Bitcoin Over? Options Reveal Fall

A lot of so-called futurists are out on statistical limbs once again, prediction five-digit highs for BTCs and much more.  We also have the usual herd of newsletter writers (some claiming past work with government agencies) making lots of other projections about where markets will head next.

Around here, we tend to sit back and use a computational future approach to such problems.  Not that a computational approach always works, but “rules of thumb” don’t show up in colloquial speech because they are wrong.  There’s usually some truth to them.

So here we have two to consider:  What’s ahead for the market this fall and what’s ahead for Bitcoins.

(continues)

 

With regard to the market, we should be about to resume a large upward move that should last until August 21-24.  This would put us in an ideal position to replay the 1929 market debacle suffered by Herbert Hoover, who we know in present day to have Donald Trump reprising the role in the Great Rhyme of History.

One of the problems with seeing a change of topology – because what we’re talking about here is a computational future – is that the really important data is hard to aggregate.

It’s not unlike the problem of trying to map brain function, over time, in order to fully comprehend the psychological topology of individual thought.

In the case of the brain, we know that at a given age, a person may have an IQ of 100.  But despite this being the dead-center of the Gaussian distribution/Bell Curve of the IQ distribution of the general population (genpop) the problem is that there is much to be learned by digging deeper into how the person’s brain works.

One subject (score: 100) may have done exceptionally well in math and physics, logic, and chemistry, for example.  At the same time, however, they may have sucked at English.

What I observed as a vocational college president, was that despite norming at average, people with “average” numbers in an overall sense were usually quite gifted in another.

A second subject (also score: 100) might have done miserably at math, no idea that f=ma, but may have aced the portions of the test dealing with language, art, English, and they might even remember what iambic pentameter is.  Pity those who think metrical lines are made of blow…but I digress.

The point is we have two exceptional people and yet they come out rather average when measured by the currently inadequate sampling tools.

The stock market is much the same way.  When you know where to look – and do so over time – certain well-formed inferences made be made.

The problem (and we get into this kind of realm on our Peoplenomics.com site now and then) is that it’s damn difficult to find repositories where you can actually download option prices over time.

Oh, sure, you can log into your trading platform and see what a September 2017 2400 put option cost as of the close Monday.

But how does that cost per contract compare with a week ago?  Then last month?  And so forth.

What many of us small-time players end up doing is keeping a spreadsheet that might look like this:

You can see what we’ve got here:  When we keep an eye on the December 2400 S&P put options (*strikes) we see that they hit a low price on June 8th.  They have been rising since. $7,010 to $7,788

This is not trivial:  And 11 percent price change in less than a week always gets our attention while we’re laboriously spending afternoons punching quotes after the close into our various financial grimoires.  (Open sesame!  And the .xls open!)

There are likely to be concurrent indicators of a passing peak.  And this gets us to the BTC pricing.  Using another one of our computational tools from the Peoplenomics side, and eyeballing a first wave up (in Elliott terms) to the current process, we have a possible ending range to consider that looks like this:

This is why I am not in a big hurry to run out and throw money willy-nilly at Bitcoins or any other Crypto.

They should come down and as they do, another wave will become measurable (once a bottom is in) and we will then be able to predict a more accurate long-term high.

Which has what to do with today?

Well, I trust you saw my note Monday that I blew out of my short-side play in the market.  When the Fed makes the rate announcement tomorrow, we will likely use the reaction.

I have to credit long time colleague Rick Ackerman ( http://www.rickackerman.com/lp/RicksPicks/ ) with observing that when the Fed FOMC makes it announcement, the market usually reacts in three stages.

Immediately, there is a small to medium move in the direction things will really go longer-term.

Then, there will be a pullback as the risk-averse rich – having seen the directional signal – will beat down prices and will make their entry some minutes after the FOMC statement.

Finally, the market gets going in the direction it will really go.

Armed with these simple tools, we could go on all morning about how the market could go down if the Fed fails to raise.  Reason?  That would admit that the economic data is not so strong, after all.  On the other side, a raise means all it well, let’s all go pile in and run it up to my target levels in mid to late August.

That will set the stage for the collapse in the fall and that’s likely to come with a fall crisis in confidence that the Special Prosecutor of Donald Trump is likely to deliver.

The bigger rhyme of history, you see, if for Trump to reprise the role of Hoover for the rest of his term.  Instead of the Bonus March Hoover suffered through, we will have the massive (left/democrat gov’t in exile orchestrated) benefits demonstrations this fall in DC.

And then the market will crash, realizing that with zero real growth, the economy will have arrived at the tail-end of the Roaring Twenties replay.

