Downdraft Pending?

With the early futures down 125 points, in advance of economic data, it’s not hard to imagine any number of reasons why the US stock markets shouldn’t have a face-plant pending.

A few things coming to mind – a checklist of sorts:

With the U.S. Balance sheet (in a sec.) looking lame, and with a less than stellar Covid future peeking out again, the rationale for infinitely priced markets is evaporating.  The art (less science) will be calling the turn.

Early birds are already selectively shorting, but the longer-term decline is only now arising in longer-term charts.  It’s down to a matter of when we’ve “sprung.”

America’s Accounting Time Bomb

While the Fed has been  talking up all of its “thumbs on the scale of price discovery”  and how we need more this (and that), we see a problematic accounting issue lurking.

The 10-year Treasury Note is still hovering around 1.684% early.  While that doesn’t sound bad to those of us old enough to remember 13% rates in the early 1980s, it’s still up almost 3-times since August of last year when the possible 10-year low of 0.51% was marked.

Three knock-on’s follow from such moves in the bond market: 

First is that interest on the $28-trillion of public debt swamps us.  At 0.51%, the interest alone on the Public Debt is $142.8-billion a year.  Spread over the 150-million people (roughly) who work anymore, that’s $952 per worker.

With the interest rate higher, the interest jumps to $471.5 billion which trickles down to $3,143 per worker.

Second is that company sales must increase 1.684% just to keep up with interest rate changes.  In other words, a zero-growth figure in such an inflation setting still needs to grow to tread water.

Third is rising rates will begin to unwind some of the massive gains in real estate.  That’s because while the total amount people pay might not change much (until the slow-down dynamic picks up speed), the proportion going to sellers goes down and the amounts going to finance companies (lenders) goes up.

Fourth and fifth?  Well, you can figure that companies claiming high growth rates, but not paying dividends will soften, I assume.  And then there’s the evaporation of “the Wealth Effect” as general prices increases come down the pike.  Which will lessen demand, leading to lay-offs, or worse.


This is only one (but perhaps least socially disruptive) track through present economic times.  As crumby as it sounds, though, it’s far preferable to deflationary collapse (less likely because of unlimited printing capacity of government, but bounded by the “pushing wet noodles around” problem – which is why “free money” under the guise of CV-19 is one way to “push” the economy.  The last option would be a Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation.

In this view, we survey the investment world alternatives and see contrary indicators:

  • Bitcoin (and cryptos) are rampaging higher in a hyperinflation indicating way.  Lesser, but still large gains are being seen in “hot city” real estate.
  • Stocks generally are bidding up, though not quite at hyperinflation rates by broader indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
  • Value plays (stocks paying dividends, fully paid-up assets, and agriculture-based enterprises) are better positioned for the possible deflationary outcome.  But some consider such stocks boring as hell.

Anyone can make a strong case for any of the above.  But, a cornerstone of the UrbanSurvival Philosophy is to “Play for Minimum Loss” and eschew “Playing for Maximum Gains.

The Crypto Crowd can trash the environment and squander resources (wasting energy on mining) all day long.  But making-up “secret numbers” when 7.7 billion people need something to eat seems ethically bankrupt.  Then again, so does selling digital tripe to Greater Fools under the guise of it being a “breakthrough technology.”  No, fire is a breakthrough technology.  Wheels. Irrigation.  Don’t get me started.  Crypto will always be one quantum computing breakthrough from collapse.

When I see stories like Miami’s Mayor Wants to Make His City a Crypto Hub, I am reminded of the crassness of politicians.  Always looking for a cause (or buzz) to hitch their wagon to.

It suffices to note that notional financial abstractions are less edible than what comes out of a vegetable garden.  Yet, amazingly, in a world where people can’t even figure-out what sex they are, we’re somehow not surprised at prevailing lunacy levels.

Press Release?

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is our PR pick-of-the-day:

Not a happy-looking trend, is it?

Exports of goods increased $30.9 billion, to $387.5 billion, and imports of goods increased $36.4 billion, to $640.5 billion. The increases in both exports and imports reflected increases in nearly all major categories. The increase in exports was led by industrial supplies and materials and capital goods, and  the increase in imports was led by industrial supplies and materials; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; and consumer goods.

