Coping: Wujo and Personal Clinical Trials

“George, you know that favorite frying pan of yours, the one you love to do eggs in?  Have you seen it?” Elaine asked at breakfast Wednesday.

Oh-oh.  Not again…

We live in a very modest little manufactured home out at the end of the string (life past cell phone coverage) and there are only the 2 1/2 of us who would know anything about this frying pan:.  Elaine, me, and my retired brother-in-law.  But his quarters are off in another building with its own cooking capabilities, bathroom, and so on.  Sure, he comes over for breakfast most mornings, but except for boiling water and making oatmeal, or toast, or whatever, it’s just me and Elaine in the kitchen.  He doesn’t borrow dishes.

And we do have a few more pans, I suppose, than some people.  But we both get a tremendous amount of enjoyment from cooking, and I like to keep the “chef-wrist” tuned up, but doing perfect flips of two eggs over easy.  Great for hash browns, too.  To do this, you need a particular kind of pan.  One with very gently sloping sides to it. It went missing – on its own.

So there we were…wondering if the local ghosts (“the visitors”) had made off with another one of our goodies.

So we took the kitchen apart, including the oven, in which our cast iron gear lives so we don’t have to worry about mixing it with the Cuisinart hard-alloy, which would likely be ruined by just being around the cast iron.

Anyway, we both looked for about 15-minutes.  Then passed it off as simply gone.

And hour later Elaine exclaimed “Found it!”

Turned out that it was under the pizza pan, also in the oven.  We also season and dry it there, yada yah.

The problem is that it was there earlier…at least I didn’t see it when I looked, as the pizza pan was right on the rack…not above it as it was when Elaine showed me.

All of which was pretty damn interesting…It points out how Wujo-like events can often be solved:  You are simply tricked by perception and expectation.

Or, did it just return from the “wherever” and decide to pop up under a pizza pan where neither of us would put it, at least while in our right minds.  Deep rabbit hole there.

Still, the experience underscored for me that when people experience Wujo, they may simply be experiencing absolutely “normal” things going on that live below the perception threshold.

And then there are stories like this one from reader Georgann:

Hi there George,

A few weekends ago both my husband and I had something weird happen. I woke up in the early wee hours, with extreme time disorientation. I thought it might be weekday. And in my mind I was trying to find something to reorient myself, then I remember that I hadn’t met a friend for coffee yet, which was scheduled for Sunday morning.

Later that morning my husband wakes me up thinking it Monday and I needed to get up for work. He was surprised that it wasn’t. And you know, the whole day was off about 3 hours for both of us. It was very unsettling.

Would this fit as a WuJo?

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Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (2)

Housing, Food, and Communications are in our sights this morning. In Saturday’s subscriber report, I put forth some market expectations for 2014 and it seems only right to look at the translation of that forecast into possible cost impacts in specific areas of life. While the (false) glee of a budget agreement may seem like a grand thing, it is merely an effort to postpone the inevitable conclusion which must occur when demand for service – paid for by taxes – runs into the hard reality of limited taxing power as the number and wages of working humans declines. As the old demographer said, “If you want to know the future, start with birth rates…” But first, we’ll have coffee, check out some headlines, and see what our Trading Model says about the period immediately ahead.

Pick a War–Any War

“Dot connecting class is now in session.  We have a whole string of dots, but do follow along and you can connect them as we go…”

In an article back on Monday, November 25th, I had a crazy dream described in Winds of Noumenon” that related to Harriers on carriers, sitting on the deck.  I thought it was a goofy, although potentially revealing dream at the time about what’s ahead. 

Two days later the news stories begins to increase around the word Harrier.  As in “Harrier by Jonathan Glancey, review” and lots of others.

Heck, the word pops up all over the place.  Shows up as a video game (Space Harrier for Nintendo 3DS) and it’s the name of an oil exploration ship the Sea Harrier which is on the move.

But while things like this slowly come up in the language surveys from our www.nostracodeus.com project, we also can’t seem to put down the idea that maybe there’s a war out there on its way.  Mid to late 2014.

OK: Where?   As of this morning we have two leading candidates.

Our first nominee for Harriers to be used (thus fill some more headlines) would be in the Central African Republic which (since trumped-up Syria didn’t work out so well) is coming in as the stealth replacement war to keep the West solvent based on war spending.

Two French soldiers, for example, has been killed in fighting there, as detailed in this BBC report.  And, since your tax dollars have made it possible for us to wage war everywhere, the US has ordered support for the efforts to disarm people in the Central African Republic, (CAR)  as well. 

As soon as that was done, US SecDef Chuck Hagel put out the world to start moving war materiel to the region.

OK…why?  Well, a check of the CIA World Factbook tells us (among other things and to borrow from their work (paid for with tax money, so WTF)…

Timber and diamonds account for most export earnings, followed by cotton. Important constraints to economic development include the CAR’s landlocked position, a poor transportation system, a largely unskilled work force, and a legacy of misdirected macroeconomic policies. Factional fighting between the government and its opponents remains a drag on economic revitalization. Since 2009 the IMF has worked closely with the government to institute reforms that have resulted in some improvement in budget transparency, but other problems remain. The government’s additional spending in the run-up to the election in 2011 worsened CAR’s fiscal situation. Distribution of income is extraordinarily unequal. Grants from France and the international community can only partially meet humanitarian needs. In 2012 the World Bank approved $125 million in funding for transport infrastructure and regional trade, focused on the route between CAR’s capital and the port of Douala in Cameroon. After a two year lag in donor support, the IMF’s first review of CAR’s extended credit facility for 2012-15 praised improvements in revenue collection but warned of weak management of spending.

