Covidnomics to Echo 1932 Next

Troubling Thursday begins with a mandatory market check.  Which, in the early Futures pricing today was about what you’d expect for Index Options Day. Dow futures were pointing down some 130-points in the early going.

Upon inspection of our Aggregate Index, we see how troubled markets are lining up for a possible downside surprise next week.

Let me walk you through the chart and much will become clear.  But let’s begin by saying that financial markets are as good as A.I. sometimes, if you understand market dynamics a bit.  Our perspective is based loosely on Elliott Waves, trend channels, and a side of monetary impacts.

Our immediate area of focus is the oval down at the bottom right.

The market dropped well under the small trend channel support line in Wednesday trading.  Still, it managed to come back toward the close.  Now we see in the pre-0pen the market threatening another plunge lower today.

What we might see – and some of this has to do with Options mechanics – might be a decline today and a rally Friday.  Our Peoplenomics subscribers will see the set-up here at a glance.  Once we break to the downside below a supporting trend line, there is often (but not always) a decline under trend (which we will look for today).

The “Rally to kiss the underside of Trend” would then be along, perhaps tomorrow?  Which would then set up a potential free-falling safe move next week as a new – and likely declining – trend asserts itself.

Money Supply Matters

The situation we find ourselves in smacks of 1932 all over again.  Remember, the term “The Depression” did not enter the American lexicon until 1934. Prior to the naming there had been a two-year decline following the 1929 market drop.  Which was not dissimilar to the 2021 November 8th high and following declines.

Back then, remember Bitcoin hit a significant high.  This morning, we notice BTC has completely lost its grip on $30,000 and was trading around $28,736 earlier today.  We would not be surprised to see this halved (e.g. $14,000-ish) by the end of the first week in May.

What should worry the hell out of everyone is that BTC is telegraphing the future.  The kids playing with “hot money” will be the first ones to “get burned” we’re sorry to report.

Data Daily

New unemployment filings:

And the Philly Fed manufacturing numbers were not so good:

“Current Indicators Remain Negative

The diffusion index for current general activity decreased 8 points to -31.3 in April, its eighth consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May 2020 (see Chart 1). Although most firms reported no change in activity (59 percent), the share of firms reporting decreases (35 percent) exceeded the share of firms reporting increases (3 percent). The indexes for new orders and shipments both remained negative but increased this month: The new orders index rose 6 points to -22.7, and the shipments index climbed 18 points to -7.3. Almost 28 percent of the firms reported decreases in shipments (down from 31 percent last month) compared with 20 percent that reported increases (up from 6 percent last month).”

Now, let’s get structural, shall we?

Covidnomics Workout

Have your prepping well topped off by the end of this weekend. Because things could get seriously crazy in very short-order.

Recall that during the Covid (bioweapon) outbreak, the FedGov doled out money like it was going out of style.  To date, to the inept children in government, it looks like the worst is past.  No, wrong, don’t be silly!

See, when everyone went to work from home (with all the government paper blowing in the wind), a time-fuse was lit on commercial real estate.

Our Houston Bureau has a selection of key indicators that should tip the hand on what happens next: Wholesale collapse of the commercial real estate market.  Let’s begin with the Houston Bureau cover note:

Nothing new to our Peoplenomics subscribers who have known our views on this since at least 2011.  The on-point subscriber report is Detroit Versus the Long Wave.  I think we have a canary here…

This report was based on our tour of Detroit’s business core as members of the National Association of Newspaper Columnists which I’ve been a member of for well over a decade.  Detroit had a certain ‘au d crash’ that I haven’t been able to reconcile until just recently.

Seeing the 2011 “success stories” in Detroit’s core was like seeing new construction and “tech will save us” as a flash-in-the-pan in, oh, Caracas, for example.  Tech really hasn’t fixed Detroit and the clock is still running.  It’s the long game that matters.

Funny-Money Laughter Ends

The U.S. experienced a horrific debasement of its currency in order to work through the bioweapon effect.  People went home, and getting used to un-commuting, who wants to sit in traffic, right?  So, you get the real estate crash in commercial that’s just getting legs now.

The larger problem is the matter of Consumer Super-Saturation which we’ve also covered in great depth on the PN side of the house.  The best evidence that a long wave peak in consumption was coming became evident to me when in about 1983 I noticed huge growth in the public storage business.  In fact, the architectural firm two floors down from our radio station studios across from Seattle’s Pike Place Market was working on “cookie-cutter” designs for ever more storage.

