Fed Scrambles Ahead of Recession

by

But, before we wheel out the white board and play huff-the-marker, a number of housekeeping economic reports to dispense with:

Retail Sales:

Remember, this is a dollarized report.  So, we could have price increases – not actual consumption levels – account for virtually all of the (purported) increases.

Then we stir in half a cup of weekly…

New Unemployment Filings:

Remember on this one, the NSA (not-seasonally adjusted) numbers matter.  Anyone in statistics who uses “seasonal adjustments” other than on a fall, winter, spring, summer basis is a liar or a con artist.  Or a statistician.  But I repeat myself.

Housing Starts are also interesting and just out:

And an upbeat Philly Fed report:

The diffusion index for current general activity rose 11 points to 27.4 this month, its highest reading since November 2021 (see Chart 1). More than 40 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 26 percent last month) in current activity this month, while 13 percent reported decreases (up from 10 percent). The current shipments and new orders indexes also rose to their highest readings since November 2021: The current shipments index increased 17 points to 30.2, and the new orders index increased 12 points to 25.8.

On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, and the employment index rose to 38.9, its highest reading ever. Almost 44 percent of the firms reported increases in employment, compared with 5 percent that reported decreases; 48 percent reported no change. The average workweek index rose 11 points, to 21.4.

But, cool as these are to ponder, odds are fair that tea leaf readings from the Fed’s Industrial Production and Utilization numbers due out at 9:15 AM ahead of the open, will be more impactful.  This is where rubber meets the road, though it’s a rearview look.  Still, click here and enjoy after they post.

Oh, one more for cocktail time:  Fed Balance Sheet out this afternoon, but unless you’re into Jekyll Island-style accounting, head right to the Glenlivet and call it a day.

Tomorrow, being options day, there is little on the agenda other than a Leading Economics Indicator (LEI) which looks like a (truth-leaking) anagram to us.

Scrambled Fed

We ran with the simple SOMA asset purchases continue assumption which proved right: In the Powell press availability (replete with technical glitches galore) I didn’t catch one question about SOMA.

Essentially, though, this is where the Fed goes out into the market and buys assets (like bonds).  In the process they have spent a pile of money.  I think Esther George’s number was over $8 trillion.  My own back of the envelope puts it closer to $10 trillion.

Whenever we talk about the Fed, the National Debt, and the whole “making up money” routine, it’s useful to Big Picture things.

Flywheel of Finance

The Federal Reserve’s roll is to provide stable prices and maximum employment – the so-called “Dual Mandate.”  But we need to be extraordinarily clear on something:  There is NO reference to “sound money.”

Today’s central banking fad (until is blows over) is a hybridization of socialist spending (more than we take in), Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – which is making up money, and a complicit Congress and White House orchestrating the whole shit-show.

Simply: when times get bad, the Fed loosens interest rates and people spend.  When times are good, they can pull in a bit and an overheated economy will cool down.

EXCEPT:  Nothing is ever enough.  Free-spending (making up money) Congress, not wanting to address the wholesale theft of American Manufacturing (*now Chineseum products we depend on), has been forced to make up whole news industries by creating victim classes.

Victims has been a YUGE growth business:  Gender, Race, Climate, Open Borders (those poor darling drug mules, right?).  But to buy off the Industrial Complex, we also need wars, which is the how and why of Slo Pops getting upstreamed enough from Ukraine (go read Miranda Devine’s book Laptop from Hell) that we are now “closing a Russian Border” instead of a Mexican border.

By now, you may be starting to understand why huffing a white board marker comes to mind.

Theory:  The Fed is an Economic Fly Wheel.

Fact: The Fed is a drug peddler and the drug of choice for all politicians (after the pedos, addicts, and inside traders are excluded) is FREE MONEY.

Covering Up a Depression

Notwithstanding the overall crookery of it all, Ure has spent thousands of hours (with my consigliere helping a lot) trying to figure out how a Second Depression is Hidden in Plain Sight.

Traditional Depressions, like 1840s, 1873, 1930 and so on, usually result in hard times for people.  Which causes them to sit on their wallets.

