I know a number of readers who are expecting the market to be hard down this morning. Boy! Are they in for a disappointment!
On the other hand, a pragmatic market player (of both long and short positions, depending on opportunity) might be proud enough to report his short-trade exit Friday though it was admittedly premature:
It was not a perfect trade. Far from it. In fact, a lousy 1.299% gain. But the trade was only on for less than 24-hours. But have you ever worked out what a hundred (2-trades-a-week) lousy one percent trade strategy compounds to? No calculator? Let me help: 270% a year.
More on Peoplenomics Wednesday. But my point is that there are a lot of trading styles. Size up risk, direction, and get out is mine. Stay in over a weekend? YGTBFKM!
The most dangerous things to an investor are:
- Expecting “the Trend” to continue. Statistically, it won’t.
- Believing in your desire rather than following what the data says.
Anyway, up early and plenty of work to do around here including working on a Peoplenomics report. Trading Style Choices has been interesting to work on.
Especially when perma-Bears and perma-Bulls are both getting hammered.
Toss in the Robinhood Traders who don’t know who gets to “make up the Rules” and soon, you have volatility deluxe. Fun…but we ain’t here for the fun of trading (though it’s like online poker, lol). Nope. We’re here for the money.
America’s Psychological Problem
This whole matter of “belief” as it relates to “trading style choices” is a long and fruitful discussion. Because people’s profits can come almost “on autopilot” if their brains are wired right. Or, they can run “into the Ditch” every time.
A great starting point for anyone trying to troubleshoot their trading results is The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements.
OK, why would Eric Hoffer’s long-ago book be useful? Because it’s all about how you adapt to the CHANGING data input Life is offering.
It’s my (maybe unfounded) belief that truer believers like to glom onto an idea and worry it much like a dog would worry an old shoe. One of the critical realizations with 72-a few weeks off is that believing other than the data costs money.
You know what would make a fascinating study? Investment returns of investors charted against their political beliefs. That is, take Trump supporters (and QAnon believers) and see how adroit they are. Versus people who support The Office – which means whoever’s in it.
Ure’s Big Point? It’s my observation that membership and your inclination to become a True Believer in ANYTHING may have a negative impact on your trading results.
Belief is a Dangerous Thing. The data is usually a safer bet!
Woes d’ Trump
Incredibly, like a trader who just can’t step away from a losing trade, there are still deniers who think somehow Donald Trump will return to be president.
The Press has already convicted him, but they’re using the present time to monetize and re-monetize because True Believers can’t handle the data!
Check out the NY Times front page this morning and EVERY STORY above the digital fold when we looked was a Trump Bash.
Is it because Trump has done something? No, actually, he’s gone. So’s his impeachment defense team, largely. But kicking the man when he’s down has been turned into the liberalista press’s national pastime. “Unsportsmanlike conduct!” is the flag we’re throwing here.
Why? Because TRUMP DERANGEMENT impacted both sides of the political aisle. Eyeballs! Ad money from both sides. Get it? Whee! Let’s make money shearing sheep! Herd ’em into the column-inch and social media chutes.
Meanwhile, the cross-town paper, the NY Post, was more focused on the Reality aspect of news: A sports TV outfit getting itself involved in the Robinhood trading losses...and about the HUGE SNOW coming to NYC today.
Which is interesting as hell, to us: The NY Times bashes on while a huge weather system could dump a couple of feet on Gotham.
Oh well, cynical old newsroom adage is? “News is just the filler we write to put between Ads.” It’s all a business model, just like everything else.
Jobs Data Week
One of the axioms of statistics is that on any particular, single day, the odds of the market going UP or going DOWN are about even.
Which is true, but only as far as it goes.
Taken outside narrow-minded statistical analysis, the market does seem to telegraph the future, at times. Sayings like “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” got to be “old sayings” for a reason.
There’s another – and we think that a rally today (and maybe into tomorrow) could be setting us up for Jobs data later this week. That’s the opposite: “Sell the Rumor, Buy the News.”
ADP comes out Wednesday. Challenger Job Cuts and new unemployment claims Thursday, then federal numbers Friday, if the glasses are clear enough to read with…
Speaking of Weather
Just mentioned heavy snow for Gotham…but another useful bit on how True Believers and Data works will be out this week.
This is data on the Solar Cycle Progression. When the data in early 2020 was suggesting a revisit of the Maunder Minimum, we dutifully reported that. However, as the “turn at the cycle bottom” began to form (and HF radio propagation is a coincident indicator) we also reported this. And several months back buried the change of a Maunder II or new Ice Age, at least until the data fails.
And yet…this is where it’s fascinating… a number of readers are still hooked-up with Maunder II – who can’t get it out of their minds. Gone True Believer because they would like to be right and – gotta say – a heaping dose of Justice on the Crooks would be nice.
But in FACT the DATA says no. So please don’t tell me I’m in denial. Something far more solid has happened:
The DATA has changed. (And jeez, don’t tell me that’s a conspiracy, too…)
This ‘n That
BTC $33,868. DOGE was 0.0393 when we looked earlier. Rob the Hoods?
Show us the Money! Still waiting: GOP senators to meet Biden Monday on coronavirus relief as Dems ready to pass bill without Republican support. Yeah, yeah…when????
Not very Social of ’em: A West Virginia newspaper company is suing Google and Facebook over online ads. Paper says the clickers are hurting the newspaper business. (We heard about a buggy whip consortium that tried the same angle against automakers a hunsky back…lol.)
Here we go again: Like a wife-beater credit exchange, along comes China Launches Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme.
The Daily Riot
We are enthralled watching the pseudo-commie uprisings out west. Especially the goings on in Olympia, Washington where 7 people were arrested as an activist group (carefully scrubbed and called “protesters” by national media – more liberal-biased Mainstream) took over a motor inn.
Useful to see that cops are still defending private property in the State Capitol, although in looney-left Seattle they still namby-pamby.
Further South, a batch of (armed) protesters from Portland crossed the bridge up into Vancouver after organizing online (socialist uprising media). “Deputies block Vancouver medical center from protesters Friday night; no arrests made…”
How long before people figure their emotions are being jerked around by their phones and the “You are the Monetization” of social media becomes obvious to all?
No telling. Computers are fast, but people are slow…
Cleaning up the Server overnight, you-know-who forgot to go through and approve comments first. Because they were temp files… So my apologies if you posted a comment that doesn’t seem to be there.
You can blame me – not too clear-headed at 3 AM doing server work.
By the way, blame doesn’t cost much and is easily shaken-off.
Around the Ranch
Where there’s smoke, there’s George cooking…
Although I hit mostly home runs in the kitchen, last night’s pizza experiment went to hell in a hand basket.
Was trying the “cook the thin crust for a few minutes, then top it.”
Well… got that far without incident, but the topping process took a minute and by the time it was ready to pop back onto the pizza stone, the whole damn thing was welded to the pizza paddle.
So there I am – head in a super-heated oven, 2-pounds of pizza folding over on itself and me trying to push it all off the paddle with a pancake turner. Which dumped cheese and shrimp all over the stone.
Finally – with burning cheese smoke rolling all over the house, I got a pizza pan under the remnants and saved half a pizza. The rest vanished in the conflagration which lasted 15-minutes, or so.
The good news is I now know there’s a reason why the pizza bottom has to be really crisp before topping – or the pizza weld will set up and disaster will follow shortly.
Or, I may stick to pans for building pizzas instead of putting half-baked pies on the paddle to top… sheesh.
Lemme see: Pizza disaster, server glitch…retrograde coming? Dow futures up 220..but maybe I better just watch?
Write when you get rich,