You can “block out” the major economic drivers like this as general decades:

  • Basic Sufficiency weas hit in about 1960.  One person working could support a family and even have a modest beater to drive and a couple of weeks of vacation.
  • The Women’s Movement conned women into the workplace circa 1970.
  • What we called progress in the 1980s wasn’t.  Mass consumption was increasing as women earned more and tech brought consumer electronics to the world. Cell phones were dawning.
  • By 1990, offshoring (driven by near-zero cost communications) began to strip out America’s manufacturing core.
  • 2000 saw the Internet buildout bubble burst.  “Terrorism” covered it up. Huge hiring for DHS followed.
  • By 2010, Housing had blown up, America swallowed the terrorism pill as a job-booster to prevent Depression after the tech bubble burst, and the fun was barely getting started.  We entered a time when making money trumped making reliable, functional, and useful products.
  • 2020 landed us in a bioweapon first round of WW III with stocks and crypto hitting all-time highs in November 2021. Until today, as our Houston Bureau called it, the burn is starting again…

Which gets us to studying the impact of the Money Turnover.  Expressed as velocity of M2 *(think ratio of GDP to dollars) it’s a lot like “inventory turns.”

One dollar sitting stable doing nothing is pretty useless.  Get that same dollar to change hands a few thousand times in a year?  Now you’re talking serious economic activity.

The highpoint of all this was Q3 of 1997.

Next week, the Fed will update their money supply figures.  But, the fact of the matter is money has been slowly taken off the table.  Which is why we haven’t seen even higher prices in a period of debt expansion.

Balancing in the narrow channel is what the Fed is trying to do.  And it’s why the regional Fed spokes are talking up the need for a further rate hike in a couple of weeks.  Fed’s Williams: Inflation still ‘too high,’ Fed will act to lower it.  And when they do, the dollar will rise (paying higher interest to global money) which will lower the price of gold (already starting to drop Wednesday) and the “fool’s gold” cards like crypto.

I think that reads you in on most of the Big Picture stuff.  We now return you to the local train wrecks in progress.

Confirmation Bias

Remember when a runaway DoJ was labeled conspiracy theory?  Um…Whistleblower bombshell: IRS agent alleges DOJ thwarting criminal prosecution of Hunter Biden. Surprised?  Hell no.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has other problems, as well: Biden labor secretary nominee Su faces doubts in Senate (startribune.com).  Also being impacted by the Feinstein MIA situ: Here are the Biden judges stalled in the Senate by Feinstein’s absence  | The Hill.

With parent blowback, the vaccine marketers are making another pass at seniors is how we read CDC approves second updated COVID-19 booster for some high-risk groups.

So, what’s for launch?  What time is the Starship launch today? When SpaceX will try to fire rocket again and how to watch live in UK (inews.co.uk)

ATR: Rain Gain

We are likely to get another dump of moisture today as a level 2 storm watch is out for this afternoon.  13.81 inches through yesterday for the year and we’d expect 15 inches by this weekend.  Last year, end of April, we sat at 12.65 for the month, so climate change, such as it is, isn’t turning us into a desert, yet.

We’ll dump the rain gauge and report back tomorrow.

Tractor battery and a food run somewhere in all this.  And Thursday is always fun because we get to play “garbage pickup roulette.”  Three missed pick-ups in the last month and a half.

Go forth and multiply.  And once you’ve done that, some long division.

Write when you get answers,

George@Ure.net

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

56 thoughts on “Covidnomics to Echo 1932 Next”

  1. George,
    I’m surprised you didn’t mention Biden’s new rule rolling out 01 May will cause mortgage buyers with good credit scores to subsidize the mortgages for those (who probably shouldn’t be buying a house) with bad credit scores.
    Fred from SC

  2. https://avia-pro.net/news/nyt-ssha-rassmatrivayut-vozmozhnost-udara-po-rossii-5-tysyachami-tomagavkov-dlya-peregruzki

    story today… but from my perspective it’s a slight of hand trick..
    just if they wanted to even try that..then they should have mentioned that story before Russia activated the dead hand perimeter defense system..and before they sent out the nuclear subs..any guesses where thes are quietly sitting..
    great post from Canadian pepper last night.

    https://youtu.be/-udcXkTmEfA

    • LOOB,

      Thanks for the Canadian Preparedness link. I’ve been subscribed to him for a few years but missed this one. The take-away I remember best is AI (artificial intelligence) is the last great invention on mankind. The 2nd most remembered is the one-percenters that rule the world don’t want to lose there position.

  3. “And it’s why the regional Fed spokes are talking up the need for a further rate hike in a couple of weeks. Fed will act to lower it. And when they do, the dollar will rise…”

    Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital likes both dollars and gold.

    ”I think the U.S. Dollar has some very bad days ahead of it. I just happen to believe before those bad days show up it’s going to put on a show that perhaps will never be forgotten.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlCJFejWwKI

  4. “Upon inspection of our Aggregate Index, we see how troubled markets are lining up for a possible downside surprise next week.”

