Seems like everyone, especially the big “snooze papers” are all over the Mueller investigation as the Big Story of the day.
Got news for you: It’s not.
The bigger problem is sorting out what goes on when the present “virtuous cycle” comes grinding to a halt.
OK, what’s a “virtuous cycle” anyway?
If you begin with a steady-state economic model and ceteris paribus (Latin for “all things equal”) add one good-sized bump in the economy, it will kick-off a “virtuous cycle.”
We got a tax-cut. Even the sometimes Trump-hating-sounding NY Times has admitted this week, Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut
Studies consistently find that the 2017 law cut taxes for most Americans. Most of them don’t buy it.”
The reason? Media has lied to you. You can thank the lying lefties again Remember Bernie Sanders initials are BS. Socialism is an epic fail and anyone who can search “soviet” or “Venezuela” ought to be able to figure that out. And if not? STFU.
Back to our economic model. So we kick-in a tax cut. That stimulates the economy. A few more retail jobs. More burger flippers, a little push at housing starts. Even people who didn’t have jobs suddenly find they can go to work driving for Uber or Lyft and when they do, they can make passably good dough, It’s the stuff of both blow-off tops and wave 2 rallies from major market declines. The bloody Christmas Eve…remember that?
Face it: A.G. William Barr and soon, the screaming lefties in congress will soon bail out the over-built, excess capacity of news channels. It will fuel the lying schitz of late-night TV with more fodder for them to tout their smears camouflaged as “humor” and thus “protected speech.” Turning the rule of law to their own advantage is what pseudo-revolutionaries are all about. Look up “discernment.”
Back to point: When the “virtuous cycle” works through the economy – which is deftly used to advantage by the young IPO peddlers – you get a momentary bit of topping. Then the cycle begins to reverse. People know taxes will be going up – which is what democrats in the House promise. “Free healthcare for all” – which means free for lazy people on the dole who won’t pay. But you? As a hard worker you’ll be required to pay out the arse.
As a result, with promises of tax increases to pay for all the “free lunches for the lazy” and to hire more bureaucrats to “administer” those hordes of illegals because we stupidly left the door open, virtuous cycle turns into systemic vicious cycle.
Not right away, but the tide’s set to change.
Housing starts flatten, then turn down. 6,000 retail stores have closed so far this year. In part because the biggest robotics company in the world is Amazon…
What happens in the turn is that at first, you may not notice. In part because of reports like this morning’s just-released retail sales report. It looks like this:
More details if you want ’em:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $514.1 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 3.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2018. Total sales for the January 2019 through March 2019 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2019 to February 2019 percent change was unrevised from down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Retail trade sales were up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2019, and 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.6 percent (±1.4 percent) from March 2018, while sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores were down 9.7 percent (±2.5 percent) from last year.
Sound like everything is good? Well, this report is NOT good because while sales are up 3.5% year-on-year, M2 (March 2018 to March 2019) is up 4.1%. So that sure looks to us like a Soviet-era notion of accounting. Always getting better, eh, comrades? In truth, we ain’t growing and that’s why the borders are open…we need more consumers to pretend and keep the economic charade going. FMTT.
Remember, we’ve been telling you for a long time that the only industry standing between America and default on some of our national debt has been the auto industry. And, what has kept up auto sales rolling is more people leasing. The Big Agenda – which corporate media’s too stupid to mention – is that the financial structure of America is migrating to the “Rent Your Life Model.” Rather than owning your future outright you people have stupidly sucked up the “free money for college” – and then come the student loan collectors.
With no money to save, they rent…needing a car, they lease. Having no bright economic future, they postpone having children and that slows housing. But it’s all covered up by social movements that say – in effect – “Maybe you’re gay so it’s OK…besides too many people in the world.” All the white the peaking process in household net worth is doing what?
Sure looks to us like a rollover is starting. So now, the next move will be federal legalization of drugs. Dumb people down some more. Slick, ain’t it?
Renter’s don’t tell landlords what to do…it’s the other way around.
The Federal Government is in an ever-increasing “power role” because they have become so removed from the people.
Just for example, my son has withdrawn his application to go to work for the federal government as an EMT. He got sick of waiting for slow-motion bureaucrats who have diddled around with his application since last November. He’s on to the Office of the Inspector General with a formal complaint about the horrible treatment an never-described “onboarding process.”.
I cautioned him to be a bit more mellow: Bureaucracies do serve an economic function. When you roll into bad times, they will continue to provide something of a “floor” under falling general employment prospects.
On the other hand, we believe the Wikipedia list of “List of games with concealed rules” should be amended to include US federal government agencies. Because there are so many rules that bureaucrats are able to pick and choose which rules and on which days they feel like enforcing. Turn off the news and get some knowledge instead. Perhaps another reading of Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent.
Look: These ARE the good old days and the media is screwing them up. The unemployment rate is low now, so it’s a great time to talk about economic matters because lots of “Johnny-come-latelies” will show up when the turn becomes obvious.
Around here, we are more concerned with the Big Game and working it to personal advantage. For example, here’s how the current stock market run compared with the run-up and then collapse into the Great Depression.
We get above the recent highs, and we could have some “golden times.” If not? Well, remember America’s benevolent dictator, FDR?
While all your friends are under the influence of the twisted-up media, the basic truths of America are still before us:
- Everything is a business model.
- You’re either moving up or you’re going down.
- Your net worth is either growing or you’re failing.
Cast off the yoke of Madcow. Such people are inciting Digital Mob Rule. And most frightening of all? There are people gullible enough not to appreciate the wisdom of requiring government not convict people when no crime is in evidence. There is no such restraint on yellow journalists.
“Not enough to charge” should end all the allegations. But in today’s media-twisted world, it’s more gas on the fire, thrown by people who think they’re better than all before in history. Sore losers, two-bit socialists, and lazy radicals have always been wrong and guess what?
They’re dead freaking wrong. Again.
Market has swallowed the crack – showing +25 on the Dow for the open. Watch the data…three days weekend for traders, four if you’re in Europe.
Useful to Know:
Pacific shakes: Magnitude 6.1 earthquake -Affected countries: Japan, Philippines, and Taiwan
5 miles from Hualien City, Hualien County, Taiwan · 12:01 AM.
Europe’s first underwater restaurant – serving fish and ships?
Moron the ‘morrow.