I’m not the only one saying this…and no, it doesn’t take oodles of computational horsepower to figure it out.  Just a little hard work.

And example may be found in what Morningside-Hill capital released earlier this month:  They revealed that 93% of all job “growth” since 2008 has been “made up” by the Labor Department’s CES Birth-Death Model, something we diligently cover when it comes out for precisely this reason.

SpottMoney has a dandy summary of how it lays out over here…and yes, SprottMoney is worth bookmarking which is more than I can say for the political media in this country.

On the other hand, “US recession remote in next 12 months: Deutsche Bank.”  Will this turn into the analog of this famous gaffe:

“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” – Irving Fisher, Leading U.S. Economist, New York Times (Sept. 5, 1929)

So we shall watch, run the numbers and have more for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.

Fire Mueller?

Let me see:  Hiring a bunch of democrat contributors and Hillary/Obama supporters…yeah, that’d be a reason.

We see that a Trump friend floats possibility of firing special counsel in Russian probe…but can he?

And then we have Jeff Sessions today on Russia and Comey – live stream may be here.

I don’t know about you, but seems to me we’re on the verge of renaming Washington D.C. something more appropriate:

Salem.

Democrat Loaded 9th Circuit Bans Ban

I don’t know if you realize this, but 27 of the 43 judges of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals were appointed by democrat presidents.

So it is less than surprising that the Trump Travel ban was turned down and will now head for the US Supreme Court.

In response, His Twitterness offered “Well, as predicted, the 9th Circuit did it again – Ruled against the TRAVEL BAN at such a dangerous time in the history of our country. S.C..”

Meantime, if (God forbid) we get an airliner blown out of the sky by terrorist elements that would be stopped by the proposed ban, will we see the media honestly report “Democrat immigration push kills first planeload?

Hmmm…I sort of doubt it.

Producer Prices Flat

Hand me the press release ju jour, please?

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

Within final demand in May, a 0.3-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.5-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services fell 0.1 percent in May, the first decline since a similar 0.1-percent decrease in May 2016. For the 12 months ended May 2017, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.1 percent.

Final Demand

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent in May following a 0.4-percent advance in April. The May increase can be attributed to the index for final demand trade
services, which moved up 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by
wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing fell 0.1 percent, and the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.5 percent.

Against this backdrop Dow futures are up 26 and NASDAQ futures are up 24-ish.

Turned out to be a good call (for now) to get out of the short.  More on the use of the mid-channel trend line for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.

Our usual fun and frivolity back here Thursday morning, although we may post the FOMC Statement tomorrow with a few remarks…

Off to a tooth cleaning.  As Jumping Jack Flash puts it, “It’s a gas, gas…” has…

Comments

Bitcoin Over? Options Reveal Fall — 46 Comments

  1. A sad confession from the old newsman.

    Back in the 1970’s Slick Watts et al of the Seattle Sonics went to the playoffs.

    As a rock and roll news star I got two tickets courtside at the radio table.

    Went to exactly one game. Gave the rest of the tix away.

    What? Give away courtside tix for the NBA playoffs? In-huh. Great team…but sometimes is it more important to share…and I’m not sure people do that any more. Because just sure as shit the concept of sharing and getting along in America has taken a long lunch.

    • That looks like it fell out of brainamp.xls, lol… final top in aug around 3,150?

      • Haven’t checked that brainamp out yet, might give a look. There will be no final top,at least not for the next 10 years. I wanna say 20 years but I always get out early :-)

  2. Trump should be considered like a suboptimal boss in a business situation. Americans should support him in doing the best job he can, because the alternative is that everybody gets fired, the whole department gets shut down and outsourced to a consulting firm consisting of unelected bankers and military generals who want a world war and a world population of 500 million.

    If Trump is removed from office for any reason, the next president will not see his job as governing a nation of spoiled, opinionated whiners, but rather as a last ditch opportunity for him and his friends to loot the remainder of the country. Refer to Venezuela and the Clinton foundation for examples.

    Going for the dark star award, it means a boot on the face of Americans, forever.

  3. Bread and circuses. Makes no difference if the circus is a sports game or the markets. Neither will make a diffference five years from now.

    What will make a difference is the fact that the USA no longer has a functioning federal government, rule of law, or a viable economic system.

    All the prognosticators that have been correct in their financial and political forecasts (Ron Paul, Paul Craig Roberts, Jim Sinclair etc.) for the last decade plus now say the USA systems have failed beyond the recovery point, and that many Americans will die before the reset occurs.

    Like the doctor who diagnosed the healthy man as ill because he had not seen one in so long, none of you seem to remember what any if the above looks like. If I thought I had no other choice, I would be in denial too.

