Cocktail Napkin Economics: Will Retail Bust?

by

Cocktail Napkin Economics – CNE – is our focus before returning to “money-grubbing trader” activities.

Economics does NOT have to be so full of bullshit and mathematical obfuscations.  It got this way because of “quants.”  Economics, understand, is at its core pretty simple.  People will generally earn and spend in their own best interests.  Thence came the field “Behavioral Economics.”  Yet, without humans being, there would be exactly no economics, so yes, all economics is behavioral at the transport layer.

If you read enough Federal Reserve Papers – very smart people, but definitely a “quant-dominated” organization, there’s a prototypical layout to any “acceptable” economics presentation.  Generally, it has a Premise, optionally some History, and then a helpless pile of Obscure-to-incomprehensible Mathematics leading to a preconceived Conclusion.

You don’t really need the heavy math. A cocktail napkin will do great for 99 percent of economics.  With the proviso you don’t use the wet one from under a drink.  I call this simply “Cocktail Napkin Economics.”

I daresay MOST economics papers begin with the cocktail nappy, get spiced up with mathematical bullshit (required for the Big Pay Checks – since no one is going to pay for cocktail napkin scribbles…) and it’s then reviewed and published.  Seldom do the raw math trackers and extenders get anywhere useful. But they get paid. Well.

Today’s Pre-Retail Napkin (*NapTalk)

We don’t need complex formulae, or a copy of the Fed’s DSGE model reduced to a LibreCalc sheet.  Or Excel for the well-heeled.

“The what’d you call it model?”

“Our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model generates forecasts for key macroeconomic variables and serves as a tool for policy analysis.”

Yes, right over here on this NY Fed page you can read all about it.  But, it’s big, expensive, and not easily carried (with all its intricacies) around in Ure head.  We do better with cocktail napkins.  Stored in piles up to 10-inches high around our palatial office. Piles and piles of ’em.

The one selected for discussion today is in the “quadrature pile” – which is right next to the nonlinear relations pile and sandwiched in by the Thurow Pile.  So named in honor of economist Lester Thurow’s Zero Sum Game work.  Which is (on a Petri Dish Planet) a constant reminder that all economics are bounded.  Except when they are not.  As in notional (two napkin piles, one of which is) non-realizable.

Thank God we’re back to point now:

This Napkin/Pocket Guide explains the present Fed paradox.

We see in the solid line how Consumer Spending works.  If inflation comes along – meaning shit’s gonna be more expensive – people will tend to “buy now!  Buy, buy, buy!” because delaying will cost money.

The offset between Fed Rate Rises and Consumers Getting It, and spending like mad is what Ure’s cerebral model labels “quadrature” which may be thought of as “waveform offset expressed in degrees, or radians if you’re a GPS engineer.”

We only explain this as quadrature on the Peoplenomics side of the house because the public ain’t that smart (which explains why IQ averages 100).  Instead, we call it “Price Change Awareness Lag.”  (PCAL)

So, on the left side of the napkin, Fed raises rate.  Which kicks prices in the ass and first thing you know you’re into six-figures for a frickin pickup truck.

Notice, pickup sales boom.  Until there’s no inventory because of chip shortages, and when that happens, an aware person could see the Fed would have to level-out at altitude.  In airplane terms, we’re in “cruise climb.”  (Not “expedite climb and maintain flight level” mode.

The RIGHT side of the chart is where implosions take place.  Because going the other direction (Fed Rates Down) consumers eventually notice the “price peaks are in” and they return to “sitting on their wallets, waiting for lower prices” mode,  Done long enough, that’s a Depression.

Of course, as in flying, the Fed can’t jerk the controls too hard – because to do so would result in a crash.

Takeaway:  We’ve been in “cruise climb” as the Fed waits for the economy to cool down.

Meanwhile, China is using the shift of good from USA export bound to internally working on their transition to an upscaling Middle Class economy.  Balance in the Petri dish is always maintained.

One Key Data Point

Even before Retail: Port of Long Beach was first out with TEU data for April, so they get mentioned first this month:

Can you see how the U.S.A. (once great beacon of the free world, yada, yada) is being resource stripped by China?  If you can’t figure it, we ain’t gonna elaborate.  Reality is a lonely hunter, ahem.

Now the Retail #s

The envelope, please?

Turn on the Wordalyzer!

“Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.5
percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2022. Total sales for the February 2023 through April 2023 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year
ago. The February 2023 to March 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from March 2023, and up 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent (±2.5 percent) from April 2022.”

It’s all happy talk for the easily-led, but remember how stupid the average consumer is (chart discussion above).  Look who they voted into office.  With apologies to my dentist, what we have is an example of Deductive Deficit Syndrome (DDS).