We could also toss in that China is looking to expand its influence and ties with Africa and (look surprised here) this is likely a new front in my (hypothesized but real-looking nevertheless) Manufacturer’s Resource Wars with even more at stake than Afghanistan.  Cheap labor and resources plus diamonds.

Oh, and you did catch the involvement of the IMF which – if you’re read John Perkin’s The Secret History of the American Empire: The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World, ought to have caught your eye.  Wars for banks and industries, eh?

Well, seems to me that Harriers would be well-suited to a country which may not have a lot of long airstrips.  So maybe this is where things point?

The other war-in-the-making is the one between Japan (or what’s left of it post Fukushima) and China.  This one, says our resident war gamer, could be a dandy:

“George,

The headline sure is an attention grabber! “China-Japan Could Lead To WW III.

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Coping: Business Model or Exploitation

I’m just fond as hell of the phrase “Everything’s a Business Model.”  But now, I may be forced to a revision of that outlook due to a conversation I had with a buddy of mine (Howard) last night which has really given me “cause to pause” for a bit and rethink the whole EBM concept.

I don’t think Howard would mind me sharing this.  He called and we got to talking about this, that, and some of the very high-end hi-fi gear he’s selling on eBay. 

Turns out, one eBay lately, there’s a new kind of exploit which has been developed by unethical buyers.  They buy something, take delivery, and then swap out a bunch of parts.  In electronics it might be tubes, highly prized original knobs, and things like that. 

Then, they turn around and exploit the seller by demanding a return – and they send a stripped out piece of junk back!

Doesn’t happen on every sale, of course.  But it has led to sellers ((including my son, who sells things once in a while) putting in long, involved disclaimers about “no returns” and “buyer agrees to no return under any condition” and that kind of thing.

You see the point?  Yes, I’m sure eBay has had issues with unethical sellers, but now they also seem to have occasional unethical buyers.  And might that, I wonder, over time imperil the eBay business model?  Hmmm…

And  we got on to talking about the book he’s writing and how economics of ebooks push out.  He’s been writing a cookbook (it’s really good since he is nothing short of a phenomenal cook) and he was thinking about releasing it as an Amazon ebook.

One thing led to another and I explained how ebooks, while fun, and not a major source of income like they once could be.  The reason?  Everyone and his mother/brother/son who has delusions of becoming a famous writer is cranking out ebooks on Amazon, hand over fist.

Some of the ebooks there, self-published and in the 99-cents to $3-dollar price range are really good.  But, the other side of it is that there’s a lot of trash and slop out there as well.  Collections of crap copy-pasted from Wikipedia and then sold.  That takes either some gumption but more fitting is the word exploit.  

You might remember that I’ve written a couple of ebooks myself, such as “How to Live on $10,000 a Year, Or Less…”  When that ebook first came out, before Amazon self-publishing came along it was sold directly on the internet as a .pdf delivered by email, it was $9.95 and it sold maybe 1,500 copies over a 5-year period.

That was then.  Along came the digital thieves and the book value has gone pretty near to zero now, although I think it’s still full of good information.

But it has been something of a turkey on Amazon, due to the huge increase in the number of ebooks for Kindle.

Then there’s a rise of writing “schools” which are now teaching people how to crank out 99-cent to $3.99 ebooks all day long, and flood the market with a huge number of titles instead of flooding the market with highest quality.  The theory is that if you write enough you will get some sales.

In other words, Amazon has been part of the very “commoditization of writing” that mirros what has gone wrong in many other parts of life.  Everything’s a commodity, now.

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Monday At The Rock Pile

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in continuing to buy corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

Boy, am I ever a motivator, or what?

The good news, such as it is, holds that we are likely to see a 25% decline in the Dow and other major indices when people figure out how bad the economy really is. 

If you didn’t catch it, the UK Telegraph article “Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer” is a real eye-opener.

What people don’t remember is that the Japanese Nikkei 225 index (roughly the Japanese equivalent of our Dow Jones average) was up nearing 40,000 points (yen) back in 1989. Overnight, the Nikkei had a huge rally (2.29%) but even so, it’s been stuck in this area (closing  at 15,650) seemingly forever.

Wait!  You mean the Japanese market was 2 1/2 times higher 25-years ago?

Well, yeah, duh.  Welcome to Depression economics.

That’s evident when you look at the “max timeline” chart of the ^N225 over here at Yahoo Finance, dude.  It also shows the problem that Europe is running into and where the US is going, as well.  The only thing we’re missing is the killer radiation levels, but give it time. 

Crude Lingo Alert: [Remember SBD – silent but deadly – farts?  Fukushima’s like that…]

One of our readers asked this morning if I could explain the robust growth in GDP.  Well, one way to look at it is “channel stuffing” by manufacturers, who are desperate to hit year-end sales targets so they are pushing crap into the warehouses of retailers.  No target hit?  No bonus…

The retailers, in turn, because of the collapsing cost of money (read: zero percent interest rates effectively) can lock in goods cheap today (they believe)  on the theory that prices will come zooming upward as soon as the “recovery” kicks in. 