    The serfs of the medieval manors of the past were the residents of the cities who fled, leaving all property behind in an attempt to survive. They were those who were not entranced by the bread and circuses. That’s the history replicating now, not the 1930’s. The view of a rear view mirror is not beneficial, you need to turn around completely and STUDYwith a telescope.

    That’s how it looks from Ecuador, eight years out, by someone who has nothing vested in seeing the USA as a viable culture because I can’t tolerate seeing the alternative.

  4. here is a way to cut down on chat is charge $1 a word on certain days and less on other days and more on days when you just dont want to hear it , dont know any one doing it like that , any comments , it like the highest bidder like a newspaper with advertisement goes oh well wont hear much from the bryce , who is the high bidder , gosh iam full of it, whether we get to comment or not it would be something to get to see who has deep pockets

    • only thing is mr soroes and his crew would be making george a lot wealthier

      • Bingo, Bryce! Exception though, George has their number. They are scared of him, thus the liberal leftistas posting here and tag teaming George. They don’t like to pay the ‘opposition’ that is smart, they only like to ‘produce the opposition’ who is on their side.

  5. when enough people stop voting for the lesser of to evils and stop believing that we actually have a choice, then maybe this broken system will fall and we with all the intelligence that we as humans can muster will bring us through this 6th great mass extinction that we are in . If not we are outa here!!!!!

  6. In his oft-repeated speech in the Roman Senate, Cicero, in 42 B.C. spoke these words: “A nation can survive its fools and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banners openly. But the traitor moves among those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor – he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and garments, and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation – he works secretly and alone in the night to undermine the pillars of a city – he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resists. A murderer is less to be feared.” How History repeats itself……..

  7. Jonh, this is SO typically you/liberal/democrat nonsense

    You go on for a whole article worth of sports spoew and don’t even give the final score!

    This is proof again how democrats think (or don’t)

    As with the Trump admin, it’ll be the final score that matters.

    And the dems will completely miss it roflol

    • Some of us don’t need ritualized war-substitutes as “entertainment.”

    • Jon – while I agree with some of what you write, what’s up with the personal attack on the generous host of this site with you calling him an old man among other things? Would you want anyone to refer to a member of your family or friends that way?

      Personal insults never won an argument or convinced anyone of anything. Do what you teach your kids to. Act accordingly please.

    • Jon,
      1. Every time you write you show you don’t think.
      2. You’re not old enough or well read enough to have a sense of NBA history.
      3. When NBA championships became a matter who could spend the most money, many of us lost interest.
      4. The hate and anger you spew makes you part of the agar upon which the disease of violence grows. See today’s news.

      Violence is the refuge of the incompetent.

  8. That’s not what Colleen Rowley has said about Mueller and Comey. She was TIME person of the year in 2002 and does not speak favorably of either.

  9. do you have anything to say about Hillary, Bill or fast and furious Obama in the same arena that you speak of Trump?

  10. To be honest, real patriots support neither party, because there isn’t much difference. Both parties want war, both want more taxes (just differ in the setup).

    Both want crappy healthcare that feeds their lobbyists and neither has to use that very same healthcare. Instead, they get the “elite” healthcare offered only to them.

    Both parties care not a whit about the huge deficit we are running – they argue about how high to raise the deficit in the budget – they never try to reduce it.

    Both parties constantly pass legislation – as if we need even more laws on the books than we have now.

    Both parties are abhor changes to the IRS – voting records show.

    Both have their share of idiots (Pelosi/McCain, Waters/Graham, etc) and both happily pass any bill that increases military spending.

    Both parties believe we are in imminent danger of ‘russkies’, yet the US hasn’t ever been invaded and Russia hasn’t got any troops, tanks, missiles or anti-missile systems on our borders.

    Both parties happily engage in meddling in the Syrian civil war, Somalia, Libya and every other cesspool where the milplex can waste more money.

    Both parties take trips all over the world on taxpayer dollars, ostensibly to “fact-find” – and then vote in a way that indicates that don’t have a clue about the country they just visited.

    The corruption is at such an immensely high level, and permeates every single issue and level of the federal government that what government does is becoming less relevant to the people every election.

    At this point, the only people really engaged in this mess are those who actually believe that the democraps and repugnicans actually differ on issues. Go look at congressional voting records – take a good look – and you will see where the term “lip service” originated.

    They put on a show, but the votes are counted and quid-pro-quo done elsewhere. If somebody needs to dissent due to issues back in the district, they make sure things can pass without that vote or with an abstention.

    Can’t help it – national voting has about the same rationale as why a dog licks his danglers – because he can…and it has about the same result.

