Ben’s Prize, Vlad’s Payback, & Musk’s Designs

by

One looking for a path into the uncertain future can’t be sure of just what to make out of today’s roll of headlines.  Some news is hopeful, yet others not so much.

Let’s begin on the positive side.

Ben’s Prize

Former Fed boss Ben Bernanke has shared the Nobel Prize in Economics this year.  Not a real shock.

Essentially, Bernanke has been (we hear) quietly sending in ideas to the Powell Fed, which is scheduled to meet again, shortly, and consider another, further, round of interest rate hikes.

Bernanke is the consummate observer of the Great Depression and has spent years pondering the “what should be done differently?” problem.

Notably, he came up with the LFL *(lower for longer) approach to interest rates.  But not mentioned in the Nobel discussion stories is the role played by Covid-19.  Did it help or did it hurt the outcome?

In an odd way, we figure Covid should have received at least an honorable mention for averting (briefly, anyway) the Second Depression.

You see, when an economy hits the skids and long-term interest rates collapse down to the effective lower bound (ELB), there is a great risk that people will “pull in their spending” because once prices begin to drop (and they did in commodities such as oil, for example) humans project forward. Trend continuance.

They will usually come to the conclusion that holding back is the beneficial personal move.  But this, see, sets up a vicious cycle.  Once prices begin to spiral down, there may be no bottom.

UNLESS: there was a scapegoat.

This is where Covid-19 came in.  Rather than pulling in spending as rates declined in 2019.  See the red clue box below:

I would posit that (like it or not) it is highly coincidental that just as the 30-year constant maturity Treasuries were slamming toward the ELB, along came what I would describe as a “usefully timed” contagion.

The situation (in terms of possible conspiracies) is not unlike analyzing the events of 9/11.  Which massively changed the national mindset which – previous to 9/11 – was really dealing with the collapse of the Internet Bubble which was busy wiping $5-$7-trillion of high-tech stock valuations off the books.

Covid 19, in this admittedly somewhat conspiratorial view, was more of a mental game.  Not only did spending on home offices soar, but in addition there was a change of mood from waiting for lower prices to a “Get it while I’m still alive” that began to work on people’s feelings.

The commonality, in case you missed it was that in both 9/11 and Covid there was a stimulus in the economy:  The masks, home lockdowns, massive run-ups in pharmaceutical stocks, and a whole new division of medicine evolved.  Government gave everyone money (free money, let’s spend it!) and for those who took the jab, there was a “promise not to sue” embedded in the vaxxed under duress consent forms.

People overlook the stimulation from 9/11, too.  Like the overnight hiring of a quarter million as TSA and Homeland Security became an employment sensation.  As did anything having to do with surveillance.

Are we saying it was planned at some super-government-corporate retreat?  Er…not exactly.

We are saying that the ameliorative role of “unexpected events” seems to work-out in unexpected ways.  And in support of continuation of an existing ruling paradigm.

Still, here’s to Bernanke who helped shepherd America’s journey from “Lower for Longer” to “Higher for Shorter” as we stumble toward the next “paradigm supporting left field events.”

In the few days until the Crash Replay is due, the open question is whether once a major Depression is averted, the “recovery War” must still happen.

Pressed ahead by a bunch of crooked neocons, more recently neoliberals (as they change parties for convenience).  Who are doing their damnedest to light up the nukes. I can almost hear them chanting:  “Power to our Paradigm!“

Vlad’s Revenge I

Which gets us to wondering “How well do neolibs play bridge?”

Following a (drone or truck) bombing of a Russian 12-mile bridge in the Crimea this weekend: Deadly missile strikes hit Kyiv as explosions reported in other cities across Ukraine (nepm.org).

Fog of War Politics is being played on the American public.  But no less than the incumbent war-starting party.  As Stop U.S.-Saudi Arabia Arms Sales Over Putin ‘Embrace’: Democrat Bill.  All of which doesn’t make sense since it was their party that has already given – what is it? – $25-billion without any vote to Ukraine?

Meanwhile, as Russia is expanding west toward Moldova, Moldova says Russian missiles crossed its airspace before hitting Ukraine.

There is still an escalation path before the nukes come out.  Those five LNG tankers in gasification mode in Polish waters, for example, could cause a “nuclear-like” explosion.  When those go, the escalation in the eastern European theatre will have run out of non-nuke options.