Not that Markets were optimistic ahead of the numbers. Finen with us!  Yes, I’ll make money on the overnight short from the close Monday but my current batting average is only .700.  Which is fine if you understand asymmetry and money management and you don’t get greedy…

Beating Up Bitcoin

IF we get a major sell-off in markets, gold, silver, and yes – even Bitcoin – will drop.  Because when the Big Boyz get margin calls, it’s time to “sell it ALL” at fire sale prices.

All of which might seem like an “interesting bet” – the green upslope – but only for a while.

Because the way we figure it, BTC eventually has a BIGGER trend that comes into view overtime:

Ponzi schemes are great while they work.

Ure’s suspicious mind sees great wisdom in understanding what happened to Charles Ponzi when his pyramiding scheme finally failed:

“At the urging of his wife, Ponzi pleaded guilty on November 1, 1920, to a single count before Judge Clarence Hale, who declared before sentencing, “Here was a man with all the duties of seeking large money. He concocted a scheme which, on his counsel’s admission, did defraud men and women. It will not do to have the world understand that such a scheme as that can be carried out … without receiving substantial punishment.” Ponzi was sentenced to five years in federal prison.”

And THAT dear reader is why we suspect that BTC has no “official parent” so far.  No parent, no one to charge.  Pretty well-thought-out, if you ask me.

Need a second opinion?  Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones Says Bitcoin (BTC) has a ‘Real Problem’ in U.S. (coindesk.com).  He didn’t really have to geo-bound it, did he?

God, we’ve been having so much fun thinking, the clock has gotten away from us.  Let’s roll through some…

Newsroom Dust Bunnies

Pulling out the “furniture stories” what do we find?  I mean other than controlled media burying the shit report on the Empire State Manufacturing data collapse which SCREAMS to us the government controls the Financial Press to a large degree.  Sidebar!

Some personal experience: I couldn’t find the story on CNBC yesterday (search results) and I didn’t see it during the first couple of hours.  Maybe during a pee break?  Or sucking up to the who administration? More credibly, Bloomberg covered it in a timely manner.  Leaves the paranoid, delusional, nutjob in the wood asking idiotic questions like “Are some corporate newsrooms talking a “book behind the curtain?”  Sure seems like a disclosure issue, though, doesn’t it?

Cue the Dust Bunnies!

Liars, liars, budget pants on fire: Biden and congressional leaders to meet as McCarthy pushes for faster deal on debt ceiling – The Globe and Mail.  We see traitors among the fools with Schemer’s recent unveiled threats to screw with your social security as government controllers in charge.

Milquetoast for President! Pence Allies Launching Super PAC to Fund Anticipated 2024 Bid. Wake me up when…

Because Politics is ALL about the Money since Everything’s a Business Model! Village People singer threatens to sue Trump to stop performances of ‘Y.M.C.A.,’ ‘Macho Man,’ and other hits.

Of course, something the “business model of politics” does is gets some drugs and shacks up with a hooker, now and then.  Oh, imagine that!  The ugly truth of why the Hunter Biden crime cover-up does matter in the 2024 election | Washington Examiner.  Think it’s all conspiracy?  Well, this may put you over the top: IRS cans investigative team from Hunter Biden probe in move whistleblower claims is ‘clearly retaliatory’ (nypost.com).  Naw, angry Joe and the cast of bubblehead yes-persons? Undue influence?

Meantime, as Rudy Giuliani has been sued for $13 million, here’s Orange Man going after ’em: Trump tears into ‘treacherous charade’ of Russian collusion probe – and calls for Hillary, James Comey and the Democrats to ‘pay a heavy price’ for Durham report that’s sparked ‘public anger’ at a ‘level I have not seen’ (legitgov.org).  Charades?  D.C.?  Tell me it ain’t so…

Durham Report

Where there is smoke, however: Important read here: What Special Counsel John Durham found in his final FBI-Russia report (theweek.com).Which you can read for your self at: Report on Matters Related to Intelligence Activities and Investigations Arising Out of the 2016 Presidential Campaigns (justice.gov).  Executive Summary begins on PDF page 7.  The gist of it was “Our findings and conclusions regarding these and related questions are sobering.”   No kidding.

After reading the report, what we’re left wondering is why are we – as taxpayers – paying a large government retirement to Andrew McCabe?  Well, AFTER Trump left office (Remember, Jeff Sessions had fire McCabe):

“In October 2021, McCabe settled with the Justice Department a wrongful termination suit he had filed in August 2019. As part of the settlement, the government agreed to “rescind and vacate” McCabe’s termination, correct its records “to reflect that Mr. McCabe was employed continuously by the FBI from July 1996 until he retired on March 19, 2018 as the FBI Deputy Director” in “good standing,” restore his pension and other benefits, pay his legal fees and expunge any record of having been fired.”