    • Good day Urban Survival Fellowship,

      Thank you OM2 for the well said TRUTH!

      Hilarious Jon made a fraudian(sic) slip:

      “A Patriot is someone who stands up for evil.”

      He also puts his money where his mouth is – down the RAT HOLE…

      Now I see why Jon is so confused – thanks for clearing that up!

  11. Anyone who gave Hillary money is just not as smart as he thinks he is…

  12. I know no its not worth it encourage Jon, but holy cow what policy has Trump gotten implemented that has your panties in a bunch. What evil? Best I can tell this entire government continues on its do nothing pace. Which isn’t a bad thing in general given governments propensity to just mess things up. Our choices in the presidential election, in my opinion, were two of the worst in our recent history from the main parties. I voted Libertarian because I couldn’t stomach a vote for either of the two main candidates.

    In the emigration fight, I find the courts position tenuous at best, in that Obama campaigned very vocally the ACA was not a tax, yet his admin went before the Supreme court and argued it was a tax and John Roberts had the very suspect decision not for or against the legality, but that elections have consequences siding with the voters vs the law. Well here we are again, recent vote, voters knew Trump wanted further emigration restrictions, yet now somehow the POTUS tweets matter more then what is written in a Executive order. Politicians words have always been meaningless. Their votes and their actions are what should be evaluated and is the only thing courts should be ruling on.

    No matter who is elected we become more regulated, have less privacy, have more economic restrictions and have greater percentages or our earnings transferred to Washington. Nothing changes, but hey we get it, you don’t like Trump. Maybe you just come in daily and say “ditto”, will save you and others some time in scrolling.

    • Hold on there Sober: Tennis shoe bomber, remember? I’m talking terrorists who get on (or put thing on) okabes

      • Interesting web page Sober.

        I’m assuming Sober’s post is tongue-in-cheek. With all the 9/11 truther sites out there the http://www.ae911truth.org/ is probably one of the best due to the immense number of professionals that say the towers should not have fallen the way they did. Given the strong likelihood that this is true some much more powerful agency with the resources to demo at least 3 full size skyscrapers – with people in them and one that wasn’t even touched by a plane – our fears of forces arrayed against us should be concentrated more toward “official” agencies and political PTB. Starting with the Oklahoma City bombing we’ve been stampeded into accepting the loss of most of our freedoms for the benefit of the few.

        The divisiveness that haunts our country and is mirrored in your comments section, George, has been played out by these PTB and is now being taken up by the partisan people as we see with the shootings this morning. With every act, with ever incident everyone needs to search diligently for an answer to the question “cui bono?”

  13. This bothers me, not a big fan of Trump, but he is only 1/3 of the problem, and I feel like the focus on 1/3 lets the other 2/3 run wild…

  14. Hey Jon… if Hillary can still be whining about losing the election, then THE PREIDENT can still be bragging about winning.

  15. Thank you for your comments and thoughts on President Trump and he’s amenasration. I did not vote for him but reading your comments seen the election you have converted me I will absolutely vote for President Trump in 2020 thank jon

  16. WAIT.
    So we got from this http://www.collective-evolution.com/2016/05/06/trump-admits-the-election-is-rigged-id-rather-run-against-crooked-hillary-clinton/ TO THIS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-gop-dems-agree-on-new-sanctions-on-russia/2017/06/12/f9b6202a-4fe5-11e7-b74e-0d2785d3083d_story.html?utm_term=.76a76a90a45c
    ?? Either Trump KNEW that the election was actively being tampered with by “a guy in a basement in new jersey” to make it go a certain way, or the Dems hacked themselves into losing the election.
    Even a statistical guy such as you has to admit that the probabilities of Mr. Trump using the rigged as a “random” excuse to the present reality that there is ACTUAL EVIDENCE of hacking into election systems is too much coincidence here, George.
    Everything is a business model, like you say.
    There is a BIG difference between the opportunistic re-districting, the under the table quid-pro-quos and all the shenanigans that RepubliCorps and DemonCrats do every two years AND Outright buying out a whole election via the nation’s most vindictive enemy.

    Make America Great Again?? by going to bed with the Russians? I am anxiously waiting to see how will that baby look like when it’s fourth birthday rolls along. Congrats, Comrade Krushner.

    • You really must learn to become more discerning.

      Trumps comment on rigged referred to Bernie Sanders and the DWS fixing on the democrat side.

      The further sanctions against Russia are based on everything from election tampering efforts to north korea and Syria relations and so much else.

      Don not see linkage where it can not be demonstrated.

    • The Russian economy is one of the most viable in the world, with a sound currency and consistent economic growth. It’s elected president consistently enjoys an 80%+ approval rate, with a consistent 10% disapproving because he treats America with too much respect.

