Futuring: CPI and Jobless Claims

Most people miss the whole point of “reading the news.”

Your “average news consumer” isn’t sure what they’re really after.  But some consultancies (Magid, I think it was, way back in the day) taught “Health, Heart, and Pocketbook” as key editor story-selection criteria.

The A.P. also did some research (I was on their Broadcast Association publications committee briefly):  They found Weather was really important, too.

Little of that early “news consumer” work really focused on The Future much, but stories with good “looking-ahead” angles are popular now.

Rate of Change Paradox

In Charles Babbage’s book on economics of machinery and manufacturing (1832), we realize that in almost 200 years, the fundamentals of being a human haven’t really changed much.  People were generally eating two or three meals a day, sleeping 6-10 hours, and getting to work took 15 to 30 minutes typically.  Though walking…

The first patent for commercial toilet paper and dispenser came along in 1883.  Radio came along 20-years later. So, yes, there has been major progress, but at a price.

With most “exciting innovation” there’s little attention paid to the long-term effects.  Toilet paper needs biomass.  Radio and communications (along with electric lighting, sets up the energy addiction.  Such that for each “advance” we can, upon inspection, find a drawback.

Scant attention is paid to this formula as new inventions come along.  Since initially there’s profit. But, often in the long-term, there’s a downside cost.

Which has what to do with this morning’s Consumer Price Inflation data Just out?

Let’s Roll Data First

From the Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since a 5.4-percent increase for the period ending August 2008.

The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, increasing
7.3 percent in May. This increase accounted for about one-third of the
seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in May, the same increase as in April. The energy index was unchanged in May, with a decline in the gasoline index again offsetting increases in the electricity and natural gas indexes.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.7 percent in May after
increasing 0.9 percent in April. Many of the same indexes continued to increase, including used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, airline fares, and apparel. The index for medical care fell slightly, one of the few major component indexes to decline in May.

Inflation is (picking up on our initial comment) very much akin to a weather forecast.

There are two areas worth a few minutes of reflection.  The first is Ure’s handy-dandy $100 table.  Look up a month-on-month inflation rate on the top line and drop down to see what it will pencil out to compounded over 1, 5, 10, or 20-years.

See the 0.6% column?  Something $100 today will cost (on average) $107.44 in a year.

The screamer in the report is Gasoline up 56.2% in the past year.  Which will take 60-months to be fully realized with knock-on effects throughout the economy.  Everything from commuting costs to freight rates.  Here we go…up, up, and away…

Practical Applications

Say you read this morning’s Consumer Price report and you remark in your head “Say, inflation is really coming along…”

Then you look at the price of Lumber over on FinViz and you see lumber down 0.77% for the day.  I mentioned that lumber (from its recent spike top) did an Elliott 1 down, seemed to be putting in a bounce Wave 2.  With the chart pattern indicating a possible Wave 3 down in coming weeks, you now have valuable insight into whether to buy or build a new home.

If you believe that inflation is just a passing thing (bad bet, but it’s your dough) you might hold off on home-buying.  BUT given the look-ahead from CPI, and given lumber will still be expensive (and the largest cost element in single family detached homes) buying sooner than latter makes sense every day.

Because mortgage rates are essentially “free” when you transition from super-cheap rates to where rates could be in 5, 10, or 20-years.

A new $35,000 car today is likely to be $37,600 a year from now.  Or more – depends on Fed overshoot.

New Jobless Claims

Lies were screaming out of the CROOKED FINANCIAL PRESS this morning.  “Jobless claims likely fell for Sixth Straight Week” blared one.

Lie?  Yes.  Jobless claims only fell last week if you follow “seasonally adjusted” numbers.  Which makes sense ONLY in specific cases where Seasonality impacts.  Fall crop production is different than Winter crops.  But applying S.A. to weekly data sets is little more than averaging; designed to bullshit people into believing a political narrative.

So, stick to the yellow highlighted ACTUALS not the S.A. numbers when served the newly unemployed claims.  Things are even better than adjusted numbers.

See the reality?  Sure looks like (when taken along with the inflation data) like an overheated economy could be just ahead.

Useful Guidance

Here’s a report (surprisingly) from CNN summarizing: Rising prices: Companies struggle to restock their inventories post pandemic.  Wage demands rise and here comes higher prices.

