D153: The "Crazy Beam" Caper

Economics is often best-understood through the use of a “thought-model.”  Around here, when enough pieces of the Big Picture aren’t fitting well, we fall back to a hypothetical “super agency” that is in charge of delivering an agreed-upon future to those of us who are blissfully ignorant of the game’s highest levels.

With this in mind, we launch into a discussion of “The Crazy Beam.” And, as you’ll see as our “fictionalized” story unfolds, there is a case for 18 (or more)  mass shooting events in the US in 2018.

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D153: The "Crazy Beam" Caper — 17 Comments

  1. I have been searching for a “draw a line in the sand indicator” for a trend reversal to the downside. Looks like the 50 day simple moving average may be that indicator. As always beware of false triggers. Once price crosses below the 50, it will tend to bounce back to test the 50 so you have some time to think. Use a 10 year chart (available at Google Finance) to determine if it is a false signal or a true trend reversal signal when it bounces back to test the 50. Then either sell your long term trend holdings, or stay on board for further gains if it looked like a false signal.

  2. I told George this was going to happen – now it is on the immediate horizon…

    http://www.artberman.com/u-s-supply-oil-ending/

    Just a heads-up for readers here. Don’t be shocked – oil exploration budgets have been slashed by 70% for the last 4 years. The land rig count is 50% of what it was then and the Gulf of Mexico rig count has never been lower in history.

    If you aren’t finding new oilfields while you drain and sell what you have, then you will be short and the price goes up. Because….wait for it…tada! DEPLETION NEVER SLEEPS!

    If you are in Texas and want to store (now) cheap gas, go to Buccees on I-10 west towards Columbus. They sell pure gasoline, without ethanol. You just need to put it in a barrel since it is ethanol-free – no worries about it watering out in a few months.

      • So the ethanol is what makes the gas go bad so quickly? What’s the outside storage length for non-ethanol gas with STA-BIL?

        I’m still in awe of the length of time the diesel at the ranch has kept – and with no known preservatives in it.

    • , I mostly agree with you old man yeah they have control over all that but the part that’s hidden is they also have control over all the patented resources for energy and plus they’re also have every all well that’s ever been drilled on record and they keep those in the reserves because they do not want those exposed while they go ahead and sign deals with other countries that are producing oil so that it can be used to prop are dollar system up

      • @ Bryce –

        Sorry my friend, but Occam’s Razor applies here. They do not hold anything “in reserve” except the SPR, and that was done after the first Arab Oil Embargo.

        They drill it, produce it and sell it. Sitting on it does not work, unless they wish to lose money – and they don’t, as they are as greedy as the next businessman. They may not bring it up because they cannot get the funds to do so or they do not have enough crews to complete the well quickly. But there isn’t anything resembling a “reserve” well anywhere in the USA.

        That’s why we are still importing more than we export. The export is simply because the pricing is better overseas – that’s the only reason we export at all.

      • @ Bill –

        Ethanol attracts water – it is the active ingredient in HEET, and why HEET removes water from a gas tank. Ethanol will burn at reduced heat when a water molecule is attached.

        Ethanol also eats away at rubber – another reason that mowers and weedeaters and such take more care and maintenance is simply due to ethanol in fuel. Ethanol burns faster than gasoline and actually DECREASES your MPG due to requiring more volume of fuel for the same mileage than gasoline. Thank the corn lobby and the environmental lobby for giving us mixed fuel…

        I had a John Deere tractor that sat in a barn for 12 years. We cleaned the carburetor, poured the gas out of the tank. There wasn’t anything in the tank except a ring of varnish, so we just hooked the tank back up with the old gas.

        The tractor fired right up once the carb was cleaned. Ran just fine on 12-year-old gasoline WITHOUT ethanol. Gas was shipped out during WWII in drums, and when the drums came back years later, the gas was still fine.

        I think Stabil in gasoline might help storage, but it stores just fine in a sealed drum as-is. I would guess Stabil is required in storing ethanol blended gas – or else it waters out really badly.

      • Thanks OM2. I’ve wondered about getting another tank out at the ranch for gas but always thought the storage limitation due to spoilage wouldn’t be worth it. Now I have to check to see if any of the suppliers around here can send out ethanol free gas then start looking for tanks. Both tanks I have now are still full of red diesel for the tractor after about 14 years or so but I fill the tractor up perhaps only twice a year with a little Diesel Kleen tossed in. Don’t have the tax tags to run it in my truck.