      Russia was responsible for the outcome (victory) of World War Two, with 80% of all combat involving Russian troops. Russians today know their history and are not afraid of the USA. Why do you demonize them?

  17. I was considering BITCOIN and other crypto currencies as a method to speculate and grow some income. The markets have just gone too high for me to even get in on my paltry reserves! There is another way to provide for my need to become more independent and that is to build an energy generation station using Brown’s gas, (HHO), as a source of fuel to power a small gas engine to drive a 24Vdc heavy duty marine alternator. The output of the alternator will go to the battery bank of my solar power system which will allow me to have AC power 24/7. I can use this energy to power a hydroponic or Aquaponic food growing system. I can build this system over time with off the shelf hardware as money becomes available. I already have the alternator, a $1500 item. There are tons of youtube videos on various aspects of this technology. As much as I wanted to get into the crypto money I have to be realistic and take that other fork in the road!
    Happy Trails!!

  18. Given all the duplicity and “backstabbing” I would have gone with Sodom as the new moniker for our nations capital.

    • Amen George! And sanctimonious blow hards and self righteous so called “GOP” rino who would pay anything to the Clintons shows their true colors. Jon is a shill, and has no real foundation. He is a hater and demagogue. I still say if he ain’t payin he shouldn’t be playin, as much as he does on the free side. Make him pay or limit his diatribe, I say.

    • Jon if Clinton had been elected the deplorables would likely suffer through four years of further inept socialist government expansionism just like we did under Obama.
      A patriot supports the system not those who abuse it.
      Straight up Jon – how can you support the Clinton Foundation and pay for play?

  19. Washington D.C. was originally named Rome, Maryland… which means, Rome did not fall.

    How the world is really run – “ALL MISERY ON EARTH IS A BUSINESS MODEL”

    notes – a country’s minister is a servant of the system not the people. As long as we accept the system we serve the psychopaths.

    BIS is above the law…
    “The Bank For International Settlements sits atop the pyramid of power, followed by the IMF and World Bank. The power and directives flow downward through the big international banks, the multinational corporations, and finally to the governments. As Bernard explains, “All misery on earth is a business model.”

    a 9 min summary – Ronald Bernard, Dutch whistleblower

    “WHISTLEBLOWER: “ALL MISERY ON EARTH IS A BUSINESS MODEL”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pXKrWj9ZuE

    full interview here – view to the end and see previews to parts 3 & 4, yet to come.
    Ronald gets emotional and points the finger as each must do their part.

    “Real Big Power: Revelations by insider Ronald Bernard-part 2
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C-KHt9vi5k

    for those that missed part 1 – beware, you might be shocked as to how the elite live

    “Ronald Bernard, revelations from an insider Part 1 (NL/ENG/FR/FIN/ES)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzoaxTudJks

    • Joanie, thank you. Answered a lot of questions I had that I was working my way to these conclusions but couldn’t quite get there. No wonder why our air, water, and food are poisoned; our jobs are taken away; our country is being dragged into the new world order; vaccinations are killing our children and maiming them and us; our education system is crap; hollywood is a constant erupting cesspool of filth, immorality, violence, porn and violence against women, and culture destroying; the quest for equality which is breaking up the family; the country is flooded with drugs and all manner of people who don’t give a dam about the country; all the chaos on and on and on, and lastly the media, programmed to destroy the population’s spirit via lies and brainwashing. The worst is the sacrifice of children by these 8500 people at the top of the pyramid who worship evil. For sure Schumer, Pelosi, Bush family, Feinstein, McCain, Podesta, Bill and Hillary, etc., are members and so are many of the people we talk about here each and every day. But mostly most of them remain unknown/unseen/untouchable.

  20. While Trump is rhyming with Hoover, is it possible two timelines are folding and rhyming with Trump? All this hate and outright insults and public bashing hasn’t been this bad since Lincoln was elected. Is it possible that the Civil War AND Great Depression timelines have doubled-up and are playing out together, today?

    • That Don, is one of the more depressing thoughts of the week. We award your our Black Star of Death award…

      • When can we start posting meme’s in the comment section? Could start making meme awards…

      • Also…. I know, depressing thought but could we explore this idea further? I thinks it historically interesting if this could pan out that way… and really super super super super crappy.

        Maybe i should invest in an ATP, type in a 777, and throw dart at the board and see where i should go next.

    • Smartest comment in a very long time! Add to that earth changes and you’ve got the universe moving trifecta!

  21. Trump needs to go FDR on steroids by expanding the Court to the size of many grand juries,23.That would negate any future Obamas elected by the hordes.