Is the Master of Disaster in the House? First thing out of the hopper today is the employment data from the Department of Labor. Here’s what their news release lays out. (Short version? Sucks)
Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. Note that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.
Technical note? Sure, let’s do that: And the useful part of this is:
It is important to keep in mind | that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month.”
Now we get into the more problematic portions of this. Not the least of which is the “numbers don’t line up.”
Let’s follow the logic-chain, shall we?
Last month, the total number of people working was what?
158,759,000 says over here (or it did until this morning’s updated data). And the number of people actually working in today’s report is? 155,772,000.
Here’s some “big MBA math” for you: “158.559-million minus 155.772-million is 2.987-million fewer people working. Which doesn’t make sense unless your name isn’t Alice and you never visit “wonderland.”
We know that last week, we were hearing about 3-million new unemployment filers and then Thursday, 6.6-million new filers were mentioned. I know it’s early, and all, but to me looks like 10-million new filers in the past couple of weeks. Yet only 3-million fewer working?
The Magic of Estimation!
For the hell of it, let’s see how many jobs were estimated into existence this weekend using the CES Birth/Death Model, shall we?
(Envelope, please?) Only 26,000 jobs.
With the report this morning: Employed down 3-million unemployment filing up 9-million, I’m left scratching my head. Except, like the technical note said, between the lines, “Wait ’til next month.”
OK, the jobs report is a disaster, the petty political bullshit playing the blame game is fillng up the empty heads, we have 1.1 million cases globally and 55,000 dead on tap for this afternoon’s dining and dancing pleasure. But, besides that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
In a nutshell, we’re in a three-way horse race for your beliefs. The contender ideas are:
- Economic Collapse is playing out: The idea that the debt has compounded to the point where globalism is spazzing out. Corona hides the bankster folly collapse.
- Global Supply Chain Failure is occurring. Which means that when normal “resupply” of things like toilet paper and essentional parts from Asia fail, JIT is telling us going to the “Colorado River Paradigm” from the older “Mississippi River Paradigm” is failing. Which came first, the banksters or the crash?
- Some Grand Conspiracy is in play. Problem is we don’t know which “theory” is real. Is the U.S. in a bio-war with China? Is this so everyone shelters when a comet goes by? Is this the last-gasp run at a NWO? Is it a plan to devalue the dollar by 50%, or more? Is Q just a psy-op? Pass the dutchy and thrown a dart.
The problem with conspiracies is they are only proveable in the historical rearview. If there were gangs of pedo’s sacrificing children, for example, they would have been taken down long ago. So with Esptein out of the picture, do you believe there is a bigger and worse? Not saying there isn’t, but the odds…this is all aboout odds and judgement. And from there, it’s about answering the tough question “What is my personal course of action?”
And there are many more possibilities, but from the Occam’s Razor standpoint, the simplest is likely “Accidental release in China resulted in a large-enough drop in production and outputs as to shake-up global economic stability and, as the wild oscillations from this ripple, we have lit the fuse of a long-delayed economic collapse which will be shaping life going forward indefinitely.”
Through the “Eyes of Zh?ngguó“
Zh?ngguó means “Middle State (or Kingdom).” That is, China – with an incredibly rich history of more than ten-times the short-lived American experience, views itself as being a kind of “middle kingdom” sandwiched historically between ancestral greatness (the Dynasty’s such as Ming, etc.) and the “Chinese Century” to come. And at the extremes, the militant Chinese are racists who would just as soon all white and inconvenient “others” on the planet were toast.
Since you may not have the January 9, 1930 issue of China Heritage Quarterly at hand, let me point you over here to become more learned. As you will read, it’s a kind of yin and yang flipping between inferiority on the one hand to a Korean-like stew on the other (more on this in a second).
