Not our objective to get into the “Doom Porn” business. Rather, we suffer the illusion of remaining rational while the world of zombies comes along…
Having “invented” our Aggregate view of markets in the rubble of the 2000-2003 Internet Bubble blow-down, and enjoyed some profits using it in the 2009 Housing Bubble bottom, we see another series of warnings for the period ahead now.
While there is little likelihood of the market dropping precisely to that yellow dot (indicating a very close replay with 1929) we nevertheless do have a well-worn copy of Ben Bernanke’s “Essays on the Great Depression” for supplemental trading reminders.
The red trace is 2009 through this morning’s early futures; the blue is how the 1920-1932 accident chain worked:
The good news is that there was some gain back as bargain hunters came back in. OK, and some offshore proxies, perhaps?
Part of the myth of anti-fragility is other systems will step in. Yet as we read in today’s accounts of gas shortages, sometimes – even in a supposedly “anti-fragile” system, there are no backups.
By the way, former Fed chief Bernanke hasn’t posted anything to his blog (over here) in a very long time. We keep an eye on it waiting for him to utter a warning. But, whether he can (or will) remains an open question among the flock.
We never gloat on anyone’s losses, but the refusal of Colonial Pipeline to pay ransomware demands, has not helped the hype of Latter Day Tulip promoters. Bitcon dropped under $50K this morning.
No doubt, coin hucksters will call for “buying the dips” but we unabashedly hold that from a long-term view, it will be the “dips doing the buying.”
Which is not to say that a government-backed crypto might not be ahead of us. However, the digital Yuan (15-cents of Biden Scrip-BS) may be seen as a Trojan Horse “U.S. companies, not the government, have most to fear from China’s digital yuan” reported MarketWatch.
Makes for some grist for thought as you’re sitting in lines. As Florida, Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina declare state of emergency over gas shortages.”
Double-Dose of Daily Data: We have this week’s new unemployment claims to kick off the view:
Followed by the Producer Price Final Demand report. Remember, this is pent-up inflation rolling through the manufacturing pipeline and it won’t arrive for 30-120 days at the consumer level.
“Final demand services: Prices for final demand services rose 0.6 percent in April, the fourth consecutive advance. Half of the broad-based increase in April is attributable to the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.5 percent. Margins for final demand trade services also rose 0.5 percent, and the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services jumped 2.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received
by wholesalers and retailers.)
Product detail: Within the index for final demand services in April, prices for portfolio management rose 1.5 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services; food retailing; fuels and lubricants retailing; physician care; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing also moved higher.
Conversely, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell 5.6 percent. The indexes for apparel wholesaling and for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services also
declined. (See table 4.)
Yes, do go over to Table 4 *here* and see how gasoline has more than doubled (+225.7% YoY). Whee!
By the way, one of the guys at the local tire (and inspection) shop was telling me Wednesday he went out to buy a rough-cut pine 1-by-12 for a project last week. Single 8-footer, right? $18.50. Even democrat economists see it: Larry Summers sends inflation warning to White House: Dominant risk to economy is ‘overheating.’ NSS.
Elaine and I are planning a massive remodel of our failing (14-year old) deck on the front of the house. But, we’re putting that project off till fall to allow the pain and suffering go through the pipeline. Lumber futures were showing down more than 4% over on FinViz earlier. But, in the meantime we’re eyeing the Slow Joe bubble with suspicions similar to Summers’.
Some high-brow college ought to offer a degree in “forensic speculation” (with apologies to Dr. David’s class in PA). Mirrored parabolic excesses can be a profitable pastime.
Impacting Your Life
Just as Bitcoin dropped under $50,000 this morning, out comes the story on NPR: “Elon Musk Says Tesla Won’t Accept Bitcoin For Car Purchases Any More…” Might have to rename him “Hype-along Cassidy…”
Wrong-Way Gretchen is turning her back on the public in lieu of the Blue state agenda to wreak economic havoc on America: Company defies Michigan governor’s order to close pipeline, report Yahoo. If there was an actual spill I could understand. But this hype about potential spill? Every inch of every pipeline on Earth has the “potential” to spill. Wisely, she’s being ignored. Damn socialists in Michigan don’t seem especially bright, we’re sad to observe.
Another Jab-Jab? Sure: 16 states have vaccinated at least 50% of their population. However, if you start with one type of vaccine, better stay with it for the duration hints the story “Mix and match Covid vaccine study finds increased risk of mild to moderate symptoms.” (Reminds me of the old lesson Pappy taught about the “dangers of mixing the grain and the grape.” I’ve been collecting data on that one for half a century now with more experiments planned today…)
I & I Dominate the front pages globally this morning as “ Fears of ‘all-out war’ (Israel) and concerns over variant (India) – summarizes BBC News front pages globally.”