After the number, Dow futures were down 125 and the S&P was down 12-something.

Two hours in we will see some home sales data.

Now the Good Stuff

A number of medical stories of extreme interest to aging persons are making the rounds:

The first has to do with our old friend gout.  Which follows from having serum uric acid levels (SUA) being too high.  Turns out, in research out of China, report in the Journal of Hypertension (cited by  that “Baseline and change in serum uric acid predict the progression from prehypertension to hypertension: a prospective cohort study.

What comes into focus for me *(and this seems very useful) is a sequence that goes like this:

  • Eating lots of meat, especially pork, tends to raise SUA levels.
  • Over time, SUA levels indicate a track toward CHD.
  • And so one asks whether early intervention in SUA management can work as well (and who knows, better?) than the statin approach?

Very interesting concept.

Viagra for Longer Life!

I kid you not:  Story over on today offers a great discussion of how Viagra (and similar-acting) medications may extend lifespan!

Damned if I can remember where I read the story, but somewhere in the deep filing-system-of-mind there’s a memory that Viagra was initially isolated as a blood pressure moderating drug.  But, when the “hard effects” became noticed, the drug maker made a decision to take it to market for its erectile dysfunction treatment potential.  The reports coming out now suggest a kind of “second life” for such “stiff dickeners,” as it were…

By the way, Ure has also noticed in his own personal experiments that a good level of Vitamin D (with K) and a good multi-vite and a delta-8 CBD seems to have…er…useful effects.  This is not medical advice, of course.

We have a nickel bet ready to place that no matter how grody sex in your seventies, eighties, and beyond may sound (when young) the longer you’ll live.  Ure’s Crackpot Theory of Hormone Cycling.

For the International File

Norway Blocks Sale of Rolls-Royce Engine Maker to Russian Group.

And Russia Forecasters Warn Over Siberia Forest Fires.  Air purifier sales for the US West Coast to rise?

And the Chinese are quietly moving to a digital currency (Digital yuan pilots making steady progress: official) but will they offer convertibility in from other crypto’s?  We doubt it, but we’ll know soon-enough.

Around the Ranch

3D printing:  Shameless product tout: $25 for four ounces, but I ran some prints overnight and 3D Printer Adhesive Glue Bed Weld Original on a 60C hot glass printer bed is PFM (pure freaking magic).  Just the ticket to turn out KC-135 parts that have been orphaned, lol.

In the Wood shop:  Always happens:  As soon as I order a new tool, the price drops.  Latest is Rockler’s Router Table Box Joint Jig which is down to $79 from $88 last week.

For those not into real woodworking, a box joint has straight end-fingers.  the Dovetail joints are prettier, but take more time to crank out than setting the jig up on the shaper table.  Zing, zing….

Ham Radio antennas:  One of my buddies in the local ham club wanted to know more about Ure’s Super Antenna.  Sent him links to the three articles that outline its evolution:  The first is here:

Radio Prepping: Ham Radio “Super Antenna II” – UrbanSurvival Radio Prepping: Ham Radio “Super Antenna II”

And the second part

Ham Radio Notes: Super-Antenna III – UrbanSurvival Ham Radio Notes: Super-Antenna III

And then to wrap up:

Ham Radio Super Antenna – Plans, Build, Results – UrbanSurvival Ham Radio Super Antenna – Plans, Build, Results.

Waiting for reader Hank out on the Big Island to add some long-side wires to his OCFD to see if he gets similar results.

RV’ing:  My consigliere is the proud owner of a 30-foot class ultra-light travel trailer.  Might bring it down here for Thanksgiving.  Being a lot of plastic (and an aluminum hitch for weight reduction) it poses some interesting antenna design issues.

Don’t know if you remember, but my buddy (the Major) has had issues getting his Icom-7000 and AH-3 to load up well on his (also) lot’s of plastic travel trailer.

