America “Circufied”

Take me to the Circus – I feel the need to get Circufied!

Even before the third-grade theatrics begin to unravel before the Fools on the Hill, we have already drawn the one conclusion that matters-greatly.

The market is in a potential “bottom falling out” scenario.    Even if you don’t subscribe to our Peoplenomics newsletter – where grown-ups consider ways to make money and stay a step ahead of the herd – I think you’ll find the daily position of our Aggregate Index useful.

Some explanatory notes:

  • There are two price channels roughed-in.  The blue channel is longer-term while the black channel is from about July 1st, or thereabouts.
  • The blue squiggly is our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index.
  • The red line is a 9-day moving average.
  • The green line only matters to subscribers, lol.

Now we put on our algorithmic thinking cap and jot down some “soft rules” of materials and see what – if anything – is being shown us:

  • We are at the bottom of the shortest-term channel.
  • Market’s don’t crash from “tops of channels” – they break through bottoms.
  • Markets also act to take the most money from the most people.

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter-point.  This should begin to weigh on the market, but there’s something of an investor “con” underway.

Money from the Trump tax breaks has been pouring into stock buy-backs.  This makes it appear that the Trump economy is booming.  But, not so fast, bubba.  Yes, the earnings per share are going up but here’s the slick:

The actual earnings *(the top number or numerator representing earnings) can remain flat and still show a big increase in earnings-per-share (EPS) by making the denominator smaller.

Let’s say we have a company with $1-million in earnings and 1-million shares.

Obviously this company is reporting $1 per share of earnings.

Now, let’s say earnings go down…so the top number if $900,000 of earnings, but thanks to the magic of buy-backs, there are only 450,000 shares trading.  See what happened?

Earnings doubled even though the company performance went down.  I laugh my self to sleep at night running numbers like this.  Elaine can’t stand it…because I wake up laughing so hard….

Yet, this is the world we’re in.

A few folks grok the BigPic…. a few other sites are saying it, too.  Even CBS reports with a worried tone that big company execs are cashing in shares like crazy.

While we’ll admit to making a few short-side shekels earlier in the week, we’re sitting in cash right now.  I’ve learned from experience to follow the data and that won’t be clear until next week.  I expect the Jellyfish Party – formerly the republicrats – will fail to vote on Kavanaugh this week.  And that would push things all the closer to the election.

Except, history says it’s not quite crash time by an important metric.  Those metrics are 37, 55, and 73 days from all-time market highs.  That means, based on historical data (which we will be tracking on the Peoplenomics side) we have a date just a week before the election and the earliest possible “real” crash data. And 55-days gets us past the election basis the all-time high of the Dow September 21.

We presently prefer the Grand Fake-Out of Bears which would infer some well-choreographed riots and disruptions if Kavanaugh is confirmed, but then (based on buy-back cooked books) we return to the rally until next spring.

We continue to be shocked at how people will join a cause – any cause – rather than bother with facts.  Evidence?  Whatzzat?  ‘We Believe Survivors.’ 1,600 Men Sign a Full-Page Ad Supporting Christine Blasey Ford.

All this, in turn, leaves me scratching my “solar panel” wondering if the Jellyfish party might actually confirm Kavanaugh this week…bets in place?

Dollops of Daily Data

How about we start with revisions to GDP?

Real GDP Percent Change

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent in the first quarter

Then there’s international trade and such:

And since that was such a spine-tingling adventure, dare we even get into Durable Goods?  I mean can  you stand the drama of it all?

All these are positives.  But, fortunately for the Trump-bashers, they won’t have to address a healthy economy…not with disruptive nomination tactics to sell…

With this, the market futures are solidly boring with the Dow waiting for the Senate Soap to begin…

Quippable and Not

Apple and Amazon ecosystems may have trouble ahead with their music revenues as Tencent Music, bound for U.S. IPO, profits from social savvy.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Will Travel to North Korea Next Month.

Breakfast? Majority of Americans no longer eat 3 meals a day, study finds.

Indonesia Will Start Holding Weekly ‘Fake News’ Briefings to Combat Misinformation.

A short column with lots of pictures today…and as usual, moron the morrow.  Now, let’s see how stupid America can act, shall we?

(What do you mean “It’s not an Act?”)

9 thoughts on “America “Circufied””

  1. Havent got the big one yet, having a hard time getting a locality. Definitely heating up, wont be long. Soooooo crazy busy with work and women etc. I can barely keep up with things.

    Definitely in the language around the net.

    Earthquake today: Alaska, Philippines and Oklahoma hit by HUGE QUAKES overnight

    Have to get busy grabbing gears bruh!

    Will try to rememeber to read ure latest later today.

  2. “the Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter-point”


    i actually don’t think anything is going to drop while trump is in office.. but then I use to wake up every morning and look at the clock exactly at 3:15 every morning.. don’t know why.. but I did that for four years.. so I wonder since I am prone to dreams if March 15 has any play in my daily clock check. and since we will be in another aggressive campaign season.

  3. “Let he/she (without sin!!) cast the first stone.” Did we forget so soon? Welcome into the land of Bolshevism, because Democracy has died when our illustrious Senate has chosen to take orders from a ‘bunch of hoes’ rather than doing their elected duty of having voted already, (after due diligence!) over this particular issue at hand.
    Uncle Joe (Stalin) would have been proud that his disciples follow the method that he had so perfected. ;-) Victory w/o war.

    • You know..I’m definitely against sex abuse and those sort of actions do happen. BUT… Why after all these years why now when there are rumors of a payoff to anyone that can stop it.
      He built a career why didn’t anyone try to tarnish his achievements then.

  4. Will Judge Kavanaugh get confirmed this week? For more of this gripping story, tune in next Monday to find out!

  5. I do sympathize. The wailing of toddlers while at the circus distracts from the main event.

    In other news from the fishbowl, a Beluga whale has taken up station downstream from Canary Wharf off Gravesend in the River Thames far south of its normal range. Human media report that the aquatic mammal is “feeding normally and swimming strongly”. Belugas typically inhabit Arctic waters.

  6. I believe you can write-off “37.” Trump is too Wharton-savvy to allow things to tank before the election. If the Dems gain a majority in the House, though, I see a subtle disappearing of any stop-loss tactics, as well as (at least a partial) return to honest accounting — something the markets and the American public haven’t seen since Jerry Ford was da Prez…

  7. It always amazes me how our economy just keeps buzzing along at a break neck pace upward despite this sick liberal attack being displayed on on a PT Supreme Court nominee. Both Ford & Kavanaugh are being used as pawns by the Deep State led by Schumer in this folly. IN a week, It will all be forgotten & the country will move on with Judge Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court & new attacks against PT will start.

    It is looking better for a Republican landslide in November.

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