Is there a limit to political correctness? A hint is seen in “:Joe Piscopo slams de Blasio over ‘Columbus Day’ removal from school calendar: ‘We’re putting our foot down’.”
Refreshingly rationale: “Caitlyn Jenner ‘strongly’ supports the border wall.” Pleasant surprise.
Cattle Mutilation Woo-Woo
Second season of the Skinwalker Ranch series is on Amazon. And in episode #2 last night, the question of cattle mutilations came up. When unseen forces mutilate a cow (taking the eyeballs and butt area) predators won’t touch the carcass for a year, or longer, afterwards.
While an interesting episode, I didn’t think much about it. But my very active dream-states sure did! Sometimes when I see a deep problem (like cattle mutilations) I go to sleep and there’s a switch that turns on the “Solve-For…” whatever over in the Dream Realms.
What came back?
I awoke with a very clear idea that cattle mutilations might be how the (whatever’s) coming in and out of our world via portals, figure which worldline they are on.
Been doing a lot of portal reading study as time permits. My acoustical space-time machine project is still active. And one of the problems vexing me is navigation. Summon “the fog” (common indicator around portals), enter or wait, but then what? (We’ll likely send in a drone if it works.)
You see, when you have a 3-dimensional (+ time) playing field, you can employ tools like GPS and for large spaces measures like astronomical units to establish your location down to a gnat’s ass.
But, when you’re splitting the timeline (under a modified Many World’s Interpretation (MWI) and traveling to parallel dimensions, what is your navigation reference?
The unlikely answer (appearing in the overnight dream-state work) was “measure biological ratios” sampled from a mammalian life forms.
Wonky? You Bet…
But before you completely dismiss the idea, you might watch some TV movies. The gentler of the two is The Adjustment Bureau which deals with simply operating outside of space-time. That’s a kind of scene-setting flick.
More extreme, though – and one where alt. history comes in hugely – is the Amazon series Man in the High Castle. The alt. history angle here supposes the U.S. lost WW II and that Germany got the East Coast, Japan the West, and there were pockets of resistance in the middle.
Next, we synthesize a bit in dream-to-solve lands: Imagine that we have both time-travel and “dimensions next door” (not-so coincidentally, the name of one of my books, see tab top of page for Amazon link).
To borrow the graphic from Wikipedia’s discussion of the MWI then, biological sampling at the to points indicated, might be one way of confirming (or establishing) which “space-time page” you’re on.
For more on how MWI splits work, read Why the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics Has Many Problems | in Quanta Magazine. and then ask yourself “Self: If I build a portal, how can I definitively get back here to the right space-time page?” Sure, they all re-converge at the End of Time.
But, in the meantime, the Dream Realms were schooling me last night on the notion that a high-end chemistry lab might be able to differentiate “space-time pages” and that might account for animal mutilations (and some human disappearances).
Leaving this morning’s class problem to be stated as: Are there Differential telomere lengths from different “end samples” of a mammal depending on which time line their present on? Hmm…
An ExPat Update
Had a delightful update from a long-time reader who decided, gosh, 15+ years is it now? Decided to move to the highlands of Ecuador. Where he’s been living a grand life and sending us periodic comparisons with our alternative. Some with a dash of “neener-neener” added.
Elaine and I opted, if you haven’t figured is a “domestic U.S. Bug-In” in a small town in rural America. But how about small towns somewhere else? Like Ecuador?
“It’s even cheaper in a small town (here). We have a beautiful 3 bedroom just come available, completely furnished, Utilities included, you need nothing but unpack your suitcase and buy food. $550 a month. Within walking distance of almost 50 restaurants, price of meals varies from $2.50 to $20. Last renters were there for 8 years, 95 year old italian mother died and the son who owns a restaurant decided to move out. We just refurbished, new sink, stove and refrigerator. Includes fiber optic wifi.
My wife and I use prepaid cell, $10 a month gets us 13GB and 200 minutes talk time which we never exhaust. Everybody here uses WhatsApp.
We have made many improvements since this website was put up years ago. Casa Amarilla website.
Your readers need to know about this. There are single expats here doing well on $850 a month.
Beats trying to struggle by on $2500 a month in the U.S. Read CITIZEN JOURNALISM – Single person budget $1,500 budget – Cuenca Expats Magazine ( at expatsmags.com)
I decided to leave his email tagline for you to ponder, as well, since it’s getting on closer by the day…
“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion — when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing — when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors — when you see that men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you — when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice — you may know that your society is doomed.” Ayn Rand
Off to the punch list – Elaine’s surgery comes soon and I have “miles to go before I sleep…”
Dow futures have turned up – bounce due – may be playable…
Write when you get rich (or feel so-moved…)