Bitcrash, with a Side of Housing

Amazing, but true:  People who run the mainstream media – previously universal experts on all things crypto – have gone oddly silent as the price of VTCs dropped to less than half of their all-time-highs before entering what we’ve penciled into our charts as a “dead cat bounce…”

Just so we’re clear, I penciled in the past two days of price action – and we’ll see how high the dead cat bounces today and maybe update this tomorrow.  Still, what’s crystal clear is that Bitcoin has taken out the bottom of the support level, and having fallen  through the floor, is now locked in a trend channel decline.

(Continues below)


But just who far is down?

A while back, on our subscriber site – I wrote this dandy little spreadsheet called the Brain Amp (download from the Master Index page if you’re a subscriber – and if we put in the numbers on Bitcoin, here’s where we look to be going:

In the data snip to the right, notice that 868 is now a possible target range – if this is a three wave decline.  Of course, going completely out of business is a possibility, too.

In other words, when the Wave III targets go negative, Bitcoin is out of business.

What we therefore expect now, looking forward, would be a scenario that unfolds something like this.

The coiners are already blathering that because the largest bank in Japan is now planning to open a bitcoin exchange, that this is somehow an important step on the road to becoming a nationally-backed currency somewhere.

There is a huge difference between been an allowed for of exchange as opposed to a backed one.

More likely, we think – and this is based on the data in the charts – is that Bitcoin will fall to extremely low levels.  But, when this happens, it would be an ideal time for some clever central bank to “buy the currency” (which ought to be cheap) and then back it.

This seems logical enough to us, but remember here that no one stepped in back in 1637 to complete the monetization of tulips.

Nevertheless,  when Bitcoins get down into that bottom of the third wave are, then it might be interesting with some money that would otherwise be fed to the slot machines – a competing form of gambling.

Apple Coming Home

Big headline this morning: Apple to Pay $38 Billion in Taxes on Cash Overseas, Build New U.S. Campus

Question is where?  Been hearing rumors Amazon is looking at places like Cincinnati…could it be that we will become a nation of corporate cities?

Amazon owns Seattle, Microsoft owns Bellevue-Redmond, Apple owns Cupertino, Quicken Detroit, financials New York, Oils of Houston, and so on…

Now, About Housing Starts

Just out from Census today:

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.9 percent) above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent (±7.7 percent) below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the December 2016 rate of 1,268,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 2.2 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised November estimate of 1,152,000 and is 7.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the December 2016 rate of 1,096,000.

Now, here’s your Trump Bump part:

An estimated 1,152,300 housing units were completed in 2017. This is 8.7 percent (±3.1%) above the 2016 figure of 1,059,700

Colder winter means fewer starts in December maybe?  Which gets us to……

Still More Climate Change

We continue to be astounded by the cold snap this week.  The temps here have not been this cold (this long, either) since we moved here in 2003.

We are not alone, as they say: Here’s a study that says most of the extreme (which we take to mean stupid) climate predictions are simply bullshit.

BUT – and this is a key thing to remember – bullshit is easy to monetize and I offer Global Warming turned Climate Change, which will flip to Global Cooling if any honest people are left – is a dandy example.

America’s Second Civil War looming as the FedGov is planning a massive “sanctuary sweep” in northern California.

We note with interest that this is all blowback from a long history of both the congress and past presidents “kicking the can down the road.”  Decades of appeasement along the border is now on the verge of turning California into a state of Mexico it seems as we read in Wikipedia:

The result is that, today, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in Los Angeles County, at over 40 percent of the county’s population.

What percentage of the South was Black when the Civil War broke out?

At the outbreak in 1860, 43.1 percent of the lower South was Black slaves and 1.1 percent were free Blacks.

Another year, or two, and SoCal will have this kind of Hispanic population levels, if it’s not there already.

Definitely something to keep an eye one.

Trump Healthy

Yes, but the media’s sick.

I explained the other day how no matter what the media would find something to bitch about with the president checkup report.

Sure as sh*t, here you go – predictions of a presidential heart attack in 3-5 years.

Next, we will hear the media calling the funeral homes…

Moron the ‘morrow…

37 thoughts on “Bitcrash, with a Side of Housing”

  1. Didn’t I read somewhere that San Diego has a higher population of Mexicans than every city in Mexico except Mexico city?

    • Who cares if San Diego or Southern California has Mexicans? You act like Mexican immigrants are a bad thing. I am of Hispanic decent. My grandparents were migrant workers. Never became citizens. My dad was naturalized, college educated and runs a successful business. My mom is from Switzerland illegally, believe it or not. But because she is blonde and has green eyes, nobody ever questioned her status. I look like my dad and have a light brown skin, but it never was a hindrance to me as a kid or an adult now. My sisters and went to great colleges and now have followed in my dad’s footsteps in his software business. I work for Apple.