      • I found a gas stabilizer that works really good. Much better than stabil. I have no financial interest in them I just like their stuff. It’s called Pri-G and Pri-D for diesel. It works better than anything else I’ve seen. Supposedly it will even make bad gas good again, can’t verify that but it’s worked wonders for my small engines and my diesel truck and tractor. Look around for reviews they tend to be good.

    • Thinking of the stock market, what does this mean for the US & Canadian oil stocks? Have any of them kept up after the crash in oil prices? DNR just had a nice run up (% wise) & appears to be backing off now.

  3. Scripts are surely pouring into Hollywood. An actor speaks in support of his son who was allegedly sexually assaulted by another actor. In turn the actor father is alleged by a former colleague to have conducted non-consensual sex acts against said colleague. Tit for tat; the head spins.

    One imagines if nothing else that this stuff will grease “rainforest” picture palms outstretched with the imminent release of another Woody Allen directed romp. If not fully spent, perhaps a biopic of his film’s leading lady path from 15 year old concubine to present-day spouse of an English billionaire’s nephew would be less jarring. Facts defy fiction.

    Franks, Vandals, Visigoths, they’re all clamouring at the gates. Names and locations may change, but the stories remain the same. Roll on 2018, roll on the next “Scarface” release.

    By the way, it seems incomprehensible that the old man published Hermann Goering articles in his American newspapers back in the day.

  4. George, this is off topic, but I wanted it out there in support of the underlying current in the comment section in the desire and search for ‘true love’ in the example set by you and Elaine.

    I found this in my Grandparents things, a slip of paper at this exact spot put there decades ago by my Grandmother. My Grandparents were married over 63 years, they went through WW2, their older siblings and relatives died in WW1 and WW2. They faced the death of 3 children in infancy, eeked out a living, with both working the fields, and many many other trials and hardships that most people have never faced, and yet their marriage survived intact until the end of their lives.

    The book is called: “The Poetical Works of Thomas Moore”, written in 1848.

    The poem is: Believe Me, If All Those Endearing Young Charms.

    BELIEVE me, if all those endearing young charms,
    Which I gaze on so fondly to-day,
    Were to change by to-morrow, and fleet in my arms,
    Like fairy-gifts, fading away!
    Thou wouldst still be ador’d as this moment thou art,
    Let thy loveliness fade as it will;
    And, around the dear ruin, each wish of my heart
    Would entwine itself verdantly still!
    It is not while beauty and youth are thine own,
    And thy cheeks unprofan’d by a tear,
    That the fervour and faith of a soul can be known,
    To which time will but make thee more dear!
    Oh! the heart, that has truly lov’d, never forgets,
    But as truly loves on to the close;
    As the sun-flower turns on her god, when he sets,
    The same look which she turn’d when he rose!

  5. Phew a mind bender.. I believe they’ve been training do sometime now. I read a story about some gun manufacturer that had military come in and seize.
    Similar to the civil war it’s hard to fight against your neighbors and friends so send you away from relative and those there to your area where there’s no emotional ties.
    The thought of some puppet master getting someone to do the dirty deeds. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511308/Yakuza-forcing-homeless-people-work-Fukushima-nuclear-plant-clear-up.html

    Well years ago I did day labor I would do anything to provide for my families needs.. I’ve worked some pretty disgusting jobs. So the thought comes to this. (I was going to write about day labor job of moving hot dirt from a spill area)
    It could be something like that someone despirate.

  6. Down the toilet bowl? I’ve been saying for over a year that the once great USA is circling the drain so it seems we agree on this dire situation.

    A guest on Coast last night was describing a military exercise that will train the troops on how to handle the public chaos when USA is no longer number one and ripe for invasion. How will ‘Mericans handle this blow and significant reduction in life style? IMO not well.

    • The NRA was reporting back in the 90s about questionnaires the military was giving to its members regarding whether or not they’d fire on fellow Americans in a given circumstance. I don’t think the results were particularly encouraging and ever since we’ve been reading about the presence of foreign troops on our soil. Especially Russians in and around Denver. How do you demonize them to the public and turn around and train them behind the scenes?

      Do you trust our government???