Jabber Talky

China Returns to Its Strict Covid Restrictions to Fight a New Outbreak, reports MSN.

Down the road from us, reports are that Variant D is in Texas now.  Just in time for today’s announcement from the feds on whether healthcare workers can be directed to jab or jump.  New OSHA guidance says “non-binding” – which if true begs the question “If it’s not binding why spend taxpayer money since everyone in the world has an opinion now?”

The strategy we’ll be watching for is IF employers in any field can dictate firing for failure to take and EXPERIMENTAL, NON-TRIALED drug?  (If they can do that, they essentially move government into power over who lives or dies…)

We remain in the “control group” and holed-up in the Outback.  We’re waiting for the national media fever to break.  Speaking of which…

In Ure Shorts

National Political Correctness Disease continues to spread unchecked.  Witness Slate‘s “Elin Hilderbrand and Casey McQuiston delete lines in novels due to social media outrage. “  The good news about political correctness disease is major companies are now self-identifying.  As we swear-off and change brands, our household spending has dropped.  As things like the occasional Coke have come off the list, lol.  Don’t buy PC-BS – save a bundle.  No more pro sports, less online…

Lost in the Mental Fog is Slow Joe’s Open Border.  Migrant encounters rise above 180K in May as border crisis continues.  Near as we can figure, the Kamunist’s efforts down south will have absolutely no impact on the problem.  Optics only…which is the plan, isn’t it?  Oh, and speaking of press bias, how about this Tweet?

Elsewhere in the Thursday clown parade: Spokesperson Responds To Claim Meghan, Harry Didn’t Get Queen’s Permission For Baby’s Name.  YGTBSM, this is newsworthy?

2022 Auto Hype begins:  Toyota VP says new Tundra pickup ‘will blow you away’.  Oh?  Is it free?  Got chips to make it?

Wait!  Cramer said what?  Cramer says meme stocks ‘should be offered at the casino’ instead of Wall StreetWTF Wall St. IS THE Casino, dude. Ban naked short selling of all financial products and we can talk.

Sweat Equity

Gets me to a point which is coming up on ShopTalk Sunday this week:  The highest wages you will ever make generally come from personal sweat equity.  Especially when you apply a thin layer of sweat to your own property.  More on this Sunday.  But, if you are planning to become a home owner, the Big Reality is coming along.

Quiet weekend for the Ure’s ahead: BBQ and Lawnmower call now that the rain has stopped for a week.  Which means back to water the garden.  Still waiting for the first tomatoes to grace the plate.

About time for summer doldrums, isn’t it?  BTC $37,664 and S&P about flat at click-time.  Need more coffee to make it through this one.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

42 thoughts on “Futuring: CPI and Jobless Claims”

  1. Pathetic bullsheet as usual . Old salty moriarty and an assortment of salesman will whip up a yellow dog frenzy . Throw in some currency treason , ccccooovid , war and alien invasion and thar she blows the cow jones !!!

    Reply
      • Len Da-mentia… Babbles on about every OTHER financial ‘guru’ he reads with no relevance to this site. I don’t even try to interpret him anymore. Pass… on to the next commenter.

      • I have tentatively classified Len’s obscure references as authentic Aussie frontier gibberish.
        Let’s try an analysis: Could “sheetcon” mean “bitcoin” ? Cryptos are definitely the greatest of digital snake oils. Say, this may spawn a whole new field in applied linguistic analysis. How do I apply for a grant? We can call it Progressive Gibberish Analysis. I’m not saying that Len is a progressive, I’m suggesting his linguistic condition may be. I eagerly await Len’s rebuttal.

    • LD,
      some of us are so desperate for attention that we’ll settle for negative attention…your inner child keeps threatening some wrongful and/or violent act, better check yourself out, see what a shrink says…

      Reply
  2. CPI. I mostly use paper plates and cups. The Dixie cups have become so cheaply constructed they leak faster than a failed MI dam. I couldn’t believe it. I tried “reaching out” to Dixie and there’s no easy way. Perhaps Dixie hates customers.. I’m being forced to switch to foam.