    Assets moving in tandem is the theme of our call of the day, from TheoTrade’s chief market technician, Jeff Bierman, who sees dark clouds gathering for markets due to “asset auto correlation overload.”

    Bierman, an adjunct instructor at Loyola University’s business school, explains that bitcoin BTCUSD, -1.40%, gold GC00, 0.39%, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.59%, bonds and oil have been “moving together in automatic serial correlation, driven simultaneously by algos,” that is, computer-driven trading algorithms used by Wall Street firms, hedge funds and other big investors.

    There’s nowhere to hide, no diversification in this type of market.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-synchronized-assets-are-pointing-to-a-black-swan-event-says-market-veteran-b143c715?mod=home-page

  5. After watching Starship one explode, I thought wasn’t a quatrain in stu’s books that talk about this occurence?

  6. If COVID was a bio weapon we should have taken the Vaxx. The Vaxx is evidence .gov really does want to keep us safe.

    I think sufficiency was reached around 1861. As hard as it may have been people would homestead & live off the land, freedom. The Frontier times. A clear division of labor between men and women. People who didn’t pull their weight withered and died right away. After 1865 property taxes forced Americans into a system of supporting .gov.

    In 2023 .gov supports the people. Without .gov backstopping the transfer payment complex it wouldn’t be there, as example. Banks, .gov saved banks from implosion just last month. .gov gave us the Vaxx.

    We’re headed into a Caste system.

    • Beg to differ – and we remain unvaxed.

      Our thinking is yes, it was a biowerapon. But in a knee jerk reaction the Feds punted with vaccine of questionable gof lineage.

      Just like atomic energy – they worked with what knowledge they had, but the longitudinal studies on rtadiation even at moderate levels causing cancer takes time. Like what Dr. Campbell has been coming around to – over time the spike is bad whether vexxed or not. Just like there’s no good radiation that comes to mind.

      • super low dose – used to accelerate dna/cell lines, how we get em into the ancient crystal matrix’s so fast – used to develop/grow life forms. they dont work w/o AI to help keep watch.. super low dose, carefully controlled exposure shaves months off the maturity schedule..Ding! new life form done .

        https://youtu.be/pEwEOv1QRk8

      • A lot of moving parts for sure.

        Like chemo or radiation therapy there are risks with side effects to the elixir but the intent is to extend life. If we concede COVID was a bio weapon then .gov’s intent with the Vaxx wasn’t to damage us.

        Perhaps Operation Warp Speed & the mass vaccination program saved humanity. We’ll never know but from where we are now we do know 1,000,000,000 people neither died from COVID or the Vaxx.

        Evidence suggests .gov wants us alive.

        • CDC Director Admits Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Transmission, Blames “Evolution Of Science”
          https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-director-admits-vaccines-do-not-prevent-covid-transmission-blames-evolution-science

          “In 2021, data from the Public Health England and the NHS shows that the vaccinated and unvaccinated had almost identical rates of infectiousness. In other words, a vaccinated person was almost as likely to give you covid as an unvaccinated person.”

          “In the case of the original “wild virus” variant from 2020 to 2021, infections and fatality rates actually plummeted well before the vaccines were widely introduced. This means that natural immunity was the most likely factor in the slowdown of the spread. Transmission was stopped by the human immune system, not the vaccines.”

          Having had all 3 of the well-known varieties and perhaps one last weak strain and self-treated the Delta, Omicron and subsequent infections with medicine from the feed store I can tell you that MOST people’s reaction to the virus was mild flu-like symptoms. The first “wild virus” I treated as if it were any other flu and I was back to work in about 3 days. I did lose one friend to the virus but it was due to his refusal to treat it in any way, shape or form before he had no other choice but to see a doctor about it. The rest is a testament to how well the doctors regard their Hippocratic Oath. Add his brown skin color as a very possible reason for the virus targeting him in such a deadly manner and it was a slam-dunk his hard-headedness is what did him in. Other than that I know of 2 other people that the vaxx did in. If you want to know of others all you have to do is do a search for “Died Suddenly” on TGP.

        • your article was a ‘peer review’. you do know that peer review is a bias control tool. The actual death rate from covid was manipulated to increase gov funding to the health care INDUSTRY, and to spread fear among the masses, to scare them into vaccination compliance.
          None dare argue against the leaders in a peer review, for fear of losing funding, the voices of disagreement are silenced.[you like your job here? Keep your mouth shut]
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6327091/

          Now for a little logic, no unvaccinated person died from the vax. Only vaxxed suckerfish get long covid, it is in the vax. Blood clots can be deadly.
          Now go seek out ‘another george’ the fully vaxxed and boosted,,, and ask him, “how are you doing ‘another george’?”
          aunt c, the ‘WHO’s goal was 70% vax rate, now tell me what % of global population reduction is their goal?

