Markets in Coriolis
Enjoy the euphoria while you can. There are serious reasons for concern which we will poke at for a moment. Since getting the rest of the year wrong could be life-altering.
September is almost traditionally one of the worst-performing months for the stock market. It is up there – in reliability – with old market sayings like “sell in May and go away…” Doesn’t mean you should pull in your horns and sell everything. (We don’t give advice, only commentary.) If we offered “advice” it would come down to “Don’t be stupid!”
There’s a Blow-Off Underway
I couldn’t sleep overnight (too much personal energy). So I looked at the rate-of-change in the U.S. market based on our Aggregate Index work. Which is an equally-weighted measure of three leading indices. Here’s how it looked:
Column #4 Matters. That’s the annualized rate of gain based on market performance.
It’s hinting that if you put $100 into the market back in, oh, June. You would have an account worth $138.91. (Fess excluded.) Although this sounds even better than the Crypto tulips on the surface, it’s not sustainable.
Markets normally reflect at least some corner of Reality. Covid bio-weapon is still circulating and killing, America lost billions worth of war materiel in Afghanistan, and the southern Border is wide-open.
We can blame the communist takeover in Washington. Or, we can see it as Caracas-in-waiting. And maybe not waiting too long.
The 900 Pound Elephant
Before next Labor Day weekend, we expect China will have seized Taiwan. Despite “American happy-talk” about chip plants here, the reality is the Phoenix area is on the border and the plants are not online and won’t be for months.
China is playing America (and our dim-witted leadership [say, there’s overstatement for you!]) like a fine fiddle. Buying up chips which in turn idles our production capacity. When they take Taiwan, we will have few military options and scant hopes of resupply.
Electronic components aren’t and hollowing out American Manufacturing has verged on treasonous. Unless you’re drinking the Globalist Kool-Aid. And profiting thereby.
Even if the skies part and peace breaks out, we’re still going to the “financial wall” for that “last smoke and blindfold.”
Social Security running out of money is coming into view. Over at The National Interest” read the article Social Security Could Be Bankrupt by 2029. Sobering and just eight years away.
This will be a nation-wrecking event. Because one political party will appeal to its radical (and did I mention increasingly selfish/narcissistic?) base. They’ll try to hold the line on young paying into the crooked “underpay as you go” system.
The Accounting Party – which gets the facts right but blows up tactics – will properly explain to the young that “If you don’t pay Social Security, Mom and Dad will spend through your inheritance!”
People don’t like hard choices. Americans run and hide from Reality. And Children are called that because they can’t make grown-up decisions. Because we sent them to leftist brainwashing camps (schools with bankrupt curricula).
Old-Timers Already See It
Retired financial whiz buddy of mine (*Roger Reynolds) sent out a note to his flock this weekend. He talks plainly of a second demographic bomb likely to go off:
“I subscribe to marketviews.tv(an interview program of several money managers) and a guest last week made some interesting comments. He said inflation will remain at 4-5 percent for 12-18 months or more. And he said the research of current market indicators, when triggered, showed a historical 35 percent market decline. Also that the 70 plus year old money managers are raising cash to be very conservative, BUT wall street is now run by the younger, middle aged folks that have never seen a bear market and KNOW NO FEAR.”
There’s a reason: they know NOTHING.
The Federal Reserve is Hiding Data
We have a saying on the Peoplenomics.com side of the house. When the government (or proxies) hides economic data its because a thorough screwing – which would have been obvious in the data – will be at hand shortly.
Which is why for all the economic bullshit, Allan Greenspan’s hiding of M3 money stocks meant the bailout of the Rich would be along shortly. And why Jerome Powell’s decision (with co-conspirators) to stop WEEKLY detailed Money Supply Data was another (and bigger!) con..
Sure – the Fed reports M1 and M2 – but so far in arrears that only well-connected INSIDERS will see when money is being made up. And when tranches pop, there go markets and we, the little people, get f**ked.
(To quote Talking Heads (on “Days of Our Lives“): “Same as it ever was…”)
Yeah…it IS different this time only until we go looking for the “sand in the Vaseline…” They’re still in office..
Elaine and I have been planning to rebuild the decks on the house. We told you months ago that when lumber was racing Musk to the Moon we’d hold back till fall.
But click over here and see how Lumber contracts are doing: We’ll lock and order this week. Not a big deal, but right now is not a bad time to nail down home construction plans. Not advice, but pointing out we’ve been watching and you can see the charts for yourself.
In the Shorts
We notice this IED-lined path ahead is being blazed by the NY Times. Long the leading mouthpiece for radical liberal views, they’re rolling with an OpEd on how Venezuela ain’t so bad. Try not to get queasy reading “Opinion | Dollarization Is Helping the Collapsed Venezuelan Economy, for Now. Please, Times, stop bitching about Texas, too. Leave us the f**ck alone and fix your own rotten apple that Gotham has become on ya’ll’s watch.
