Know what time it is?
The Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists labeled the beginning of this year as “100-seconds to Midnight.” At which time, turn off the lights, and settle into the remnant’s struggle to pick ourselves up again in a few thousand years.
The truly paranoid think the president is already in hiding and is using this “vacation week” to send in a body-double. Fueled by stories like The same Joe Biden suddenly looks different – CNNPolitics. The giveaway will be if the “new Biden” begins thinking and speaking clearer…but only if you’re, oh, paranoid!
With Joe to Go, tomorrow is our “hot day.” August 17th. Plus, or minus some weather-wiggle, one of our sources tells us.
The next hot day after this one is more Taiwan-centric. Consigliere figures mid-September to put the Crash right with moon cycles in early November. We don’t think World has enough patience to wait.
Labor Day is risky for Taiwan because that’s when the best tides of the year for an amphibious landing take place. A hint will be yet-another extension of military drills in the area. But those are ongoing right now which is why…well, hold up. Let’s do War Weather, right?
Winds for the rest of the week will be generally from the East in Ukraine. Which means if Russia ups the ante and goes theater-sized tactical nukes? No fallout on Russian soil, and little – if any – on NATO countries. Seems to us that East-Southeast winds will preserve a lot of the ag value of the country if UKR-war gets escalated to any crazier levels. Oh, wait, they already have: Putin Accuses U.S. Of Prolonging Ukraine Conflict, Labels Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit ‘Planned Provocation’. Try to wipe off that silly “surprised” look, Vlad. It’s what we do anymore. Consider yourself lucky we shipped all our critical factories to China, including our bioweapons, right?
Now, about Out West? Winds around Taiwan will be easterly today and tomorrow, but there’s a window after that of a week, or better, with 10-knots, or less. And from the West, which would put the “wind at China’s back” invading the Island of Formosa to complete the “reunification of China.”
And the Hot Air will flow hot and heavy as the Big Lie “inflation fighting bill” is due to be signed. In most coverage, like President Biden to sign Inflation Reduction Act into law, there’s a good bit of happy-talk. How can a cap of $2,000 on out-of-pocket Medicare costs be bad, right? Well, this is a big we can’t afford and even now, Social Security is headed for at least a 20% cut by 2035 if there’s no reform. If a retirement move is on your dance card, 38 States That Don’t Tax Social Security Benefits. But, 12 do. Texas does not.
Dems are already grand-standing on Social Security with the mid-terms less than three months out. Grand-standing is what they do best. Cue the (whoever it is) Biden says Democrats will deliver ‘stronger’ Social Security, warns a GOP majority could have it ‘sliced.’ Honest dollar, low inflation or massive inflation driving social security higher? Hmm. Not much of a choice, pard!
Then we also have a small wager that runaway political prosecutors will attempt to “perp walk” former president Trump soon. Big Ears tells us that wouldn’t be “big enough” to matter, but given the mood of the country? Might be.
Even now, the left-wing media is full of stories about The Donald being a possible flight risk. Especially with mainstream reports like Trump now claims FBI agents seized three of his PASSPORTS during the Mar-a-Lago raid. The Dept. of Justice, meanwhile, doesn’t want to release details: DOJ opposes making public details in Mar-a-Lago search warrant’s probable cause affidavit. Which has fueled speculation across the board. Who’s the snitch?
How come Hillary got off with all their crap? Trump didn’t have an email server full of secrets, did he? No Uranium One deals? No Benghazi’s? No Foundation? I’ve noticed that if a republican is involved in a news item, Wikipedia tends to use the term “conspiracy theory” while if the (believed) perps are democrats, the headings are “controversies.” Owning the label maker has recently been noticed in the definition of what a Recession is. (We trust you read the Wikipedia page Talk:Recession/FAQ – Wikipedia?) Back to our line of inquiry:
Of course, there are other large-scale events that could drop as the week unfolds.
Been a whole month now since New York City went on a public nuke prepping binge: NYC Issues New Nuclear Attack PSA, Here’s The Reaction To The Warning. Weird, right? A possible 9/11 LIHOP/MIHOP story? (Let It Happen On Purpose/Made It Happen On Purpose says one controversy.) Yet another excuse for government to seize even more Freedoms including speech, especially from the web’s social media platforms. Which is why we don’t play in that sandbox.
For this morning, we’ll just paw through the headlines, remain in cash until things sort themselves out.
