Before we launch into the CPI just out, let’s chill for a second to review Big Picture stuff. It matters.
My consigliere made the fine point Monday that “The market won’t care that trade has been kicked down the road for only 90-days…the market wants to go up…”
He’s got a point: After screaming up well over 1,000 points Monday, the early futures were only looking at a pullback of 200-points. That’s better’n a 5:1 ratio on the upside. Bitcoin is holding $103.5-thousand today. But the real (to us) tangibles weren’t to cheery. Gold was up $26 when I checked early and oil was trying for a comeback after a slam Monday, too.
The simple answer is “Markets move by Animal Spirits.” Credit to Elliott Middleton for that. Who?
“Elliott Middleton, a professor at Metropolitan State University, developed a psychophysical theory of “animal spirits” in markets, linking consumer confidence to the unemployment rate relative to its historical moving average, or adaptation level. In his 1996 work, he argued that in the U.S., where job security is often tenuous, the unemployment rate serves as a key indicator of personal economic risk, driving market sentiment. When the unemployment rate falls below this adaptation level, confidence rises, boosting “animal spirits” and economic optimism; conversely, rates above this level trigger pessimism, potentially leading to recessions. Middleton’s model, which gained attention in a 1998 Wall Street Journal feature, contrasts with traditional economic indicators like stock prices, emphasizing psychological factors over purely rational market behavior.”
Of course, there are as many theories as there are winners, on Wall St. There are many flavors of astrological systems, too (None as good as Arch Crawford back in the day). But my point is that if you’re a “True Believer” in any system, you’ll be comfortable following your beliefs, whether it takes you to the horse track, the dogs, Vegas, or the online swindlers.
America’s Got Troubles
Despite His Excellency in Chief getting a spiffy “royal jet” real people like us sold the old Beechcraft because it wasn’t affordable on “disposable income” anymore.
My Consigliere has been sending out a ton of emails to our “Colleagues” group of late bemoaning how America is losing a once commanding lead in ship building, steel production, energy projects, and even educational test scores. Even the SME is having time faulting a good bit of it.
So with this in mind, our first stop before “purported inflation” will be the National Federation of Independent Business outlook, which is “half-past-optimism” in nature:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 13, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased four points from March to 92 but remained far above the historical average of 68. Seasonally adjusted, 34% of business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March. The last time job openings were below this level was in January 2021.
“Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments.”
Sure, America is still in business, but not like the once upon a time.
Which is why this is an interesting piece: Why did the US and China slash tariffs – and what’s next?
NOW to CPI
Opening the CPI report is a lot like getting bad news about a family member or loved one who you’ve had on your mind for a while. When someone says “Sit down, there’s something I’ve got to tell you…”
Well, this would be it:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index. The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.
(Why don’t I believe it?)
The all-items ex food and energy is still up YoY 2.8 percent, but the market didn’t care. Trying to get clearance for take-off for higher later on.
Could it have been worse? Um…you tell me.
The news flow around the money pits will be slow tomorrow. So slow, in fact, if it wasn’t for Peoplenomics, it would be a fine day to take off and go fishing or sneak in a long lunch and a round of golf…
Unless you’re the president: Trump Heads to Persian Gulf for Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE visit. We have to wonder (with all this billionaire romancing) if he’ll get something akin to a jet from the Saudis as Saudi Crown Prince welcomes Trump in Riyadh.
Damn shame Qatar didn’t just sent America a month or two of interest on the National Debt. But, with a debt of about $36,214,181,120,572.57.
Lemme see: A 30-year home mortgage is running about 5.9%. So that would be the (real) national debt interest where? I dunno…about $2,136,636,686,113 a year? So it would take 10 Qatar-sized gifts a day to hold back the compound interest monster. We just don’t see that in the cards. But we’ll see what the “deals” are. Or, maybe cut someone a break if they can’t pay the full 3,874 jets in a lump sum. (Dealer rates may vary, depends on options and dealer prep, based on an MSRP of $550 million, see details at showroom.)