The record shows McCabe’s behavior was apparently bad/sketchy enough to have been presented to a grand jury. But, the grand jury failed to indict.  Trump leaves office, here comes Slo Buy’ed Em and here’s McCabe on your dime and mine.

I won’t go on in additional depth. Except these Ure Axioms apply:

  • Absolute power corrupts absolutely. (OK, not mine, lol)
  • Votes of Idiots Count the Same (as smart people’s)
  • America has the best government money can (and does) buy
  • We’ve learned from China that Engineers make good government – we need to fire a shitload of lawyers.

Which is why my FiredIn24.com/org website has been started. Reader-contributed, non-partisan, solutions-oriented, white papers are welcome.  Send to liberty@firedin24.com.  We need more project managers and engineers.  Lawyers are leeches – we need problem-solving doers in government.

Instead, we get a bunch of Dewars, if you know what I mean.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

55 thoughts on “Cocktail Napkin Economics: Will Retail Bust?”

  1. A Swig and a Sway , BTC on the way to $34k (shorterm)buyuybuy, but I digress, as Freddy has a pertinent message for the kneelers

    -https://youtu.be/HnCgN4knr0Y

    Russia WILL pay the Price” count on it at the Bank.

    GBR – “He who lives in glass houses, should not, EVER, throw depleted Uranium and or Storm Shadows”..

    Suggestion hear – Recalc Ure Pocylipse time line as the isles bout to go BoomBubbleBoil.

    ..”boody hell thats hotter than Ure eye burning gaseous emissions Cam, you flatulent old bitch”.

    • We need more laws like that. Will it happen? I think it’s bound to! Commercial Drivers licenses are DOT regulated, to get a valid CDL, you really have to go thru hoops. Canadians AND Mexican truck drivers need a CDL from their home country to legally drive in the US. If I was an illegal alien driving a big truck, I’d stay out of Florida too! There’s actual jail time involved. Just so ya know……I’m a retired truck driver and a State licensed CDL instructor. It’s a tough row to hoe getting a CDL nowadays!

      • Look like Greyhound and Trailways are going to be in DEEP doo doo!! Ditto Amtrack and ditto the commuter rail systems in South and Central Florida!!

        Florida Law “Makes it a third-degree felony for anyone who knowingly or who reasonably should know that they are transporting immigrants who entered the country illegally into Florida. Transporting a minor is a second-degree felony”

        What about Florida Officials who provide busses for Illegals in order to take them North to NYC and other places? Certainly THOSE Florida employees KNOW that those getting on the busses are Illegals, that is the entire point isn’t it? They obviously need to Charge EACH Florida State Employee with a Felony who participates in that Illegal Transportation Scheme!!

        Ditto the bus drivers that Florida hired to drive the busses!!

        Unfortunately for Greyhound and Trailways since they are licensed Interstate Carriers it is breaking Federal Law for them to NOT transport anyone from the public who buys a ticket for Common Carriage, NO EXCEPTIONS, Federal Law specifically does NOT make exceptions for barring illegals from the Common Carrier requriement. There is NO Federal Requirements for common carriage companies to verify the citizenship, immigration status, or legal visitor status for anyone that climbs on one of their busses, or other Common Carrier … in fact it is ILLEGAL for them to do so (been court cases on that issue).

        SO is Florida also going to start prosecuting the Commuter Rail people who run the commuter rail systems in Florida and make THEM verify each person that climbs on the trains is Legally in the US (most of the ticketing is just kiosk ticketing for those S. Florida systems … is Florida now going to force each person to buy a ticket at the window with an E-Verify check being done each time on each peson they buy a ticket?)

        What about Florida’s city bus systems which are also licensed as “Common Carriers”?

        WHEN will the city bus systems in Florida start to verify that EVERBODY who climbs on a bus at a stop is LEGALLY in the US?

        Are those city bus systems going to run each person through E-Verify before they can climb on the bus? What about the bus drivers? Felonies if they allow someone on who is illegally in the US? Florida MUST do that if Florida is going to enforce the law equally.

        Ferry companies are in the same boat since they are also licensed as Common Carriers … can you imagine the chaos if everyone climbing on the Staton Island Ferry everyday to go from Staton Island to Manhattan, or back, had to verify their citizenship or legal right to be in the US every time they went aboard the ferry?

        DeSantis and the Florida Legislature are showing that clearly 1/2 of the American Public has an IQ BELOW 100 … with many of those people sitting in Tallahassee a few weeks every year.