But in the Nuevo Depression the trick has been HOLLOWING OUT THE PURCHASING POWER of the U.S. Dollar.

This has been done deliberately as multiple sequential scapegoats have been paraded by.  Each play the role of a Judas Goat.

When we were figuring (late 2019) that things should implode about here, along comes the bioweapon release (Judas goat 1), here comes the lockdown festival led by socialist shamers and bullies.  “Blame Covid!” was the mandate. Legality – and for that matter, science-based medicine – be damned.

Ukraine is the Second Goat

With the economy now managed, people were beginning to get “sick of sickness” and a great number of us “stupes in flyover land” figured out that while N95s on everyone did work, the reality is that bandanas on two people doesn’t stop a fart, let alone Covid.

The answer?  Call Victoria Nuland and the Neocons who love seeing enemies everywhere.  Since the Middle East features only a contained war in Syria (*until Israel attacks Iran but who knows how long this will play since the Slo White House under OBiden is trying to piss away more American assets to the Mullahs), Ukraine was tagged “It.”

“Guns of August all over again” my consigliere worries.  So far, dead right.  If you like World War 1 (the pandemic was after the war, not before it, in that sequence – so go historical rhymes), you’ll love what’s ahead.

Funding the Hidden Depression

Pay attention here:  This is why the Fed is scrambling:

We expect another Recession will begin by Q3 – and this means the Fed will need to be ready to throw in even more with the Free Spenders of our Venezuela-clone Congress (right down to the AOCs).

Problem is?  They’ve already “shot their load” (an adult finance term) because the Fed Balance sheet has been puffed up with asset dealings to “fill the gap between the red arrow below and the green one…

As you can see, the 1929 Fed did not go hog-wild on the Balance Sheet and didn’t listen to the (strangely quiet over at Brookings) Ben Bernanke.  The “helicopter drops” of cash do work – you got one yourself last year, right?

Problem is, we correctly call this Papering Over a Depression.

Thing is, though, as long as alphabet agencies have their hooks into the fewer than dozen media that really matter, mind control does work.  “No Depression here, Citizen…move along, nothing to see…”

Well, except yes, there is:

The Dollar’s Collapsing

In the short term, Judas Goat 2 (*Ukraine) will keep people all whipped up.  Media get eyeballs, NATO gets papered over since they can’t fund themselves (because Europeans are cheap pricks), so Ukraine’s steep social gradient between reactionary Nazi-fodder and freedom-fighters can be played like a fiddle.

Try these on, Nero:

From the Ukraine news agency: Russian troops killed 108 children in Ukraine (ukrinform.net) and Biden calls Putin “war criminal,” in first (ukrinform.net) is of interest.

On the Russia side (we’ll use Pravda today): Ukrainian journalist calls Ukrainian military to slaughter and exterminate all Russians (pravda.ru). But the REAL story (Everything’s a Business Model, right?) Russia makes debt payments, avoids default.

He who pays and runs away, lives to fight another day…

Look, I’m not minimizing the horrors of war here: Yes, they are bloody and real.  What I am doing, though is laying out some context for all this; money and power mad people trying to keep 7.9 billion from blowing everything the f**k up.

Then Nick Called

Just shutting down the cpu’s last night in my hovel of an office when a long-time subscriber “Nick” called.  Great guy, solid engineer, did some consulting work for him a few years back, life is good, yada, yada.

“So, I was talking to my brother and we’re wondering how this Saudi oil sales to China deal is going to work.  Will that be the end of the Dollar and what then?”

Damn good question.

I told him my expectation is everyone will play for time in here.  Ukraine so they can get more aid, Russia so they can rethink and re-tactic, and the Saudis so they can figure out who the “winner” (if any, right?) in Ukraine will be.

Famine Lite is already baked in – since farming in a war zone is crazy (*however, the world is crazy).  Which means Ukraine resource comes off the world market and we’re into the part of our modeling which said (last year) “Build a greenhouse and develop more bean sprouting skills…”

He hadn’t caught up on this week’s Peoplenomics yet, so I asked him “Why are you and your brother wasting time on Saudi oil?  It’s not PERSONALLY ACTIONABLE.

