You may remember (especially Peoplenomics.com subscribers) that I have been telling you for a while that one of the worst outcomes we could see in Housing would be if the decline in home prices into the bottom 2009 turned out to be only an A (or 1) down in Elliott wave terms.
What I then suggested might happen would be a rebound of 60-75% of the decline, but that would leave us in an ideal position from which another declines to similar lows (if not lower) could occur.
Well, hate to say it, but guess what the data is starting to look like?
New York, November 25, 2014 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the September 2014 index data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Results show that home prices continue to decelerate. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in August. The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.
The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in September. Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn while the National Index posted a -0.1% change for the month. Charlotte and Miami led all cities in September with increases of 0.6%. Atlanta and Washington D.C. offset those gains by reporting decreases of 0.3% and 0.4%.
More important is the actual prices paid:
“The 10- and 20-City Composites continued their year-over-year downward trend, gaining 4.8% and 4.9% compared to last month’s year-over-year gains of 5.6%. Las Vegas, which has shown double-digit annual gains, posted an annual return of 9.1%, its first time below 10% since October 2012. Miami, however, continues to impress with another double digit annual gain of 10.3%. It is the only city that currently has a year-over-year double digit gain. Charlotte was the only city in September to show an annual increase relative to last month. Eighteen of the 20 cities reported slower annual gains compared to last month.
“Other housing statistics paint a mixed to slightly positive picture. Housing starts held above one million at annual rates on gains in single family homes, sales of existing homes are gaining, builders’ sentiment is improving, foreclosures continue to be worked off and mortgage default rates are at pre-crisis levels. With the economy looking better than a year ago, the housing outlook for 2015 is stable to slightly better.”
The chart above shows the index levels for the U.S. National Home Price Index, as well as its annual returns. As of September 2014, average home prices across the United States are back to their levels posted in the spring of 2005. The National Index was down 0.1% in September 2014 and 4.8% above September 2013.
Some important footnotes from me on this: First, from the time of YearOnYear change to the actual decline in prices can take a while (months), so we aren’t suggesting doom will pop out next week, or anything like that.
Remember too that this is the sales price data. It doesn’t take into account that when you sell a home, there are expenses (like commissions) so the actual net to buyer is not this good.
Last, and certainly not least, is that some of this may be coming from Banks, many of them still holding REO (real estate owned) that they may have repo’ed and are now trying to filter back into the system to clean up their books, a bit. Not in hot markets, but in cooler ones.
It’s not the end of the world just how the financial system grinds along…for now.
Works of a Latter Day Lynch Mob
The only group of people to see and review ALL the evidence in the Michael Brown shooting case are prosecutors and the Grand Jury. No one else. They didn’t find a basis for charges.
But, hey! Don’t let a few little things (facts and the grand jury process) getand lynching mindset — The rioters are, after all, more intent on revolution than reality, and getting the “due process” narrative off-track.
Pay it no mind. We know there is still injustice in America, but the grand jury says this wasn’t it. Naturally, a wrongful death trial is almost predictable follow-up.
Meantime, about 30 people have been arrested, over a dozen buildings burned, more than 150-shots fired (not by police according to reports) and I expect we’ll see more protests to come, despite the fact that this is what due process is all about.
Racist lynch mobs back in the 1800’s were never civil. Seems, they aren’t today, either. Just the composition, not sentiments have changed. That’s progress? Sheesh. ViceGrips to the forearm.
Port Check: No Depression in Sight, yet….
We haven’t strolled the waterfront along the West Coast lately, but if you want to see through the BS filtered MSM, check out some of the latest port data: Should have been called “Rocktober…”
- Long Beach is up 4.1% compared to a year ago. (loaded inbound)
- Los Angeles is up 7.16% YoY
- Oakland was up 9.2%
- Port of Tacoma up 17.5% (with a nod to our buddy Glenn who drives a crane there)
- And the Port of Seattle was the only turkey in the group, down 8.7% but then again, Seattle is hemmed in on real estate and rail lines in the downtown core. So what did you expect?
The bottom line – if you walk the dock and talk the walk – is that the waterfront is hopping so if anyone starts telling you there is a collapse coming in America…well, the data right now says onward and upward for maybe another year. Three months, anyway…The docks being busy means more spending and that means more jobs.
Wall St. wasn’t even phased by the anarchists in Ferguson; the market has been slightly positive on the futures most of the morning. Maybe housing will be blamed, but our Trading Model on the Peoplenomics side, got us back on the long side of things in a hurry. Only speed bump ahead is the employment data a week from Friday…
Second Opinion: GDP Just Out
Bureau of Economic Analysis data says much the same thing:
Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.
In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With the second estimate for the third quarter, private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated, and both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more. In contrast, exports increased less than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).
Could it be recent dreams about “employment” reported at the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site might actually foretell a melt-up on markets and one of the biggest short squeezes ever?
More after this…
Spies vs. Spyware, Hong Kong
Latest one to be up on is called Regin and there’s a CNET write up on it here.
And it comes as no surprise that it waswaging wars in deserts, Ukraine, and via backdoor money into Hong Kong dissent?
Speaking of which, 32 people have been arrested in Honk Kong. Gee…dead heat with Ferguson. Now if we could just get it up to 33 in each location we could spin some marvelous conspiracy tales…
Trending is the new video “I.” It’s up to 1+ million views worldwide now.
Fine example of how pop culture gets wrapped into dividing peoples…
Job Opportunity, Canada
Darn shamed chief www.nostracodeus.com programmer Grady bought himself an iron horse, for him and one for his lady, too, recently. Because turns out there’s a growing shortage of cowboys in Canada, caused by oil work sucking up all available talent.
A few bars of “Home, home and deranged…” if you please.