  3. “We see in the solid line how Consumer Spending works. If inflation comes along – meaning shit’s gonna be more expensive – people will tend to “buy now! Buy, buy, buy!” because delaying will cost money.”

    that essentially IS what is happening now.. people also see the events happening around us.. even though network news programs are not telling anyone.. ..
    Burrito’s.. had burrito’s yesterday.. the cost was doubled from two years ago..
    then with the story of the radioactive cloud of poisoned dust is floating across Poland..

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-forced-to-use-robots-to-fight-ammo-dump-fire-radiation-and-poisonous-depleted-uranium-dust

    so how many in poland die from radiation sickness cancer etc.. this is only going to escalate..and people even though they are not being informed.. are secretly afraid of what is developing and like the instance your hair stands on end and you realize your not in an area you should be.. they feel the disturbance in the atmosphere of political events..

    • NATO did tell us Putin was going to poison the Euro/Uki farmlands…. and the poisoning is coming to pass. NATO is that good.

      • Not that good, at least not a good as Allies at end of WW2

        https://www.bitchute.com/video/hoKqosYaHSZl/

        Hears a poem from JB in GBR written about that day..
        Dresden 1945

        On the thirteenth of February, forty-five
        We roasted the women and children alive.

        Yet, all the crazed chanting of “gas chamber” lies,
        Can’t hide the grim truth, borne on terror-filled skies.

        God Moloch, now drunk on this surfeit of blood,
        Took the world as his tribute, and saw “it was good,”

        “It is good” that the victims are hated and shamed,
        That ever, hereafter, the truth is defamed.

        By fables of lamp-shades and soap and of shoes,
        Of diamond-regurgitating, escapologist, Jews,

        “It is good” said Lord Moloch, that lies must prevail,
        And all those that doubt it be thrown into jail.

        “It is good,” quoth he, of the insatiable maw,
        That the world is convulsed by perpetual war.

        One may either be complicit in Molochian insanity
        Or learn truth from real history, and stand up for humanity.

  4. Wordslinger:

    So, when ‘flations are topic du jour we discuss ad nauseum what costs more and how it pains us (thanks Fed). Other times we read nummers of the day and wonders: retail sales +0.4% (vs +0.8% expected). Is that inflation adjusted? Me thinks not. So, net inflation, were sales up at all? Fractional …

    The world accourding to Egor sez there are (3) selling seasons in USA: spring in N ‘Merica, back to school and holidays (2 solid months). This is the time of year where my half of the country (N) is shaking off winter and spending with abandon. Because we can. But, not on tires …

    Meanwhile, back at Wall and Broad, the early color is red. Can they keep engineering a turn-a-round at SPX 4100 -or- the all important 4050? We shall watch this together, hey?

    Me? I’m hoping to remedy a laundry room leak by ever so gently tightening a gate valve packing nut. Film at 11.

    Write when you get green,
    Egor

  5. “Of course, something the “business model of politics” does is gets some drugs and shacks up with a hooker, now and then. Oh, imagine that! The ugly truth of why the Hunter Biden crime cover-up does matter in the 2024 election | Washington Examiner. Think it’s all conspiracy? Well, this may put you over the top: IRS cans investigative team from Hunter Biden probe in move whistleblower claims is ‘clearly retaliatory’ (nypost.com). Naw, angry Joe and the cast of bubblehead yes-persons? Undue influence?”

    Hmm.. nothing will ever come of it.. remember all those photos and all their personal websites postings flaunting their deviant and perverted behaviors… and the photos and video’s of deviant acts done by a satanic pedophile group.. doing some of the most horrible crap I have ever seen…and smiling.. nothing ever came of any of that.. and nothing will ever come of any of this.. instead we were all told .. don’t believe it.. it is false.. but the deeper you dipped into a story that you normally would have tossed into a trash container.. all got uglier the deeper it went to the point you have to avert your gaze at it…. the person that released the diary of the presidents daughter.. she paid the price for exposing that and it is all now gone…. the same thing with the gentleman that released the emails of the wwotne.. the wicked witch of the north east.. he is on suicide watch if he comes to the USA and will spend his life in prison.. because he exposed what was really going on..
    what we are seeing is the normal song and dance routine of an upcoming election year.. they will drag these dead horse issues around the stage to gain votes.. say I am the one you need to clear this up.. even though we have already been told that there is a pardon waiting for them.. so why waste the money on this charade that will only be tossed on the table the moment they are voted back into a position of power..

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/biden-setting-stage-for-pardoning-hunter-as-he-frames-potential-doj-charges-as-political-witch-hunt-devine/ar-AA1aRoY7

  6. Financial markets are not aligned with the Fed’s outlook. The market has assigned a ‘minimal probability’ to a further rate hike at the bank’s policy meeting on June 13-14. Interest rate futures contracts indicate the expectation of The Fed policy rate finishing the year in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Which is currently at 5.00 to 5.25 %. Meaning they, the financial markets, expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by the end of the year.
    Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized and insists that inflation is “much, much too high.” [ Target is 2%]
    In a significant divergence from market expectations, top officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted on Monday that the central bank could continue to elevate interest rates, responding to persistent inflation pressures.
    The Fed’s stance starkly contrasts with the market sentiment., but who carries the bigger stick? It is never a good idea to bet against “The Fed”.