      But back to the comment about why it seems to be a problem for Mexicans to be the largest ethnic groups in San Diego…American white people have always had prejudices against anyone that wasn’t pure white and of European decent. And even then, it depended on what part of Europe you were from. At the turn of the last century, people were all up in arms about Sicilian WOP”s, or dirty and vulgar potato farmer immigrants that had to put up with signs that said “ Irish need not Apply” etc. Get over your hubris America. We are a nation of all immigrants of all colors. So, I don’t get why you question the population of San Diego? White people are not indigenous to America. The only real natives that belong here in this country were killed off and the survivors were fed diets of alcohol and junk food and now live on scrubby desert reservations. That is so sad.

      • Hahhahahaahhaha! They don’t love in scrubby houses dude. They get huge per-cap checks from the tribal casino’s. The local tribe “Tulaip” get a check for $2500 a month tax free for every tribal member in the family. My buddy that has 4 kids and his wife is tribal makes $15k a month before he ever gets out of bed to go to work.

        The pualip tribal members who own the mulkeshoot casino down south get $18,000 A month per-cap checks. Trust me they ain’t living in dirt houses.

        I hear ya. I’m of the opinion that all souls weigh the same. Racism is dumb. I have many friends that are all different races. I dont think twice about them being anything but human.

        Agree, Trump is not a racest.

      • First, I didn’t reference this as a “problem” – it’s more like a demographic fact.
        Second, my point is that changes in demography do drive political, social, and economic futures.
        Third, Mexico is in many ways more similar to SoCal in values, language, and culture than say Minneapolis.
        What I’m getting to in the larger context is that the US has a problem that could flare into something akin to the Civil War in a few years.
        This MIGHT happen as California runs into things like pension problemns while China is quietly moving resources into Mexico.
        At some point, given mexico’s closer ties with SoCal in many ways, than DC, and with China coming to north America big time, I see it as only a matter of time before China controls first ports in mexico and then along the US west coast.
        And when those are squeezed, that’s how a disruptive China could manipulate the US into something like a civil war over US dominance of states in general and California in particular.
        Make sense?
        BTW my wife is 12.5 or 25% Native America so I’m not unaware of what those smallpox blankets did Since her parents didn’t get her on the tribal rolls, though (Cherokee) she doesn’t get a dime.

      • Who cares?
        Just look at the cost of the illegal immigration problem. All americans should care.
        Please open your eyes.

      • As open minded as you seem, many are not. Very few societies seem to have lasted past a point where their cultures diverge. For whatever reason, a common culture seems to pull together toward common goals, where divergent cultures seems to go stagnant and decline. Do we pull together for common goals or do we battle each other? I for one value personal freedom as one of my core tenents. It seems other cultures value centralized control and direction. Can we just work out such a fundamental difference? Many feel the large influx of foreigners is part of what is causing the cultural divide. We create national laws to try and slow that growth to provide time for people to integrate, and the laws are ignored and the influx continues. You cannot understand at all the bitterness that results?

      • @ not all tribes.

        I was a Tribal Gaming Agent for 7 years. Inspector II for tribal casinos. I inspected slot machine networks and nodes and audited slot machines and tested them for integrity. I also tested secirity systems and regulated the eye in the sky. I went through ton of security training including FBI counterfeit and security measures and had a NSA background check etc.


        Yes not all tribes have casinos.

        I went to the NIGC (National Indian gaming commision) convention at the Hard Rock in Okalhoma a few years back.

        There is a huge effort/push to put a casino on every resurvation. Many tribes that can’t afford to build their own casino have slot machine allotments that they give to tribes that have casinos to make with a split profit so they can stash money to build their own casino.

        To be qualified as a Cherokee tribal member you have to be i think 1/8th. Simple DNA test to start reviving benifits and per-cap checks. Worth a try if Alain is interested. The Cherokee have Deeep pockets. They own the Hard Rock and several other casinos. Not sure how much their per cap checks are. Could be $20k a month. Not to mention a tax exempt card so you never have to pay state sales tax!!!

        I will tell you this much.

        Slot machines at the local casino pay for 98% of the tribes revenue. 98%!!!! They have over 4500 slot machines. Only 2% is made from the hotel, land rental and card games combined.

        Legally, they have to pay 75% back to the customer for every Dollar placed in a slot machine. Most run way higher than that percentage. They make millions of dollars on 2 and 5% gains. But that is the law/tribal compact/treaty amendment.

        Anyway. George wasn’t talking about tribal stuff. I am very very very well versed in tribal gaming.

      • I have gone to the tribal casino’s quite a bit.. Not to gamble but heck if you want a great went to one even had a nine hole golf course. What a wonderful time..

