven.

  10. Under International Law [ or any law you so choose ] – does the deliberate military attack on a foreign powers physical assets constitute an Act of War?

  11. Psssssst, hey Buddy just heard from an old friend (Mr Market) and he said one thing to me Chief…He said exactly what Tina says in opening line of this live show…boom shockalockla boom !

    https://youtu.be/REju34ycrTk

    Mr Market said “I wanna take you HIGHER” , and well shit G – I never go against Mr Market. So blow off top it is – timing I gotz no-eye-deer, so take it one month at a time, Bullish Call Spreads on the NASDAQ and SPY.
    Select Puts..just rolled out of weekly Exp. PEP Puts on the MRI Sell recomendation last Friday the 19th..VERY profitable.
    BUD still an easy Short as well.
    Also Shorting TGT – dumbasses at Target C – level, going WOKE hard in the face of the Tranny Fluid debacle/fiasco/clusterFck. Easy peasy leomsquessy even a part timer can profit of those geniuses. DU-OOOh!

    Hell after seeing FORD’s rainbow painted F-150 add – looks like Ford going WOKE..rebranding as FORG I quess (Found On Road Gay) bwahahahahah you know ole Henry be spinning at about 10,000 rpm, in his grave 6 foot under.

  12. Re: “Holiday-Maker Mania”
    feat. The Emperor Complex

    Folks,

    Looking for cozy digs for a long weekend getaway? Opportunity knocks with word yesterday from “Tass”. Crimea plans to sell off President Zelensky’s “apartment” in Yalta to help fund the special military operation.

    An old “Reuters” article on the penthouse suite may not likely see light of day in politically correct circles. Location, location, location! Yes, folks, the Emperors House residential complex is located right next door to Livadia Palace, final abode of the last Tsar and host to FDR at the famous Yalta Conference carving up territory at the close of WW2.

    Apparently the oligarch-banker to the presidential property purchase a decade ago took his civic responsibilities seriously. He is reported to have acted as an election day moniter for polling violations in the president’s home region.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20190501094956/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-zelenskiy-property-e-idUSKCN1S7373

  13. I don’t think China will be considering taking Taiwan this weekend. Typhoon Mawar just rolled over Guam and is headed near Taiwan come Sun & Monday. They should have called the storm ‘Mower’ as that is apparently what it did to Guam. Worst typhoon in decades there.

    As for that new ‘killer variant’ of Covid that is supposedly mRNA VAX resistant…. One word:
    IVERMECTIN. Get thee some, and use it early if you suspect infection. Stopped my Covid in 12 hours. Ham friend and wife traveled to mainland and came back with Covid. I’m planning a trip in June, and I will be ‘prepped’ with a dose of Ivermectin in advance of the aircraft ‘shared air’ exposure.

    Good Move to dump the Rhode ‘suitcase’ RF generator. That little VFO/RF generator IS attractive… and it doubles as a QRP transceiver. What more could you ask for? Now for a spectrum analyzer, I have an Anritsu M2721A I got used on eBay, and also a small ‘TinySA’ but it doesn’t cover up to 1.6 GHz. But there is a new one… the TinySA ULTRA that goes up to 5.3GHz that would be perfect for the UAP phenomenon:
    https://tinyurl.com/3zc3h7bn

    Keep up the good work, George. We will have you down to my closet-sized workbench in short order!

  14. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just added $7 billion to his net worth after AI frenzy drives the chipmaker’s stock to its biggest 1-day market value gain in history.
    Nvidia went public in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble at a valuation of $626 million.. Since then, Nvidia’s stock price has appreciated 152,766%,sending its market valuation to just under $1 trillion.
    Nvidia stock soared as much as 29%, adding more than $200 billion to its valuation, after the company reported a blockbuster earnings report that showed the hype in generative artificial intelligence is translating into big revenue gains.

  15. “Dad, you don’t need to call me to keep reminding me. You’re treating me like I’m an idiot…”
    “Well, son, today’s data says…”
    “But I have a checkbox filled you don’t…so there!”

    dam that sounds like a conversation I had with one of my children lol

  16. “Did I ever mention seeing Ike & Tina (back when Ike was touring, too) at the Black & Tan (or, was it the 410 Supper Club/Cabaret?) in Seattle ’68-ish. ”

    one of the guys living in our spare room was visiting with an old high-school buddy of his yesterday..laughing and reminiscing about days gone by..didn’t think a thing at all about it.. we eat meals at the table and ha e table talk..and he started talking about his old high-school run around buddy and the crazy stuff they did as kids.
    then he said his friend was a singer or something. that’s nice what’s his name bob Dylan lol so one day will some old guy show up to see his high-school friend.. im a fan of his.. but didn’t have a clue that our guy knew him lol..how small the world is..

  17. Locally, the price of diesel has dipped below regular unleaded gasoline. I went to Chick-fil-a after work the other day. The drive-through was deserted. My list of declining economic indicators is growing.

    • You must live next door to the refinery. The delivery charges are keeping the diesel prices suspended well above the gas around here. Not that I care right now, though, as the truck’s been in the doc’s care for a week now getting new joints, hubs and having a curious coolant hemorrhage treated. Went to see if they would, perhaps, release the old girl today but they’re out until Tuesday. This is the only “doc” that I trust now days so I think she’s in good hands.

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