Something unusual this morning: A “news” section that begins with a personal note: I have what I call the “earthquake tireds” this morning.
If you’re not a long-term reader, a word or two of explanation is in order before we launch into the bitcoin discussion….
Sometimes the normally “high-energy George” has what feels like a wave of extreme tiredness that washes over him for a day, sometimes several. It’s not unpleasant per se, but I have learned over the years that this feeling often comes ahead of a major earthquake somewhere in the world. Whether that works this time is an unknown to me. But wanted to mention is because normally after my morning vitamin regimen and 16 ounces of coffee, I’m read to rock & roll. Not today, though. Feels like there’s an earthquake nearby on the timeline. We shall see. 6.6-6.9, maybe?
We resisted the buy the dips idea in the stock market on Friday. The reasons should be clear: There is a path to further downside action. You see it in the futures this morning, already down 200 on the Dow when I looked earlier.
Bitcon (not coin right now) was trading down into the $7,500 range. And making a few headlines in the process: A few you might find interesting:
Our trend channel analysis suggests a staunchly anti-coin position for now, but this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE:
The good news, such as it is? If we base a run at technical analysis and Elliott Waves (and channels and such) on the notion of “typical prices” the decline bitcoin is in now COULD turn at the completion of wave III down. That means I will stop laughing at the BTFD (*buy the freakin dips) crowd once we get down to 7,267 and I might actually understand them if we get as low as $6,500 on this decline.
That would set up a Wave IV rally to the range of 11,743 to 12,987.
Thing is, though, this is where Bitcoin’s real future will be decided. That’s because the TOP of the present trend channel is around $14,000.
The area where the potential break higher comes is IF the trend channel top comes down to, oh, 11,500 which it would in a month or so, and then Bitcoin rallies and breaks through the channel, that would be WILDLY bullish for bitcoins. That’s because the downwards channel would be broken to the upside and from there, a run to $35,000 becomes almost likely.
However, if or when we get down to wave V – which would be the case if the decline is impulsive rather than corrective – we’re still looking at something around $1,000 and maybe as low as $453. There’s also the “negative number” case, which would be the funeral for bitcoin.
Is it worth playing?
When I look at declines in cryptos and channels in the stock market, stocks look much better. The brokerage accounts download into TurboTax and stock profits aren’t red flags with drug enforcement.
While it is amusing to hear the latest hypester’s pitch (“Bitcoin price BOOST: Expert says crypto is not going away and says price is NOTHING“), around here we’re more data-driven and stories like “Bitcoin, the virtual currency, has become a massive energy hog” and driving other stories like “SEC drags feet on approving bitcoin ETFs” seem to more than balance the coinster’s promotional efforts.
Which a bounce may come ($12,997 tops) until the 3 waves down or 5 waves down clarifies in the charts, you might do better at a sports book.
Communism’s Slo-Mo American Take-Down
There is a pretty good case to be made that perestroika was a joke – a serious move to take down the West without firing a shot. How? Why, by pretending to give up the fight, of course.
What is it? Since most people are too dumb to understand: Perestroika was promoted by folks like Gorbachev: It was “ a political movement for reformation within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union during the 1980s until 1991 widely associated with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and his glasnost (meaning “openness”) policy reform. The literal meaning of perestroika is “restructuring”, referring to the restructuring of the Soviet political and economic system.”
Face it: The Russians are brilliant chess players. And faced with economic disaster due to Star Wars spending and Reagan’s massive ramp, what choice did the Russians really have?
The unconventional view is that Communists never gave up their bid to take-down America, though. And anyone who can read should (about here) remember the huge input to our most recent president – who wave heavily influenced by his left-wing, radicalized upbringing.
And yet, most people don’t see it: Despite the every once leaks even from the pages of the liberal mainstream.
Take this morning’s Washington Post story “Think California politics is on the far-left fringe? Just wait for the next elections.” We’ve long held that California will be the first “soft-splinter” in the coming break-up of America. They don’t like feds and they do like comrades.
You don’t have the luxury of some of our data analytics tools, like Grady’s Nostracodeus software, but we do. And when we tell the software to in effect “Get us an update on the global march of communism…” it comes up with stories like these – ignored by most stupid Americans dumbed down by social(ist) media:
Anyone with HALF A BRAIN can see it, if they’d only take time to look.
Our gentled-down, not too paranoid version for Monday, is that the reason that Donald Trump is such a target of the Lefties (which still has major influence in Hollywood, late night TV and such as all that) is that quietly, behind all the “Trump-Hater movement” the president can be found acting in stories like “Trump singles out 4 ‘communist and socialist dictatorships’ and Trump opposes dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela.”
You know, if the international communist movement wasn’t alive and well he shouldn’t have to do that. But he does, you see – and that belies the International Movement’s alive and well. Cuba is still communist and 100 mile from us, and Venezuela is how much of the energy picture?
Mush-headed Americans, taken by fluoride, an erosion of excellence and controlled by liberals in education…why, was there ever any doubt of the outcome?
It is, sadly, the glue that binds so much of the news together. It’s a classic form of the Russian Ballet: the innocent stooges, manipulated by a party-agreeable media, and acting to subvert their own country from within. Graceful, I have to admit.
Ah, but you probably have figured all this out without our help. Still, check me on this: Hit your favorite news search engines and toss the word “communist” in and see what comes out.
The Big Lie is the Wall in Berlin came down in 1989 and that was the end of it. But, Russia has learned from their Chinese communist pals that history is made in the longer term, not the shorter. So if the “fake their own death” with a double-dose of perestroika seemed a little too pat, maybe there’s a reason for that:
Even now, the idea is being sold that the US was the bad guys in the Cold War, something I think most of us reject. We’re here because we held some critical lines and the Cuban Missile showdown.
Still, historical revisionism takes time and lots of articles like “How the U.S. Govt Spread Anti-Communist Propaganda in 1950’s” make the rounds even now. By inference the US was wrong. No, we weren’t. We’re here, today, but for how long? Depressing topic.
Russia knows: Who needs guns, when the media will do just fine? Putin has to be laughing as he shepherds the narrative along. Why just look what it’s done for…
The Dead Sun & Climate Change
Oh, that. Well, here’s the real deal: Sun’s dead – at least for this solar cycle. If it goes into a Maunder Minimum type decline, you will be begging for some warming of any kind. So here’s the latest data just out today:
Take a deep breath and notice something for me, would you? I mean besides the decline from 2000 is why warming had to go and be remarketed instead as change.
Notice the sun spots about ended in 2009. Thing back on your economic history…what was going on? Bottom of housing bubble collapse, right?
Now look where we are and where we’re going. Ask your visual cortex to analyze current market conditions (bitcoin and stocks) and where the sunspots are going.
Oh, did I mention the Dow will drop down another 175-200 at the open?
“You see, Kaplotnik, we will rally the dopes around a regular cycles of weather variance and their belief will inform us as to who will obey The State’s global government….”
Brilliant, simply brilliant chess.
When in Doubt? War or Coup
See if you can connect the dots here:
Never, never let a good crisis go to waste.
Moron the ‘morrow, then…