  7. “six-figures for a frickin pickup truck”

    Every generation says the same. A new 1978 Silver Anniversary Corvette probably cost as much as an average house. Today an average house is 2-300K.

    “The (1978) base price had risen to $9,351.89, but Chevrolet also offered an Indy 500 Pace Car replica for a whopping $13,653.21.”

    “The 1953 (first) models were Polo White with a red interior and they were priced at $3,498.”

    Over a triple in 25 years.

    The 2003 50th Anniversary, the coupe ($41,680) and convertible ($48,205).

    Another triple.

    A 2023 Corvette starts at $109,295.. It’s on track to triple by 2025.

    We’re in a system.

    • The Chevy web site says it starts at $64,500.00 but the model shown is $76,800.00. Granted it’s Chevy so realistically nobody is actually going to be able to buy a $64,500.00 Vette. It’s doubtful the dealers even have them on the lot.

  8. George, congrats on your latest web site! I do wish to mention one typo that matters “liberty@firedin21.com”. I presume you meant “liberty@firedin24.com”. Since most people are either apathetic or overwhelmed with exigent work already, I have reservations as to how many engineers and project manager types will get involved in fixing such corruption. It’s not an attractive field for most normal people unless they’re totally ego driven. Still it needs to be done, and as so many have said: “People get the government that they deserve”.

  9. I don’t remember if I posted this.., but it did give me a rather sad feeling reading it again.
    In 1972 the total Federal Budget was $229. 2 billion.
    The interest due on our current debt is over $558 billion.
    Just the interest on our debt is over 2.4 times the total budget of 1972.

    • This is why I don’t bother with the Fed’s “inflation calculator.” It treats inflation as a linear progression. As both the line’s pitch and shape have changed radically since the early 1970s, the “inflation calculator” simply can neither project, nor keep up. Today’s dollar is worth about 1/12 the value of a 1966 dollar, and that’s before the inflation we’ve currently been dealt even fully hits the retail channels.

  10. Today marks week 11 since “Iran is 12 days away…” was handed down to us from the Hill.

    “Russia says destroyed US-built Patriot defense system in Ukraine”

    That’s a feather in their cap.

    If true that means NATO no longer has an air defense system. Russia took our air defenses.

    All those battleships really are sitting ducks along with One World Trade Center, formally Freedom Tower.

    • Those Patriot systems are spread out into several discrete units, each located somewhat away from the other units … I seem to recall it is 4 or 5 separate parts in all and the total distance can be up to 1/2 mile between the furthest unit (probably the radar unit) and the other end of the string (the missiles?).

      If you take out ONE part of that string of units the system goes down … but only that one part of the complex then needs to be replaced (assuming flying debris didn’t hit other parts of the complex). The radar unit would be the most vulnerable since it is the one radiating location information as to where it is … but the command unit, the most important unit, with it’s computers etc.and the people manning it, could be 1/2 mile away from the radar unit.

      I imagine that a Patriot System that only had one or two of it’s components destroyed could be back up and running very quickly, say under 24 hours, depending upon how far away the replacement unit(s) for the destroyed one(s) are stored. In a “hot warzone” I imagine the planners have is so that a Patriot Battery could be back up and running in 6 hours or less after being hit by a strike

      • ‘Thing is, Patriot isn’t a very good all-around system, In many circumstances it’s no better than the original Soviet S-200 system, which is why nations like the Israelis employ Iron Dome and several other systems, (I believe including Patriot, although I’ve seen no *.docs explicitly stating it). Where Patriot excels is it is incredibly unlikely that a SSM or ATSM can fly over the Patriot’s service ceiling.

        Now, Patriot, used in concert with other SAM interceptor systems (to fill in its shortcomings) is a very competent anti-air/anti-missile system. AFAIK though, Ukraine has only 1st gen S-200s and the few Patriot batteries we’ve sent them which, although the Patriot is better, both have the same strong and weak points.