Musk Moves On

The Twitter acquisition by Elon Musk has started a round of “idea shopping” overseas.  Elon Musk : Twitter’s Acquisition an Accelerant to Creating a Mini-Internet Within a Single App – Wall Street Pit

Mini-internet is what we “grown ups” were calling a “digital ecology” a dozen or more years ago.  Just like Apple and Amazon want to sell goods, music, videos, and what have you, the changes coming with Musk to Twitter may involve (Ure’s predictions) something like a new payment platform (like ApplePay).

And speaking of payment platforms, did you see PayPal apologizes for policy notice saying users could face $2,500 fines for misinformation – MarketWatch?

We have made our Peoplenomics subscriptions available with PayPal for 20-years, but we will be adding a couple of more payment channels due to this gaffe.  Looking at Authorize.net and Stripe.  Reader comments are welcome because Zelle is also a possibility.

One more FinTech note:  See where Facebook Warns 1 Million Users About Usernames, Passwords Stolen via Malicious Apps?  Mark’s not been having a very good month, as we pencil it!

Useful to Know

While chipmakers in Taiwan and South Korea continue to expand as global war prizes, Chinese regulator gives greenlight to fund targeting Korean chipmakers.  Bidding Wars instead of bombing wars?

Well, not so quick: North Korea says recent missile launches were tactical nuke drills – UPI.com.

China has other interests right now, besides Kid NorK:  China Moves To Stamp Out Covid Outbreaks Before Communist Party Congress (ibtimes.com).

Democrat stupidity backing Defund the Police may come home to roost in New York.  As New York GOP gov. candidate Lee Zeldin says crime crisis ‘hits really close’ after shooting outside home.

Keep an eye on use of the word Reparations, too.  GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville bashed for saying Democrats want reparations for ‘people who do the crime’. We’re still shocked at Sloppy Joe’s attempt to would pull the weed smoker vote with his proposed pardons.  But the republicans are stupid, too, playing right into the left’s hands by using the word “reparations.”

Watered Down:  Mars Water Theory: Scientists Warn Astronauts Could Be Deceived by Radar Reflections of Water Ice Deposits from the Red Planet | Nature World News. Awe shucks. There goes easy colonization.

Boldly Gone?  William Shatner says going to space on Blue Origin rocket filled him with ‘overwhelming sadness’  A late DJ I worked with had a useful tag line for his show: “You can’t turn your back on your face.”  No point going to space yet till we can figure out how to live on the ground harmoniously.

Well blow me down dept: CARFAX Warns Used-Car Shoppers to Watch for Signs Flood-Damaged Cars.  Almost 360-thousand cars were damaged by Ian.

Big Money in death and dying:  Mortuary Equipment Market to Reach $1.6 Bn, Globally, by 2031 at 6.5% CAGR: Allied Market Research.  Not planetary die-off numbers, but is there a hint in here?

Markets:  Our spidey-sense to stay in cash and wait for early this week for markets to run up a bit may pay off. Dow futures were almost back to the break-even line with an hour and forty-five minutes to the opening.

Tomorrow the NFIB Small Business report is due along with the PPI report Wednesday.  Next week is options, so it could be a fairly quiet week (plus or minus a nuke, but not until closer to next weekend) so for now?  Relax, chill, have another cup.

De-stress a bit.  For today is World Mental Health Day Marked on Monday.

Write when one of us gets rich,

George@Ure.net

51 thoughts on “Ben’s Prize, Vlad’s Payback, & Musk’s Designs”

  1. Off with PayPals head! Screw that company. The arrogance from these corporations is staggering. I say drop em and never look back. That was a direct threat to the users of PayPal. Until these companies start shutting down, it’s only going to get worse. The ESG crap has to be stopped. PayPal showed its hand and sent a message.

    Received PayPal!

    Good riddance.

  2. Economics …

    “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” ~ Albert Einstein

    Think real hard about that.

  3. Whats the frequency Kenneth?

    You know peruse Scientific American (monthly since 1921) any moores ? What happened – to much viewing time over at fansonly&pornhub?

    RFR Limits bout to be Re-Affirmed at FCC (Title applies to all federal agencies..Federal Clown Commission). SA says “we have no reason to believe 5G is safe” .These freq radiation exposure limits were set back in the early 90’s – Before the intro G and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, wifi.
    WTF, over?
    https://substack.com/redirect/75c62d50-5068-4edc-9a7b-dd0834111f59?r=1kk4yd
    “Tax vampires” – the “sheep roasting mofo’s” standing around with their us govt. issued bureaucratic thumbs up their arses – while the public gets fried – sans those tasty 11 herbs and spices, guess here the reptilians no like any of the 11 on their “game” meat&blood.