“Rut Roh” Scooby. Lil’ tardy on that one…

This is all quite circular, don’t you see?  Channel-stuffing makes jobs which makes demand, which creates jobs, which creates spending, which creates channel “sell-through” which is why Ures truly expects some hellacious deals to be had on everything under the Sun in January. Someone in retail is going to wake the ‘f up in January and start to dump.

Check this out:  A chart (through November) of the total business inventories…got it?

Now, let’s look at inventories in 2009 because that was a pretty good indicator of how these things work.  Back then we had…um….call it $1.33 trillion in business inventories.

What would the equivalent level be today?  It would be about $1.447 trillion, using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator over here.  But, as you can see, inventories are at about $1.68 trillion (plus or minus a can of soup) today, which means inventory levels are 16% higher, on an inflation-adjusted basis, in the last four 1/2 years.

That’s a mighty big swing.

So:  Here’s what I’m speculating will happen:

a.  The Fed will hint at increasing rates when they meet in late January.

b.  People in retailing will look at their inventories (up 16% on a real basis, remember?) and scream “Holy shit!  How are we going to afford all this inventory if we actually have to pay interest on it?”  Free money was such a nice ride….

c.  Inventory dumping will begin…

d.  Which means profits will fall…

e.  Which means stocks will fall….(*because earnings will fall)

f.  Which means the Fed is now locked into permanent money printing in order to keep the whole financial system from going KA-BLOOEY!  We become like the Japanese!

g.  Which will set off another round of job cuts…

h.  Which will set off a further decline in real estate prices…  (Also due in part to the prospect of those real estate-binging venture groups facing the prospect of actually paying someone back with interest, which is why housing prices are about to level off and maybe head face down…Banks being under pressure to unload their REO (read estate owned) too…

i.  As soon as this dynamic is realized, then what’s left of commercial real estate falls on its butt (again) since with home office automation, what’s the point of paying big bucks for an office?  Everyone has Skpe, Broadband, and Starbucks!  Toss in online banking and who needs a building?  Ever use Quickbooks Online?  Your accounting department can be in Bozeman.

I could, of course go on, but it would make a mighty messy and depressing report.  So I decided to keep it really light and uplifting this morning (and this is the best I could come up with?):

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in buying corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

If you’re not saving money hand over fist, you’re screwed. 

And even if you are saving money, you’re screwed anyway, because when all this begins to roll (it’s the Debtberg, remember?  90 percent of the Debtberg is invisible…) you’re going to be subject to a “wealth tax” which will roll globally in order for the PowersThatScrewedThingsUp (PTSTU) will take one last turn at the global citizens financial gang-bang before the global version of the French Revolution comes around.

I expect America, unlike other countries (think Iceland) will call BS on what’s coming, but we could roll over Cyprus and Greece-like.  Depends on the marketing.  But if Healthcare is a template, there is no alternative to becoming a Prepper.

The realities were Friday (and still are, Monday) that:

  1. You can’t have more people getting free money than paying taxes
  2. You need REAL jobs in order to pay taxes.  Flipping burgers is counted as a “manufacturing job now” notes a similarly cynical reader.
  3. You don’t have jobs because of automation and robotics and 10-an-hour foreigners.
  4. Until robotics are taxed on parity with humans, and the lie of job-wrecking imports is dispensed with,  this is a one way ride to the financial slaughterhouse.

You see why I love getting up and writing on Monday?  Things are just so crisp and clear…

See Dr. Marc Faber’s comments along the same line, too: “World Center Bankers are going to Bankrupt the World.”  Yeah, we noticed…

In spite of reality, the markets looked flat this morning because the 7% unemployment figure is all based on free money which is unsustainable and as some point the markets will think that part through, too.  I sense one more blow off to the upside and new all time highs.

Then duck.

More after this…

Obamacare:  The latest nightmares

…is the report that “New affordable Care US health plans will exclude top hospitals.”

I don’t know as I’d go so far as to write something like “Shock Claim: Obama worse than a communist.” 

The Russian people brought the Soviet Empire down.  But here in ‘Merica, the People can’t bring down the Lobbyist Empire…far most entrenched. Which is why the Russian peeps had a leg up on us…

Making the rounds on discussion boards are posts like this one which claims “Obamacare seeks to segregate patients/doctors by ethnic races…”  Is this “giving the customers what they want” or something more sinister?  I look forward to my liberal pals to arguing both sides of this one…

Madness on Bordering

Over on the “Tea Party Command Center” site, we see “Texas defies feds: We shut the border down ourselves, said Lt. gov…

NK: The Urge to Purge

Morning seems like a fine time to cover this:  A purge in the ranks of the North Koreans as the kid at the helm has kicked out the party old-line power broker (uncle) who was not playing nicey nice with the People’s resources

Clearly Kim Jong Un “gets it” – namely you have to feed the People…and feed them an occasional scapegoat to hold hunger at bay.  And Uncle will do, nicely.  Shows that no one is above the “law”.

Good management.  But what about Auntie?  Remember, she (and her hubby) defected to the West, had plastic surgery and are in hiding…

Just a guess:  These North Korean leader/people have some serious unresolved family problems!  Poster family for dysfunctional.

Global Warming Joke

The joke’s on Al. It was the Sun, all along.,…d’oh! 