        With that said, I don’t believe the Russians hit an active Patriot battery — I believe they destroyed a warehouse in which Patriot systems, and bunches of other high-tech toys were being stored until the Ukrainians could be trained in their use. I saw the missile strike and resulting explosions — The news accompanying the video reported that that one missile erased $1.2bln in American materiel…

  11. For years,I’ve been telling people that Obama is a creation of the CIA.
    Does it still sound crazy?

  12. The most sought-after employee qualification in England in 2023 is an ability to show up every day. 56 per cent of the work force are adamant they will never go back to an office, and the over 50s crowd are simply refusing to get off the golf course.
    Home Secretary Suella Braverman warned the country that it “will forget how to work” if we’re not careful.”
    There is an awful lot of talk about workers and unemployed in the U.K. right now., lots of concern, warnings and Parliamentary grandstanding., but if you look at the official numbers, they have the lowest unemployment rate in all of the E.U., sitting at 3.8%., the lowest since the 70’s. 18 of the 20 job sectors are at record highs.
    – So.., why all the angst !??

    • Both the employed and unemployed are on welfare. Like all hybrid socialist States, the UK has a minimum monthly allowance which, if earned wages don’t cover, the government makes up the difference.

      This kinda, sorta, makes actual work (an exchange of labor for stuff, or for placeholders with which to purchase stuff) unnecessary. When allowed to take root completely, the proles realize that actual work is unnecessary, and you end up with a Mao, murdering 40mln or so peasants, simply to encourage the remainder to go back to the rice paddies before everyone starves (don’t get me wrong. Mao killed many millions more than during his “food massacre.” He just offed this particular 40mln to illustrate to the living, precisely what “from each according to his ability” meant…

  13. Ferrari Says No to EVs: Will Stick to Traditional Combustion Engines.

    Buy Ferrari !

    OK.., just put them on your bucket list to show support.

    • d’Lynn, Ferrari’s are a good investment, probably better than silver or gold, sought after tangible asset. Also think that certain pieces of artwork could also be a good long term investment and you get to enjoy the art. So Durham releases his report that clearly shows the treasonous nature of certain Democrats. Drip, Drip, Drip,,,,When does all this dawn on the normies that they are being ruled by a criminal enterprise. All about the Benjamins $$

      • “Art”, collectible cars, and other rarities are not liquid or fungible. They also incur significant storage costs and risks. If you had to sell in a hurry, you’d likely lose money unless you were able to buy or otherwise acquire under advantageous circumstances.

        • That’s the same thing with gold and silver..if someone isn’t collecting it its worthless.. but food…everyone eats.. depressions historically had food and drink..sex..its the oldest profession on the planet..take
          popcorn.. fresh popped.. outside.. the aroma alone..bratwurst.. smoked on a bun some mustard..
          the wife had a great uncle..he had a big copper kettle.. would set it up at fairs and craft shows.. A bad day was a three thousand dollar day..
          https://youtu.be/HdPCwgNt3fU

  14. I called the DJIA just right this morning., got out as it crossed the minus 250. I also thought the NASDAQ100 would drop to., but it didn’t.., up slightly. Almost placed a bet there., but didn’t..,
    .
    One market guru, billionaire stated this morning that the economy is in much better shape than people realize and doesn’t believe a recession will happen. The news story right below that one is another billionaire market wiz stating the recession will hit within the next 90 days.
    .
    …….., take your pick.

  15. looking out of the box
    May 16, 2023 at 09:35
    … even though we have already been told that there is a pardon waiting for them.. so why waste the money on this charade that will only be tossed on the table the moment they are voted back into a position of power…
    LOOB, you are likely correct on the money being wasted when slime are pardoned. But they shouldn’t get off without at least being inconvenienced enough to have to make them at least to have to make an effort and have to be recorded for history of the who, what, when and where the slime escaped.
    Not hardly what they deserve. Better than nothing and at least they will be on record and if we are lucky, re-located in Leavenworth at Club Fed. As for re-electing scum, that’s going to be decided in the future and there is no crystal ball. Seems like you are probably right but say your prayers anyway if you are so inclined, as will I.

    • The target of the investigations is Creepy Joe. Nobody (outside the “family”) really cares if some doper bangs his SIL or 12yo niece, or possibly even his daddy’s boss’ kid. Hell, they don’t even care if the Creeper banged his daughter or granddaughter, or not. What they care about is whether those at the top of our government are selling out to the Chinese (don’t forget to include McConnell, although a lot of Repubics don’t) through graft and bribery, or simply because of stupidity…