    Perhaps we can call in the US Military-Pentagon for help ? They have done sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much to help defend & protect US pop in the last couple of decades…
    Ever wonder why Moderna was given $995 million from BARDA, and $81 million from DARPA As of 2013 ? See epstain&gates early connections moderna.
    Not the least bit surprised by the FACT that Moderna’s patented in 2017 the RaTG13 coronavirus for cancer research..hahahahah.
    RaTG13 is perfect Genetic Match for Sar-CoV-2

    All the funding for covert19 – Pentagon .

    Whos side of the “conflict” you think Pentagon is on ? Not Ures!

  4. “we will be adding a couple of more payment channels”
    Stripe is just as bad, Zelle is monitored for compliance.
    I will consider re-subscribing when I can just send some XRP or LiteCoin, how about some Doge?
    Sorry, but I am keeping my bitcoin and silver.

    • Witness!

      SHIB workz too, as would LTC. Get on da boat G, the crypto boat is soon to set sail for sunny weather and calmingly SECURE “seas”.

      “Leave It!” is what I am constantly telling my (2) jack russels, that seems to apply to the USD, now as it never has before..leave it. Unless of course the lovely E is looking for some new wall paper for new theme room..

    • I heard Dan Bongino talking about his payment plan called AlignPay. Considering he was also involved in starting Rumble, that might be a good alternative if enough places will accept it.

  5. The escalating potential for tactical nuke use, now expanding to the Norks, is subsuming other social and political issues, numbing as well as dumbing ‘we the sheeple’ down to little more than a helpless, cowering crowd of victimized captives who are being constantly drubbed with psychologically disturbing (mis)information(?) for which we can do little about. When you boil it all down, wokeness, race, politics and personal pronouns all become minor pains in the arse when facing the possibility of themonuclear armageddon. Preparing to survive a nuke war, as in the 1950s, requires total social compliance. Think of the civil defense drills school children went thru, ducking under their desks to prepare for a nuke attack when the exercise alarms went off. One might rightly wonder if humanity might too late discover itself once again being shepherded into mass compliance by shadowy master architects toward some yet-to-be-determined ends which justify these nefarious means. I’d love to put all of our current events into a decent AI program and see what HAL 2022 spits out as the most likely socio-political end game to our current events.

    • Martin Armstrong has already done that with his “Socrates” computer program. He did it long ago.

      Over the last 30 years Socrates has been surprisingly accurate, and it’s accuracy only got better once the US Government finally let Armstrong out of jail when his case finally got accepted by the US Supreme Court and he could write more code into his program.

      When the US Supreme Court agreed to look at the Armstrong case he was released from jail within DAYS – HOURS in fact!! … and the US Government /Justice Dept just slinked away as quietly as it could without saying a word.

      (Armstrong was NEVER indicted for anything … they just manipulated the Grand Jury system to keep him locked up for almost 5 years for “non-cooperating” with the Grand Jury – as one Grand Jury would end they would just empanel a new one so they could keep him in jail FOR YEARS with no charges ever being filed. A proposed indictment was NEVER even presented to a Grand Jury during those multiple years of him in custory for a Grand Jury to review and vote on, still he was still jailed for YEARS!!

      A very cautionary tale about how the US Government REALLY WORKS behind the scene when it wanted to shut someone up who was saying things about what the US Government was doing at the time [wrt Russia after the collapse of the USSR] that it doesn’t want the wider world to know about)

      The entire sorry tale of Armstrong’s imprisonment is a very sobering look at how the US Government REALLY works behind the scenes when “IT” (the various alphabet agencies backed up by the Justice Dept) sets out to Break The Law, and it is NOT a pretty picture.

      The US Government blatantly LYING and trying to ruin people who didn’t go along with it’s LIES didn’t start with GWB and the Patriot Act … the US Government has operated that way for many decades now … and that may be why one US President died in Texas once upon a time.

      Anyway enough of my “Rant” about the US Government …

      Armstrong’s “Socrates” computer output has been very very accurate in it’s short and long term projections for many years now. Well worth a look if you are interested in what an entirely “human imput free” analysis says is coming down the road.

    • Actually, it’s more a liability issue. I have never – nor do I want – to have anyones credit card info but our own.

      This is why I am looking at other payment processing routes like Zelle and Venmo, AmazonPay and so forth

      g

      • Venmo. After 20+ years with PayPal, I cancelled them 6 months ago when I got charges from Europe. I called on numerous occasions and they kept saying that I received the product. What product? Our records show you received it. Recieved what? The Product! What is the damned product? Can’t give you specifics, but our research shows you got it.

        Going to file a Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Complaint/Lawsuit against the S.O.B.s. They used to honor the customer. Not any longer, the customer is the Globalists.