Here’s the latest just out this morning from the Solar Weather Prediction Center which has been counting the extreme lack of sunspots in what I’m selling as Ure’s Minimum…

Australia is getting snow in their summer.

Record snowfalls around Texas from the storm this weekend.  None here, thanks, but colder’n hell.

Cold snap in Oregon.

Point for Gore: Record cold temperature in the Antarctic is being disputed.

I run hot and cold on this climate thing…(wink-wink, budge-nudge)

Laughable Headlines & Stories Department:

Congress Readies a Year-End Dash” flashes the Wall St. Journal.  That’s as believable as Ures truly joining the Bolshoi.

Blah, blah blah, Kardashian, blah,blah, yada, yada…

“US Tech companies call for more controls on surveillance.”  Yes!

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Coping: With a Rare Book Review

It’s not often that I find very much useful in life,  maybe because my life is so damn complicated. 

There’s this here website, there’s the odd client project (slow due to the “recovery” that’s going on, lol), developing a server for a “black project” with a friend/client, building the new room onto house, finishing restoration of a tube-type ham radio for my son, and planning for the kitchen rebuild ahead.  All while keeping up the accounting/taxes and staying current on flying.  Then there’s the www.nostracodeus.com project and fine-tuning our Trading Model for Peoplenomics subscribers…Say…did I mention the four books I’m writing?

Like I said: Complicated

But I’m not the only person in this pickle – since you’re either there or remember it from your own recent experience,

So this morning I can’t say enough good things about Gary Keller’s book The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results which will run you $17 bucks at Amazon. Or, if you have a Kindle, it will set you back about $15 bucks here: The ONE Thing.

If you’re already struggling to find time (but still somehow have $264(!!)  laying around, there’s the The One Thing in 30 Minutes – The Expert Guide to Gary Keller and Jay Papasan’s Critically Acclaimed Book.

Now the reason for the recommendation:  It’ll help you focus on doing what needs doing.

In a way, it’s similar in thinking to William Oncken’s classic book Managing Management Time which is still available.  Oncken’s been writing about time management almost forever, seems.  My friend Gaye of www.backdoorsurvival.com and I were talking bout his work (and others in time management) back in the early to mid 1970’s.

Two points from these:

First, a couple of readers have asked “How do you do all the stuff you say you do?”   Well, here are some hints:

  1. Build “walls” in your life.  Allocate only so much time to Task A and when it’s done (as much as it ever will be in allotted time).  Move on to Task B.
  2. Make a list to keep yourself focused. A short list of a dozen “outcomes” you’re building.
  3. Streamline and find every efficiency you can in order to get things done.  The idea is to get things done, not to reinvent the wheel at every turn.

Here’s what I did Sunday, just for discussion:

a.  Tested a new breakfast (details in the “Around he Ranch” part in a minute.

b.  Solve a half-dozen damn difficult computer issues around the house: All kinds of new security updates, anti-virus and the firewalls, defrags, file checking, speed tuning, network rearranging.

c.  Made spaghetti.

d.  Searched for the  easiest way to build a LAMP server… and found the Linux version of XAMMP

e.

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Just out for Subscribers: Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (1)

While it’s true that I have made more money on the short side of the market than the long side, it’s also true that I’m pretty much an agnostic. That’s because the market is going to move as it will. So anyone who undertakes to manage their own money is well advised to understand hard reality. Toward this, a few classic books exist, such as William Gann’s “Truth of the Stock Tape.” This morning’s report will be nice, short, and to the point as we consider what may be out there in 2014.

Numbers for Breakfast and a Side of Sausage

A nice cold, snowy, wintry morning deserves something nice and hot for breakfast.  So along with the usual two-cups worth of reading material today we’ll serve up some hot economic data and a side of sausage.

Our first serving is the Jobs Almighty number which lives more formally in the Employment Situation Report just released by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.

As always, we look at the Labor Participation Rate which is 63% this morning, and in a Christmas-sized miracle, it’s up 2-10th’s of one percent.

Dow futures have spikes to 86 up on the Dow.  Crack may be this good, but the jobs number is legal.

“OK, Ure, how’d that come about?”

Heck if I know.  Looks to me like the economy might really be getting some traction.  Free money has to go somewhere.  And how many quantitative whatchamacallits are we at now?

Even the CES Birth/Death Model which estimates jobs into existence decreased the happy talk by 15,000 jobs.

As to whether people who had extended benefits run out this month (many more in coming months) are in some kind of statistical limbo won’t be known for a few months.

Meantime, we have the monthly PhD’s flipping burger’s number which is the underemployed and underutilized people which show up in the U-6 data.  This improved a good bit down to 13.2% from 13.8% last month.

Magic of seasonal employment, methinks.  Pardon me if I hold the Ho-Ho until March.

Or, at least hold it until you read about disappearing incomes in the Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is also out this morning:

Personal income decreased $10.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $23.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $32.7 billion, or 0.3 percent.  In September, personal income increased $64.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $62.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $23.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

More people working – for less money!  Exactly the kind of thing to expect in a lifestyle collapsing economy, like I’ve been saying.

The punch line part is the Personal Savings Rate reference; always a knee-slapper:

“Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $604.9 billion in October, compared with $660.7 billion in September.

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Coping: A Chat With Prepperclaus

“Ho, ho, ho, George, of COURSE I’d be pleased to do an interview with you!”