Great wars, dissent, and competition spring from great historical wrongs. While the U.S. paid the price for the wrongness of slavery in the U.S. Civil War to set things closer to right (still have pockets of resistance), China’s version of racial discord stemmed from the arrival of imperialistic whites. And things like the Boxer Rebellion are still recent historical events when you’re history goes back 3-thosuand years. For now,. let’s only go back to 1901 and the Boxer Rebellion:
“The Eight-Nation Alliance (imperialist white G), after being initially turned back, brought 20,000 armed troops to China, defeated the Imperial Army, and arrived at Peking on August 14, relieving the siege of the Legations. Uncontrolled plunder of the capital and the surrounding countryside ensued, along with summary execution of those suspected of being Boxers. The Boxer Protocol of 7 September 1901 provided for the execution of government officials who had supported the Boxers, provisions for foreign troops to be stationed in Beijing, and 450 million taels of silver—approximately $10 billion at 2018 silver prices and more than the government’s annual tax revenue—to be paid as indemnity over the course of the next 39 years to the eight nations involved.”
If you don’t think this was packaged by Mao, et al, as “We’re going to get back at those white devils” you’d be wrong. We have never set this one right and China’s memory is long.
The psycho-topology of Asia is complex, like this. A well-placed source who sharpens the tip of “America’s spear” explained to me. Memories are long, and race & face matters in Asia much more so than in the gentlified West. Let me paraphase, though I will botch this, I’m sure…
“Most people don’t realize that even though North and South Korea have a contentious border, down at some level, the people of the Korean peninsula hold themselves to “all be one” down at some level. This goes back to the three-kingdoms period of Korea, as the Tang Dynasty moved to take the area. Koreans are all Daehan.”
“Beginning in the 7th century, the name “Samhan” became synonymous with the Three Kingdoms of Korea. The “Han” in the names of the Korean Empire, Daehan Jeguk, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Daehan Minguk or Hanguk, are named in reference to the Three Kingdoms of Korea, not the ancient confederacies in the southern Korean Peninsula.“
Which we mention, why?
Even the notion of accidental release, though well-supported by the available data, is not conclusive.
For example, we know there are factions within the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) are not happy with president Xi, cutting deals with Trump, and seeing him as not “pure enough” and not working fast-enough to their Chinese Century agenda to be the sole dominant power in the world. Middle Kingdom power lust, anyone? OK, maybe it was deliberate. And maybe there’s a rift between the PLA on the one hand, and the Xi-dominated Central Committee, on the other.
Not sure it gets us closer to the “blocking and tackling” of day-to-day toilet paper search, but it’s at least useful to understand the history and that all the “shallow” conspiracy theories are likely bullshit. These are real big countries and they act in their own best historical interests, and small (assorted) groups of politico’s and ultra-rich, are subservient to the larger historical contexts. These are what matters.
China’s still pissed and an honest umpire would ask “Can you blame ’em?”
Still Hell Month?
Inquiring minds want to know: “Are we really replaying 1929?” Beats me…see for yourself. The green circle is where things were prior to the jobs report:
A post-mortem tomorrow for subscribers. It will be amusing to see how many people carry long positions over the weekend, though.
Spousal unit Elaine raised an interesting question, though: “OK, so we make all this money on collapse and then we can’t spend it on anything useful?”
Yeah…lot of that kind of thing going around….
Things Aren’t All Bad, Though
Two interesting developments here at the ranch in the past 24-hours:
The first is that issue I was having with the lumber has been resolved with a fresh delivery for replacement at no charge. My faith in the lumberyard in Palestine, Texas, that starts with an “M” is restored. With rain coming, my focus here will be finishing the shop-updates.
This will involve putting voice-control on the swamp cooler, using some luan to better duct the cool air into the shop. And that will also include running power so I don’t have to step over an extension cord, but hey, that worked for a year, just fine.
The second thing here is a very interesting set of “personal woo-woo” experiments and I will write that up for Peoplenomics tomorrow. The reason is that I’ve been softly tracking some of my “red light” experiments and there’s a possible correlation between how your eyes react and how your outside world appears.
While earlier this week was “frentetic” (frantic, frenzied) the reading from that sapce this morning is “soft waves.” Anyway, more on that over on the subscrtiber site.
OK, time to saddle up. Lots of charts on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow, as always.
Write when you get rich, and ya’ll come back, y’hear?