Fresh Housing Data

Just out:

“Data released today for February 2022 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in February, up from 19.1% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, up from 17.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.2% year-over-year gain, up from 18.9% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February. Phoenix led the way with a 32.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 32.6% increase and Miami with a 29.7% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2022 versus the year ending January 2022.”

In the Analysis section:

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.7% month-over-month increase in February, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.4%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. In February, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“U.S. home prices continued to advance at a very rapid pace in February,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 19.8% for the 12
months ended February 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 18.6% and 20.2%, respectively. All three composites reflect an acceleration of price growth relative to January’s level.
“The National Composite’s 19.8% year-over-year change for February was the third-highest reading in 35-years of history.”

Which to us looks like half an economic long wave.

As for price action?

You will see I have circled the Housing Bubble price collapse low. The housing data hit bottom in about 2011-2012.  Stocks had bottomed in March-April of 2009.

Another key:  This is February data.  It’s almost May now.  Review economics is dangerous stuff.

Something to be thinking about as a look-ahead tool to be thinking about.  Stocks bottom first, then housing?

And stocks with 20 minutes to the opening were down 182 on Dow Futures.

Write when you get rich,

9 thoughts on “Fresh Housing Data”

  1. If we sell our houses we get a pocket full of dough but the monthly property tax nut goes up when we buy the neighbor’s place.

    • If you are down-sizing, selling now may make sense. It’s the delta that goes into savings.
      Going into a worst case deflationary depression with consumer hyperinflation with no tangible assets to shelter in is not a safe bet, so if you do sell, have something lined up you can live with (and in).

  2. “Stocks bottom first, then housing?”

    I wouldn’t bet on this (or anything else) being a “hard & fast rule.” The markets are SO manipulated now that I’m not sure any ruleset can be applied to yield accurate projections.

    BTW, whatever the Dow does, I believe we’re in for the Mother of all Housing Bubble Crashes, very soon…

  3. New urban area potential buyers with just an everyday job are SCREWED when it comes to buying a house. Pricing is now so high one is now talking about a minimum of a $40,000 downpayment for a $200,000 house with most commercially available loans, “IF” you can find a house that cheap.

    One of the weekend radio talk shows last week did a scan of the MLS listings as to houses for sale that were NOT in the city’s school district (a disaster case) in my metro area of about 2 million and there were only a total of 16 listings where the asking price was under $225,000!! (stand alone houses – condos were NOT surveyed). Friend bought a new to her condo in fall of 2020 for $169,000, suburban school district location. A few weeks ago just before interest rates started their fast climb the one next to her sold for $279,000.

    IF you are already in a nice house you will be OK, but for NEW buyers unless you are making in a 6 figures income range you will NOT be able to buy a stand alone house in a decent school district, even a super small older one in need of a total rehab.

    The reality is that to be a First Time Home Buyer in this market if you want to be in a decent school district in my city you will need on the order of $60,000+ down and a combined H&W income of at least $150,000/yr.. Not many everyday job younger couples with kids have that kind of down payment, unless they have parents who can help, and many don’t have that kind of income even if they can scratch together the down payment.

    So … become a permanent renter?

    Rents here have jumped 40% over the last 2 years!!, for some places closer to 60%, again if you are to get into an OK school district. … AND they are probably going to jump another 20% per year each year over the next several years since Silicon Valley has decided we are a good place to open secondary locations so they are bringing in LOTS of people who they pay LOTS of money to … thus pricing the locals with everyday local jobs further out of the market.

    The FED and the Washington Policians who want to bring in MILLIONS MORE immigrants, mostly illegals, seem to miss the point that as you add MORE DEMAND but don’t increase the supply by much PRICES GO UP!!

    Did any of those Fed members ever take Econ 101? Supply – Demand curves appear to be Greek to them. Have they ever even heard about those?

    Ditto the politicians in DC, they don’t understand Supply -Demand curves either!! (and to think AOC has a degree in Economics from Boston University … what in the hell do they teach in Economics in that USED TO BE GOOD college anyway?)

    OH …. Transitory Inflation is what the FED was preaching to us back in December and January. What I and everybody else is seeing is “Transitory”? Those people now on the FED must have taken their Economics Courses at Boston University along with AOC!! The stupidity of East Coast Liberal Elites still never ceases to amaze me … even after I thought I had seen it all.

    Enough talking about the stupidy of the so called “Educated Elites” who control the levers of power in our government, our educational institutions, and yep even our current military (and the so called “Think Tanks”). If I don’t stop now I might tell everyone what I REALLY THINK!!!

    Stephen 2

    (to add: one son, the one who did NOT go to college, got into a decent house in a TOP school district just before prices took off, so he is OK with a super low monthly payment … my other son, the one who did go to college is now in a rental situation and is totally screwed when it comes to buying a house anytime in the next decade since there is no way he could scrape together the down payment nor have enough income to qualify for the now super high prices)

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