    • I will.. it baffles the shirt out of me… and look what we are offered as choices ..bevis or butthead.. the wicked witch of the northeast slime dog millionaire that only decided to show up for work 30 percent of the time at a job where they only work 26 days a year..
      2 and a half years no one gave two cents over the drunk and pedo perv..now as a new campaign season is coming up everyone wants to spend millions on this dead horse issue.. why weren’t they more concerned as the morons were busy dismantling our country.. why didn’t one of them object when trillions were being printed up to rebuild the infrastructure and nothing was being done.. why didn’t anyone complain if they were so concerned over the billions of dollars of damage to our nations most vulnerable when terrorist actions were being done by blm and antifa.Or the billions of dollars being spent on a country so well know for the depth of corruption there.. like every other dead horse issue this will be dragged around they may Even bring up abortion another dead horse issue that only comes up as a crowd pleaser. its all for show..
      nothing will be done.. no one will act to stop the ones willing to donate billions to buy votes either with gifts vacations jobs , sex or just plain cash and insider stock deals..
      you never see their incomes or benefits to be affected.. its always been let the laboring class pay.. dump the illegals in their neighborhoods.. I went to the post office and the teller doesn’t even speak English..an interpreter had to tell her what I wanted..
      all we see is the dead horse pony show. each one will tell us they are the ones that’s concerned over our well-being all while dumping the cost on each of us while they rake in the benefits

      • It’s all about lining the pockets of the bipartisan gangs and their sponsors, and maintaining control. Everything else is just window dressing. All of you who get worked up in a lather about supporting a billionaire face for high office are just suckers.

        • I’m with you he should not run.. sadly we didn’t have any choices and rarely see any real choices displayed for us to vote for.. but he surprised and impressed me with how much he was able to get done after he was elected.. they spent billions trying to stop it and even more billions trying to get him removed.. even though it was plainly obvious that he was not only egotistical and a narcissistic personality he did a lot for the average citizen he wasn’t a. politician.. (I know it was so he could make coin.. but bringing jobs and working to make America great again.).secured our currency and brought pride back.
          I personally don’t think he should run.the sad thing is we are rarely given much of a choice as to who we see as the one to work for us..
          so if you have Bevis and butt head, Monty the give away guy, the wicked witch of the NE and no show , sloe Joe or a narcissistic billionaire.. its a dam new dart throw..
          A do absolutely nothing congress..
          I actually wouldn’t be shocked if there was a state of emergency claimed and congress sent home or removed from office putting our election system on hold and we have a dictatorship and a police state.. they voted in that scenario in as a COG move during the cold war..
          maybe they should have read some of the deal they refuse to read.

        • You DO know that that billionaire is the first President since Geo. Washington to leave office poorer than when he became da Prez. All things considered, being President cost Mr. Trump nearly $4 billion.

          Y’all have GOT to stop listening to the mainstream propaganda and open your eyes. The Chinese have an Auschwitz waiting for every current inhabitant of CONUS and Canada (that means you, and me, and all of our progeny). They own most of the current Administration, and a significant percentage of both the House and Senate.

          The reason the PTB fear Trump and are trying absolutely everything to keep him out of the White House is he’s likely the only US Citizen with a chance of becoming President in 2024, who can stop this American genocide from happening. He’s also exceedingly likely to be assassinated if he wins the ’24 Election, and I shouldn’t be surprised if he’s completely aware of this, and already has a bevy of “food tasters” lined up.

          Quit cryin’ that you like (or hate) Trump, and understand I speak truth, that Trump is the only one who can stop the insanity, and that Ramaswamy is very likely the only other candidate who could do so — and he has no chance of being elected (although he’d make an awesome VP).

          p.s. Name one actual crime Trump has committed. You can’t do it. No one can. If anyone could, he’d have been behind bars seven years ago…

        • Never said or implied that Trump was guilty of personal criminal activity. Can’t say the same for his opponent. Narcissism does tend to be a universal feature of presidential contenders. Bipartisan machinery operation is consistent with racketeering, but exempts itself from scrutiny, except in rare cases such as recent revelations by Durham.
          And as the imperial presidency and congress along with it’s bureaucracy has grown in size and power, US citizens have slowly been demoted to the status of subjects of tyranny. Back to the bad old days of monarchs and their henchies. The external enemies, real and fabricated, become the excuse for further intrusion of the surveillance state against the citizenry, while the borders are wide open.
          It isn’t Trump or Biden; it is all of ’em, their families, and their in-laws. Getting worked up about supporting partisan politicos is a conceptual error.

        • “Back to the bad old days of monarchs and their henchies. The external enemies, real and fabricated, become the excuse for further intrusion of the surveillance state against the citizenry, while the borders are wide open.”

          This is what the Leftists have been working toward for at least the past 130 years. They have called it “progressivism” but it is actually “regressivism” — back to an era where absolute emperors or kings ruled, their lieutenants were called “Duke” or “Lord” or “Viscount” or whatever, and they ran a closed club, from which they ruled all with impunity, and movement between the two social classes could only be downward (marry a commoner, become common…) The Left has employed various devices and tactics toward this end, many of which (like “newspeak,” where actual truth is found in the opposite direction from what is said) Orwell illustrated in “1984.”