          Gees, @c, did you not read about all the young athletes dying on the field this last couple of years. Un heard of in the past compared to recent occurrences.
          Sudden Adult Death Syndrome, only came to being with the vax,,, SADS is sad, very sad.

          @c, I wonder what you do for a living, where does your paycheck come from? is it tied to a gov or university source or some other org that wants to profit from the “climate change” scam. FEAR PORN is still porn

          ‘Midnight @ the Oasis?,, you’re up late a lot.

          Now for the BIG Question @c,,, how do feel about the UN wanting to protect adults having sex with minors? They want to normalize it. I want to mill stone them!
          Lets talk about Joe’s and Ashley’s shower time.

  7. “People went home, and getting used to un-commuting, who wants to sit in traffic, right? So, you get the real estate crash in commercial that’s just getting legs now.”

    the other side of that coin…. besides working from home… consider these aspects to the situation..

    rent has gone up…. some places greater than 100 percent

    wages did not go up..they raised starting wages but cut hours..

    all insurances spiked

    taxes hiked up as well ours doubled..

    essential services increased exponentially to the situation

    groceries doubled and for some products up 10 times or better..

    What no one is considering is the pre-school teaching..you teach a preschool child..that to build a secure tower you need a secure base..without a secure base the tower will fall.. just like playing Jinga..
    people reverted to plastic money as prices continued to increase..
    During the Reagan recession there were a few tax rebates.
    then the EIC tax credit to get those that spend money ..
    bush’s recalculated how taxes were withheld..giving wage earners an extra burgers worth of spending..
    then the moron that never worked a real world job..
    printed up trillions to rebuild our failing infrastructure…no one has a clue where or who has that
    took away the EIC tax credit from every low income set income.

    brought in millions and millions of illegal refugees
    committed the USA and all NATO countries on the path of economic and military defense collapse. zimbabwe here we come. placing the entire planet on the road to a WW3 Armageddon
    outsourcing even more jobs..
    forced the other major powers to undermine the position of the federal reserve, pound and euro as the currency of value through the creation of a gold backed currency..

    the absolute best that i see that we can expect is a total economic collapse as bad or worse than the Weimar depression..
    39 million dollar loaves of bread here we come..

  8. Bear on the boat:

    Why draw channel lines 60% above lower ascending trend line instead of at parallel tops? Chart question, possibly should have sent private, just axing. I see current move within trend, headed lower.

    Starship: went smashingly for > 2 min then experienced “rapid unscheduled disassembly” as did many from NASA before it. Can’t imagine watching launch coincident with market open. Indigestion.

    Good intel out from Gallup on various demographics who have bought / want an EV. My read? Add “would consider” to “not interested” = 84%. Looks about right. Put me in latter category.

    Mrs. Egor returns from a week +1 visiting her TX sis today. A good thing. Auto home cleaning function is on the fritz and food deliveries have been discontinued. Must need a PIN or PW? TomCat is geeked.

    Write when you get Frau,
    Egor

  9. Off topic but my brother just sent me this –
    AI when it gets into the wrong hands:

    Scottsdale mom describes encounter with elaborate voice cloning scam
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBJvljFBuvg

    All they need is a few seconds of your voice to create another you on the phone. Later it will be fake Face Time messages.

  10. Pizza Rolls
    *ingredients:
    °2 tubes of refrigerated pizza crust
    °garlic salt
    °Italian seasoning to taste
    °1 c mozzarella cheese
    °1/2 c parmesan cheese
    °1 cup pepperoni, sliced ??and chopped
    ° marinara sauce ( pizza sauce)
    *directions:
    Preheat oven 425 degrees F
    Sprinkling flour on a surface and roll out every pizza dough.
    Sprinkling garlic salt also Italian season on every crust.
    Add the mozzarella, Parmesan and pepperoni cubes, brushing about half an inch from the edges of the crust.
    – Starting with a short end, carefully roll the peel into a tight tree trunk.
    Utilize a serrated knife, cut every roll into 1-inch section.
    Put the pizza rolls in a lightly oiled frying pan and bake for 10-12 minutes or until golden brown.
    Enjoy
    another one is frozen dinner rolls
    thaw then flatten put sauce cheese fold seal bake. quick and easy pizza puffs once baked brush with butter and melt cheese on top..

  11. The Philly Fed Factory index contracted in April, representing the eighth consecutive monthly reading of declines in manufacturing activity.

  12. Commercial Real Estate related area is my expertise so I follow that small but important niche, and HUGE CANARY, of the economy closely.