Smash and Streaming
Talking Heads: Zelensky wants Trump at peace talks, Russia silent on whether Putin will go. We cynically think there have been too many people “talking to wrong parties, already” in this bloodbath.
Not trying to sound “pissy” here, but isn’t this racist? Episcopal church says it won’t help resettle white South Africans granted refugee status. It it was any other color, would it be reported this way? I mean seriously, WTF?
But, as long as we’re on BS and Borders, how’s about: ICE arrests 422 illegal migrants in Texas sweep, including some wanted for murder and sexual assault? Where are the churchmen on this? Help a brother out?
New one from Mike Benz – who’s become something of a Paul Revere persona to our way of reading it: Mike Benz on X: “Epic stuff here. @DataRepublican just extracted 19,738 Open Society Foundation grants from 2016-present and put them in a public database everyone can download. Non-political foundation my ass, right?
For people who tried to shame us for not getting shots: Saudi Study Links Covid ‘Vaccines’ to Surge in Sudden Cardiac Arrests Among Young People.
And one more health item to think long and hard on: on X: “This is so true. This is why therapy is a scam.
Around the Ranch: Postal Coverup, Summerizing
In the Monday column, I posted exactly the tracking for a $53 package of DVD’s with achieved ebooks on ’em that left Blaine (up in Washington state) in late April. In and out of the USPS Coppell, Texas distribution center several times. In yesterday’s column I was pissing and moaning about it.
Well today’s adventure, kiddies, looks like this:
Moving Through Network
In Transit to Next Facility
May 12, 2025
Processing at USPS Facility
TYLER, TX 75703
May 6, 2025, 12:59 pm
Processing at USPS Facility
TYLER, TX 75703
May 6, 2025, 2:47 am
Arrived at USPS Regional Facility
COPPELL TX DISTRIBUTION CENTER
May 4, 2025, 4:36 am
Departed USPS Regional Facility
DALLAS TX LOGISTICS CENTER
May 4, 2025, 4:10 am
See it? They edited out this part now:
Summerizing (sic)
Getting one toward Summer down in this next-o-the-woods.
Looking for a high today of of 92 with 93 tomorrow. Memorial Day looks to be 86-88 and partly sunny. So if you don’t have the BBQ plans made, what are you slurping coffee for? Get a move on! Brisket, brauts, breasts, and top sirloin or a filet? Corn’s coming down in price and we’ve almost made it to the Good Times again…
Oh – shouldn’t have mentioned the big electric chainsaw inbound: Just mentioning it was enough to kill the sole surviving 6-inch pruning chain saw… So much for lightning deals, huh?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
I have the same issue with the postal service. I ordered a package from Iowa with the tracking number arrival May 12. The package went from Iowa to Omaha, then back to Iowa, and checking today, the package is now back in Omaha. I have no idea now when or if I’ll get my package.
I thinbk they are on a make work deal – gotta all get raises and they don’t do it with amazon because they would put up with this bullshit
The favored ‘Ground Advantage’ cheap rate works only for the CONUS. Crossing oceans it’s a disaster. One package stopped in San Fran.(I think they accumulate a container full before it ships). Two weeks later it arrived in Guam. Waited a week there before being returned to San Fran (two week crossing again) where it waited another week for dispatch on the slow boat to Hawaii… two weeks more, no tracking, and PRESTO! it’s ‘Out for delivery’. Somewhere in the neighborhood of nine weeks transit time. I’ve gotten to prefer sellers on eBay that offer First Class or Priority Mail, but again, it was a Priority Mail package that circled the Georgia facility for five days before finally getting on a plane to Hawaii.
UPS and FedEx are too damn expensive, and sometimes the contract drivers here cannot find a house number out here in the jungle. I’ve had stuff marked as ‘delivered’ that I never saw and had a helluva time getting a refund on. It’s a crap shoot. Nice to have stuff delivered, but hell when it fails.
As per usual – good report..
BIGGEST ITEM in Finance today ? Dont know about youse knuckleheads, but this genius is looking at bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbBITCOIN more than doubling by Oct-Nov time frame, of THIS year.