I’d spied a fat old man, mid 70’s by the look of him,  wandering around our ranch/outpost out by the carport in the wilds of East Texas.  He was staring down the barrel of my 9 mm Ruger and acting like it was an every day occurrence..

Upon hearing my command “Halt!  Raise your hands slowly…” he announced an unlikely claim:

I am the REAL Prepperclaus and you need to interview me.

“Are you shittin me?  I’ve got a SWAT Team on speed dial, mister.  So just keep your hands where I can see them and explain yourself.  This is Texas and this is private posted land.  Only a damn idiot would be here uninvited and you look close enough to an idiot for me…”

“OK, OK, I know you’re a little tense, George, but please allow me to explain.

In your column yesterday you hinted that Santa might be a marketing figure and it was a very catchy article.  Not viral, but it did  spawn a lot of talk among the elves, it did.

But you know, Georgie, most of us Joy and Mirth spreaders really are joyous at this time of year.  And your reader,  The Wizard,  was right…you did miss reporting on some of the really evil spirits that put on shows at this time of year…like Black Peter, also known as Zwarte Piet.  Heard of him?

Georgie?  Who was this guy?

“How’d you know about that?  That was in a secured email file…are you connected with the NSA?  We pay our taxes, we inform people, and we keep a crack legal team at the ready…”

“Ho, ho, ho, that’s a good one!  Crack and legal right next to one another…oh, you’re the funny writer…Ho….ho….ho….

No, you silly skeptic, I AM the original Prepperclaus and I’m here to spread the joy of preparation and preparedness.

You were assigned to me by the Head Office because of your Claus clauses, and because the Claus cause was paused by your lack of prepping advice which people need to get from breaking news.”

“Huh?”  I lowered the Ruger, but just slightly.  Whoever this guy was, he was old, didn’t look threatening, and this was getting to be an interesting conversation..

“Your column yesterday reported many things, but of all the headlines you didn’t focus enough on the arrival of bad weather.

And what did you do about it?”

“You mean in the column?”

“Yes, yes…what did you DO about it…”

“Well, I mentioned that Global Warming was having it’s ass kicked.  And I figured when ass-high snow drifts start  stranding people, they’d figure out that this was the time to break out the winter storm gear and get ready for the crap to hit the fan…power outages are something people should ALWAYS be prepared for…”

“But, what did YOU DO after you wrote the column yesterday?”

“Well, I got out my landline phone…it’s an AT&T 210 Corded Phone, Black, 1 Handset and for under $10 bucks on Amazon…”

“And then?”

“I took one of those phones from our supplies over to the house, one to my office, checked the flashlights, and wrote down the local power outage reporting number.  Then I taped 3-by-5 cards with the phone number to each of the phones.

Panama dug out the backup 10,000 BTU ventless propane heating unit for the house and hauled it over.  I checked the small propane tank for Panama’s apartment and the backup catalytic heater for there…

Then Elaine and I baked bread (sourdough French) in the bread machine…”

“And did you ever mention that you’d purchased a bread machine?  Specifically, according to our records a…hmmm…ah… an Oster CKSTBRTW20 2-Pound Expressbake Breadmaker, White for sixty-three dollars?”

“Well, no, I guess I hadn’t mentioned it …but do you really think people would care that we’re doing bread at home in a machine?

“That’s it!  Now you’re getting to my point!”

“Which is what, besides sneaking around and being obscure?”

This was dragging out and the wind was picking up and all I had on was a short-sleeved shirt.  The rotundo fellow looked like he was decked out for Arctic survival school.

“You need to focus more on the things you actually DO around here.”

He gave a sweeping gesture, waving around the property.

“Well, I do report a lot of it…”

“I’m sure some of your readers find your falling off a ladder interesting, but do you ever talk about the REST of it?

How many readers know about that cheap plastic miter gauge on your table saw that you’re trying to find a replacement for, as an example?  You should give people more useful information, like that.

It’s OK to tell them that an aluminum table on a table saw SEEMS like a good idea, but cast iron is probably a better long-term investment.  That kind of thing, do you see?

Report stuff people can ACT on…”

“Like what?”

“Well, like you and Elaine having the debate about that big bull pine tree  over yonder…and that strip of pines out to the west of your office building.  Why not talk about THAT?”

“I figured that the conversations we have are between us and don’t need to be written up…”

How the hell did he know that Elaine doesn’t want me to take down a dozen big tall pines because my elaborate plans to compete with the Tennessee Valley Authority (with my solar power system ) are being seriously hampered by big tree shadows that are blocking direct sunshine?  I’d figured it’s costing me about fifty to seventy-five bucks a month in lost solar power…

“You want me to write up more of the small stuff?”

“I wouldn’t tell  your bride that going Paul Bunyan on her trees is small stuff.

Nor is it small stuff to think for a week on where to put those 10 glass block windows you’ve framed up for your studio/sound/thinking room retreat you’re building.

Anyone can write on the Internet.  The Head Office just wanted me to drop by and mention you need to focus more on keeping it real, relevant, and responsive.

You knew that, I suppose, but my messenger duty was to remind you.

Now I’ve done that and I gotta go…Ho, ho, ho…

“Wait!”

I’d put the gun back in shoulder shoulder holster.  This fellow had as good a line of BS as I’d ever heard.