Humor?  Speaking of (the Major, who married a Captain, whose son will likely be a Lt. Col. shortly) chastised me at martini time here for my PGA/LPGA remarks Monday.  “Don’t get worked up about it, after all, aren’t most golfers swingers?”  (rim shot, audience groans)…

Off to a million projects.  And a discussion of non-financial investments on Peoplenomics tomorrow..

Write when you get rich,

41 thoughts on “Downdraft Pending?”

  1. Anyone who has taken the time to read or listen to interviews with Geert Vanden Bossche if not do yourself a service and check out his credentials He is Mr Vaccine he develops vaccines. He generally believes that these vaccines as wonderful as they are were much to late as the virus had already mutated multiple times by the time they were introduced and that he thinks that they may have compromised individual immune systems. He has pleaded for them to stop using these vaccines and has sent a letter to the WHO declaring that this probably the single most important health emergency of international concern – the WHO as yet has not responded,,,,,as in all things in life everyone has their own choices to make …..

  2. Another headline for ya, George –
    “Leaked Email: ‘Biden White House’ Is Out, ‘Biden-Harris’ White House Is In”

    Things are right on track for Bribem to go away and KDD to assume the “Pretendency” as Clif calls it. Who will be her VP, though? Hillary? Obummer? Pelosi? Schumer? Or, may be even, Oh God, Adam Schiff?? Nothing good is coming out of this and secession is looking like the ultimate answer to it for Texas. The State PTB will try everything to negotiate with D.C. but the border situation will eventually require unilateral action from Texas, N.M., and Aridzona to stem this tide. California has already succumbed to its liberal agenda.

    I think even you, George, were saying last Fall, or some time back then, that it was a foregone conclusion that Bribem would only be there for a few months then step down due to mental deficiency.

    • I think she is smarter than to have ole Hillary or anyone in that family as VP… LOL LOL LOL… seems life spans of their friends is drastically reduced by severe depression.. or muggings LOL LOL… any adverse implications is just fake News…

  3. Sir, regarding the vaccinated catching covid: i thought the vaccines purpose was to mitigate the severity of the disease, and that no vaccine prevents infection. I only know what i read in the papers.

  4. ‘The cases, say reports, involved Pfizer and Moderna shots and the cases were mild. But, they were cases…’

    Just to be clear, a covid ‘case’ is nothing more than a positive test. Run the PCR procedure (it’s not really a test) on high cycles, and voila – a ‘positive test.’ Now, mind you, the PCR procedure was never meant to be part of a diagnostic test, but it is the key to understanding the covid con.

    So, I post these snip-its just to help some ‘open minds’ stay abreast of the scam. I know many people believe the ‘governments’ no matter what, but that’s just a people flaw that has been around for thousands of years within populations. Goebbels and others were the early versions of propaganda ministers who had rather primitive tools to work with, but certainly people’s proclivity to always believe their governments were the biggest aides that propaganda ministers possessed.

    • The consensus(such that it is) is that anything over 25 cycles of PCR re-covid is not strongly indicative of anything. Over 35 cycles and you can get fruits and nuts to show positive. PCR could probably be standardized to the point that it’s useful as a screening test, but that won’t happen politically. Personally, I refuse to even take a test.

      I’m still shocked every day that anyone would trust a politician about anything without cross-checking and validating their statements. Politicians can’t be held liable for their lies(even at the Dominion voting booths), so there’s no reason at all to trust them or support them. Until some semblence of integrity returns, why engage?

      Think for yourself and follow your heart.

    • I couldn’t believe my ears last week when a good friend of ours told us he and his wife got the “vaccinations”, I forget which flavor, “because you can have this thing and show no symptoms, walk by someone and kill them.” Normally this guy is smarter than a whip, great businessman but evidently immune to anything I’ve been sending him for the past 6 or 8 months about the virus. I just had to sit there and shake my head “no” when they asked if we were going to get it and say nothing else out of respect for them. Hope I don’t turn into a pall bearer before the year is out.

      • Well Bill he could have been required to get it. We had to get the vaccine…wife works in the medical field.. if she intended to keep her career it was mandatory..because I’m her husband it was required also for immediate family.. no arguments were accepted..
        I was talking to a social worker friend that stopped by for coffee. He was telling me it’s even stricter at the hospital and clinics.. requiring them to show proof. Aka that vaccine card..

