We have a lot of “moving pieces” going on around here. Market futures point to a big rally in stocks, the cases keep climbing and there’s big doings in the greenhouse today: This is “planting day…”
Disinfect Your Surfaces!
Report out this morning (based on cruise ship follow-up) suggests CV19 can remain active on surfaces for up to 17-days.
I’ve been doing a decontam after getting mail or the odd package showing up. Paranoia pays of! Use 50:1 water to bleach. Sprayer bottles are an easy line of defense…Protect Your Green Zone.
Market Futures Pointing Up
Had someone ask me the other day what I thought about “going short the market.” So serious was the person that I explained that (in my view, and not as investment advice) the WORST possible thing to do is to attempt to trade the trend with money you can’t afford to lose if you DON’T understand the dynamics of market behavior. Put another way, “If you haven’t lost at least $50,000 trading stocks, you are very likely not to have “paid your tuition, yet.”
There’s a venerable old saying: How do you get Good Judgment? By making bad judgements! In the world of investing, bad judgments cost a lot. But, after you loose $50,000 (or more) over a lifetime, you learn (in an ass-beating kind of way) not to do THAT, again.
Sure, when you’re sitting at home, and there’s a few bucks in the bank, sure, the “trades are commission free…” pitch is inviting. I totally get that.
But, you need certainty in bad times and pissing away money – running after professional investors who know where “Running of the shorts” comes from is awefully close to “Taking the payroll to Las Vegas…” Not wise.
I mentioned to my son just yesterday (a teachable moment in the Monday column) that although we were not in the zone, yet, we might have a rally that could last a while.
This morning, with the futures up and with this being a New Moon…yeah, still in the zone. Here’s how our Aggregate Index looked in the early slog:
All kinds of caveats here: Yes, you may think you see a 5-wave down count of what is a larger Wave 3 to me (YMMV!). But, the reason for showing the turn here is that if the market were to rally – as the futures hint (but remember, they’re fickle as hell!) then a rally of 4 to 4-1/2% is possible today.
If you were some kind of “dern fool” and was chasing the decline, and you got aggressive in a 2X levered short-side ETF, then you might have entered short just in time to lose 8-9% today. Or, if you were playing triple levered shorts, you could lose 12 to 13-1/2% in a one day 4 to 4-1/2″ percent move. Smart move? Hardly!
Here’s hoping you didn’t do anything like that. Or, did you just make one of those “tuition payments?”
Note to Volunteer Firefighters and 1st Responders
Son G2 put together a PPE2 (donning and doffing Personal Proective Equipment level 2) video if you haven’t been trained on how to “gear up” for assessing possible COVID cases.,
A lot of smaller (volunteer) departments haven’t trained up everyone, so here’s a link to G2’s video which is unofficial but definitely you’ll pick up some pointers if you want to get decontamination “right.” https://youtu.be/k-tw-7XRV5w
No warranties…but shared on the basis of “We’re all in this war” – like it or not… And Time is of the Essence.
On the Battle Front
We will ease back on the morning forecasts after today because we’re into the “near vertical incidents” rise, now. There’s gotten to be too much of a jump between the daily noon numbers and the morning numbers. So we’ll point in the afternoon (if at all – long discussion there).
As for the Cases lookahead:
300,000 global cases in the next five days? Heavens to Murgatroyd.
On the Global Death Count – still low but when the spread really begins to run in Africa and India, that’s when the big numbers will pop:
If the coffee is kicking-in, you’ll see the death/mortality number is beginning to hold more regularly at the 4.3% area. But, understand a lot of where it goes will depend on the average age of people in a given country. Older countries, like Italy…, Florida… add a heaping side of grim there.
Get Serious About Food: NOW!
If you’re stuck at home – and you’ve passed off my “greeen house adventures” as ravings of an old man who’s overweight (and intending to stay that way) – rethink time. Here’s why:
First: There is a HUGE story about global starvation to come if you read between the lines at InsideClimate News in their article “Locust Swarms, Some 3 Times the Size of New York City, Are Eating Their Way Across Two Continents.”
Second, while it’s a little early for us to be doing the big math, CNBC’s Monday report “East Africa faces dual shock from coronavirus and locust swarms” will add one plus one, for you.
Today and the next week are prime planting days. That is, if you (like the Ancients) connect what goes on in the stars with events on Earth. Specifically, the New Moon was this morning ab out 4:30 AM here in East Texas.
