Some hardcore economic reality leaked this week from one of the regional Fed chiefs. But it’s not making headlines. Maybe because it’s not a furtherance of monetizing Americans. A refreshingly candid view of things ahead. Moral hazard abounds in America these days. Particularly in economics. Would you walk into a crooked Casino if they had … Read More
A longish – but I figure quite important – ramble to begin with… It’s a discussion of how you look at piles of data. And how sometimes, when you look, it’s what’s not there that matters. Background We will frequently cite something called our Aggregate Market Index when addressing things like long wave economic cyclicity in … Read More
Our Aggregate Index just hit: 39,793.92 See the highlighted box here: Now things will get interesting! Everyone to the high board? Or can them pump this puppy up even more!!!??? Hype,, shuck, or dive? It’ll be the close that matters… Debrief in the morning. g
Our Aggregate just hit 39615.86 before the top of the hour. May keep going, on momentum/overshoot, but we have now hit the Wave IV green zone target of 39,609.50. Whee! (Bank of England is still printing, too!) (Widows and orphans to the lifeboats?)
How far will this likely Wave 1’s wave iv take us into rally land before we fall back to Monday lows (next week?)? Our Aggregate Index closed Thursday at 39,230.21…which (at 7 points) is a “close enough” for us: OK, the rally looks like it will continue on up this morning. 39472.6 on the early … Read More
Implementation note with the Fed (no change in happy-talk) report: (fine print the financial press glosses over…) “Effective September 23, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to: Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent. Increase the System Open … Read More
Yes, the anti-fragile crowd could be wrong. Complexity might actually speed up – not retard – financial collapse. It is entirely possible that while Nasim Taleb followers have been spouting off about how complexity will “save us” the exact opposite is likely true for reasons we will explore today. This is not to diss Taleb’s book … Read More
My consigliere and I are both very worried about the future. So before we get into the blood and guts of current markets and “news” a few items that are beginning to pop up for next year. First, there are independent reports that in September 2022 there will be a major earthquake in Japan. Something well … Read More
Rumbling First, keep an eye on Florida and East Coast real estate: La Palma volcano eruption today: evacuation, possible tsunami and live updates. The decades long fear is a massive tsunami from a caldera blow-out there (ocean of water onto steam-generating lava) could be a worry. Read the Ward and Day analysis of how ugly … Read More
Ton to go over this morning. First, though, a useful think, or two, about the fall’s economic calamity to come. Even if you’re not subscribing to our Peoplenomics newsletter, do be aware that even though a “hard down” is likely in the US economy this fall and into early spring, there’s a case (in the charts) … Read More
With our Aggregate index long-term top holding (for now) we can project how bad things are likely to become over the rest of the year. Into next, as well. Despite other flaws, the advice about “buying Christmas presents early” from VP Harris does begin to make sense when we go off dot-connecting. Instead of a … Read More
Looks like the Wave 1 down and Wave 2 rally in the Peoplenomics Aggregate may be done. Dow and S&P futures are already down in the pre-open…and two news reports indicate structural problems for the financial sector might just be warming up. One at a time… Fed Ahead One of the issues to consider going … Read More
A bit of a long woo-woo tale this morning, but incredibly useful in understanding the world. Thus, in addition to a look at Retail Sales just out, the new jobless filings, and a few other headlines, we will spend some interesting time in Ure’s World of Woo-Woo. First: The Retail Sales May I have the … Read More