    Washington DC, one of the biggest high tech and white collar towns around had an office occupancy rate (this includes the burbs) of just 47% in March (people who actually show up to work in the offices – Kastle System reports, Kastle provides the card key access to most large properties nationwide). Last week one of the major players in the suburban DC office market just gave 12(?) office buildings back to the lender when it came time for them to refinance them on their balloon mortgage.

    Downtown San Francisco downtown occupancy levels are in the 30% range, down from 100% just prior to the Covid lockdow and the amount of space for sublease has skyrocketed.

    NY City office occupancy has been slowly climbing but as I recall (I don’t really pay attention to NYC so may be off a bit) is still down in the sub 60% level, maybe sub 50%), and there is so much excess office space in the city that there is lots of talk about condo and apartment conversions – though that type of work is very very expensive, almost as much as building a new building if is of skyscraper height.

    Everybody is probably aware that several large real estate syndicators have now defaulted and given up ownership on a number of large office buildings /retail complexes over the last 12 weeks.

    Locally here one Fortune 100 company which had just finished one large office building and is 70% done with the second in a complex it was building put 30% of the first building up for lease and it is presumed that entire second building will be put up for lease. The division that is occupying that office complex is the most profitable division as a % of sales in the entire company and is still growing like mad … can anybody say “Trouble In River City”? (fwiw their overall corporate headquarters is in another city, this complex was just the headquarters complex for that division)

    Like any real estate overview there are still pockets of solid occupancy out there, and pockets that have totally cratered (ie: downtown San Francisco) but overall it is becoming more and more difficult to see those pockets of strong demand.

    Over the next 3 years something like $12-$14 Trillion in commercial real estate loans must be renegotiated per the press reports … and ALL of them are going to be facing refinancing rates that are nearly double what they were when they were last refinanced.

    The PAIN in the Commercial Real Estate side of the economy is JUST BEGINNING!! If you have any REITS it might be time to think about that investment decision NOW. (not investment advise … do your own Due Diligence)

    (caveat … if we go into REAL Hyper-Inflation obviously you want hard assets of some sort vs fixed debt instruments which will lose buying power like crazy which will probably NEVER come back … so DEBT FREE real estate might at that point in time be a good investment)

    • And the Bidenbeast said “And I’ll huff … and I’ll PUFF … and I’ll bllooooooow your house down America – one brick at a time!” I think we’ve got a pretty good pile of bricks laying in a pile that are no longer working for us and keeping us safe.

  13. I am an absolute perma-bear and have been since before 2008 and feel that we have only been papering over all of this debt to create the biggest bubble in history. No surprise there.

    BUT – today is the first day I have felt bullish. That either means the bottom is about to fall out (since I am usually too early on things) or maybe there is still some air left for this bubble.

    WHY? Generative AI. I work in building platforms that serve Machine Learning workloads for a very large cloud software company. Today I was getting information on how my company’s executive leadership views Generative AI – and the speed in which it is evolving. It hit mainstream only 5 months ago and is taking the world by storm.

    This is a true disruptor that many of us ‘older’ folks (> 40yrs old) have not seen in decades. Generative AI is real, it is disruptive, and it is still very early in the evolution and software companies are taking note.

    If anything can keep this incomprehensibly large bubble going, it is this.

    • Caution Flag thrown on the field!

      Ure says great, nifty, neat. But with a ability to self code, AI will not need as many humans and we will end up machine feeders. In other words, no net job increases and I expect much fewer net employed.

      Which is why on the subscriber side, we have long held that complex code and complex machinery, should all be taxes at a rate reflective of the income tax revenues they displace. As people come out of the loop, government is about to experience Ure’s Wall. Where increasing technology further differentiates from human capital required.

      When human capital costs go to zero, money and humans will be gone. Take it to the bank.

      • true, longer term that’s exactly it. but the blow-off top is the A.I. mania that happens before the people are reminded from the equation