Have Ure lying eyes deceived youse ?
Have they failed to recognize..UNCONFISCATABLE in Vegas, baby – is only 3 weeks away! “tree’
Sativanac the Magnificent – holding envelope to to his forehead, says $250k BTC by November 25.
Georgie (late night host) – opens envelope and reads aloud – “2 Month Chart shows current 2 month candle as Green Star(buy) Candle”
Green star candle on MRI (proprietary program) 2 month chart indicates a big run up to $250k..then rolls over into real bear market back down to $110k range over 6 months or so.
BTC no likey 50% down moves and can only remember one time it achieved that, and not for very long…so suspect.
All right dont be a stranger – there is no danger..its time for VEGAS baby! https://unconfiscatable.com/
Caution celebrity poker tournament – 1) how can it be “Celebrity” without “The Suit” in attendance ?
2) need BTC to get in
3) very few seats left- most of them reserved.
Dont know about Carnivory Dinner this year – as BCP dont do Beefs..anymore
Not 1 tRUMP, but 2 tRUMPS will be speaking..did I mention the conference is Free ?
Yo Loob – dont forget what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas..heard about those texts..you savage!
Anywho’s the lead up to UnConfiscatable will be a Pumping, at least it usually pumps week prior to. Hope to see youse all there.
* tRUMP going after bullshit efficiency standards for home appliances. Finally cutting thru absolute BULLSHIT regulations – AFTER I broke the friggin bank to get a speed queen..thanks to that RETARD biden.
** AGAIN – FU joe biden x3 and all your ilk, D&Rs!
My repair guy says to buy a Maytag Commercial washer and dryer. Built strong. No exotic electronics, and simple and efficient to repair.
Very Basic.
So far, so good
Maytag Repairman Commercial (Jesse White, 1979)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zCUiYosam4k
Just bought new Maytag dryer last month.
So far so good,
Vic
Agree totally. Bought this combo 10 years ago. Not a lick of problems. Washer spin cycle scares me some times. I swear I have removed clothes that do not need the dryer.
Only appliances I have ever had that read the George’s “The 100 year toaster” before it was written.
9 people sitting at a table playing Texas Hold ’em.., is not poker.
9 people playing stud poker is nothing more than pure luck. There is no way to figure the odds with that many hands being dealt from one deck. I would never sit at that table.
“They” have turned poker into a sorry-ass media event – and I want no part of that circus.
Why so low BCn? The multi year low (floor)is now ~$64K. This would setup a ~90% correction from the ~$700,000.00 level if past algo’s and wavelets stand. However we have Mr Highs Bitcoin Impossible call out there in ether(not the crypto) ready to manifest this year, a year with a deadly winter. It’s very likely a gamma squeeze and loss of available BTC for sale floats in(pun) by August IMHO. Should setup a very interesting Nov~Dec…. Got blockchain.
https://youtu.be/-23IM_rYRag
Engage British HODL3 rules of holding BTC.
https://youtu.be/BJxqp5lmHUc
Over a year ago…?.? Strap in home gamers and please place tray tables in the upright and locked position. Grateful am I!
(“Which is why this is an interesting piece: Why did the US and China slash tariffs – and what’s next?”)
hmmm…….seriously…..did they have any other choice??
Because the Big Stupid Face finance people don’t want a proxy war with China and India leading into a full-on war. India’s population is approximately 1.46 billion and China’s population is about 1.42 billion. I presume A.I is somewhat advanced but not advanced enough to keep that one under wraps.
what happens when 2.88 billion get into a fist fight? The entire world will destabilize and the big stupid face finance people…. lose control.
the one thing that the big stupid face financers fear….. is losing control.
as if….. silly, i know.
Check Ure stats for Chynah population.
On ground reporting recently suggests alot less People in Chynah than previously believed.
Hearing currently 7-1 ratio funerals to weddings in the towns and villages – this on the street reporting w/vid backups.
There are hundreds if not thousands of abandoned building blocks and towers currently all over the cities.
Straight up think something is wong in Chynah, besides the Qi of the place being all F-ed for years now – hard to practice in that kinda environment, very difficult.
