We will, of course, jump into this morning’s GDP report, but first, we need to have a little “come to Jesus” about nuclear war because there are relatively high odds of one this summer.
Tensions between India and Pakistan (Indo-Pak) have perhaps never been higher. Because both sides have nuclear weapons, as our military affairs contributor “warhammer” reminds us, the odds of the WMD’s coming out are rising quickly:
“When the locals start fretting over military escalation between India and Pakistan, the rest of the regions should take heed.
Neither nation joined the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, joining Israel, North Korea, and South Sudan in rejecting that accord.
India and Pakistan lack a rock solid non-aggression treaty with each other, although in 1991 each signed The India-Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement, which generally follows Articles 56 and 15 of the first and second protocols to the Geneva Convention. These articles state, “Works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives.” Still, the use of nukes or attacking the other nation’s populations or military forces is not prohibited, nor is the use of nukes.
So the heat is rising in what is an already hot kitchen. What worries me is that there have been some impressive technological developments made in nuke weapons construction and delivery methods which keep a nuclear military blast low yield with high and tight impact. These developments could potentially lead a nation’s military and civilian leadership to think nuclear war is achievable and winnable with only localized effects. The fatal flaw with thinking a nuclear exchange can be limited is that the history of warfare shows us a strike by one nation leads to counter-strikes by the other. Such tit-for-tat mentality, with nukes now in the mix, could escalate sharply into a very, very dark place.
It’s time for the major nuclear powers (U.S., Russia, China, the U.K. and France, all of which are on the UN Security Council) to put on their big boy trousers and effectively contain this situation before things really start to spiral out of control.”
This, in and of itself should worry you. But even more worrisome is that the 72-year War Cycle is likely in play. Of all the cycles we’ve studied, this one carries the potential for “largest impacts.”
To begin with some history: When America was founded, (specifically 1789), that’s when our clock began to tick. 72-years from that date, the U.S. Civil War broke out. A further 72-years along finds the U.S. at the bottom of a Great Depression.
Taking time off from his ski trip up at Tahoe (where there’s so much snow only secondary lifts were running Wednesday and both I-80 and the pass up to Reno we closed) my consigliere checked-in with an interesting observation about why things didn’t collapse in 2005.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles has long held that some cyclical economic wave forms run in a 3-3-4 sequence. In this case, the 72-year cycle multiplied by one-third more yields a 96-year cycle. This would put the U.S./Global War out in the 2029 region.
His call, however, proposed that we consider a variant of economist Martin Armstrong’s 8.6-year cycle and that we might toss 17.2-years on the tail of the 72-year cycle date – 2005 – and that would place U.S. entry into the Global War about 2022.2, or so.
His original thesis (lawyer, CPA etc. BTW) was 2024 which his work forecast in 1979.
WAIT! I thought a hand went up at the back of the room. “What Global War are you talking about, Ure?”
Oh, the one that starts this summer (at least in cycle theory). And drags out in stages for a half-dozen years.
This morning, a small ray of hope as “Pakistan to release captured Indian pilot in effort to defuse Kashmir conflict.” But,, history is mighty powerful stuff.
I want you to pick a country on the shores of the eastern Med that is Jewish and the target of militant Islamists as a second place that’s “in another coutnry’s nuclear sights.”
Keep in mind the 72-year War Cycle and follow-along.
“On 14 May 1948, the day before the expiration of the British Mandate, David Ben-Gurion, the head of the Jewish Agency, declared “the establishment of a Jewish state in Eretz-Israel, to be known as the State of Israel.”
.That would lead us to expect a massive attack 72-years later which is May of 2020. Except for one minor detail: The actual cycle (over lots of historical examples) is a month shy of 72-years. So we would expect that the outbreak of hostilities would begin against Israel in March or April of 2020. One year shot-clock from now.
Which leads to a logical question about the date that the Indo-Pak line was inked. A question I put to “warhammer“…
“If you refer to the India Pakistan partition, it formally took place at midnight between 14-15 August. Scribes tell us that 20,000–25,000 Muslims in Delhi alone were terminated by Hindus, with somewhere between 1 and 2 million dying during associated violence.
So using that defining moment, and if my math is correct, we’d be looking at early July this summer for the 71.916-year cycle.”
Will it begin non-nuclear and how long is that escalation path? That, unfortunately is what my consigliere and I see as possible, as well.
I won’t pretend this will be highly accurate but the descent into seven years of global war could, paradoxically, be a slow, drawn-out affair, due to how information dynamics will play.
It has been clear for more than a dozen years now, that violent episodic depressions occur when there are high levels of information asymmetry. As information becomes more widely dispersed, in say among 40,000 agents being modeled, the changes in the economy become less sharp, but they do happen, nevertheless and to approximately similar amplitudes.
So, let’s line-up the SloGloWar, which we’ll call it:
- This summer we see the Into-Pak 72-year war cycle kick-off.
- The success of the Pakistanis inflicting heavy losses (asymmetry) on the Hindus, will embolden and harden Islamic states who will see Pakistan’s “success” (if there’s such a thing in hard-foght conventional run-up to nukewar, right?) and will ramp up their plans such that…
- A year later around the March or April of 2020 time-frame, Israel is attacked by a consortium of hard line Islamic regimes. Exactly on point, and just this week, the UK Guardian reported “Javad Zarif’s resignation: blow for nuclear deal and win for Iran’s hardliners — Exit of Iran’s foreign minister means the loss of a major proponent of US-Iran negotiations.” For now, moderates have refused to accept his resignation so political turmoil at the top in Iran.
