What we have today is the “target-rich environment” for investigation, introspection, and investment. There are so many pieces in play, it’s hard to know where to start.
This being Friday, though, let’s get the little (but important) items off the list first:
You will recall our target level from our Elliott Wave spreadsheet modeler for a possible Wave 2 bounce of Bitcoins from their top was $16,297. This morning it was $16,000 so definitely zeroing-iu on that objective. We could go as high as $19,500, though, since under Elliott, a retracement of up to 100 percent of the initial decline is possible. Rare, but possible.
Of course, above and we go to the $35,000 range – in theory – while a drop below $11,000 spells the end of the Mania and the return to “normal” – if your idea of normal is texting instead of speaking.
Gotta say, I’d think that with phone calls so easy – and withj voice-driven dialers – if people had something to say to one-another, they’d use the fastest and least intrusive means available. They don’t. So our label of the Phone-ee people as “button-pressing apes” remains vaild.
Oh,, sure, people argue “Security!” as a justo for texting. But even here, there are alternatives. Learn to speak an obscure foreign language. Works faster than texting and is quite secure, unless you run in circles that speak Swahili or Aztec dialects of Peru. And then there’s high-speed Morse, of course.
Of course those options actually involve learning and thinking, so I can understand how the Lazy99 stupid people roll. It’s also why there is a one-percent.
Next up, we have the stock market: We’re halfway to our 2,750 region on the S&P, and don’t be surprised to see the Dow pop another hundred today…which gets us to the Jobs Report just out from the Labor Department:
“In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The
number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month.
Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by
0.6 percentage point and 926,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6
percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment
rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent),
Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little
or no change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 116,000 in December. New
entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked.”
Our nickel worth of notes:
The Labor Participation Rate was unchanged @ 62.7%
The portion of the population working hasn’t changed.
Importantly, the U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force was up 1/10th to 8.1% long-term unemployed.
And the CES Birth-Death model month-on-month estimate of new jobs actually took away 180,000 jobs.
Where’d Climate Change Go?
Sounds like something out of a sci-fi book: “Quietly, overhead, the Sun was going out…”
While it does, and we ought to have the new solar cycle progression tomorrow or Monday, the media’s stupid, shrill, scream to draw ad money continues. For example?
Sessions is Wrong
With the US Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, trying to stuff the pot genie back in the hookah, the keen observer of Economic Cycles will be laughing at how the present-day parody of the 1920’s blow-off top is working out.
First, as background, have a read of “New Pot Policy by Trump Administration Draws Bipartisan Fire” so you’ll follow our wryrony. (*wry irony, if the bean hasn’t kicked-it yet.) Roast ’em kiddies, it’s time for the ever-popular…
Friday Potonomics Lecture
One upon a time, the US had a previous “war on drugs” and it ran the social underground during the run-up to the Great Depression. In other words, during the 1920’s Prohibition. Incept? 1920. Terminus: December 4, 1933.
Notice anything odd?
“Garsh, Mickey…you mean that Prohibition finally ended just as the Great Depression was hitting its depths? Giving people a legal course to get high and ease the woes of poverty? Oh, and paying a tax,, too?”
Bingo, bongo, my hookah honeys. Old Jeff Sessions – whether he realizes it, or not – is doing the same thing that happened just ahead of The Crash of ’29 – when the powersthatwere all doubled-down on the Prohibition.
And it follows: the S.A. gangs are walking in the same gang ruts that the Scicilians wore back then – along with the Irish mob, depending on city and century.
When you take a look at longer-term history, just like some states and municipalities were harder (or looser) on alcohol in the 1920’s, the same is true today.
And just as the Flappers were the sexual revolutionaries of back in the day, we have the Hundred Genders Movement, as we like to call it, echoing the same macro socioeconomic wave today. Wiki me, Alexa:
“Flappers were a generation of young Western women in the 1920s who wore short skirts, bobbed their hair, listened to jazz, and flaunted their disdain for what was then considered acceptable behavior. Flappers were seen as brash for wearing excessive makeup, drinking, treating sex in a casual manner, smoking, driving automobiles, and otherwise flouting social and sexual norms. Flappers had their origins in the liberal period of the Roaring Twenties, the social, political turbulence and increased transatlantic cultural exchange that followed the end of World War I, as well as the export of American jazz culture to Europe.”
Yep. Gay and TG rights advocates of today may be portrayed by future historians as also being brash for wearing excessive makeup, drinking, treating sex in a casual manner, smoking, driving automobiles, and otherwise flouting social and sexual norms.