    Dixie is a U.S. company like Boeing. And like Boeing Dixie can’t even perform the primary task, keep a paper cup full for the length of a flight.

    Reply
    • I watch as our household trash piles up more quickly all the time. We’ve been using paper plates for years (and, yes, I’ve noticed lately that they don’t hold up as well as they used to) and there’s so much food container “stuff” that fills the trash can so quickly I hate to think what volume goes into the county land fill here on an increasing basis. I have to admit to some laziness that is a significant contributor to this pattern but at least the eating utensils are all of the more non-disposable varieties. We tend to re-use food containers that take the place of the Tupperware containers of old until they wear out but they do have a fairly short life span when used continuously.

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  3. George,

    Read an interesting article, believe it was on Revolver News. The article addressed the fact that Blackrock, Vanguard, etc. are coming in and bidding 20 to 50% above average consumers for new homes in new developments. Blackrock just recently bought an entire development of 124 new homes in Texas. Plans to sell later, hardly.

    The intention is to make these SFR (single family rentals). SFR eliminates one’s ability to purchase a home at a reasonable price and through time you build equity or wealth. If you are reduced to having to rent for shelter, you are basically becoming a peasant living on the overlord’s estate. It is just another way that through the Fed’s money printing The Great Reset removes individual rights and makes the population submit to the will of those in power. In the case of states such as Texas, it allows the PTB (powers that be) to move in entire communities of people that will vote along the lines of the ruling class paradigm, thus insuring their continuation in power.

    Same goes with Bill Gates, etc. buying agricultural land. If Gates and his one world government clan gain control of enough farm/ranch land, they control the food supply. Control housing, food, and medical and congratulations we live in a feudal system once again. One will have to play nice so that the Robber Barons allow you just to exist. This will be easy once the U.S. brings out its’ own digital currency. Be a good little peasant in order to accumulate enough social credits to be allowed to buy food.

    Good to live rural, where at least I can grow food for the time being. That is until they decide your farm and mine should be communal property.

    Reply
    • The movement of which you speak is Neo-Feudalism. It goes hand in hand with the fact that the American experiment went awry from the European system and the Western 600 families that came out of the Middle Ages as the Masters of Europe. Now those families are owners of multi-nationals and are in the midst of the reset to the established order. The big fight is about Eastern power holders and Western power holders. Countries are just toys for these people, their agenda has been global from the time of the Crusades.

      Reply
    • In a round about fashion, you are renting the “land” whether or not you “own” it. You have to pay property taxes for the privilege of owning it! At least you don’t have to share the spoils of your land…..yet.

      Reply
    • FED Coin is next month.

      And even though people say they don’t want social credit, they love the stuff.

      Reply
  4. The hail storm that blew through 4 weeks ago devastated my garden. If I’m lucky I might get a tomato before it gets too hot for fruit to set. The only win this year is my compost worms are going gangbusters turning household food and plant waste into dirt.

    Take the wins where you can get ’em.

    73

    Reply
  5. I am quite the libertarian so this question “IF employers in any field can dictate firing”. I believe if we work for someone, then we have an agreement that either of us can break at any time based on agreements made on starting the employment. I have quit jobs for my own reasons and most of the time provided at least two weeks notice. I have had to fire people in the past because they don’t follow our HR policies or reduced work or for other reasons. If you cannot live with one companies policies go somewhere else or work for yourself. Employers that have to many policies that employees cannot live with will get lower quality employees and eventually will affect the company success. Of course almost all those policies allow exceptions, most of the time your value to the company affects if you can negotiate such things. I don’t believe government should mandate that I keep working for any company once I start, and in same vein, I don’t believe the employer should be required to retain people they no longer want. Freedom of association should mean something.

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  6. One of the BAD things that Obama did wrt the 2008-2010 housing collapse was that he and the Democratic Congress allowed LARGE INVESTORS (ie: like Blackrock) that had access to easy and unlimited Wall Street Money to come in and bid and buy up to hundreds of forclosed homes at a time (overall they bought up about 80% of the foreclosed homes in middle class areas I have read). They allowed them to bid for them as a group before individuals, even individual investors, could come in to try to buy them one at a time since they were NEVER put out for public sale.

    Do the Democrats HATE actual people owning their own homes? Or is making people permanent RENTERS part of their political philosophy?