- We then face an interesting analytical challenge: Will the existential war for Israel’s survival be a “strong open, slow close” or, will it be a “slow-open, short close” campaign? A ground Intifada first?
- Either way, we anticipate that the Israeli existential war will still be in play in 2022.2 when possible US entry into the SloGloWar begins.
- Before that, look for lots of high profile talk and markets in denial. We can imagine the U.S. and Europe on one side, talking with China and Russia. No one will be trusted.
There are two more 72-year numbers to roll around. The first being Taiwan which China wants back (they’re intent on playing repo-man). But pinning a precise 72-year count on Taiwan’s future is problematic due to Mid-points and complexities:
“After the Surrender of Japan on 25 October 1945, the US Navy ferried ROC troops to Taiwan in order to accept the formal surrender of Japanese military forces in Taipei on behalf of the Allied Powers, as part of General Order No. 1 for temporary military occupation. General Rikichi And?, governor-general of Taiwan and commander-in-chief of all Japanese forces on the island, signed the receipt and handed it over to General Chen Yi of the ROC military to complete the official turnover. Chen Yi proclaimed that day to be “Taiwan Retrocession Day” (25 Oct. 1945), but the Allies considered Taiwan and the Penghu Islands to be under military occupation and still under Japanese sovereignty until 1952, when the Treaty of San Francisco took effect.”
Mid-pointing the 1945 event and the 1952 date yields 1948.5, so we logically would anticipate a Chinese move to re-occupy Taiwan while the rest of the world wraps into the Israel existential war.
Which leave only North Korea to be understood in the timing model: With a war declaration June 25, 1950 as a start. This would put a North Korean plunge south in 2022, or about proximate to the breakdown of talks and the lighting up of missiles (and EMP) all around. That’s your (no pun intended) planning “drop dead date.”
Against this potential future, I hope you can understand why some of our reports on the Peoplenomics.com side may seem, at times, almost “esoteric.” But, it’s my plan to evolve subscriber content so that upon seeing this possible future coming, from of the articles can make reasonable preparations for events to come easier.:
- Rugged and reliable power from non-mains sources. EMP survival is part of it.
- Assessment of, and and then relocation away from, major target areas.
- Gardening and survival in a somewhat radioactive world.
- And understanding mass casualties and social responses that would arrive if such a projected future actualizes.
Sorry for the longish and essentially a free Peoplenomics report. But this is where things seem to be heading. Which leaves only the question of when we begin sliding into our Gen2 economic Depression here in America. Markets will nail that down for us.
There is a weak, but evolving chance, that everything could work out well – in which case being short the market would assure loss of personal assets. But, should grim outlooks materialize,, the greatest timing challenge of a lifetime could be calling the instant to exit from the fiat (paper) markets and turn paper into useful goods which might not be available in a radioactive, post-EMP world.
Remember, with EMP in an outlook, that means the instant end of all credit, cryptos, and clearing of stocks, bonds, and so forth.
Is all this a crazy view? Back to “warhammer” notes:
I’d completely forgotten 72 year cycles. I remember 72 as being associated with the Mayans and tied to stock market crashes, which you no doubt have pondered on at length. E.g. the 9/11 attack to the WTC happened in 2001, 72 years after the 1929 stock market crash (war and economics).
I’d honestly not thought of it in terms of war and revolution. Yet interestingly, if one takes 1917 (the year of the Russian Revolution) and moves out 72 years to 1989, the Russian empire in E. Europe collapsed and the wall began to fall. Karma?
So in terms of Korea, that war broke out in 1950, so we only have 3 years to win-over Kim and his generals…
And we have to point out that’s not going very well – see “Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi collapses after negotiations fail.” Back to point…
“We mentioned the partition of India in 1948 – in January of that year Gandhi was assassinated. Doing the math, another peace maker may bite the bullet in December of this year.
Israel was reestablished as a nation on May 14, 1948. 71.916 years later would be early April 2020. Passover (Pesach) begins April 9th, 2020 (Jewish year 5780). Should we expect something there as well? Next year could hold interesting developments in the land of the bible/torah/koran.
In October 1948, the Arab/Israeli war broke out.
On December 28, 1948, Muslim Brotherhood members assassinated Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmud Fahmi Nokrash
Finally, old Ma Earth experiences one degree of axial precession ever 72 years. A hyper dimensional correlation, perhaps?”
Is the “future written in the stars?” While we look to the market to provide early lead-times, we also remember how information asymmetries work.
Is the West in the process of “being snookered?”
The GDP Report
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the “initial” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.
Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the “advance” estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the “second” estimate originally scheduled for February 28th.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter initial estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Initial Estimate” on page 3). Updated estimates for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on March 28, 2019.”
Meanwhile, over in Asia “China February factory activity shrinks to three-year low, export orders worst in a decade.”
After the data, markets crawled back to flat for the open.
AWK (Also Worth Knowing)
The UK Daily Mail offers an interesting “EXCLUSIVE: Gambino mob heir predicts Michael Cohen will get WHACKED in prison because ‘inmates love Trump and hate rats’.”
Over in the WSJ this morning a great run-down in Canada’s evolving crisis at the top in “Political Scandal Worsens for Canada’s Justin Trudeau –Former justice minister says prime minister’s top aides repeatedly pressed her to drop the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.”
And if you’re following our context of Digitalnte’s and Digital Mob Rule be sure not to miss a word of Project Varitas’ “Facebook Insider Leaks Docs; Explains “Deboosting,” “Troll Report,” & Political Targeting in Video Interview.”
Moron the ‘morrow…