      • Oh, and my wife is the only one in her office that hasn’t taken the jab. She’s also the only one that knows how to DO stuff and I’m their tech guy.

        Leverage. LOL.

  5. George thanks for the tip. “On a 60C hot glass printer bed is PFM”.

    Might I suggest installing a Hall Effect Sensor on the extruder gantry (BL Touch) to adjust for uneven beds. It will adjust the Z height while printing, especially when working with PETG and smaller Z offsets. So far no sticking since the install.

    Also thanks to your readers for the kind words on yesterday’s comment and post.

  6. my personal observation is these mass shootings seem to occur simultaneously to gun ban pushes. The word “Coordinated” comes to mind.

  7. Ure acting like dancing fool,again.

    U should know better, Cyrpto is becoming, the money of the realm, in our shared
    Guess my Litecoin Visa card will go the way of the crazy Dutch tulips.

    Its backed by Litecoin I put into it. Go ahead – put that in Ure keypad slot on the payment system keyboard – no interest charged, in fact making money off credit balance.

    Really need to get over missing this one(crypto), being married to the beast what – I’m wrong all the time – course corrections – everything is good.

    Theta & Theta Fuel – without which there will be no future Internet, no more bandwidth.. recommended this below a $1 , today $10 – tomorrow triplekissassblaster!

    and Litecoin.

    Litecoin just completed “installing” Mimble Wimble – this is huge!

    Testing is live and should go on for only several weeks -hopefully. What is mimble wimble – it is De Centralized Privacy -like Monero, but DECENTRALIZED.
    ..And, it is lightening quick and very robust..Bitcoin = gold, Litecoin = silver – roughly speaking.

    Reviewing known covert19 plandemic response – What is a T-Cell? What are Anti-Bodies ? Why do ALL Vaccines -ALL- NOT Work without Zinc ?

    C’mon mr. Wizard how can a “vaccines” effective rate be anywhere near 90%,80%,70%,60%,50%,40%,30% – when the Infection rate is ??? 7.9 Billion – World Pop./ 123,000,000.00 infected/cases covert19 = .015 %

    Its just like Latin – EVERYTHING ever written in LATIN is FALSE-FAKE – 100 % made up by some monks somewhere in antiquity.

    – FAKE coins,artifacts, manuscripts.. Western Civ. is all Made Up, just as is taught in the most prestigious college in China. nuff truth 4 1 week.

    T-cells Produce Anti- Bodies – coot splained over a year ago about impossibility of Vaccine for a bioweapon ? antidotes & prophylactics it is .

    “They” had to change the Law, the language via emergency, in order to call it a vaccine – even Moderna website calls it a “operating system”

    “its a bird, its a plane” the battle lines waver back and forth in the heavens above, one has to wonder ..where be the knights-T? and the most sought after dark stone in the galaxy..seems the hour is getting late..

    • My thought visits a lot similar to cutting the horns off of a bull or declawed a cat..I think things are moving pretty quick. To keep things heading in the right direction and to fulfill a set agenda to control the masses, there has to be a major gun grab campaign.
      At this point theres to many Americans that have guns.even after the BLM and Antifa hobbling the police with their riots. Theres still to many with arms in to many directions to out right control. Once they get the public disarmed then they can mass herd the people in any direction that they want.
      Right now it seems like the Democrats are pretty much doing anything they want regardless of what anyone else has to say.. I think at the rate things are happening that it wont take very long for this all to come to a pinnacle.

      • Mr. Obama did the same thing. He would address PopUS and tell us what his focus group or polling said we wanted to hear, then merrily do whatever he damn’ well pleased.

        The difference between the Obama Administration and the Biden Administration is Biden’s focus group is the mainstream media, who are no more in-touch with PopUS than the career pols and bureaucrats in D.C. Essentially, Obama told us what we wanted to hear, Biden is telling us what we need to believe.

  8. George,

    in terms of the price dropping on tools, I can add my two cents of limited experience.