And that’s what Peoplenomics focused on this week:  In order to develop an action plan in your life, you need to look ahead – past this momentary bullshit in headlines – and realize that the US will need a currency regime change in the next five years.  But, other than “seizing the physical assets of the future” (seeds, water filtration, fertilizer, knowledge, lead throwers, tools, and a Civilization Restart kit from Robert Nelson) what is the point of worrying about the Saudis.

Go read the Scotia Bank take on the Fed waffle Wednesday.  Some of their key point?

  • Growth forecasts are still strong, but revised down…
  • …as inflation forecasts revised sharply higher
  • Treasuries sold off while stocks rallied and the USD depreciated

A good part of the short-term rally was likely treasury allocations moving into stocks.  Which will likely reverse when (and this was in the Fed discussion Wednesday) inflation cools in 2023 (recessions will do that).

So: Back to Basics

Market futures are down a bit.

Our Aggregate Index closed Wednesday at 37,201.57.  A month ago, on Options Thursday’s previous day close equivalent it was at 38,609.26.  Down about 3.64 percent for the “option month.”

The manic rally?  Publicly pinned on Zelensky hopes for aid and other air-=-head baubles.  The reality is likely closer to Big Money doesn’t like paying out winnings to options players who get things right.

See, if the market had closed at last week’s lows (Aggregate 35,531.71) the monthly decline would have been much larger: a 4.48 percent decline.

Doesn’t mean a damn thing in terms of structural collapse, though – that’s baked-in because our money is hollowed out with debt.

For now, it’s all time players waiting for signs and portents.  When someone brings up Saudi Arabia’s Oil-For-Yuan Bid Won’t Threaten the Dollar, ask ’em what their personal action plan is as a result.

If they haven’t got one, you can jot them down as not having financial awareness and living under the spell of Tube-dini.  It’s all a magic act for the flock.  Until the next goat is called in.

In fact, seems to us even Putin is “Stalin” as Putin Vows to Rid Russia of ‘Traitors’ While Waging Ukraine War.

Useful Notes

Post Quake:  Cleanup Begins After 7.4 Quake Shakes North Japan, Killing 4.

Planning to flee the city?  4 Key Innovations Driving Expansion of Rural Broadband.

Smollett theatrics pile on:  Jussie Smollett Ordered Released From Jail Pending Appeal.  So lemme see:  Smollett’s out and how many Jan. 6 detainees have still not been charged yet?  Seems racist to me…

Time out:  Sleep experts say Senate has it wrong: Standard time, not daylight saving, should be permanent. Gee.  Golly. Imagine that.  The Senate getting something wrong.  Why, who’ddah thought?

End News Addiction

Off to the biggest local, meaningful decision of the day:  Pork roast with gravy or fajitas for dinner tonight.  Wait!  Tarragon-lemon fried chicken sounds good, too.

All to be decided by the weather:  Pot roast being a better cool day dish – that would fit better with tomorrow’s forecast. Tarragon-lemon chicken it is.

Not particularly news-worthy.  But, local, actionable, and an exercise in good taste.  Seriously, can media generally make those claims?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

45 thoughts on “Fed Scrambles Ahead of Recession”

  1. Vlad sez:
    “I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge.”
    Precious bodily fluids?

    • Speaking of precious. bodily fluids, I have noticed that most people are no longer taking their red pill orally. They are now having it shoved up the ass – very hard!

      No problem with the few who would insist on the blue pill – SSRI drugs from China are still available – for now. If you are not red pill inclined, so get that Prozac or Wellbutrin while supplies last! Morpheous has given you permission.

    • sniff, sniff – an unmistakable smell hear exits .

      “The Punisher” comes, and will “nine”the mission.

      real fun starts after the event (s), never liked mopping, but the USN changed me.. into a mop slinging mad dog..

      “hey tony, is that rain on Ure brow, or are you just not thrilled to see me?”

  2. “End News Addiction” Amen George.

    Got up in the middle of the night last night to go to the bathroom (seniors understand). Turned on my iPad to see if anything new in the Ukraine war. Good God. I have never done that before. Realized I was addicted!