“Before you leave, I noticed you’re wearing green cammo.  I thought all you Mirthers wore RED suits.  Nice beard, however…

“Your reader Ben already told you the answer to that…you have to listen more closely to your readers.  That’s the responsive part.”

“What he asked was whether it was true ya’ll used to wear GREEN suits prior to Coca Cola doing a marketing campaign  and forcing you to change to RED because it went better with their product color…”

“Well, he’s right, but like you always say, Everything’s a Business Model, isn’t it?  Ho….ho….ho…..

Say…did you watch Tomorrow People’s first season?

“Yeah…how’d you know?

“Watch this….beats a sled six ways to Sunday….”

With that, he raised his right hand over his head, snapped his fingers once and there was a soft ripping sound followed by what looked like a vertical purple rip in….space-time….and he just stepped through it.  And at that very same moment, a brief orchestral hit with a touch of synthesizer came from his direction.

“Hey!  Where’d you go?  Where did you come from???”

The wind was picking up and it had turned bitterly cold.

Then suddenly a voice – sounding far, far away – was heard clearly just above the wind:

“Check the Carol Christian piece in The Houston Chronicle!   Ho…ho…ho….”

I went back in the office and hit the Houston Chronicle site.  Well, I’ll be damned!  There it was as I read:

Ho…ho…ho….

Now, About that Birthday

I am shocked.

Not one single email complaining about my Christmas story yesterday.  Could it be that the Retailing Christmasjack is that real and apparent?

Reader Rose Marie came to my defense:

Hi George,

I almost always enjoy your columns…and the days I don’t are only because I am too busy to sit and really read. But, today’s article on Christmas was exceptionally good and correct. Don’t misunderstand, I am a Christian. But, I am so tired of religion. And one of my favorite sayings that I use quite frequently is ‘everything is a business model’!

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GDP and Percentagewise Disease

Time once again to attempt unraveling one of the most confusing reports ever created:  The Gross Domestic Product numbers out this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  From their press release, always  a kind of NY Times crossword sort of self-referential percent-speak:

“Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). With this second estimate for the third quarter, the increase in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in state and local government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in nonresidential fixed investment.

Somewhere, after many minutes of looking for the number, I can to this: $16.8908 trillion, plus or minus a cheeseburger.

Sometime in the next week, or so, I expect the St. Louis Fed data dispenser will hand us a chart that shows the (further or leveling of the) collapse of the velocity of money at M2.

For some unknown reason, rather than provide taxes which would push “dead money” back into circulation, the monetary policy people in America seem to think we can print enough paper money to make things work.  It may – or it may not.

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Coping: Christmasjack and National Gifting Day

Hi.  Mr. Bah-humbug here.  Time for our annual conversation about the realities of Christmas.

Usually, I don’t remind people of these realities until closer to the date, but this morning having been beset by more than the usual number of ads, I felt compelled to make a few points and offer some counterpoint to the building groundswell of retailing madness which overtakes otherwise reasonable people about this time of year.

Fact #1:  Christmas ain’t Jesus Birthday

At least, as near as I can tell, it’s an approximation/story which is at the core of a marketing campaign.  If you can think like a quant, at least think like a marketer.

Religions are, at one level  (and maybe several) marketing organizations.  When the Christian Church moved from the eastern Med and started working its way up into the core of Europe, what was encountered were a lot of pre-existing religions, such as the Wicca (off toward France/England), the Druids, and the Nordics.  And those Teutonic types.

In order to counter the influence of the pre-existing outfits, the market challenger (to put this is cold boardroom terms) needed a new campaign.  The campaign would need to be an “all-inclusive” affair, too.  Something that could take the existing market conditions (e.g. pre-existing religions) and usurp their power/hold on the target market.

Presto!

Wiki “Yule” off in yon Wikipedia and you’ll find Ures truly SYN (sh*ts you not):

Yule or Yuletide (“Yule time”) is a religious festival observed by the historical Germanic peoples, later being absorbed into and equated with the Christian festival of Christmas. The earliest references to Yule are by way of indigenous Germanic month names (Ærra Jéola (Before Yule) or Jiuli and Æftera Jéola (After Yule). Scholars have connected the celebration to the Wild Hunt, the god Odin and the pagan Anglo-Saxon Modranicht.

The marketing view of this time of year would hold that the “Challenger usurped the positioning of the existing player, consolidated around key repositioning elements and capitalized on what was then New Media (choirs, chants, and so forth in Big Churhces) in order to gain a higher conversion factor.”  Right, then.

I suppose it’s rude in here to point out that “conversion factor” is also equivalent to “sales conversions” in that each prospect (already owning a pre-existing belief product) ended up tithing oodles to the Challenger.

The bigger the hoopla around Christmas, the more conversions were there to be had by repositioning the existing ways as “backward,” “untrue,” and my favorite pejorative: “Pagan.”

Of course, not everyone “bought.” 

In fact, when you think about it, the task of converting a million, or so, poor people in the countryside into large revenue streams is fairly daunting stuff.  Especially when the tools are the Bible that’s been retooled countless times and (in 1582) the introduction of the Gregorian Calendar that replaced the Julian Calendar which has been adopted at the (First) Council of Nicaea in 325 A.D.  Date magic.

Near as most historians have found, Christmas didn’t appear until the 4th century and became the marketing centerpiece for the Christian marketing in southeast Europe.  Eventually, the stragglers, who might remember the “old ways” were singled out (and banished, killed or stake-fried) in the Inquisition.