Seems covert19 and mnra clotz shotz did some DAMAGE, some serious damage to Asia pop..its noticable, but aint no one talking about it.
* when last axed regards smokables, I suggested Hedera Hash for shit coinary. Not a bad coin, but pales in comparison to bbbbBITCOIN. XRP & XLM may also bee worthy of SPECULATION.
Also in Crazy Time: Starting the Merry month of May, Panther Creel Electric Generating Facility obtained Pennsylvania state approval to burn tires along with waste coal to create power for Bitcoin.
https://www.pahomepage.com/news/carbon-county-power-plant-gets-approval-to-burn-tires/
By God now that’s progress. Let’s ban cars next to puff up btc prices…Jesus lord…
You Rang ?
Mispelled name (not the first around here): the correct name is Panther Creek
Cold Turkey :
“… there are as many theories as there are winners, on Wall St. There are many flavors of astrological systems, too (None as good as Arch Crawford back in the day). But my point is that if you’re a “True Believer” in any system, you’ll be comfortable following your beliefs, whether it takes you to the horse track, the dogs, Vegas, or the online swindlers …”
Wordslinger. Careful Matey. Truth-telling of this nature is _way_ out there. I think of Arch every time the moon is in phase. Sprinkle in Mrs. E was a surgical RN and had lots of friends who worked ER. The stories of ER in moon glow were / are real.
I have a few way fun recollections of Pit Boss interactions when Vegas was the only game in town (before learning how to count cards). This one guy was great fun and had to park at our table due to action involved. Him: “we love people with systems. They lose their money … systematically.
A fellow Elliot waver and Gann angler and Fibonacci counter associate and I ran legit testing of every system and, you could print / lose money systematically. Moving averages, bull-bear spreads, trend lines Parallel angles or horizontal resistance / support lines. Or, all of it.
For now the human psyche rules. Later the Bot.
I’m cold turkey. This is very amusing.
It’s a cleanse. A flush.
Always, E
You guys are all just paranoid. The USPS doesn’t just drive packages around in circle wasting fuel. Ure package is really in the queue at a dark site waiting for trackers and surveillance to be installed. Back log for lower priority dissedents. Apparently, not all the spooks are Alexa enabled.
Have you checked out an Echo electric chainsaw? No regrets. Cuts as good as a similar size Stihl, and always starts without a trip to the shop. Extra batteries are too pricey.
“.., really in the queue at a dark site waiting for trackers and surveillance to be installed. ”
Talk about paranoid.
That was tongue-in-cheek, d’Lynn.
Went wit DeWalt (s) 2 of em – 1st one in Belize is a work horse and everyone and their Brothers always asking to borrow. The DeWalt pole saw is top notch as well.
Chain saw good been enough I bot one for Pennsyltucky property. Bot off label 20 volt battery backups, lot cheaper and seem to hold charge just fine, nothing noticeable.
Do I miss cranking my shoulder out of socket ? Do I miss mixing Gas and 2 stroke & messing with bar oil? Okay the electric uses bar oil, just doesnt seem half as messy as ICE power is, and wont burn Ure thigh when hanging from climbing harness during climbing exercises, let alone leak dirty oil all over pants.
I dont climb to do tree work..anymore. I just hire a high lift and lean out da bucket nowadays..did I mention “jungle luv” ? the shit Never stops growing in the jungle.
jungle love – https://youtu.be/E3HRTrZ-V0A?si=cxRvq_Y2p-r7DsHV
“the shit Never stops growing in the jungle.”
So… you’ve been to my Volcano Ranch!
“US and China slash tariffs”
The people who pulled purchases forward were suckers…. but tariff threats did create a bump in new credit because of the ‘beat the tariffs’ pull forwards.
China is in on it, the global system.
well, count your blessings George. my mail man is a fuckin idiot. every other day i get my neighbors mail and they get mine. i was waiting for that one thing to take me surfing in Guam.
it was delivered to my neighbor 3 doors down, they were on vacation for 2 weeks and he hand delivered it last Friday. Oh there it is. thanks.