    Remembered the good old days when I worked (away from home), came home and watched the 6 o’clock news for 1/2 hour in the evening. After that, a good book or comedy show like The Honeymooners, Carol Burnett, Hee Haw, Laugh-In, etc. Life was so good.

    Thanks to some positive encouragement on this site and a few friends, working hard on my book for my grandkids. Also decided to do a tandem skydive to celebrate my 80th birthday.

    After all, Life is for living, right. Ask Andy.

    • “Got up in the middle of the night last night to go to the bathroom (seniors understand). Turned on my iPad to see if anything new in the Ukraine war.”

      Me to.. I think a lot of my obsession is because I cannot believe how F@@king stupid this FUBAR administration is.. I get it that the idiots have been at the beltway troughs for the vast majority of their lives.. but my god now I am not sure if they can back peddlethis mess they’ve created.. then i read stories like this and wonder if everyone has lost their minds..
      https://ijr.com/poll-35-percent-americans-favor-us-military-action/

      What people here don’t fathom is we haven’t experienced war on our shores in our lifetime it always involves someone else. the closest we have came is with the riots of BLM and Antifa and look what a mess that has created..
      I didn’t realize it but I have 49 news websites open on the pocket brain..
      One company I do business with in China usually takes 3 weeks to a month to get products.. I made my order and it was here in 3 days I about fell over.. I called and asked.. the young lady .. she said because I am a good customer they wanted to make sure I got my order in case everything escalated.. now products are being advertised in some stores in china with Juan and rubles instead of dollars.. so who knows..

    • Just remember, if it’s actionable, it is NOT something you are going to read at 2am.

      My phone is something I never touch, let alone answer between 9p and 9a unless the caller is a kid or a friend.

      I may be on a computer until 2am one day, and not on it at all for the next two. If’fn nuclear war kicks off, Yellowstone blows its top, or an asteroid plows into Earth, I’m pretty sure I’ll clue-in on the info sooner than if I waited to read about it. For anything of lesser impact, the news or information can wait…

  3. Yes sir, lotta dogs being wagged anymore. I spend a fair amount of time calming my 94-Year-old mother after she gets a look at whatever propaganda, er news, is on. Mom, turn that crap off.
    Mrs and I have a single evening where we will sit together and watch a TeeVee show, the rest of the week is her wasting air on the Bachelor or Voice something. Our current selection is Yellowstone. Her choice as usual. Since I get antsy after about 30 minutes I doubt I will make it completely through an episode. Last night she asked me, “Do we have a Brand?”. Yes, why? Then some kid on the show gets a Yellowstone brand on his chest.
    I better make sure those irons get locked up.

    • Jim in MO,

      Propaganda? News?

      Mentioned the Russia Ukraine situation in an email to a cousin of mine. She replied:

      “Putin is a madman! My husband told me so! He knows whats going on, because he is retired and watches the news ALL DAY.”

      • It depends on what news.. people I visit with while playing an online game.. tell a different story than what we see on MSM .. then again even though they have been saying this for years.. we don’t know there isn’t any personal reference points to reflect on.. if everyone could live as we have been taught..in Christ’s teachings or the DAO .. all the horror makes me frustrated in the futility of it all and sad..

  4. As you know polls are normally false as one can pretty much poll who you want to meet your end result to get what you wanted.
    so 1/3 of the pop says it is OK for the nukes to fly, either the poll is wrong or these are the vaxxed and are NOW zombies from the crap in the false vaccines. anyway you look at this unless the powers in charge are not removed and that is LOTS of them I don’t see anything getting better and I see things continuing to go down a deep dark rabbit hole with NO light at the end other than total control of the masses and us sane ones being targeted.
    It is a very unstable world we are living in.

    • It is a very unstable world we are living in
      Indeed sir
      The idiots are pushing for a no fly zone and they have no clue what that really means.
      It means American pilots engaging Russian pilots. The end game after that is. THE END
      The gloves will be off and all those nukes take to the air. Depending on where you are you got 8 to 30 minutes to duck.
      Once again Americans shedding blood for another euro family fued sqauble. Ukraine should take one for the team and surrender, turn the criminals over to Putin and save the world from a really bad sunburn.