          The Left adopted the Arab adage: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” which, along with its obvious connotation explains the philosophy of using whomever, or whatever group, to further your political ends, with the belief that you can discard or destroy them when your ends have been met. The Democrats have been exploiting others for so long, and to such an extent they’ve failed to recognize that they, themselves are being exploited, first by the Bolsheviks, and now by the Maoist-communists. This is really significant because the ChiComs finally have enough firepower and technology to make “1984” or “THX 1138” a permanent reality for all of Mankind.

          I’m on my current rant because idiots like Biden, McConnell, and Swalwell believe they can use the Chinese to further some political or financial end, and they’re so f*cking stupid, selfish, and terminally narcissistic they don’t realize they’re sentencing their heirs, (and themselves, should they live long enough) literally, to death, by their actions. People like Lenin and Hitler didn’t keep the existing power structure or the “intellectuals” around, after they’d achieved “king-status.” When they became locally-powerful enough that they could do so without repercussion, they had all the politicians and influencers executed first, to ensure no credible opposition to their rule could be mounted.

          Xi will be no different, and along with the technology required to control all of Mankind in perpetuity, can field an army which could stand in company fronts, shoulder-to-shoulder and 10 rows deep, from Nome to Baja. Should they ever decide to invade us, there won’t be any “Red Dawners” hiding in the woods, because the Chinese will simply be able to march over every square inch of ground from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and kill everything in-between.

          Kinda makes a body wonder about the 50,000 or so PLA SpcOps that’ve wandered into the country and disappeared since the Creeper opened the border, now don’t it…?

          Say, did I ever mention my friend in the NSA who was given the choice of working for the government, or breaking rocks for the next 240 years, was “lent” to the Pentagon [when he was in his early 20s] and commissioned a Brevet LtC in the USMC? He was given command of a battallion of Marine nerds and inserted into Baghdad in November of 2001. His specific job was to “shadow” Uday Hussein, 24/7, but he never said (probably couldn’t, even today) what the other 5000 Marines were doing — Probably the same things those ChiCom soldiers are doing today, in the USA…

  16. Come on, George, I know you read comments cause you reply, but at 10 this morning, NMMike told you that you had the wrong address for your new site. We’re all excited about it but you’ve got to correct this error. I think I corrected all my errors in typing.

  17. someone replied to my first tweet. i replied to Elon, Quoted an Eagles song. same one they were playing when we stepped in the elevator together a while back.

    also, joined truth social, to have a look around. im sure, i could get trumps attention. for now, i just listen.

    and yesterday! i recieved 2 more golden keys.

    now i have one golden master key, two other golden keys,

    ~ when you lose yourself, you find the keys to paradise ~

    springs to the mind.

  18. ahhhhhhh shit George! ha ha ha ha!

    after my last thought in writing this came on the radio.

    like G2 said to me last time we talked, ~ lets make music ~

    ha ha ha ha ha.

    bees do love me.

    ha ha ha ha

    especially full queen bees

    ha ha ha

    https://youtu.be/TQML3jIC_9I

    • I’m known for being “easy going and laid-back.” I don’t rile, not even in the middle of a confrontation.

      With that said: I believe if someone sued me for calling them “fat,” I would countersue for defamation, and name the State of New York as a co-defendant. My defense of the suit would be to call attention to the person’s girth and lack of musculature, and my attorney would keep asking the question: “Is this person fat?” until the plaintiff’s attorney ran out of platitudes and PC newspeak, and had to admit his(her) client was indeed, significantly overweight and lacking in muscle mass.

      “Truth” is always a defense in an honest Court of Law.

      I’m not likely to ever call someone fat, but if’fn I did, it would be because they were both morbidly obese and singularly obnoxious, and because they went out of their way to really piss me off…

  20. D’Lynn. remember what i told you when you asked last year?

    “we set july on fire”.

    remember what i told you i saw, every grocery store i went to, that line played from that song, as someome pushed a whole grocery cart full of bottled water passed me.

    if you are still in the Whidbey Island area, you already know temps are hitting records that are normally July here in May. we aint even through May yet.

    what is it going to be like in July if May is already in the 90s? and if July is normally in the 90s and May is normally 65-70?

    like i said, stocking up on fresh water would be a really good idea. suit yourself.

    im currenlty in the mid 50s to 60s here. i imagine we will hit over 100 here.

    there is some data that suggests temptatures hitting over 140 in some areas on the west coast.

    best of luck.

    • Texas has been rainy and cool this spring. The clover is growing like a weed.
      In the middle of the home page is Joe Bastardi’s weekly free weather summary:
      https://www.weatherbell.com/
      If you are doing work that is heavily weather dependent, then their paid subscription is worth the money.

    • Hello, Andy – I do not live anywhere near Widbey Island., I think you have me mixed up with someone else.

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