      • Parallel Economy is coming on pretty well. That’s the one with Dan Bongino’s involvement. I looked and their rates are competitive.

      • George, if I remember correctly, you still accept personal checks through the mail. Possibly USPS money orders too. The only weak link is the USPS.

  7. I expect half — or more — of those reading this will laugh at it. Ok No problem. Go your way, and enjoy.

    In II Thessalonians Chap 2, it says God will send a Delusion to mankind. (“Great Delusion” is implied.) (Read the chapter for full context.) Madness — inability to recognize the truth.

    It does NOT say WHAT delusion, or even that there is only ONE common delusion. It could easily mean many varied delusions on varied subjects.

    Seems to me, then, that’s just about where we (“Civilization”) are now. “Male Birthing Persons?” “Global Climate Collapse?” Mandating overnight adoption of millions of electric vehicles withOUT first, providing the capacity to charge them?

    “Illusions” and “Delusions” are not that far apart…

    …and so much else, so much else. Crazy. Delusional. Irrational.

    In the vernacular, “It’s not sustainable.”

    • I couldn’t agree with you more. And I think there’s some nefarious shit going on with time. Can’t tell you how many people in my circle and out in the world who’ve been having probs “automatically” knowing what day it is. I heard this from 5 different people in the past week. Also personally it seems like time is speeding up. It will be Monday then before you know it Thurs and the weekend are back. Anybody else???

    • Interesting. I am not at all religious but what greater delusion could there be than the internet, and then the coup-de-gras – “social media”.

      To quote Matthew 7:15-20 (had to google this of course)……..”You Will Know Them by Their Fruits”.

      How can an all-seeing entity really sort the “wheat from the chaff”? Set up a global media interface, sit back and see how people respond. The perfect seduction. Who posts endless selfies, who sells themself to advertising, who sells their body to the voyeurs, who spends hours watching porn?

      Time will tell but the preening, cavorting celebs and narcissists may just have fallen for the perfect lure.

  8. George,

    With respect to PayPal, any other payment options other than PayPal. I am canceling my PayPal account because PayPal is funneling info to the ADL. Please advise which payments you will accept, so that I can set an auto pay for my subscription renewal.

    Regards,
    Lloyd Snider

  10. I have a friend here in my small town that sent out an email to everyone he knows. It was very harsh and near biblical in it’s attack. After years of negative feed-back and name calling – he just cut them all off. He will have nothing to do with them. “Them?” His family and friends.
    He has tried, very hard to get his family to prepare., especially during these past three years, for the up-coming depression., and possible nuclear war. ., and they have labelled him a “crazy old man”. Big., extended family. Half won’t even talk to him anymore.
    They will do nothing to prepare, even for a 30 day., disaster scenario. When he suggests something to them., he receives nothing back but hate mail. He’s done.
    He told them all that he will not help them., nor support them when it happens. They are now all on their own. Don’t come crying and begging to him. ” F – off and go away !”
    This friend of mine was the one who helped me set-up a small group of local barter & trade people., and it has been very good for those of us in the group. [ Our “Barter Buddy Group” as our diesel mechanic’s wife labeled it..] .., and hopefully be good and useful when the depression does hit.
    Has anyone else here been ostracized, bashed and ridiculed for being – “a prepper”? I earned / learned my lesson years ago. I tell no one locally.., I don’t ask and I don’t suggest to anyone I don’t already know. A good security mind-set, too.

    • The problem is…it looks daunting like climbing mount Everest …
      Those that ask..one can.. If you use 5 then buy 6 . Before you know it you have your emergency supply.

    • If you read the comments on prepper websites, you’ll find LOADS of preppers have the same problems with their relatives and friends. My kids think I’m nuts, even though they’re both very bright otherwise. My friends just say nothing when I suggest they stock up. They’re all so brainwashed that only a major hit to their comfortable lives will crack their minds open a bit. So I no longer make prepping suggestions. At this point, I’d like to move elsewhere and give no one my new address (except my kids), lest I later be fingered by them as one who has food, etc.

    • Most of those I care about personally are at least preppers to a minimal degree. One who’s dear to me is a true grasshopper and will never change. She’s done OK in life and avoided black swans – so far. I pray that she continues to, though her way of life involves a ridiculous reliance on luck. Then again, at one time, she could think of a number, toss dice, and get what she wished for. She never monetized that skill and it seems to have drifted away.