    The Habitat for Humanity “Restores” where people bring used furniture, kitchen things, etc. get some amazing donations. I volunteered there for some recent period of time. Many baby boomers do not do their own work, and when their fathers die or retire to Florida, are dropping off some real value and the store sells it for a song, some good quality/useful stuff at a fraction of the price of Home Depot, and sometimes even negotiable downwards from there. Worth an occasional trip if not too far out of your way to “in town” visits. I have done limited home construction projects as an adult, and helped my engineer father with several more substantial projects as a kid (large Catholic family, home needed expansion and repairs as we grew), and the donations made me salivate!

    • “The Habitat for Humanity “Restores” where people bring used” stuff.

      Last year I was shopping for an FET board for one of my inverters. It was on sale at Ebay by Habitat for Humanity. How odd! It was $130 and free shipping. I immediately bought it as those boards usually go for $400+. Upon inquirery they replied that it was an item that JUST came in and sorry no history with it. I installed it and it worked. You just never know when the Universe will smile at you! A win-win for both Habitat for Humanity and me.

    • Our store had 4′ LED fixtures for $0.99 ea new. Bought a Sansui stereo for $15 and flipped to a local collector for $150.

    • ” terms of the price dropping on tools”

      Not just tools…. we had the antique road show on.. rare collectables had dropped in value to about a third of what it was valued just before the start of the collapse..people aren’t spending money on collecting..

  9. Well I can’t tell if we had 5 waves down and a 3 wave 62% retrace, or if the preceding drop is in 3 waves. When you don’t know and you have a possible third wave setup, the best thing to do is guess with a tight stop (Yes, gamble. You don’t want to miss or have to chase a third wave. Just exit the damn thing if it goes the wrong way).

    I shorted the retrace at 3955 yesterday and will see where this sucker goes. Right now, nowhere.

    • To me looks like the shorts (on parabolic sar and fast and slow stochs) seems likely to end today down and then eat more bear meat tomorrow am/…just as a dart toss

      • I forgot to mention — Also noteworthy was that the 62% retrace tagged the underside of a broken 4 hour trendline, so that instilled a little more confidence in the set-up. Even if it goes anywhere, it looks like a 4th wave. I don’t think this the ginormous drop we are looking for. That may come after the next new high.

    • The trend should be Ure friend – the trend is up, has been up and will continue up for a while longer.
      No matta – what common sense sayz
      No matta – what Ure valuation sayz -it just dont matta – Higher 4 longer..

      So, “Welcome to the Machine” -P Floyd.

  10. here we go again !!! another big facist talk up , big rampin, dollar shortin, and the big wopper !! sheetcoin and yellow dog !!! yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy!!! happy days. the great reset to hell

  11. His pro-democrat/anti-Trump/pro-ISIS page has already been scrubbed from farcebook.

    So, opinions… How long before “Ahmad al-Aliwi al-Issa” completely ceases to exist, and is replaced by “Ahmie Alissa” or some other touchy-feely name, so’s folks don’t notice the Islamic terror link? Yahoo has already scrubbed his last name into “Alissa…”

    Should this be a betting pool or a lottery question…?

  12. great psyops here today!!! new highs !!! bullsheet ewave stuff, fast talking guru stuff .. owww scary for a bear oww yeah . good on yah george yah never change .. yum yum yum yum money money money

  13. George,

    “ when the “hard effects” became noticed, the drug maker made a decision to take it to market for its erectile dysfunction treatment potential. ”

    I’ve heard that Viagra works so well because of its 2 active ingredients…

    …2 parts MyDicksAdrill and 1 part FixAflat

    Ahem, er works for me.

  14. Here’s one for all of you georgey guru crowd . The pain of loosing money far exceeds the joy of making it . Owe yeah . Get all sort of sheet and enjoy . Money always finds the best home

  15. “Waiting for reader Hank out on the Big Island to add some long-side wires to his OCFD to see if he gets similar results.”

    I’m waiting too… for it to stop raining here! Nothing like a windward tropical mountain slope to squeeze the atmosphere like a sponge. Ham friend down the road has disassembled a commercial fiberglass VHF collinear antenna to dry it out and seal it better. It filled with water after less than a year in service in this environment.

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