    With the 2008-2010 collapse LOTS of individuals SHOULD have been able to get into their lifetime dream of buying a home since prices were down in many places 50%. The policies of Obama and the Democrats though were determined to NOT LET THAT HAPPEN!! Only their “friends” on Wall Street were to be allowed to buy the majority of those foreclosed houses, so they could then make outsized profits via Rents later.

    Does anyone wonder anymore why Wall Street contributes 80%+ of it’s campaign money to the Democrats these days (some reports I have read actually put it at over 90%)?

    Democrats supporting the “Workers” of America? They may have claimed that decades ago and it might have been partially accurate back then but today the Democratic Party IS mostly the party of Wall Street and those who want to suck off the Public Tit.

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    • Hello S-2, Your comment gets to to point of how even the ability to purchase a home is in fact under the control of the wealthy of America’s CORPORTOCRACY.
      At 75 I have seen this country pushed into to a unrecognizable morass. My greatest concern is what kind of country and governance will my children and grand children endure before there is a hopeful return to sanity. Thank you
      BE WELL TO ALL WHO PASS HERE

      Reply
    • “Do the Democrats HATE actual people owning their own homes? Or is making people permanent RENTERS part of their political philosophy?”

      No, Democrats don’t hate that Americans have property rights — provided you can find an actual Democrat above “County-level” politics (which I doubt…)

      Marxist / communists do not believe that the “little” people should own their own homes. The United States codified property rights for all American Citizens — the first place in the known history of the World to have done so. Marx hated it. Socialists since before he was born have been trying to come up with a way to undermine and get rid of those property rights.

      There is a current, concerted effort underway to undermine our property rights through a system of purchase, tax, regulate, then eliminate.

      The current phase involves building millions of Khrushchevkas (Soviet-era slum apartments) in rural towns all over CONUS.

      The next phase will be to encourage “deep-blue” urban dwellers to “move to the country” to these apartments which, while not fancy, will also not have rats, roaches, drive-bys, or squalor (at least not while they’re still new…)

      The deep blue city folks will move to the country, and take their politics into “Red” areas, thus flipping them and affecting a swing toward Marxism which could otherwise not happen.

      Along about here, the United States will finally surrender the precept of individual property rights, or rather, Congress will vote to amend the Constitution and end them…

      Reply
      • Many of those deep blue people wouldn’t last six months in the countryside. Perhaps they could survive in a small town, but it’s unlikely they’d be happy off by their lonesomes. We’ll see.

        Can they even change a tire?

      • “Many of those deep blue people wouldn’t last six months in the countryside.”

        You can bet they, and their lifestyles, will be subsidized…

        On a totally unrelated side-note: George Soros’ personal fortune went from under $6bln to over $46bln, between 2009 and 2015 (the years when he was an “unofficial special advisor” to Mr. Obama), an increase in wealth of 42% per year, on average (I noticed in particular, because Warren Buffett, who was a “friend” but not an “advisor” to Obama, increased his wealth by a less-than-normal {for him} 22% per year.

        My point? Not there, but HERE:

        Between the time Donald and Melania walked down that staircase and the end of 2017, Mr. Soros’ personal wealth went from $46blm to $8.8bln. Financing revolutions can get expensive…

  7. “The screamer in the report is Gasoline”

    Yup up..because it’s up electric rates are going to go up.. the little bit that they went up a few years ago should have gotten everyone a nickle raise.. the company would have to make an extra fifty grand. Instead they cut hours .
    In two years when the increase caused by the rise of construction materials hits . A janitor or cashier will need to clear roughly 30 an hour just for housing costs. Not even considering everything else.
    Does that hundred dollar soda pop sound realistic or the million dollar loaf of bread.. toss in a poor crop year and see what you have..
    Pizza off china and they just tell us ..make it yourself.. or we are dropping the dollar bill..give us a secured currency.. we are screwed..
    Toss in a war.. how much can the laborers afford..

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  8. Rate of change ? what / where ?

    Certainly not in technology..automobiles . Airplanes . Paying $$ for Electricity/NRG . Yeah yeah chips keep getting smaller – bfd!

