Before we launch into the CPI just out, let’s chill for a second to review Big Picture stuff. It matters.
My consigliere made the fine point Monday that “The market won’t care that trade has been kicked down the road for only 90-days…the market wants to go up…”
He’s got a point: After screaming up well over 1,000 points Monday, the early futures were only looking at a pullback of 200-points. That’s better’n a 5:1 ratio on the upside. Bitcoin is holding $103.5-thousand today. But the real (to us) tangibles weren’t to cheery. Gold was up $26 when I checked early and oil was trying for a comeback after a slam Monday, too.
The simple answer is “Markets move by Animal Spirits.” Credit to Elliott Middleton for that. Who?
“Elliott Middleton, a professor at Metropolitan State University, developed a psychophysical theory of “animal spirits” in markets, linking consumer confidence to the unemployment rate relative to its historical moving average, or adaptation level. In his 1996 work, he argued that in the U.S., where job security is often tenuous, the unemployment rate serves as a key indicator of personal economic risk, driving market sentiment. When the unemployment rate falls below this adaptation level, confidence rises, boosting “animal spirits” and economic optimism; conversely, rates above this level trigger pessimism, potentially leading to recessions. Middleton’s model, which gained attention in a 1998 Wall Street Journal feature, contrasts with traditional economic indicators like stock prices, emphasizing psychological factors over purely rational market behavior.”
Of course, there are as many theories as there are winners, on Wall St. There are many flavors of astrological systems, too (None as good as Arch Crawford back in the day). But my point is that if you’re a “True Believer” in any system, you’ll be comfortable following your beliefs, whether it takes you to the horse track, the dogs, Vegas, or the online swindlers.
America’s Got Troubles
Despite His Excellency in Chief getting a spiffy “royal jet” real people like us sold the old Beechcraft because it wasn’t affordable on “disposable income” anymore.
My Consigliere has been sending out a ton of emails to our “Colleagues” group of late bemoaning how America is losing a once commanding lead in ship building, steel production, energy projects, and even educational test scores. Even the SME is having time faulting a good bit of it.
So with this in mind, our first stop before “purported inflation” will be the National Federation of Independent Business outlook, which is “half-past-optimism” in nature:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 13, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased four points from March to 92 but remained far above the historical average of 68. Seasonally adjusted, 34% of business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March. The last time job openings were below this level was in January 2021.
“Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments.”
Sure, America is still in business, but not like the once upon a time.
Which is why this is an interesting piece: Why did the US and China slash tariffs – and what’s next?
NOW to CPI
Opening the CPI report is a lot like getting bad news about a family member or loved one who you’ve had on your mind for a while. When someone says “Sit down, there’s something I’ve got to tell you…”
Well, this would be it:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index. The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.
(Why don’t I believe it?)
The all-items ex food and energy is still up YoY 2.8 percent, but the market didn’t care. Trying to get clearance for take-off for higher later on.
Could it have been worse? Um…you tell me.
The news flow around the money pits will be slow tomorrow. So slow, in fact, if it wasn’t for Peoplenomics, it would be a fine day to take off and go fishing or sneak in a long lunch and a round of golf…
Unless you’re the president: Trump Heads to Persian Gulf for Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE visit. We have to wonder (with all this billionaire romancing) if he’ll get something akin to a jet from the Saudis as Saudi Crown Prince welcomes Trump in Riyadh.
Damn shame Qatar didn’t just sent America a month or two of interest on the National Debt. But, with a debt of about $36,214,181,120,572.57.
Lemme see: A 30-year home mortgage is running about 5.9%. So that would be the (real) national debt interest where? I dunno…about $2,136,636,686,113 a year? So it would take 10 Qatar-sized gifts a day to hold back the compound interest monster. We just don’t see that in the cards. But we’ll see what the “deals” are. Or, maybe cut someone a break if they can’t pay the full 3,874 jets in a lump sum. (Dealer rates may vary, depends on options and dealer prep, based on an MSRP of $550 million, see details at showroom.)
Smash and Streaming
Talking Heads: Zelensky wants Trump at peace talks, Russia silent on whether Putin will go. We cynically think there have been too many people “talking to wrong parties, already” in this bloodbath.
Not trying to sound “pissy” here, but isn’t this racist? Episcopal church says it won’t help resettle white South Africans granted refugee status. It it was any other color, would it be reported this way? I mean seriously, WTF?
But, as long as we’re on BS and Borders, how’s about: ICE arrests 422 illegal migrants in Texas sweep, including some wanted for murder and sexual assault? Where are the churchmen on this? Help a brother out?
New one from Mike Benz – who’s become something of a Paul Revere persona to our way of reading it: Mike Benz on X: “Epic stuff here. @DataRepublican just extracted 19,738 Open Society Foundation grants from 2016-present and put them in a public database everyone can download. Non-political foundation my ass, right?