      • When Elaine and I travel, we route through places with Indian Casinos for the same reason. Twin Arrows up in the Flagsataff area, Seven Feathers (or was it Cedars…) in central Oregon, the Grand when we visit the Landry’s up in Oklahioma…fine places and marvelous chow

      • No, it says at the link for December of 2017. Not just the year 2017. There is something like 70,000 odd registered Cherokee. It is one of the largest tribes.

        It all depends on what they as a tribe decide to vote on how to spend it. Some vote for infrastructure and medical clinics, schools and scholarships etc. And some say give me my percentage.

        One of the largest tribal casino is the Mohegan Sun. It is the 3rd largest casino in the world. If I remember right they have 5000 some odd actual tribal members and their per capita checks are like a million and a half. I can’t verify that. But I remember that they were considered the richest tribe in the nation.

      • They out out a December report for Christmas. Pretty normal.

        I don’t really care. After being in casinos for 7 years, every day. I got burned out. Love driving truck much much much better. Lol

      • I don’t know about the Cherokee’s. Like I said I don’t know.what there per cap checks are and I really don’t care. I’m white. As white as ya can get. Lol I’m dutch and Irish. About 50% each. So I don’t qualify.

        I have tons of local tribal friends and I worked in the casino industry for 7 years. I know what the locals get for per cap checks. I’m not from Oklahoma or any of that. Good for them. I hope it all works out for them. Lol

  2. Loved your comment about different corporations owning cities. Let me take that a step further. My wife made a very valid point about states such as California, Illinois, New York, etc. In those states the population centers (Los Angles, New York City, Chicago) basically control their respective state legislatures to the detriment of the majority of the land area in those states rural sections. She suggested that the best solution might be the re-establishment of “city-states” outside of the current state structure. If the ruling class in these cities want to fund every “fairy tale” program in the world, let the population in those cities bear the burden; and not the people in rural areas that are out voted because of population density. Illinois is a prime example. The corrupt politicians in Chicago have burdened the rest Illinois with tremendous debt, while providing no services for the rest of the state in return for their tax dollars. Chicago really hates that Springfield in the capitol.

    Sounds like a return to the old Greek city/state format, but maybe it would pull the teeth of these greedy politicians. If the people receiving the “goodies” had to pay for them, there might not be as many freebies passed out. No they do not get 2 U.S. Senators, etc., this would be strictly for the state government business.

    Just a thought. Tennessee is unique in that it has 5 major population centers spread across the state, which dilutes the city effect in our state legislature.

    Keep the good articles coming.

    Lloyd Snider

    • Corporate cities? Coming soon, George! The Amazon beauty pageant is simply Bezos trolling for the best possible long-term deal for his treasure. While transportation, research, education, recreation and overall quality of life are topics of interest, you can bet your Tukhus that every city that just came out on today’s HQ2 shortlist (20 of them) is willing to make major concessions to the ‘alpha’ corporate conquistador – taxes, property and politics included. I’m reminded of the classic ‘Roller Ball’ film, where the world is ruled by corporate states, not nations. Coincidentally, the 1975 sci-fi movie was set “in the not too distant future” of . . . 2018!

      • Dallas is our analytic pick. Cheap, big base, great air travel rural fallback – direct to Europe…oh yeah.

  3. Jorge (AS WE SAY IN America now)

    Would the solar minimums not predict a mini ice age ?? Anyhoo, awaiting your sagely reflections.

  4. My feeling is that financial institutions are interested in bitcoin exchanges because they can make HUGE fees on the bid ask spread & currency gains with price manipulation.

    Maybe Lloyds of London will back bitcoin. I still think bitcoin is a scam where a few will make million and the majority will lose millions.

    My guess is that it will go down more then go sideways for 6 months as investors lick there wounds. I may buy at $100 if I ever figure out how to buy bitcoin.

    • Yes, Bitcoin is dead, again.

      It corrects 50% about twice a year (for 5 years now), and every time, proclaimed a fraud, manis, bubble, and dead in it’s tracks.

      Bitcoin is backed by the users, collectively much larger than LLoyd’s or any other institution.

      I bought at 1000 USD, sold just enough to pay me ‘back’ my seed money, and now just watch the ‘show’.

      If you buy BTC at 100 USD, I will be buying Microsoft and Apple at 5 dollars.

      For those that continue to turn a blind eye to BTC, I suggest Litecoin.

      For those that continue to question a person’s mental acuity for being in cryptos, I am beginning to question their mental ability to step out of the path of a train.