    Science&Religion vs “MAGIC”= reason why our Sci-Tech. SUX such big baby chunks..

    What did the illustrious war hero Ike get in return from “aldabarans&draco’s” (agreement) for “limited” Human “experimentation” approval ?? Apparently he did not get SHIT, but useless trinkets…

    The rate of change in tech has been and still is Negative-blocked/divergent – just like the Not federal reserves “real rates” – Negative.

    We are going to burn this whole “thing” down shortly with those Neg rates. The inflation Beast just now starting his wake up routine..scratching,yawning, drink of water, sniffing around and realizing that pain in the stomach area – is because he has not eaten in a looong time and is starving for Ure hard earned $$$

    Who in the World can stop the inflation beast 2.0, – 1.0 was the late 70’s early 80’s when coots first 30 yr mortgage was 9.89% w/ VA guarantee.
    Think bout that rate for minute, what that would that kinda rate do to home affordability going forward..fugly.

    5000 on SPY and fortythou on the Dow ! melting up – no pain, no gain. Still looking for the handle to form in TGB chart.
    Yes – Bitcoin is STILL in Bull market – Ure just doesnt remember what a very healthy correction inside a bull market looks like – back up the truck- its loading time.
    ps

    Shout out Jasmine ! good to be free again.
    ..next time U pop a cap in a cops ear, on a dock – throw the dam gun in the ochin – plausible deniability dont cha know. Is it Involuntary, if the devil made U do it ?

    Reply
    • This whole meme is a slap in the face that even after all these years of unfettered access to information, people have only gotten stupider. I wish I could round up all the magnet believers and make them pay me money for something. I somehow feel that would be a simple feat if you could get over some logistics.

      What other objects suddenly become magnetic when pressed against skin?
      Playing cards + foreheads
      Empty beer cans
      Post It notes
      Dirt
      Sweat

      What doesn’t respond to COVID vaccine magnetism effect?
      A compass
      Any other device that measures magnetism

      Is this a giant f*cking put on? This looks like a carney barker taking money from idiots who’ve never seen a giraffe.

      Reply
      • A COMPASS WILL NOT WORK TO FIND Fe! You can pass a compass by an iron beam and ,,, nothing. A compass points to magnetics. If you magnetize the iron first, then a compass will point to it. the Question you need to ask is, Why is there Fe(iron) in the vaccine? will electo-magnetic radiation affect it?
        Now go get another booster. I am mask and vaccine free. Never put a mask on once for the scamdemic

      • I doubt there’s significant iron in a vaccine, but if there’s mRNA, all bets are off as to what it codes for, other than the spike protein.

        I’m not around anyone who got vaxxed, so I can’t check this magnetic effect for myself.

      • I’ll send you a picture of a friend who had a fridge magnet stick to her injection point through George if you want Philistine. You’ve always had problems believing your paradigms have completely fallen apart. The magnet thing is real, albeit somewhat random given the different batches of “vaccines” and people out there. The injection sites aren’t magnetic in and of themselves. They’re simply attracted TO a magnet.

  9. Love the comments about what are you saying and immense rubbish ing by folks . Just proves how vegetated and herded the labotimised sheep are . Anyway bulls and bears make markets and do appreciate the only guy who lets me express . George. Regardless of his convictions he is the only guy who doesn’t isolate or chide like a little kid . Good bloke actually. And tough which I like . Not a dumb slimet

    Reply
    • The bad part about this? It’s affecting teens to twenties males. The ones who are supposed to be the healthiest of the demographics.

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  10. IF: you buy the $90K version of the electric F-150, THEN you get 300 miles on a charge and you can recharge it in 8 hours using the 240 volt Ford charging station; ELSE you get 230 miles per charge and recharge time is 12 hours.

    IF: you get the base model with the 120V charger, THEN you get 230 miles per charge and 14 hour recharge time; ELSE you pay incrementally more for anything between these two options.

    The best guess from “experts” is that towing your boat or very small RV will get you about 100 miles of drive time with the extended battery pack on the $90k model.

    Man, I gotta get one so I can be green AND the cool guy!!

    Reply
  11. Forgot!! They will give you a free folding lawn chair with a beverage holder so you can watch your smartmeter revolve during the 80 amp charge cycles….

    Reply

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