For people who tried to shame us for not getting shots: Saudi Study Links Covid ‘Vaccines’ to Surge in Sudden Cardiac Arrests Among Young People.
And one more health item to think long and hard on: on X: “This is so true. This is why therapy is a scam.
Around the Ranch: Postal Coverup, Summerizing
In the Monday column, I posted exactly the tracking for a $53 package of DVD’s with achieved ebooks on ’em that left Blaine (up in Washington state) in late April. In and out of the USPS Coppell, Texas distribution center several times. In yesterday’s column I was pissing and moaning about it.
Well today’s adventure, kiddies, looks like this:
Moving Through Network
In Transit to Next Facility
May 12, 2025
Processing at USPS Facility
TYLER, TX 75703
May 6, 2025, 12:59 pm
Processing at USPS Facility
TYLER, TX 75703
May 6, 2025, 2:47 am
Arrived at USPS Regional Facility
COPPELL TX DISTRIBUTION CENTER
May 4, 2025, 4:36 am
Departed USPS Regional Facility
DALLAS TX LOGISTICS CENTER
May 4, 2025, 4:10 am
See it? They edited out this part now:
Summerizing (sic)
Getting one toward Summer down in this next-o-the-woods.
Looking for a high today of of 92 with 93 tomorrow. Memorial Day looks to be 86-88 and partly sunny. So if you don’t have the BBQ plans made, what are you slurping coffee for? Get a move on! Brisket, brauts, breasts, and top sirloin or a filet? Corn’s coming down in price and we’ve almost made it to the Good Times again…
Oh – shouldn’t have mentioned the big electric chainsaw inbound: Just mentioning it was enough to kill the sole surviving 6-inch pruning chain saw… So much for lightning deals, huh?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
I have the same issue with the postal service. I ordered a package from Iowa with the tracking number arrival May 12. The package went from Iowa to Omaha, then back to Iowa, and checking today, the package is now back in Omaha. I have no idea now when or if I’ll get my package.
I thinbk they are on a make work deal – gotta all get raises and they don’t do it with amazon because they would put up with this bullshit
As per usual – good report..
BIGGEST ITEM in Finance today ? Dont know about youse knuckleheads, but this genius is looking at bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbBITCOIN more than doubling by Oct-Nov time frame, of THIS year.
Have Ure lying eyes deceived youse ?
Have they failed to recognize..UNCONFISCATABLE in Vegas, baby – is only 3 weeks away! “tree’
Sativanac the Magnificent – holding envelope to to his forehead, says $250k BTC by November 25.
Georgie (late night host) – opens envelope and reads aloud – “2 Month Chart shows current 2 month candle as Green Star(buy) Candle”
Green star candle on MRI (proprietary program) 2 month chart indicates a big run up to $250k..then rolls over into real bear market back down to $110k range over 6 months or so.
BTC no likey 50% down moves and can only remember one time it achieved that, and not for very long…so suspect.
All right dont be a stranger – there is no danger..its time for VEGAS baby! https://unconfiscatable.com/
Caution celebrity poker tournament – 1) how can it be “Celebrity” without “The Suit” in attendance ?
2) need BTC to get in
3) very few seats left- most of them reserved.
Dont know about Carnivory Dinner this year – as BCP dont do Beefs..anymore
Not 1 tRUMP, but 2 tRUMPS will be speaking..did I mention the conference is Free ?
Yo Loob – dont forget what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas..heard about those texts..you savage!
Anywho’s the lead up to UnConfiscatable will be a Pumping, at least it usually pumps week prior to. Hope to see youse all there.
* tRUMP going after bullshit efficiency standards for home appliances. Finally cutting thru absolute BULLSHIT regulations – AFTER I broke the friggin bank to get a speed queen..thanks to that RETARD biden.
** AGAIN – FU joe biden x3 and all your ilk, D&Rs!
My repair guy says to buy a Maytag Commercial washer and dryer. Built strong. No exotic electronics, and simple and efficient to repair.
Very Basic.
So far, so good
9 people sitting at a table playing Texas Hold ’em.., is not poker.
9 people playing stud poker is nothing more than pure luck. There is no way to figure the odds with that many hands being dealt from one deck. I would never sit at that table.
“They” have turned poker into a sorry-ass media event – and I want no part of that circus.
(“Which is why this is an interesting piece: Why did the US and China slash tariffs – and what’s next?”)
hmmm…….seriously…..did they have any other choice??
Because the Big Stupid Face finance people don’t want a proxy war with China and India leading into a full-on war. India’s population is approximately 1.46 billion and China’s population is about 1.42 billion. I presume A.I is somewhat advanced but not advanced enough to keep that one under wraps.
what happens when 2.88 billion get into a fist fight? The entire world will destabilize and the big stupid face finance people…. lose control.
the one thing that the big stupid face financers fear….. is losing control.
as if….. silly, i know.