      • Agreed Brother – but there is still money – lots of $$ – to be made in this war. It’s like the covid con – get people whipped up, take their money, print of Trillions with a ‘T’, force people to take toxic vaccines, then…..

        Then end the con with another con – ‘The War’!

        Any bets on the next ‘con?’ And these are not cons?? let’s talk about my ocean front property for sale.

      • Yes lots of relief funds to be sent to a corrupt war torn nation. Sometimes I think the only goal here is to create a crisis so American politicians have an excuse to send billions of aid,(money and munitions) to these corrupt countries so all involved can skim as much as they can get away with. How convenient that potato head Joe and family are so tight with the units.
        I bet half of the weapons we send over there end up sold to the next terrorist organization trying to make a name for themselves.

      • “I bet half of the weapons we send over there end up sold to the next terrorist organization”

        Naw, we took care of that in Afghanistan. Those AR-15s we’re sending probably cost $10k each though, by the time they’re unpacked.
        ___________________

        What’s 2700×233,000,000?

        .
        ..
        …
        …..

        The approximate amount of money the U.S. Government had paid the three pharmcos for COVID shots, through February 15th.

        TNSTAAFL

  6. My answer to the food shortage & power outage. 2 year supply of patriot supply food ( good for 25 years). Rain water filter & storage units. Plenty of fire making gear to use in boiling water to cook the dehydrated food. Plenty of ammo. No generator or solar power to produce electricity since I won’t need any.

    All purchased with US Dollars vs sweat equity. And it doesn’t matter whether it rains or shines, light or dark. Meals are being served.

    I have 2 years to gear up if things only continue to get worse.

    • NC
      Radioactive clouds circling the earth makes deadly rain in your rain barrel. Not very tasty.

      Long term food us not eatable for 2 years. Too much salt and no fat, almost no meat, and no chew factor. You’ll get tired of it quite quickly. Even if you can eat it ,the calories are set at about 2000 a day, much of it cooaide type drinks and rice/oats. I’d be willing to bet that you eat much more than 2000 calories a day.

      You might not need much meat but you do need fats for your brain to work. No fats…you become a zombie. Don’t plan on killing all the local wild animals. The radioactive rain will kill most of them, and hungry hoards will get the rest.

      • Suggest entering the “state” of Bigu.

        will need a “Master”/handler to help “guide’ during the first couple months.. but will solve Ure the Energy/Fuel problem.

        from 80 Characters……Aspiration, Interest, Harship, Benefit, Enterprise. next
        Precedence, Grasp, Persistence, Comprehension, Virtue.
        *
        Extensiveness, Knowledge, Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism

        Reverence, Search, Master, Gate, Direct.

        1st 20 – 25% to meditate on..Enjoy.

      • Bum – what are you talking about? Sounds like nonsense.

        Eleanor – good points. I am not sure if boiling water eliminates radioactivity. Probably not. I guess we would all die from radioactive poisoning.

      • @NC

        “I am not sure if boiling water eliminates radioactivity. Probably not. I guess we would all die from radioactive poisoning.”

        It does not. Some of us would die, some would adapt to the elevated radiation and be fine, although we might birth 3-eyed babies for a few generations.

        Read up on the Chernobyl recovery…

      • Boiling water eliminates living organisms (bacteria, viruses, etc.) but does not remove any metals including uranium. There are some sophisticated methods of adding other chemicals or flocculents to precipitate out metals and then filter the sludge but you don’t want to go there, believe me.

        Best just to not let radioactive particles enter the water in the first place. Sealed containers!

    • “No generator or solar power to produce electricity since I won’t need any.”

      My bet is that a month into it you will wish you had at least a flashlight. No batteries? No recharger? No radio for external news information? Thou art a fool.

      • I said electricity. Of course I have battery & crank flashlights & a crank radio, including shortwave. I should have spelled that out.