  14. Nov 2021 the VIX hit it’s lowest count at 15.01.., this is also the stock market high. Yesterday the VIX hit it’s lowest count, 16.46, since Jan 2022.
    So, despite the controlled media screaming “sentiment is still too bearish” – and that may be true in some cases – the results of actual market betting is showing something different. Capitulation of the bears.
    This does not mean the market will crash tomorrow. It simply means, despite all the market hype., that fear is subsiding. ., and if you study the charts, when the VIX is this low., “bottoming-out”, the stock market has reached it’s high. It could go a little higher., but the overall trend, now, should be down.
    The S&P500 is still 39 points below it’s Feb high. If it fails here and continues downward, then the Feb high will be 2 in the wave count. And my Aggregate shows we are over 900 points below Feb’s high. ., and has changed just fifty points in three weeks.
    It seems that the markets are hung up.., the Bears have slowly pulled away., but the bulls just don’t want to commit.., which is probably very wise.
    The media is saying one thing – but the numbers – the charts – are saying something different. I’ll go with the charts.
    We could go a little higher from here., but my bet is that we are about to head lower.
    One thing that has popped into my head every time I start playing “what if ?” with the numbers and charts.., the stock market has never crashed ‘before’ a recession hits. Never. So.., we are either in a well hidden, papered-over recession and the markets are about to crash – or we still have weeks., maybe even months before something pulls the rug out from under the market / economy / society.
    And I don’t see any good news that would bolster the markets. The political rhetoric, warmongering, debt ceiling., god-awful scary deficit, global weakening on all financial levels, racial and ethnic hate starting to boil-over, I don’t see anything good “out there”. Globally.., we really suck right now.
    Good luck to us all….,

  15. BELLINGHAM, Wash. (AP) — A ban on dozens of semi-automatic rifles barely cleared the Washington state Legislature on Wednesday and the governor is expected to sign it into law immediately. The Washington law would block the sale, distribution, manufacture and importation of more than 50 gun models. The measure does not bar the possession of the weapons by people who already have them.
    “HB 1240 clearly violates our state and federal constitutions, which is why it will end up in court immediately,”

    • yeah. after leaving Washington state. I will only come back to visit while there is a Washington state. I know alot of people moving out of it.

    • a big 10-4 on the 4-20,,, I read the Fauci files drop earlier today,,, things are looking up, I AM hugh-ly optimistic,,, must be the 420 attitude/altitude.
      critical mass approaches, that is when the hammer will drop.
      It is the awareness of the human mass, that is the fuel of this reaction.

  16. “Write when you get answers”
    42… the ultimate answer. (Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams)

    • long before hitchhiking was a thing.

      “42 is the number with which God creates the Universe in Kabbalistic tradition. In Kabbalah, the most significant name is that of the En Sof (also known as “Ein Sof”, “Infinite” or “Endless”), who is above the Sefirot (sometimes spelled “Sephirot”).

      Douglas Adams must have had Kabbalah influences.

  17. Washington State Ban on ARs and AK47s passed legislation today. governor should sign it into law this week.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/semi-automatic-rifle-ban-passes-washington-legislature-98709036

    good thing I left that state prior to things unfolding as they are.

    train wrecks? really George. hahaa. no train wrecks over here. job security and good living. I used to be a train wreck a couple 3 years back. funny how DUDE takes things I was no Good at and Turns it around and makes excellent at it.

    according to scripture ‘in my weakness. Gods strength is personified.” and where I’m Strong. God uses that as well for His advantage.

    we didn’t run last night. when it gets down to 11 degrees last night. oh there is that eleven again. wait that is two.

    it’s too cold to run my kind of trains. so I sat in the break room and read the entire book of Enoch again. pretty getting paid to read the Book of Enoch.

    last comment for a while. talk like train wrecks when I’m driving trains. well, you don’t need me around Here filling in the blanks. you got it all figured out.

  18. I thought stu said it was going to be a bloody couple days april 17 to 19th. hmmm. well we will give it a couple more days to see what unfolds. huh.

    everything looks peachy from my view of things. just cold outside. but it is warming up into the 50s next week.

    I might leave the country before it gets too bad. THE DUDE has me right where I’m supposed to be. always in the right place at the right time. all the time.

    I can’t lose with THE DUDE leading the way. I’m always in the right place at the write time.

    currently that is sitting 1.24 miles above sea level and over a thousand miles from the coast and the stench of all those hard left Liberal sins, eroding at good peoples lives, which stretches to heaven until, you know. The big guy at the top, has had enough of it.

    see ya man. I see no train wrecks in my future. I could be gone as soon as tomorrow. you never know where I will be next.

    • If we’re going to look toward the future it’s best to have a host of advisors and average things out. Put all the seers together and they’re like the analogy of the blind men feeling up their corner of an elephant and giving their description thereof. It’s left to us to see how things pan out given the nearly infinite number of variables involved.

  19. you know the first country song I ever remembered paying attention to was when I was wee little boy? it was in a laundry mat, and I playing marbles on the floor and it caught my attention. and I thought, what a strange song.

    it is actually one of the very first songs that ever really got my attention. sat me straight up on the floor and i listened intently.

    cue: ~ ocean front property ~

    https://youtu.be/ioPa1URjZ_Y

    George Strait

  20. George,
    Some further thoughts on the office real estate problem.
    What will be the effect on municipal tax bases? Many cities are currently experiencing revenue short falls.

    What will be the effect on the regional banks holding the paper on commercial real estate?