  11. George
    You got your $40 just in time!
    I killed my PayPal account yesterday. Two reasons why. One is the idea that they want to control your speech. Two is that I have started having trouble using a good debit card when buying items on the net using PayPal.
    On one purchase PalPal declined my payment on that debit card even though the funds were available. So I switched to paying by the debit/credit option the merchant provided. PayPal noticed that I had a PayPal account and switched me to their pay with PatPal system which then crashed on my card.
    I ended up sending the merchant a money order for the item.
    Many merchants use the PalPal system for All transactions even non PayPal payments involving credit/debit cards. Alternatives are needed for secure transactions!

  13. “A late DJ I worked with had a useful tag line for his show: “You can’t turn your back on your face.”  No point going to space yet till we can figure out how to live on the ground harmoniously.”

    I want to add A huge AMEN… to that line of thought …
    What was it that was said..
    Thow shalt not have any other gods before m we.. do not worship graven images..
    When man can learn to treat others as they want to be treated with the do unto others.. then maybe.. but I doubt that will be seen in my lifetime..

  14. Wife got a scare from our resident ghost, or sprite, not sure what is.
    She was awakened 4am, hearing something and it was a Casper the ghost decoration that was singing “Boo, I’m a friendly ghost that likes Halloween the most”. Scared her and in this morning when she told me ’bout it, the batteries were dead.
    2 days before she had drained her little pond to clean and had left it with couple inches water on bottom, yesterday there was a dead skunk drowned. Tail down and did not stink so moved it to the back for the migrating turkey vultures to clean up.
    Have a good Columbus Day and i’m having our turkey day holiday.
    Good Thanksgiving day Canada. 10/10/2022

  17. We the people are seeing massive chem-trails today like never before.
    Criss-crossing southwestern Ontario. Heads Up

    • Hey at least “they” finally admitted they’ signed contract with WEF, for Digital Travelers ID..

      1st- they claimed story was”fiction”

      2- then they said it was a “conspiracy” theory.

      3- Now have admitted it as a – Fact .

      Who is Canucks real daddy ?

  18. George, your brain is too valuable to lose.

    Semi-retirement, retirement, death?

    No! Your brain can and will be preserved, functioning for eternity, and Urban Survival will continue on, to help us face the unknown perils of the future!

    https://youtu.be/buSR97QeCq8

  19. Should factor in the 2008 bail out of banks that lost big on mortgage backed securities. Billions were given to overseas banks, and don’t forget the Billions given to AIG.
    I am surprised they didn’t give Ben the peace prize then.

  20. What will peeps do when Musk releases the “One World” app? They’ll use it.

    Musk calls it the X App…. or Everything app.

  22. I cancelled my PayPal account today also, in the ‘Reason’ box I put “Go woke, go broke.”

    Will you accept a check mailed to the house for next year’s subscription?

  23. I cancelled my PayPal account today! I’m no longer going to put up with their nonsense! I was a good customer of over twenty years.
    Somehow we have to turn this communist woke system around.
    May this be a start, ring the bell, close the book, put out the candle.

  24. I like paypal except for the way they trick you into opening an account which takes a fraction of a second after clicking the wrong button. To cancel the account takes hours or days even when you jump on it immediately. I’ve heard the same from others falling for the same trick. Obviously they have a lot of fake accounts to bulk up the company worth.
    Wife uses zelle but I don’t. Charley Schwab makes zelle easy to sign up for. What about mailing 1oz silver disks?

  25. The Iran ship RADIN is back to Bandar Abbas. We should know soon if Iran received a secret weapon from China and will act as a proxy for Russia. Could be a catalyst for the crash.

    All food @ $WMT is slowly being depleted in my area. I’ve been loading-up on canned fruit and only have 3 cases so far, the big cans. I speculate we’ll be on rations by January. I was in the International Aisle and a lady who didn’t speak like me was complaining about the lack of rice.

    Pension plans will probably get emergency adjustments after this next market swan dive.

    It’s gonna be a poor Christmas this year, but we can say Christmas. HA!

    • If you’re going shopping for quantity(of food) in $WMT, then get there early on weekdays or Friday evening. That’s when you’re likely to get the best selection. Try to avoid early in the month when all the welfare and some SS(disability) checks arrive.

  27. I cancelled PayPal on Monday, & am waiting for your recommendation to start a replacement.
    These are truly interesting times we’re living in.
    Like Disney, PayPal is getting a ‘woke’ case of financial heartburn. I hope it spreads.

  28. I also cancelled my PayPal account today. I only used it for payments of Peoplenomics and a couple of other US subscriptions. Almost all my payments now are e-transfers directly from my personal bank account to my creditors account. Not sure if this will work for you George but if not, I will get a US money order at my bank and mail to you next due date.

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