Still, everything happens for a reason. Those of us who do business with The Good Lord, know His economy is alive and well. ^ AND that Spiritual fiat is eternally worth more than bitcoin at 5 Million Dollars.
truly,
good to see you all. I am working on a new creation. It is already in motion. no further comment for sum time.
Been wondering how you been doing, Andy.
Good to hear from you.
Glad to see you back Andy, even if just for a short while.
We just got a big ‘postcard’, no envelope, a Christmas greeting from a friend in Hollywood.
Like just got it on May 10.
We sailed 3500nm to get us here in 30 days. USPS took FOUR MONTHS to achieve the same thing when there are flights every day into the country here.
And it cost $1.85!
No one is running that ship. It’s just a drain hole like most of the rest of guvmint.
We were happy to see our friends and the smiling faces of their large happy family.
Bonus.
Stiks
Trump just signed a deal with the Saudi’s on a $600 billion dollar A.I. and defense deal.
– $600 billion !? Love to see the details on that ! Wow ! Are we just selling them shit., or do we actually get something out of this ?
“Saudi Arabia – In Saudi Arabia, the Trump Organization has signed branding deals for two real estate projects, including a Trump Tower in Riyadh, the capital, and another $530m residential tower in the coastal city of Jeddah. The deals, announced a month after Trump was elected to a second term, won’t require the Trump family business to contribute funds toward building the towers, but they will earn millions of dollars in licensing fees. The projects are spearheaded by Dar Global, a subsidiary of Dar Al Arkan, one of the largest real estate developers in Saudi Arabia. The company is privately owned, but it is dependent on contracts from the Saudi government and Prince Mohammed’s favor, especially as he pursues an ambitious development plan called Vision 2030, intended to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil.
In recent years, Trump’s family business has also leaned on the LIV Golf League, which is funded by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. After Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in January 2021, Trump-owned businesses lost a series of real estate and golf sponsorship deals. But Saudi leaders stuck by Trump, and agreed to hold the LIV professional golf tour at several of his US golf courses, providing millions of dollars in revenue while he was out of office.
Qatar – In Qatar, the Trump Organization last month announced a new golf resort and real estate development that will be built by Dar Global, along with a Qatari government-owned developer. The project, called the Trump International Golf Club & Villas, will include an 18-hole golf course, a clubhouse and beachfront Trump-branded villas about 40km from the Qatari capital, Doha. Qatar is a longtime US ally, and it hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East. This is another branding deal for the Trump family business, where it won’t put up any capital but will earn millions of dollars in branding and management fees once the golf resort is operational.
The involvement of Qatari Diar, a real estate company established in 2005 by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, in the Trump Organization’s project raises new concerns about Trump violating the US constitution’s foreign emoluments clause – his plan to accept a $400m luxury jet from Qatar’s royal family notwithstanding. That provision bans the president from receiving payments or significant gifts from foreign governments or leaders without approval from Congress. During his first term, Trump’s businesses received $7.8m from 20 foreign governments, according to a report issued by Democrats in Congress last year. But government watchdog groups estimated that such payments reached $13.6m – and are sounding alarms that Trump could far exceed those sums in his second term, as the family business ventures operated by his two sons are making more foreign deals like the ones with Gulf Arab states.
United Arab Emirates – In the UAE, the Trump Organization already operates Trump International Golf Club, Dubai, which opened in 2017 during the president’s first term. The project is part of a longtime partnership between Trump and Hussain Sajwani, an Emirati billionaire and founder of Damac Properties, a Dubai-based developer. Damac was supposed to build a second Trump-branded golf resort in Dubai, but that project has been beset by delays.
But the Trump family business is moving ahead with other projects in the UAE, including a $1bn, 80-story Trump International Hotel and Tower, being built by Dar Global, the Saudi-owned real estate developer. Apartments at the unfinished luxury tower – which according to the developer will include “the highest outdoor pool in the world” and overlook Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest skyscraper – are already selling for up to $20m each.