    How will mass transit systems deal with the loss of commuter use? There are already problems here with drug users and other disruptive people.

    What will be the effect on the businesses that depend on commercial real estate or office workers for their source of money?

    Is the commercial real estate collapse the beginning of a larger downward spiral?

    Just an observation but this issue seems to be generating a fair amount of doom porn.

  21. wow. it says that song came out in 1987. that can’t be. I know I heard it when I was 5 in 1975. I was according to Google that says the song came out in 1987.

    I distinctly remember it playing on the radio when I was 5 years old. and playing marbles on the floor of the laundry mat. when it came on the line throwing the golden gate in free. I asked my mother if the Golden gate was heaven. and she said no it was a bridge in San Francisco.

    I remember hearing that song on the radio when I was 5 years old. and there was something about it that made me sit right up and pay attention to it.

    I couldn’t have heard it when I was 17 in a laundry mat. I was living on my own at age 17. on casino road.

    hmmm…

    another “mandella affect” I spose.

    • You could have.

      I first heard Heart’s “Crazy on You” in late 1972 or early 1973.

      I absolutely guarantee that, because I know exactly where I was and what I was doing, and it was a place I have never been in since.

      I played Wolfenstein 3-D in 1986. I guarantee that, as well, and have witnesses to both events.

      Sometimes, the time at which something is attributed to have happened doesn’t exactly coincide with observed fact.

  22. George,
    re:
    ” What we might see … a decline today and a rally Friday. ”
    Concur.

    The current x/2-2.5x/2x+ weekly fractal growth pattern since March 2022 is 29/72/59 weeks: (use Nikkei or Wilshire or CAC). The ideal fractal base of a 72 week second fractal is 29 weeks (29 weeks times 2.5 = 72 weeks). For the Nikkei, observe the 72 week 14/30/30 week second fractal’s nonlinear gapped lower low between Friday 3 March 2022 and Monday 6 March 2022. The third fractal of 59 weeks is one week beyond the ideal 2x length of 58 weeks. The 59 week third fractal is composed of two sub-series starting 3/7 to 3/8 2022. The first is a 5/11/10/7 week sub-series with an 11 week second fractal nonlinear gapped lower low between week 10 and week 11. The second sub-series is further divided into two sub-series: a 9/21/21/14 day fractal series starting on 9/29 2022 and ending on 12/28/2022 to 1/3/2023. (A three day range for the nadir valuations for three composites: Wilshire, CAC, Nikkei.)
    The final sub-series for the Wilshire is a 15/37/29 of 30 ( the first day of the 29 day third fractal is up-going.) Friday 21 April is the 30th day reflecting a 2x third fractal growth length. The fourth decay fractal is expected to be 20-22 days in length, which places the low valuation on May 18-22.

    The 20-22 day fourth decay fractal will reflect the credit money contraction/credit crunch that exists in the asset-debt system’s ongoing state of condition: the historically rapidly raised fed funds rates, bank failures, corporate bond paper losses, ongoing debt defaults, collapsing money supply, and individual consumption and debt saturation.

    A March 2020 4 phase monthly pattern of 8/18(ideal 7m first fractal base)/14 of 15/10 months would place a lower low or higher low in January 2024.

  23. Wife dragged me to Cancun last week. Had a great time seeing Mayan ruins and relaxing under an umbrella with someone bring adult beverages on request. We stayed in an air B&B so avoided most of the touristy resort areas. Most depressing thing about the trip was passing by a couple of offices of Berkshire Hathaway Home Services and realizing they had their hooks in this beautiful area.

    Working in the Dallas area this week passed by some large corporate offices with partially filled parking lots. See the effects of everyone working from home; not only are there a lot of empty offices but there are also a lot of empty parking spaces. Maybe the property owners can dig up the parking spaces and grow crops or something and claim an Ag tax exemption.

  24. pay attention! this is important and my final because I am in motion. it is all related.

    I am not the cause. but the casue follows me.

    I will remin you all. (note there is people on the future who will read this site in order to assess the time line)

    the last time I left Seattle and relocated to another area. the first case of covid was discovered in Snohomish, Wa 2 weeks after i left that area. exactly one block from where I was prior to my departure after seeing a young lady named Ms. Love. what happend 2 months later? the pandemic. chaos unfolded at Capitol Hill in Seattle, George Floyd etc etc.

    also note my standing in the dirt well as both the living water and a living Holon at the “point of creation”.

    having arrived in Palm Desert California at the exact moment Trump landed on Airforce One at Palm Springs Airport.

    inbetween my depart from Snohomish, Wa and arrival at Palm Desert, CA I experienced NDE #12.

    also my path when in my travels from Palm Desert to Cour D’ lane, ID and back to Palm Desert, CA and then back to Spokane. Wa, marked the exact path that the record forest fires ever recorded in both California, Oregon and Washington State. which all took place exactly 2 months after me traveling that path.

    current situation:

    2 weeks to the day I departed from Seattle, Wa. The state passed a law against obtaining semi automatic rifles.

    also note the change on the fault lines near Oregon coast and Baja Mexico as it relates to the release of bubbles and shifting of fault lines.

    chaos is coming.