Also in Crazy Time: Starting the Merry month of May, Panther Creel Electric Generating Facility obtained Pennsylvania state approval to burn tires along with waste coal to create power for Bitcoin.
https://www.pahomepage.com/news/carbon-county-power-plant-gets-approval-to-burn-tires/
By God now that’s progress. Let’s ban cars next to puff up btc prices…Jesus lord…
You Rang ?
Mispelled name (not the first around here): the correct name is Panther Creek
Cold Turkey :
“… there are as many theories as there are winners, on Wall St. There are many flavors of astrological systems, too (None as good as Arch Crawford back in the day). But my point is that if you’re a “True Believer” in any system, you’ll be comfortable following your beliefs, whether it takes you to the horse track, the dogs, Vegas, or the online swindlers …”
Wordslinger. Careful Matey. Truth-telling of this nature is _way_ out there. I think of Arch every time the moon is in phase. Sprinkle in Mrs. E was a surgical RN and had lots of friends who worked ER. The stories of ER in moon glow were / are real.
I have a few way fun recollections of Pit Boss interactions when Vegas was the only game in town (before learning how to count cards). This one guy was great fun and had to park at our table due to action involved. Him: “we love people with systems. They lose their money … systematically.
A fellow Elliot waver and Gann angler and Fibonacci counter associate and I ran legit testing of every system and, you could print / lose money systematically. Moving averages, bull-bear spreads, trend lines Parallel angles or horizontal resistance / support lines. Or, all of it.
For now the human psyche rules. Later the Bot.
I’m cold turkey. This is very amusing.
It’s a cleanse. A flush.
Always, E
You guys are all just paranoid. The USPS doesn’t just drive packages around in circle wasting fuel. Ure package is really in the queue at a dark site waiting for trackers and surveillance to be installed. Back log for lower priority dissedents. Apparently, not all the spooks are Alexa enabled.
Have you checked out an Echo electric chainsaw? No regrets. Cuts as good as a similar size Stihl, and always starts without a trip to the shop. Extra batteries are too pricey.
“.., really in the queue at a dark site waiting for trackers and surveillance to be installed. ”
Talk about paranoid.
“US and China slash tariffs”
The people who pulled purchases forward were suckers…. but tariff threats did create a bump in new credit because of the ‘beat the tariffs’ pull forwards.
China is in on it, the global system.
well, count your blessings George. my mail man is a fuckin idiot. every other day i get my neighbors mail and they get mine. i was waiting for that one thing to take me surfing in Guam.
it was delivered to my neighbor 3 doors down, they were on vacation for 2 weeks and he hand delivered it last Friday. Oh there it is. thanks.
Still, everything happens for a reason. Those of us who do business with The Good Lord, know His economy is alive and well. ^ AND that Spiritual fiat is eternally worth more than bitcoin at 5 Million Dollars.
truly,
good to see you all. I am working on a new creation. It is already in motion. no further comment for sum time.
We just got a big ‘postcard’, no envelope, a Christmas greeting from a friend in Hollywood.
Like just got it on May 10.
We sailed 3500nm to get us here in 30 days. USPS took FOUR MONTHS to achieve the same thing when there are flights every day into the country here.
And it cost $1.85!
No one is running that ship. It’s just a drain hole like most of the rest of guvmint.
We were happy to see our friends and the smiling faces of their large happy family.
Bonus.
Stiks
Trump just signed a deal with the Saudi’s on a $600 billion dollar A.I. and defense deal.
– $600 billion !? Love to see the details on that ! Wow ! Are we just selling them shit., or do we actually get something out of this ?
A study in Holland last year found that just having good levels of vitamin D, omega-3 [ fatty acids found in oily fish ] and B complex vitamins cut dementia risk by 75%. Add EGCG [green tea extract ] and it goes to 80 %. Low processed foods and an overall healthy diet will also help raise that percentage and cut the risks. Mediterranean Diet was mentioned twice.
Four different studies – four different countries – all using the same four supplements arrived at the same numbers. You can cut the risk of dementia by up to 80%.
I read, and took notes, on all four of the studies – the end conclusion was the same on all four – but they also took care as to not reveal the amount / dosage of each supplement. Just how much was used ? Two of the articles did state – “just having a good healthy level”.., which helps, but does not define an optimum dosage.
But – it is a good foundation for a start-up program – most of which you should already be taking. I am going to keep looking and see if I can find actual numbers for the dosage used of these supplements.
Folks,
What a first class back-handed compliment from Qatar! It’s Royal Family level. Gifting a $400 million jet for use as Air Force One by President Trump? I guess word has spread around the globe that the two planned Air Force One replacement jets with billion dollar price tags are not yet delivered and remain with Boeing. Okay, enough of that. Let’s segue back to the Publisher’s mention above of a national debt matter.
As an aside, those with package delivery issues may be pleased to hear that Qatar Airways publicly announced that it was retiring the last of the venerable B747-8 units from its air cargo fleet a year ago. UPS will be operating them going forward.