Know much about “Moon Gardening?” Topic’s found under Agricultural Astronomy on Wikipedia and – in times like these – you want to “load the dice in your favor” as many ways as you can; even in the “science” to New or close to Full Moon planting is on the light side…
“Moon gardeners maintain that not only is science on their side, but also that the results are plain to see. According to the theory, plants that are sown in the few days before a full moon become stronger and more productive. The moon gardeners claim that the gravitational force of the full moon affects the level of groundwater in the soil, just as it does the level of the oceans. With more water being drawn up into the soil during a full moon, any newly sown seeds are boosted by the increased hydration. Also, the increase in moonlight between the new moon and full moon (waxing phase) are thought to stimulate leaf growth, when the light decreases between the full moon and new moon (waning phase) the plant’s energy is then thought to be focused on the roots. The phases of the moon do not correspond to the distance of the moon’s orbit around the Earth, and hence are not indicators of the strength of the moon’s gravitational pull. Instead, apogee and perigee of the moon’s orbit are what determines the moon’s distance to the Earth. “
My experience last year in the hydroponics ought to be useful this year, for sure.
Holden the Golden
We have long held a “single gold round” – a “silver one” as well – plus enough 7.62 X 39 rounds to do damage to a small country, while muttering “Gas tank, tracer round, gas tank…” and other defensive thoughts.
Over the years, people have assured me that gold was a terrible thing to even think about investing in. Yet, I notice Gold is up over $106 per ounce today. Gee, maybe we’re not the only ones who realize that “When Government Makes Up Money, Hyperinflation isn’t far behind…” Or “Gold: It’s the new toilet paper…”
While one of our commenter (The Bitcoin Nazi – BTN) will no doubt scold that BTCs were also up – to $6,600 this morning – I’d counter that already, the leading edge of Internet controls is showing up. In the UK there is talk of rationing Internet access to prioritize important sites. Someone didn’t read my 2012 book Broken Web, did they?
Woo-Woo: Living a “Charmed Life…”
You ever notice that I somehow tend to lead a “charmed life?” I mean it is flat-ass amazing how often – if I just follow my instincts or that whisper in my head – how things work out in amazing fashion.
Therein lies a tale of woo-woo that is to me quite revealing. Goes like this:
I love our bug company (Orkin). They’ve done a fine job and the young man who does the traps and spraying is an entertaining and colorful young man.
Last week, though, I decided to put the service on hold for a couple of months. Elaine’s got a birthday coming up next month (basis ’43) and I just had one (basis ’49) so we’re both in our 70’s.
Yet, since we’re in good health (and have both had the pneumonia shots and are very active and are multi-gram C and selenium users) we decided (with medical decision-support) to go ahead and “self-quarantine” from over a week ago.
Trip to town this week was run combat-style with NNBC decontamination when I got home. (No symptoms though seasonal allergies are a lifelong curse, but hardly serious.)
With no one coming out (Defend Your Green Zone,. right?) I needed to plan up for home defense from small bits of Nature who aren’t welcome here.
I ordered a batch of “sticky traps” and a couple of jugs of year-persistence bug juice. Not the commercial grade stuff, but it would hold the line, I reckoned, until we take down the Q-flag.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Sunday morning that little voice in my head said “You haven’t put one of these traps together – why not put one together just to see how well they fold up and such?”
So, I did. Not as good as the Orkin traps, but any port in a quarantine, right? So, there I was, cup of coffee in hand, staring at the trap wondering how the design could be improved until I got bored.
“OK, no point redesigning traps…hmmm…what to do with this one?”
The Little Voice whispered: “ Go put it on the left side of the guest room door…remember the Orkin guy has gotten lots of scorpions there in the warm weather in the past…It’s the RIGHT THING TO DO.”
Been listening to that voice for long enough to just Do and see what happens.
Fast forward to the Monday after-column stop at the guest room to unwind a kidney before going over to the house for breakfast.
“Wait! Why is my new sticky-trap 3-feet away from where I set it?”
Bending down, I looked in amazement. At first, I thought it was a bird wing. A wave of sorrow. But then it moved and the trap moved as well. Revealing a 13″ long juvenile Copperhead!
No idea what he was doing there…but before breakfast let me assure you that there were sticky-traps on either side of all three entrance doors to the shop.
Now, this may seem like a little thing. And Coincidence? Of course! But, that little voice has kept me out of harms way more times than I can count. It’s really quite remarkable.
Call them hunches – a sense of something – instinct – or your inner voice – when you trade markets or in other ways stand apart from the herd and do as much of your own thinking as you can, the voice can be heard.
If you can’t hear it, the “noise level” in your life is too high. Got to quiet the mind and it’s almost a Zen-like thing. The voice doesn’t shout…but it does guide. And when you ignore it, you stand in danger of getting Off the Path.
Since we’ve had a lot of rain,, the snake, stuck to the trap and the foot rug them writhed over to, we placed upside down in a puddle outside the shop. Not sure if you’ll ever need to know this, but a snake can be underwater and live for up to 3-1/2 hours, says the book. 24- seems like long enough…
OK, off to be the Thriller with the Tiller…
Peoplenomics tomorrow. Lots of folks find it’s more than worth $40 a year…price hasn’t changed since what, 2000? Back here on Thursday, barring one of those asteroids passing us by doing an airburst.
My consigliere called Monday to ask: “Got room for a little doom-on-doom?” (I think he was calling from under his desk.)
Write when it’s safe…or the fan stops.