Somewhere in here, one can observe that apparently, religions go through a zealous/marketing fervor  some XXX number of years after their founding (and mass marketing program kick-off).  Using this kind of marketing program “timing model” we can see how modern-day Islam is flexing its muscles in the same sort (and timing) way that Christianity did in Europe.  Old with the old, in with the “new & improved” more “true” to roots, and so forth.

None of which is meant to offend, it’s just that when one becomes aware of the lengthy list of Mid Winter Solstice Festivals, one can observe that “consolidation marketing” is a brilliant strategy to employ along with a voluntary 10% tax. 

This “voluntary 10% tithing/tax” is where the Western privacy with economic disclosure springs from:  People would understate their wealth in order to pay less protection money/tithing.  And they needed to keep their personal financial data quiet, lest they be accused of witchcraft or deceit.

Fact #2: Santa Has Been Hijacked; Why?

I won’t pretend to sit in judgment (“not my job”) on the “rightness” or “wrongness” of how the marketing campaign was carried out.

But I will tell you straight up that the festival theft included that shadowy fellow “Santa Claus” who seemed to behave in some bizarre habits.  But he also couldn’t seem to read the calendar well, since he was moved from December 6 to December 25 – which means even the (early Christian) Santa was displaced almost three weeks to make the church marketing program (CMP) work better.

Once again, the hard reality of a Wikipedia entry must be dealt with:

Santa Claus, also known as Saint Nicholas, Father Christmas, Kris Kringle and simply “Santa“, is a fantasy figure with legendary, mythical, historical and folkloric origins who, in many western cultures, is said to bring gifts to the homes of the good children on the night before Christmas, December 24. However in some European countries children receive their presents on St. Nicholas’ Day, December 6.[1] The modern figure of Santa Claus was derived from the Dutch figure of Sinterklaas, which, in turn, was part of its basis in hagiographical tales concerning the historical figure of Christian bishop and gift giver Saint Nicholas. During the Christianization of Germanic Europe, this figure may have absorbed elements of the god Odin, who was associated with the Germanic pagan midwinter event of Yule and led the Wild Hunt, a ghostly procession through the sky.

I’ve heard two schools of thought on why Santa had such a strong love of children, bringing them toys, or lumps of coal.

One is pleasant enough not to mention practical:  It goes to the idea that back in preindustrial times, a single person could not “make it alone” because times were hard, there was no power company, no welfare, no phones to call for help.  All people had was one-another and it was for this reason that children were celebrated – they were a sign of future familial, wealth.

But the darker version of Santa is much, much more grim. Since the peoples of Europe, targets of the mass marketing campaign, were “uncultured,” is it possible that systemic child abuse was somehow in play?  Could it be the presents for the kids for “being good” was really a social code word for something else?  Like silence bought?  Speak up, kid, and you’re toast.  “Silent night.” 

The darker side language, when all else is removed (like all the emotional hooks programmed in societally) and it does look pretty ugly when you run it through linguistic filters, even the crude ones we use around here.

We’ve read enough about religious groups abusing children (and lately a lot of cash settlements of lawsuits against one church in particular) to at least keep an open eye toward such behavioral misdeeds and wonder if there’s not something broken in the human mind once a certain level of holding power/sway over others is achieved?  “Absolute power corrupts, absolutely…”  Merry what-mas?

Fact #3:  Then Santa was ‘Jacked

Our “data-based view of Life” goes on to suggest that since about 1850, when Santa Claus really came into his own…

“…This image became popular in the United States and Canada in the 19th century due to the significant influence of Clement Clarke Moore‘s 1823 poem “A Visit From St. Nicholas” and of caricaturist and political cartoonist Thomas Nast.”

…that yet another marketing challenger arrived.  A slow rise, almost like a start-up – this new market sector would not begin its meteoric rise to dominance until after 1900, or so.

I speak of the new sector owners: Retailers.

Just as the early Christian Church was mass marketing to Druids, we see a similar pattern of marketing usurpation and exploitation in how the Retails implemented their strategy.

Notice that they are continuously marketing “Just in time for Christmas” and “Christmas comes but once each year.”  It’s the old “scarcity builds demand” track.  Solid.

Thus, their marketing campaign is built on the success of the previous Christian positioning.  This is a very common strategy in marketing.  If a challenger wants to build on an existing base of good, well-found marketing, then simply steal top of mind dominance and all it your own.

And how did retailers steal Santa?  

Once again, observe the data which made Santa “appear” for all the “good little girls and boys” at the point-of-purchase (PoP) location!

Why, it’s frigging brilliant!  And none dare call if marketing!

To summarize:  What we can discern are intergenerational marketing programs which have evolved as a series of “check” statements and to these we can assign approximate campaign dates.

  • Early Middle Ages:  Initial marketing campaign period:  5th-15th centuries.  Positioning concept:  Check us out.”
  • 15th to 17th centuries:  Confirm brand ownerships.  Positioning concept “Check your brand loyalty”  Witchcraft trials and Inquisition for those who don’t purchase.
  • 18th-20th centuries: Relaunch of product with a new figurehead (Santa) for the youth market which was in some ways similar to the Classic Coke campaign.