    ->>>It is my greatest hope, that I am wrong. I don’t think that is the case tho.

    after reading the book of Enoch last night the series of 11’s I have been seeing relate to the coming Chaos. which will start shortly.

    According to the Book of Enoch. the ArchAngel Michael is the Chief of Chaos.

    the Australian I spoke to on glp about the 3 year anniversary of me being an example of a living holon, is correct. it’s too late to prepare. it’s already begone.

    you can be pissed all you want. I have nothing to do with these situations. I didn’t create them. however, they have and are unfolding in synch with my life and departure and follow my personal life trajectory. the only thing I can say really is THE DUDE keeps me safe, from such events.

    i dotn take revenge. most of the time. that is not my department..

    for some reason. the ArchAngel Michael and I are connected. He protects me. placing me where even a mile high tsunami would not reach me, and I can hunt dear, bear, turkey year round.

    I also know the ArchAngel Michale is the protector of the Righteous.

    as I wrote this. a Giant Raven landed a foot away and looked at me. hello Odin.

    The raven symbolizes prophecy, insight, transformation, and intelligence. cool.

    and I have moved to a place where there is zero cell phone service.

    this may be my final post ever on this site. time to focus on what is in front of me.

    which I am able to travel so much all over which was a beta test upon leaving Alaska where I was in 7 different states within 10 days. you never know where I will be. it’s time to not have an internet finger print. always best to be ahead of things.

    I honestly believe The Great Chastisement spoken about in the culmination of over 2000 years of Catholic Prophecies, The Book of Enoch and the Christian Bible, and many other books, and ancient texts

    has begun.

    good luck.

  25. p.s. you may not be aware yet.

    In a rare discovery, scientists have found that the Moon is slowly drifting away from the Earth.

    never in recorded history has the moon moved from its orbit.

    the distance it is moving will increase at a faster rate.

    how do you think the moon moving farther away from the earth will affect the displacement of the earth’s fault lines?

    but go ahead. keep rambling about Biden and Trump and all the distractions. it’s your right to do so. don’t let me stop you.

    and as Enoch said, in a sudden moment. all the rich who placed their hope in their riches, where wiped of the earth.

    it’s not my fault if your not paying attention.

  26. you, remember those pictures from the future of America that were in the bank of america late 90s. the one with the eclips above and the blond kid standing on the chess board who I thought was Trump? and all the other figures down below.

    that eclips in the picure happened the same night my whole life became a series of 11’s. the same exact night.

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-to-watch-the-rare-hybrid-solar-eclipse-from-your-home-180982008/

    something is definitely happening. big changes.

    everything is coming together

    I won’t be back to this site for a long while. time to think. focus on what is infront of me. and we’ll, I don’t think I will be in this place I’m at much longer. just a hunch.

  27. I don’t understand.

    That hybrid eclipse happend the same day my entire life turned into a series of 11’s. Got moved to hotel room 11, got switched to Ore Train number 11 and started working five 11’s. 11 is the master number of prophecy. And I’m working in the valley of Enoch. Enoch, the seventh son from Adam is widely known as the First Prophet. Then a. HUGE raven shows up tonight and landed a foot away from me and is also a symbol of prophecy. Well, I don’t know any prophecy yet. Hahaha. But I’ve never seen this much symbolism having to do with prophecy ever presented to me. Ever. I don’t understand why THE DUDE, is going out of HIS way to make such a point to me about it. I don’t think I’m a prophet. I have intuition pretty good. But not like Enoch did.

    11 master number of prophecy
    the day of the eclipse my life changes in less than 24 hours to seven 11’s in the valley of Enoch.

    and Enoch is widely known as the first prophet ever and was the 7th son from Adam.

    seven elevens.

    I mean that is a ridiculous amount of references to prophecy. I’ve never seen anything like it before. ever.

    I am chosen. or elect. I understand that. I just don’t understand what it all means yet. am I going to be a prophet? idk. ive never seen so many different symbols relating to prophecy all in such a condensed time frame in my presence.

    I don’t really want to be a prophet. however, if THE DUDE, thinks so. so be it. DUDE Knows the stuff I don’t.

    I’d rather just be on the beach somewhere, with a pretty girl, warm, relaxing. not care in the world.

    fuck, I gotta go.

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