Ramp-up of Gun Control Hype Due: This liberal agenda item nearly sure to surge following a Florida shooting: A former marine killed 4 people, including a child.” While a normal person would react that it’s a terrible tragedy, I give it 24-hours before fund-raising emails to ban guns to start rolling in. Yep – we live in a country where any tragedy can be turned into money.
No. It wasn’t Climate Change. It was Weather. Biden approves New Jersey disaster declaration.
Data stack notices Programming? We are inclined to be on the look-out for the term “four letter word” which has popped in several news items, of late.
Examples: Ken Burns Names Muhammad Ali’s Secret Weapon: An ‘Uncomfortable’ 4-Letter Word. And again in For EU, Afghanistan is now a four-letter word. So is this a coinkydink? Or is there a four-letter something leaking in from future? We’ve made a note that the next four-letter word on the 2021 Hurricane name list is Rose. We’re only on Larry right now. Something else or just noisy data?
Holiday At the Ranch
We had a hell of a fine dinner last night. Made beef stroganoff with some cut-down rib steaks. It was marvelous!
Wrong Audience (Case #1): Exactly zero feedback so far on what I thought was a pretty damn interesting couple of articles on the evolution of parasitic optimized wire antennas. Not that I really need to push that envelope, much. The SuperAntenna IV got a great contact out of Sarajevo (E71A) on the low end of the 20-meter band. 100-watts and 599…thank you! I figure around mid-morning AC7X will be cruising the low end of 20 again. After a riding mower session. (OK, this is not an ee forum…)
Wrong Audience (Case #2): Exactly zero feedback on Amazon (e.g. no reviews) of my new book Packing to Die: Suitcase between your ears…” Read and review, please.
On both audience questions this lil “voice in my head” whispers “Pearls before…?”
“Naw….this is the brightest audience in the world!” says Big Voice.
“Are you absolutely certain?”
“Let me get back to you on that. People get busy, though…”
W00-Woo: Kissing the Future
Buddy Roger out in Tucson sent me a membership deal for the International Association of Consciousness, or some-such, this week. Link didn’t work. But, both Elaine and I have been considering working on OBE/Astral travel for a while.
Many courses and probably one of the longer books on point is Projectiology: A Panorama of Experiences of the Consciousness Outside the Human Body but at $200-bucks I’m looking at other information sources.
Although astral travel and out of body work is one way to sniff around the future, I spent a couple of hours Sunday working on another angle which I think you’ll find interesting.
Don’t know if you’ve ever had this experience, or not: But have you ever been driving, come to a bend in the road and taken your foot off the gas for no particular reason? I mean other than it was the “right thing” to do? And then been shocked when an animal runs in front of your car, or there’s a wreck? Big “Whew!” moment.
I get these often. Not all the time. But every month or two.
Decides to do some deeply focused meditations on those moments. Trying to recapture the feelings involved. And that’s where it got “interesting.”
The idea was I’d “try on” different ways of “remembering” those occurrences. When I went “in”
to the memory deeply, what “triggered?”
Was there a particular light or illumination involved? Or, was there a sound? Do these things happen at a particular time of day? Any memory of a taste? Smell? Anyone with you?
What’s come out of it so far (and this will really sound “out there”) is by going back and “re-experiencing” several such events I discovered a kind of second-self that looks out for the waking world self.
Very interesting thing to meditate on. And I don’t think it will hurt when the work starts (maybe next year) on the OBE/astral work.
See, the thing is, OBE/Astral travel is not something that usually happens when driving a car or when taking a 10-minute break from a project in waking state. This “direct meditation on a hunch or intuition that works out” however IS very much accessible in the normal waking state.
Got into lo0king at this while reading the new IONS (Institute of Noetic Sciences) book The Science of Channeling: Why You Should Trust Your Intuition and Embrace the Force That Connects Us All. Which goes along nicely with other books on self-development.
Sure, I know some people like OBE/Astral (particularly in witchcraft work) but approaching the subject in the waking state not only keeps down the costs of candles, salt, and such, but in addition is a lot safer.
Do a little study sometime on risks of astral (craft) work around mirrors, for example. Lots of negative energy seems drawn to mirrors, possibly because it’s one way to “trick the consciousness into disassociating” from the physical body. Not too unsafe, claim many practitioners, provided you do the clearing work first and surround yourself with enough protective energy.
The waking approach to higher self seem intuitively less risky and more “first person.”
So off to ponder those (few) moments in Life where you really get “hooked up” with “the Dude.”
Not that what follows is easy: “A sinking ship that is raised and then is in danger of sinking again” was rather clear in the Dream Realms overnight. Coming with hurricane Rose? Who knows! But ship is a four-letter word…hmm…
Coffee and 2-acres of mowing, anyone?
Write when you get rich,