Money, Markets, and Diets
Meantime, no lunch money this week: We were caught on the wrong side of the market Monday which (very strangely reversed higher at midsession). We’ll have to wait for another opportune moment to enter a short position. As we told Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend, from the Friday close, the Dow could go up another thousand and still be in an Elliott Wave 2 rally from previous all-time highs to our way of thinking. Which is never advice – just common-sense things to keep in the back of your mind.
Friday of this week is options expiration and really, now: Is there any reason God would allow a one-month Dow gain of almost 8.4 percent? A one-month gain of 14.5 percent in the NASDAQ or a slightly lower 11.2 percent rise in the S&P from one options expiration to the next? Perhaps rumors of a “Good and Just God” are a bit oversold? Or HE’s thrown-in with the money-printers and inflation promoters. Hmm. (Pass the collection plate?)
Housing Numbers Fall “Bigly”
Those higher interest rates? Suckeroo, buddy:
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 9.6 percent (±8.6 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,599,000 and is 8.1 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the July 2021 rate of 1,573,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 916,000; this is 10.1 percent (±10.8 percent)* below the revised June figure of 1,019,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 514,000.
Wheaties and wishes, kiddies. Federal Housing numbers in a picture:
At the detail level, where are all those new home starts Slow was promising? After the numbers, Dow futures down only 21.
Hang on for Industry Production and Capacity Utilization from the Printing Reserve at 9:15 Eastern.
Who’s Needling Us?
Here we go again: Pondering the line between nrews coverage and vaccine commercials: Should parents delay kids’ second COVID vaccine? Here’s what the research says (nature.com).
And why were we not surprised to read With monkeypox, profits are once again being put ahead of protecting life?
Thrills and Spills
Spills came up hot in our word frequency run this morning:
- Source of Rouge River oil spill identified by state officials (detroitnews.com)
- What’s in the water? Investigators say chemical spill turned Indiana creek bright blue.
- Coast Guard responds to small oil spill near San Juan Island.
- Chromium spill crisis avoided as Huron River contact restrictions lifted | WEMU-FM
- More than 10,000 gallons of water, sewage spill into San Luis Obispo creek.
Interesting event clustering.
The other interesting cluster is the word “shortage.”
- New federal requirements for entry-level school bus drivers (kxan.com)
- Coke, Pepsi, RC Cola confirm sugar shortage in Philippines (rappler.com)
- And a power shortage in China? Toyota suspends operations at China plant due to power shortage | Automotive News
Always interesting to look at keyword clusters.
Press Release Pile
Every day I thumb through a ton of press releases – stopping to read interesting ones – and a lot seem to deal with food. Here’s a recent holdover that struck us as “interesting…”
Like chocolate and peanut flavors, do you? “SNICKERS™ Shakers Seasoning Blend combines the classic chocolate bar’s delicious blend of chocolate, peanut, and caramel flavors to recreate the mouth-watering taste of a SNICKERS® bar and is a delicious addition to ice cream, cookies, milkshakes, pancakes, yogurt and more.” Store shelves soon. On your pancakes, maybe?
Reader LOOB who is famous locally for his homemade wines and spirits will be thrilled to notice this press release: Craft Spirits Market to record USD 36.82 Bn growth — Evolving Opportunities with Bacardi Ltd. and Beam Suntory Inc. Here’s to prescient beveraging, LOOB…
Reminds me not to plant too many cows this year: Rising Trend of Veganism to Steer Plant-based Milk Market Past US$ 32 Billion by 2031. If there’s anyone alive by then.
Sign of the season in the frozen section: MY/MOCHI ICE CREAM CELEBRATES AUTUMN’S ANNUAL RETURN OF THEIR PUMPKIN SPICE FALL FAVORITE. (*I hate it when PR people SCREAM IN ALL CAPS!!!)
Outside of Food and Beverage notes, these were kind of interesting, too:
Green crypto effort: Mecobit Starts New Era in Solar Powered Cryptocurrency Mining
Astro what? Texas Drought Conditions Continue to Devastate the State, SYNLawn® Artificial Grass Offers a Promising Solution. Here, if we turn our back on the yard for more than an hour, it will be overgrown.
Wonder if they called Buffett and Munger first? Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern merger proposal receives clearance from Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
And seriously now, don’t people read about tourists being killed by drug cartels in Mexico? Denial maybe? Long-haul travel surges and Mexico ranks #1 for Americans this Fall, says Tripadvisor data. Might be safer to weekend in Chicago…just saying.
Off to yard work and checking voicemail to see if Publishers Clearinghouse called overnight.
Write when you get rich,