Granted, the music is different, but it’s the new “sexual mores” are all part and parcel of the giant historical rhyme we are meandering through now. Lik,e a maze, but with higher Uh……………………………taxes and shrill social.
The hard times will be here soon enough. And when they do, the Great Hunger of the 1930’s will return, the money will become scare, and hard times will be upon the land again. Like it, or not, that’s how history rolls.
Is Sessions an idiot, as many of our readers feel?
Ummm….The Truth in the Big Zoom Out is both Yes and No.
Yes, he’s trying to yell at a great social tide that runs a certain way every three generations,. or so. That always ends with wet feet.
No, he is following his conservative leanings and what much of the Southern base holds to. The same South that preaches temperance on Sunday but all hit the package stores Friday… Maybe no has passed Jeff a good hand-rolled hogleg, yet…
It’s still not to late to read Strauss and Howe’s The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny.
Unlike many writers on contemporary events, I try to remember that being a reporter, writer, commentator is a three operation process: There’s input, followed by cogitation and reflection, and this at some point results in output.
What makes this website different than the wasteland of social media is we try to spend as much time on inputs and information-gathering as spewing. While we may not have a viral video, or 93,000 Likes, we do have a certain peace of mind and perspective that keeps the blood pressure in-check and our spirits and energy high.
Everyone – bar none – is locked in the Dance of Destiny at some level.
We hold to the view that President Warbucks is walking the same ruts as President Hoover. In turn, Jeff Sessions’ attack on pot laws is his effort to turn back the tide of history. Which, oh, by the way, always fails.
History is bigglier than Warbucks and Sessions combined.
Are we thrilled about having a real estate mogul on Pennsylvania Avenue when he’s off the links? Frankly it doesn’t matter. It’s the same as the successful mining engineer (who was Hoover) the last time this cycle came around.
I know it’s crazy, but thanks to the mind-warping and spew that comes out of Social Media, people these days will glom on to something like Bitcoins, Hundred Genders and Social Justifiers and before that it was global coastal events that would sink us all in a grand cataclysm around, oh, December of 2012.
Those things work(ed) because people intuitively KNOW that cycles are REAL.
But they are also soft.
Rather than study the work and weritings of the great researchers, Chris Carolan, Peter Eliades, Steve Puetz, Jim Goulding (and maybe me) it’s easier to justr spew. Even though there’s a bunch of us who have been “in the loop” on this for decades now…
Back in 2003, for example, my friend of mine (bond tradcer) Jim Goulding wrote a marvelous short book “Winter is Coming” in which he summarized some of the expectations for this period. The link will get you to the Kindle version. It’s a bond trader’s take on how the rubber of Strauss and Howe meets the economic road.
All of us have been plagued by the same issue, though: Nailing the timing. Like I said, the cycles are soft. No one bangs a gong.
2018 should be it. But. until we have that fateful morning when we wake up and the Dow has dropped four thousand points overnight, we can’t be sure.
Or, until the flash-bangs of nukes begin, or Taiwan falls, or Israel is vaporized… then you’ll know The End of the good times is here. Depression follows.
Between now and whenever?
Each of us has evolved a “Way”. Eliades has prodigious research. Carolan has the Spiral Calendar, Arch Crawford is expert in astro-econ, I work on Aggregate Markets, while Puetz has a Grand Cycle theory – and his work on crashes is marvelous.
But there are mechanical aspects, too. Which is why the Youssefmir, Huberman, and Hogg work on Bubbles and how they form proximate to news events is also useful.
For this weekend, though, you can relax. We normally don’t see a BIG BAD-ASS CRASH for a couple of months from new market highs. We expect the earliest for the collapse will be the “sell in May and go away” window this year.
But barring flash-bangs on the Peninsula, a summer market absolute high makes more sense with a horror Octoberish of this year.
After that? Depression. That’s to be followed with the long wave trough war, which my consiglieri’s work has pegged (since 1979 BTW) in that 2023-2025 area..with 2024 the center of the data curves.
I have probably said too much, but then not enough… so more details for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.\
We calls ’em like we sees ’em…and for now, Warbucks reprising Hoover pulled the bonus Congressional Election Cycle. Which means instead of crash in the first year of his term, it’s counting more like the third year will be it.
Gosh, I bet this feels good, doesn’t it? Our model has been long for more than a year…and we can see the way to another 9-months of upside and a Dow stretching toward 30,000. Gold should hit its $2,500 target, too.
We do recommend that you set aside $40 of Ure winnings for Peoplenomics because I won’t often be this clear in public. Just a low-profile crank in the East Texas outback.