  5. A suggestion:

    With all the genealogical software available on the internet, and the prior knowledge of which parents, grandparents, etc. posses the genes, it should/would be easy to track down the connections to put your wife on the tribal rolls. I know from watching a colleague do it that it only requires a 1/32 to get in and the advantages it put in place for children and grand children in scholarships, grants and set asides makes it worth investigation.

    as an example, the colleague is now in position to open his own 8A small/disadvantaged consulting business and bid on government contracts. That was the general question in the bullpen: When are you going to open your 8A so we can all come work for you? This was 20 years ago. I asked 8A heck, when are you going to open your cassino so we can make some real money? He replied “neither my wife (devout Church of God) nor your’s (Church of Christ) is going to let either of us near a cassino”. Oh, well, it was a thought.

    • Good point.. For the census.. Can you then claim native American
      I tried to claim American and they told me you can’t. Even though over fifty percent of my family tree started living here many years before our independence.

  6. I always laughed at American business out of the country income can be delayed until brought back. But as a citizen when living out of the country. I must pay that year.

  7. What’s the difference between bitcoin and the dollar bill..
    Pretty much today we do the majority of our banking online. I know one small branch that starts the day with 1500.00 cash the rest is electronic. Paper comes in the form of checks or transferred cash electronically. Bernie proved to everyone that a simple sheet of paper with a number on it was ample enough. Neither the dollar or the bitcoin is backed by anything more than a promise of it being worth anything at all. The dollar just prints more increases the number at will. My guess bitcoin was dreamed up and numbers generated on a pyramid scheme.similar to the federal reserve.
    So my question is really what is the difference.
    In Greece everything was imploding tragedy everywhere nothing had any value..then someone realized a plumber is still a plumber etc. And a farmer can’t sell goods if nothing is worth nothing.
    That’s one way I was able to survive the recession during Reagan’s term..
    I got one job just by filling out an application every day and drinking coffee.. The other workers were jealous because I got longer break

  8. So you think that the American Civil War was started because the level of ‘blacks’ living in the states that revolted reached 41 (or thereabouts) percent of the total population?

    Do you seriously believe that they had much influence in what the political entities (states) decided to do in the matter?

    Most modern historians think/believe that it was the economic result of slavery, and the fears (justified) that because of the ‘powerhouse’ Northern states and their modern industry, that the Southern states with their reliance on agriculture (powered by humans and animals) would become second-class (if they weren’t already) in the conquering of the American continent.

    Ironically it was probably the future prospect of Western states that forced the issue – California and the Oregon territory . . .

    “Freeing the slaves” was a weapon that Lincoln used against the Confederacy – the good wishes of the abolitionists were well-meaning (and blessed), but terrorist John Brown got more ‘press’ . . .

    Human beings by nature wander across ‘the land’, and artificial boundaries are meaningless in the long run.

    • No…you missed the point: Blacks constituted the labor force (much as Hispanics do in Calif, eh?). The North had machines to sell. Blacks needed to be “freed” to drive machine sales. At least in part…

      • Oh dear. The Civil War was begun by the bankers of France and England. When General Blucher defeated Napoleon at Waterloo, England’s Rothschild got inside info re the outcome and obtained control of England’s government. He and his French colleague worried about the US becoming too powerful and decided to divide it.
        I could write all day about this, but let me cut this short with the following. Remember, shortly after Ft. Sumter, a Union warship stopped an English ship and removed two Confederate envoys. Right away, France, that’s right, France, threatened war with the US if the envoys were not returned, etc., etc.
        It was the Russians who saved our bacon then. Even while our Civil War was just beginning, the Rothschild’s were also threatening Russia over its border with Poland. The Tsar was worried abut losing his inferior fleet and so moved a fleet to New York and another to San Francisco.
        Like I said, I could write all day about this, but you get the idea.

      • Not sure about that . . . while the black population tended to move mid-country (Chicago and Detroit), that was the same area that was heavily promoted to the Scandinavians of the mid-1880’s, who were ‘startled’ to find out how ‘god-damned’ cold it got in the area, having been used to the more moderating North Sea. (My ancestors fled to the mouth of the Columbia from there.)

        There was a distinct (and still is) cultural difference between the blacks who lived ‘up north’ and the ones who stayed and share-cropped ‘down south’.

        By the way – a really interesting and unique book is ‘Wisconsin Death Trip’ from the 1970’s? Difficult to describe properly, but the ‘Old Northwest’ is too!

  9. This morning I took a long walk along the East River from about 36th to 9th Street. Absolutely beautiful and peacefully!! I reflected on the architectural changed over the past 50 years, and it came to my mind that in 1945 I thought that Canada, USA, and Mexico should have been ONE country. Who knows what the future will bring? I see many Mexicans on building projects. ;-)

  10. George, I suggest you might read Timeline Collapse & Universal Ascension written by E. M. Nicolay. Chapter 4 explains in detail the unraveling of North America. The book is a probable future of what is ahead for our country. It is not pleasant reading and I am sure you will agree with some of it and other parts you will consider B.S. Please check it out. Sully

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