Amazing, but true:  People who run the mainstream media – previously universal experts on all things crypto – have gone oddly silent as the price of VTCs dropped to less than half of their all-time-highs before entering what we’ve penciled into our charts as a “dead cat bounce…”

Just so we’re clear, I penciled in the past two days of price action – and we’ll see how high the dead cat bounces today and maybe update this tomorrow.  Still, what’s crystal clear is that Bitcoin has taken out the bottom of the support level, and having fallen  through the floor, is now locked in a trend channel decline.

(Continues below)


But just who far is down?

A while back, on our subscriber site – I wrote this dandy little spreadsheet called the Brain Amp (download from the Master Index page if you’re a subscriber – and if we put in the numbers on Bitcoin, here’s where we look to be going:

In the data snip to the right, notice that 868 is now a possible target range – if this is a three wave decline.  Of course, going completely out of business is a possibility, too.

In other words, when the Wave III targets go negative, Bitcoin is out of business.

What we therefore expect now, looking forward, would be a scenario that unfolds something like this.

The coiners are already blathering that because the largest bank in Japan is now planning to open a bitcoin exchange, that this is somehow an important step on the road to becoming a nationally-backed currency somewhere.

There is a huge difference between been an allowed for of exchange as opposed to a backed one.

More likely, we think – and this is based on the data in the charts – is that Bitcoin will fall to extremely low levels.  But, when this happens, it would be an ideal time for some clever central bank to “buy the currency” (which ought to be cheap) and then back it.

This seems logical enough to us, but remember here that no one stepped in back in 1637 to complete the monetization of tulips.

Nevertheless,  when Bitcoins get down into that bottom of the third wave are, then it might be interesting with some money that would otherwise be fed to the slot machines – a competing form of gambling.

Apple Coming Home

Big headline this morning: Apple to Pay $38 Billion in Taxes on Cash Overseas, Build New U.S. Campus

Question is where?  Been hearing rumors Amazon is looking at places like Cincinnati…could it be that we will become a nation of corporate cities?

Amazon owns Seattle, Microsoft owns Bellevue-Redmond, Apple owns Cupertino, Quicken Detroit, financials New York, Oils of Houston, and so on…

Now, About Housing Starts

Just out from Census today:

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.9 percent) above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent (±7.7 percent) below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the December 2016 rate of 1,268,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 2.2 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised November estimate of 1,152,000 and is 7.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the December 2016 rate of 1,096,000.

Now, here’s your Trump Bump part:

An estimated 1,152,300 housing units were completed in 2017. This is 8.7 percent (±3.1%) above the 2016 figure of 1,059,700

Colder winter means fewer starts in December maybe?  Which gets us to……

Still More Climate Change

We continue to be astounded by the cold snap this week.  The temps here have not been this cold (this long, either) since we moved here in 2003.

We are not alone, as they say: Here’s a study that says most of the extreme (which we take to mean stupid) climate predictions are simply bullshit.

BUT – and this is a key thing to remember – bullshit is easy to monetize and I offer Global Warming turned Climate Change, which will flip to Global Cooling if any honest people are left – is a dandy example.

America’s Second Civil War looming as the FedGov is planning a massive “sanctuary sweep” in northern California.

We note with interest that this is all blowback from a long history of both the congress and past presidents “kicking the can down the road.”  Decades of appeasement along the border is now on the verge of turning California into a state of Mexico it seems as we read in Wikipedia:

The result is that, today, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in Los Angeles County, at over 40 percent of the county’s population.

What percentage of the South was Black when the Civil War broke out?

At the outbreak in 1860, 43.1 percent of the lower South was Black slaves and 1.1 percent were free Blacks.

Another year, or two, and SoCal will have this kind of Hispanic population levels, if it’s not there already.

Definitely something to keep an eye one.

Trump Healthy

Yes, but the media’s sick.

I explained the other day how no matter what the media would find something to bitch about with the president checkup report.

Sure as sh*t, here you go – predictions of a presidential heart attack in 3-5 years.

Next, we will hear the media calling the funeral homes…

Moron the ‘morrow…