And the Trump family’s dealings with Gulf Arab autocrats go beyond real estate deals and golf tournaments. On 1 May, Eric Trump, the president’s middle son, who runs the Trump Organization, and a business partner, Zach Witkoff (who also happens to be the son of Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy to the Middle East), revealed a major new cryptocurrency deal with a venture fund backed by the government of Abu Dhabi, the richest emirate in the UAE. The fund would invest $2bn using a form of digital currency offered by World Liberty Financial, the Trump’s family crypto business.
Such a transaction could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Trump and his family – in a financial deal linked to a foreign government and a longtime US ally.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/13/trump-organization-middle-east-trip
These big huge deals can’t come close to being completed in his term – this stuff will fall to the wayside after he leaves office if they even get started during his term. He fell on the sword for his rich friends – more debt and stocks higher …….ho hum same old same old
They are giving us an excuse to NOT join in with Israel in it’s War with Iran.
That should save us a couple of Trillion $$ and at least a few thousand lives (more likely 20,000+ lives).
Sounds like a good deal to me!!
Wars suck. Commerce not chaos is the current mantra.
A study in Holland last year found that just having good levels of vitamin D, omega-3 [ fatty acids found in oily fish ] and B complex vitamins cut dementia risk by 75%. Add EGCG [green tea extract ] and it goes to 80 %. Low processed foods and an overall healthy diet will also help raise that percentage and cut the risks. Mediterranean Diet was mentioned twice.
Four different studies – four different countries – all using the same four supplements arrived at the same numbers. You can cut the risk of dementia by up to 80%.
I read, and took notes, on all four of the studies – the end conclusion was the same on all four – but they also took care as to not reveal the amount / dosage of each supplement. Just how much was used ? Two of the articles did state – “just having a good healthy level”.., which helps, but does not define an optimum dosage.
But – it is a good foundation for a start-up program – most of which you should already be taking. I am going to keep looking and see if I can find actual numbers for the dosage used of these supplements.
Folks,
What a first class back-handed compliment from Qatar! It’s Royal Family level. Gifting a $400 million jet for use as Air Force One by President Trump? I guess word has spread around the globe that the two planned Air Force One replacement jets with billion dollar price tags are not yet delivered and remain with Boeing. Okay, enough of that. Let’s segue back to the Publisher’s mention above of a national debt matter.
As an aside, those with package delivery issues may be pleased to hear that Qatar Airways publicly announced that it was retiring the last of the venerable B747-8 units from its air cargo fleet a year ago. UPS will be operating them going forward.
Well, it sounds like, “Let’s Make a Deal,” “The Price is Right,” “The Wheel of Fortune,” and WHO AM I, all rolled into one!!!
“Name That Tune.”
The One!!!
Ah … NO more mechanics or spare parts sitting in a local hanger to service the Qatar Royal Ship of State!!
Time to move on to something that the locals will have plenty of experience working on and a deep supply of spare parts over in the hanger. Boeing 787? Boeing 777? or one of those other big really long range ones from Airbus?
btw … the US about a year ago bought 5 747-800s from Korea Airlines to convert to new Doomsday Machines, They will probably be buying another 3 and may buy another 5. This time around the government decided to NOT USE Boeing for the conversion!! If it is taking Boeing 11 years to convert TWO 7474’s con you imagine how long it would take them to convert another 5 (maybe 8 or 10)?
btw will Boeing’s Starliner rocket/capsule even be certified for flights to the International Space Station before it is retired sometime in 2030?
Trump depending on the source is 6’3” or 6’4”. The Crown Prince is 6’0”. I don’t know who that is Saudi but it ain’t Trump unless that’s something else he lies about…….
good point clawsy . i have noticed some changes . i thought that yesterday but thought im batsheet mad .makes 2 of us !!!
People shrink with age. I know I am down by an inch … maybe closer to an inch and a half. Shocked me when they put the ruler on me at my last physical a few months ago. Trump is older than me by a few … so I would guess he is down by at least 1″, maybe closer to 1.5″
hmmmm
thought was 6.3 inches and or 6.4 inches, Ure results may vary..