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Scoring Our Trading Model

As we continue to pull bits and pieces together for 2014’s annual forecast, it’s time to see how well our Aggregate Index-based trading model would have done if you had done NOTHING but traded our timing model from last year about this time until present. At a time when banks are paying a crummy 0.1% (or less) on savings accounts, this system has been a huge winner. You oughta be impressed as hell when I run through the numbers with you. As the gurus of “Big Data” will tell you “data trumps gut” almost every time and this year was a hard lesson for me in not trusting my own model!

Learn to Sew!

Yes, fame and fortune could be yours, if you learn to sew.

Human flesh that is.   Says here in this morning’s NY Times that a each stitch is now over $500-bucks

Of course the $10- aspirin is a pretty good racket, too.  Learn to sew and push pills is my new reincarnation plan.  Now if I can only dream up a way to do it without $150K in student loan debt…$5 per stitch for the doc, balance on loans?

Market Takes a Pause

Worrywarts are back in control on the Street this morning with the futures sagging after a little pullback yesterday.  When I looked (over here), the Dow was looking down 60 points or so.  

There’s also be a decline in the POG (price of gold for newbies)…it’s down to a five-month low.

Much of the (so-called) economic recover has been related to falling interest rates.  As the yield on bonds (and bank accounts) have plummeted, the small earnings turned in by stocks have looked (comparatively) pretty good.  Ergo, up, up, and away on the indices.

But when the Fed sends everyone into rehab (by easing their money-printing festival, also know as financial crack) that’s going to drive up rates and, as you can see in the five-year chart of the 10-year Treasury note over here, it’s starting to look like the bottom may be in for rates.

As I pointed out in yesterday’s report, Greenspansonian logic aside, Robert Shiller’s concerns about an overvalued market make even more sense today.  And a reasonable Dow (13,000 or lower) makes perfect sense.

If auto sales, which will be released later today, fall to the darker side of forecasts, the market might be down 100 or more by the close.  Or, this could be turnaround Tuesday…we’ll just wait and see.

In the Co9nstruction Spending report, we see that:

he U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2013 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $908.4 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.8%)* above the September estimate of $901.2 billion. The October figure is 5.3 percent (±2.1%) above the October 2012 estimate of $863.1 billion.

And while a 5.3% increase in spending sounds good, remember that there’s been a huge increase in the money supply (printing).  M2 is up 6.5% compared with a year ago, so anything less than 6.5% increases in construction bucks seems to me like no growth at all.

Hand me some of them meds, and I’ll try to look at it a little more optimistically. Or pass the pipe…

Talk is Cheap

Veep Joe Biden is heading to Asia shortly to see what can be done to hand out chill pills to the Japanese and Chinese who are slowly upping the ante over the Senkaku Islands area.

The islands are about 190 air miles from China’s coast, about 110 miles from Taiwan, and 95 miles, or so, from Okinawa which the Japanese claim.

While this may not seem like a big deal (rocks in ocean, who cares?) as always under our “Everything’s a Business Model” thinking, a quick read of Wikipedia reveals what?

After it was discovered in 1968 that oil reserves might be found under the sea near the islands,[9][10][11][12][13] Japan’s sovereignty over them has been disputed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, commonly known as Taiwan) following the transfer of administration from the United States to Japan in 1971.

So there you have it:  Another front opens in the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars which, although it’s not apparent till you think about it, is what has been driving globaltics for the past dozen years plus…

More after this…

No Luck, Yingluck

The prime minister of Thailand has dismissed calls for her resignation.  But with police allowed demonstrators to get close to the seat of government, in what’s called an “easing of tensions.”  Which, as these things go, should last only a few days before crap lights up again.

Middle East “Lets Make a Deal” Time

To some, the idea of praying at a particular wall wouldn’t be such a big deal.  But, to Jewish activists who want to pray at Jerusalem’s Temple Mountain, it’s a very big deal, especially to the Muslim world which considers it their space.

Our resident war gamer picks it up from there:

On the surface, Netanyahu seems to be upping the ante, or ‘upping yours’ to anyone who is not an Israeli.

Know what I think?  This could potentially be a part of any ‘compromise’ Netanyahu demands from Sunni led Saudi Arabia for doing what will surely be the lion’s share of the dirty work against their Shi’ite rival Iran.  Minimalizing Iran will also likely stabilize Syria and marginalize Hezbollah, as both are sponsored by the Iranians.

Yes, the Saudi’s could rather easily import nukes ‘on loan’ from Pakistan to counter Iran and the long suspected Israeli arsenal, but that runs entirely counter to the Saudi monarchy’s goal of a nuclear free Middle East.  If Iran is actually taken down by Israel with help from the Saudis, quid-pro-quo tradeoffs could be a large part of any agreement once the dust settles.  You can let your imagination run free as to what other trade-offs could be possible if some semblance of security ever truly settles over the area – never mind that any such security would have resulted from what would surely be a very costly war in terms of regional blood and treasure.

Cheers,  “Warhammer”

Oh, and in the midst of some of the major parties trying to work things out, looks more and more like our president will soon announce a trip to Tehran.  Oh, sure, the WH denies such a think is in the wings, but the more they deny, the more it seems likely.  So just when some of the parties figure out a deal along with come the peacemaker……you can probably sketch out how well this will work out.

China We Have Heard On High

Gently drifting in from the Winnipeg bureau and our snooze analyst there…

Dear Mr. Ure,

Is the Chang’e-3 mission more of an international alliance than first thought?

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