My, what a grand time was had by all Thursday: The market cratered some 18-hundred odd points and narrowing missed the 7-percent time-out dinger going into the closing half-hour.
We will go over a lot of the details in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com report, but the bottom line is that IF we rally this morning strongly until the European close, then fall back into the close, it could set the stage for even more vicious action next week.
In the meantime, however, my focus has been split between timing in (and out) of the market plus trying to get the web site to display all our charts and graphics on Firefox, Chrome, and Opera. Things are working well on Internet “Exploder” and Edge.
We Did OK Thursday, Though
One reason is all that focus on timing I keep yammering on about. Playing the market on a short-term basis is very much like taking on a video poker machine. And, as a result I closed out a nice short position at Jun 11, 2020 3:26 PM ET.
We don’t talk about our winning trades much – we have more losers – but when we win we do occasionally make “lunch money.” This time lunch for “more than just us.”
Not that money matters, entirely. As one commenter aptly noted, this is more about being ready for pending global collapse than it is collecting paper trinkets. And that’s damn good advice.
We’ll be looking at whether re-entering a short position makes sense, but what will matter is how things develop today. And how this decline lines up with the Feb.19 on decline into the last third of March.
…is still going around.
You’ll remember we were telling you a couple of months back while tee-pee was short that the top of Wave 2 (market) which is also about proximate to the trough before (disease) Wave 2 arrives, that you need to do some prepping in here.
The reason? Our tally of the U.S. CV19 data still insists that the mortality rate is over 17%.
Remember, there is an honest was to figure mortality. And there is a political way to figure it.
The HONEST calculation is to take the total cases where an outcome is certain (recovered plus dead) and divide that into just “dead.” As of this morning that number is running about (going from memory – worked it out about 2AM) 17.8%.
The DISHONEST way is to take the total of all U.S. cases (call it 2-millionish) and divide that into the death toll. In which case, you’ll get a more “White House/PR friendly” 5.8% mortality.
I say this method is DISHONEST because when you use all tested positives, you don’t include all the people who will be dying over the next couple of weeks from CV19 induced and failed body systems.
Ready for Lockdown II – the Sequel?
A couple of things you should be thinking about in here: One of which is the report “The U.S. ‘can’t shut down the economy again,’ Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says.”
Still, regardless of what he says, it COULD happen and we’re betting the US has over nearly 200,000 dead by August 1 and nearly 300,000 dead by Labor Day.
So really, seems to us that a prudent person would be thinking through “Debt slavery or dead…debt slavery or dead…”
The other biggie to keep an eye on is how CV19 is likely to wipe out a large portion of South America’s population. Although we’re not too confident of China’s internal CV19 reporting, when they headline what’s going on south of our border (remember? we used to have one…) the Chinese view is much less sketchy: “COVID-19 caseload tops 800,000, deaths surpass 40,000 in Brazil .”
In terms of travel? Our favorite destinations right now are Schage and KwikSet, and Master. We’ve “locked in” to these kind of destinations while the world’s psychotic break unravels along…
Daily Dose of Data
Just out (last night) is the Fed’s “H.6 Money Stocks” report on the coming hyperinflation:
|Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates||M1||M2|
|3 Months from Feb. 2020 TO May 2020||105.1%||65.3%|
This is Table 1. In table 2 – more recent and for the 90-days ending June 1st:
|Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates||M1||M2|
|Thirteen weeks ending June 1, 2020 from thirteen weeks ending:|
|Mar. 2, 2020 (13 weeks previous)||74.2%||45.0%|
While they’re at it, how “’bout some for us???”
Don’t whine to us: We told you their “outlook” was of the same material as common founding reeking around fire hydrants. Left by poor pet owners, if you follow.
Front Edge of the Hatchet Seen
This may shock you, but when the US prints up more money than we’re worth it depresses the purchasing power of the US dollar overseas.
Care to guess what begins to happen? You got it! Prices for goods coming in go up (since it takes more “paper to cover”) . So just to prove it, here’s the latest import and export price data from the Labor Dept. just out:
Prices for U.S. imports rose 1.0 percent in May, the largest 1-month advance since the index increased 1.0 percent in February 2019. In May, the advance was driven by higher fuel prices; nonfuel prices also increased. Despite the May increase, the price index for U.S. imports decreased 6.0 percent from May 2019 to May 2020.
Fuel Imports: Import prices for fuel increased 20.5 percent in May following declines of 31.0 percent, 26.6 percent, and 9.1 percent the previous 3 months. The May advance was the largest rise since the index was
first published monthly in September 1992. A 21.7-percent increase in petroleum prices led the overall advance in fuel prices; a 7.2-percent rise in natural gas prices also contributed to the increase. Prices for petroleum and natural gas both decreased the previous month, falling 32.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. Despite the record advance in May, import fuel prices declined 49.6 percent over the past 12 months. Prices for petroleum also fell for the year ended in May, declining 51.5 percent. In contrast, natural gas prices advanced 15.8 percent over the same period.
All Imports Excluding Fuel: Import prices excluding fuel ticked up 0.1 percent in May following a 0.5-percent drop the previous month. In May, rising prices for foods, feeds, and beverages and consumer goods more than offset declining prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials and automotive vehicles. The price index for imports excluding fuels decreased 0.7 percent over the past 12 months.
And how about exports, since we have done much MAGA‘ing thanks tdo CV19 and the never-ending Russia collusion lies?
U.S. export prices increased 0.5 percent in May, after falling 3.3 percent in April, 1.4 percent in March, and 1.2 percent in February. Higher agricultural prices in May more than offset lower prices for agricultural exports. Despite the May advance, the price index for U.S. exports declined 6.0 percent over the past 12 months.
Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports declined 0.5 percent in May following a 3.1-percent drop in April. In May, lower prices for corn, dairy products, and soybeans more than offset higher prices for meat, vegetables, and cotton. Agricultural export prices fell 3.5 percent over the past year driven by lower prices for corn, vegetables, cotton, nuts, and dairy products.
All Exports Excluding Agriculture: The price index for nonagricultural exports rose 0.6 percent in May, after declining 5.7 percent from January to April. In May, rising prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials more than offset declining prices for capital goods, consumer goods, automotive vehicles, and nonagricultural foods. Despite the May increase, agricultural export prices decreased 6.3 percent over the past year, led by lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials.”
Well, there you have it. Some news – good and bad.
Back to Server Heaven
Our Servers are back to humming. Separate report here (tad geekly), but if you have any issues after Sunday (to give changes time to propagate fully) drop me a note. But images are back where they should be in FurryFox and Chrome plus Opera…
A Few Other Headlines
We hope this isn’t contagious: Putin Says ‘Majority’ Back Plan to Change Russian Constitution. But, say, is there a global harmonization for One Worlding getting underway and we didn’t get clued in to the distro?
People will go to riot, but not to politic, is it? Trump campaign says it can’t be held liable if rally attendees contract coronavirus.
And let’s defend that old paradigm…you write the checks: “”The Most Absurd Moment In The History Of Capital Markets”: Hertz Plans To Sell Up To $1 Billion In New Bankrupt Stock“
Well, if the large wave 1 was to March, and this week’s massive reversal ends II up, then the declines this week were the Minor 1 down of III down and the rally today could begin Minor II of III down.
Confused? Charts tomorrow in Peoplenomics will explain all…
Write when you get rich(er)…