The (not-so) Federal Reserve meets tomorrow and Wednesday will have the decision on rates, but most of the smart money seems to be on a quarter-point hike, rather than going a full half.
Although, in fairness, there is a case to be made there since the 10-year Note which was trading around 1.75% a couple of months back was trading around 2.45 on Friday and that’s more than half a point higher. At its lows – as we have scraped along the bottom, I seem to recall 1.37%, but that’s going from memory and you know how dis-reliable that can be.
Point, though, is that the Fed might just shock the hell out of everyone with a bigger-than-expected hike.
One reason (besides the markets trading like it) is that the big oil discovery up north of Midland, Texas at the “Wolfcamp find” is bigger than anything ever found here.
Let me explain, if I may?
You see, prior to the Big Find, the US Federal Debt was in the vicinity of $20-trillion. I mean we all “get that,” right?
Since the find is huge (20-billion barrels is a lot of crude), even at todays lousy prices around $50 a barrel, you’re looking at a Trillion Dollars. And when (not if, but when) oil gets back to $100, then it makes the USA $2-trillion richer…and at $150 oil, well, that’s $3-trillion.
In a sense, it’s like a 15% debt reduction in a sense. Certainly some savings for a rainy day..
No, I don’t mean literally, but down the road we certainly won’t be bringing in so much oil as before. Less money going out.
Another factor is that when Donald Trump takes office, he may ease the restrictions on coal mining, and that, too, will reduce ours foreign energy demands.
Plus, by naming a former Exxon-Mobile CEO Rex Tillerson to State (today’s Rumor d’ Trump) we will have even more savvy on fuel-switching plugged into policy at the highest levels.
Which Gets Us To Global Warming
A couple of moving pieces here:
We’ll skip the snide remarks about hot air, please.
Then we flip up to Chicago and the Heartland where 1,800+ flights were reportedly canceled because of…well, let’s just say it wasn’t Global Warming.
And last, but not least, the Sun is back to sleep according to the sunspot progression work done by NASA:
What it means is the debate will continue but some of the MSM may be waking up. The UK Express headlines “Global COOLING: World temperature DROPS as spikes NOT caused by man, scientists claim.”
This ought to set up even more stories about how climate change skeptics have beenb silenced by peers who have their fingers in the (grant) funding cookie jar.
FBI Tried to Frame Assange?
But we must advise caution when reading anything related to Russia these days, since there has been a charge from the Obama administration that the Russians were trying to hack the U.S. Election.
And “me-too” McCain says it’s a ‘Form of Warfare’ but like we said, how much is real and how much is disinfo is a matter of personal discernment.
That’s because on one side, the Obama administration’s “senior officials” have not released the actual intelligence so it is an assertion.
And since Obama’s post-presidency income prospects largely depend on democrats and issues like “warming” and what have you, we don’t know how to weigh the “dirty hands” aspect of things.
Troubles for the Trumpedency
The Foggy Bottom crowd is pressing their (globalist) agenda again. This time with stories circulating about how the Chinese are upset with Donald Trump for questioning the “One China Policy.”
What people don’t seem to realize is that Trump is a good businessman and a good businessman doesn’t tell the whole world what cards he’s holding.
Think about it: If Trump says we are not bound to any of the old policies, as he is saying over here, then he can forge a broader, new direction for the USA.
China, for its part, is trying to grow a middle class and to do that, their strategic efforts will be focused on rolling from “production for export” to “production for internal consumption” but slowly, over time, in order to avoid economic displacements.
If Trump moves too fast, we would expect to see more Chinese saber-rattling of the sort where they flew a nuclear bomber over the South China Sea to “send a message” to Trump.
As to whether we actually get into a war with Chinese in the 2022-2024 timeframe then becomes problematic.
Our work shows that the bubble in the stock market – due for a short, sharp 3% correction and then likely to head to fresh all-time highs in the Spring – could easily be in collapse by this time next year.
That being the case, the US will have a very delicate series of decisions to make that will require close coordination of the Fed, Treasury, and State.
That’s because while it’s true that Trumperian Nationalism has a noble cause, forcing China to shift too quickly from an export orientation to internal consumption model, could land them in difficult times.
Since China has many aspects of industry that lead the US now, too much US reaction could leave them with little option except war in order to serve the dual purposes of war: Economic continuation (continuity) and (political) control (/governance) of a huge population that could get cranky if their freshly achieved quality of life (QoL) is tinkered with.
It’s early to be getting deeply into this now, but you can see some of the foundational issues in books like Red Dragon Rising and others. For now, we’re in data collection mode and trying to figure the best way through the mess for ourselves and readers alike.
Syria: It’s a Stretch
We were rather intrigued b y the BBC story over here entitled “Syrian conflict: Assad’s fragmenting military.”
The story seems focused on the gradual loss of control of Palmyra.
But the one thing I didn’t see mentioned was the comparison between Palmyra and Aleppo. The former is only 200,000 people while Aleppo is 10-times larger.
The West sees anxious to seize on any change in Assad’s focus as meaning imminent collapse, and since this war is largely the off-spring of regime-change neocons in the State Department, we hope that incoming T.Rex will have a much clearer view that the twisted relations the Obama administration has manipulated during its eight years to solve the problem.
Some Peace-Prizer, huh?
Futures are up a shade on the Dow and S&P but down more than offsetting on the NASDAQ so an overall down day seems like, but as always, this is not financial advice and we shall all see in the fullness of time.