      • Lol shorter than that Hank.. flip off the main breaker for a day..
        We have no idea what we take for granted.. sewer..water.. warmth..

  7. Let’s compare war notes here…

    MARTIN ARMSTRONG: We may see this crisis turn into a confrontation as soon as the week of April 18th going into the first week of May based upon our computer models. But the real crisis may come in August and turn global in 2023.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/nato-calls-up-hundreds-of-thousands-of-troops-ready-to-begin-wwiii/

    G.A. STEWART: Without going into the details for the new readers, I have concerns about April 17th, 2022, Easter, and April 19th, 2022; and then some very serious concerns when we see the Sun entering Leo in late July.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2022/03/11/par-mort-senile-death-through-senility/

    • Bugging out 4-2-22 for southern latitudes, 20 ft seaworthy container heads out next week. Concerned will not “get out” in time prior to next “shut down”. Fully stocked/”prepped” Stateside, but better/”higher” ground exists in central america for family.

      Names being Named, Companies being “exposed”

      …Who is DRA Chief Joanna Wintrol ?
      What is/was Project P782.
      Ever hear of – know someone who workz for Black & Veatch..Actively studying how to spread weaponized crimean hemorrhagic fever with Pigeons and Ducks that migrate thru Russia ???

      Hard to imagine what USA response would be to this Information coming out about one of our neighbors housing bioweapons labs aimed at US citizens next door.

      WTF do you think Russian reaction (s) will be to this horror ?

  8. You know George. I just went outside and noticed a couple little birds started building a nest in one of those trees. The trees that eveyone thought dead, and now are alive, beautiful and blossoming. They are all singing nesting. Tis the season.

    Tree of life
    And
    The Tree of Wisdom.

    I think that is a Dandy choice for a place to start a family, for two little birds. Good for them.

    Hmmmmmmm.

    The Birds and the Bees, the flowers in the trees, and the moon up above and a little thing called…

    I dont need to tell the last word. You know it.

    Que: ~ Wheel in the Sky ~

    https://youtu.be/XrzVpvtsFf0

    Journey

  9. “Is that actionable?” – That sentence has been floating around in my head for a month now. Must have gotten it from you. I was quite satisfied with: “Doesn’t mean a damn thing !”

  10. Well George, you have succeeded in confusing an old engineer before he has had his morning coffee. The new site layout is OK…. it just took me a few tries to navigate previous days comments and find the new structure.

    • The only thing I wish for is an edit function for already submitted posts. That would probably require a log-in function like Peoplenomics to make sure you’d only be able to edit your own posts, though.

  12. Even Armstrong is a can kicker now. No facists in America. No way . No Klaus schwab followers . Nah of course not . Gotta drag this depression out till we make plenty

  13. George, new site format does not let me get into Firefox Reader View mode, F9. Your advertisers may be upset, but I like it because my 73 year old eyes find the larger text easier to read. Any chance it can be restored?
    Thank you for your work and insights. Every morning: weather.gov, then Urbansurvival.

  14. Soon some of these gurus will grow fur and bark. Bit of talking in tongues . Maybe some religious sheet with Klaus schwab as pope . They can sark his Kok and ride the waves together. All bought off and stitched up. 40 a year to get membership

  15. Fellow Earthlings,

    Vicariously cast off your gravity boots and cares!

    Axiom Space AX-1 mission countdown continues presently passing through 12 days 16 hours to launch. Planned liftoff is from Kennedy Space Center for an eight day private astronaut visit to the ISS. Meals, lodging, and return space flight included in the estimated $55million fare. One imagines normal revenue sharing will apply amongst the ISS partners.

    We now return you to regularly scheduled global conflict programming.

  16. what yadas on tonite our time . war . depression . patriotism , inflation , gold guru , market dates for wave riding , covid , how did i forget that one , fauci , gates , recipes, putin , ohio class subs (la better ) crime guns soros , middle east , solar stuff , art cashins horoscope bull market , da boyz , fibonacci , wave theory oops double mentioned or just downright fake news . yeeeebbbbaaaaa georgey you are a shill

  17. how smart is moose hard getting this bloke in your head. not here boy . sincerely insert

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