Everyone run from street! America is nuts!
We have new-found respect for Senator Lindsey Graham, who pretty-much nailed it in his questioning of judge Brett Kavanaugh in the wake of the Christine Ford testimony at the “Sink-the-Kavanaugh Circus” on Thursday:
We have to concur with Graham. The whole process has been a joke.
But the real answer will come later this morning how many once-upon-a-time Constitutionalists of the Party of Lincoln have gone off the rails and joined the Jellyfish Party. Should be a revealing day.
Meantime, I looked up the go-funds for Christine Ford and it’s more than half a million bucks… Who’s policing that the money-raised will actually get to her?
Personal Income Data Out
The irrational markets, so far, are reacting to the monthly “heartbeat of the market” we identified a while back for our Peoplenomics.com readers, more than the Washington side-show There is, after all, a typical end-of-month decline, and as soon as the Kavanaugh deal is done, there’s a chance of a larger upside rally. After which, the matter of mid-term elections (vote to lock-up American politics, really) comes along next.
In the meantime, we entertain ourselves with data reports just out – like this one:
“Personal income increased $60.3 billion (0.3 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $51.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.4 billion (0.3 percent).
Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.
We assume you saw where U.S.-China trade war triggers seafood supply chain shake-up. Something fishy about all this trade talk, perhaps? What would a trade war net is coming into focus, lol.
Meantime, in addition to stock buy-backs to boost earnings, Global funds raise U.S. stock holdings to three-and-a-half-year high.
And it looks like Musk’s ox has been gored as an SEC lawsuit sends Tesla shares tumbling. We wonder if Tesla shares could be the poster-child comparison to the end the run in 1929? A 2004 BIS paper offers some insight:
“Credit fueled a real estate boom in 1925, a Wall Street boom in 1928-9, and a consumer durables spending spree spanning the second half of the 1920s. That these booms developed under the fixed exchange rates of the gold standard meant that they generated little inflationary pressure at home and that their effects were transmitted to the rest of the world. Absent overt signs of inflation, the Fed had no reason to raise the official short-term rate.
Eventually, however, the Fed and other central banks grew increasingly restive over what they perceived as speculative excesses in financial markets and with a growing incidence of malfeasance and graft, evident in the activities of Charles Ponzi in Florida, Clarence Hatry in London, and Ivar Kreuger in Stockholm. This concern with the effects of asset-price inflation on the economy led them finally to tighten.”
See details in BIS Working Papers No 137 “The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong by Barry Eichengreen* and Kris Mitchener**)
An emerging paradigm around here is that the recovery from the 2009 Housing Bubble bottom may be little more than a slower-running replay of the Florida Land Boom aftermath and the eventual tightening that cause the 1929 stock market collapse. Remember, by late summer of 1929, private money rates in NYC were up to the 6-percent area. Another Fed hike this year ought to put us over the edge, though (depending on mid-term elections) perhaps not until next spring (April May 2019 is our current track). Between now and then?
We still have a blow-off top to contend with…all made more difficult to forecast because of the setting-in of what Zeus the Cat refers to as Human Alaska Mountain Syndrome (HAMS).
“No, you stupid Cat,” I scold him. “It’s not Denali you idiot, it’s Denial!”
“Rude human…you promised me THAT was in Egypt!”
Never, ever, trust a Cat – particularly a lexdysxic one – for financial advice.
Quips and Quotes
Grist for my next novel (Grav) just showed up. Turns out there may have been ancient pyramids in CHINA. Thanks to Super-Lawyer Jeff for the heads-up.
Houston reader LB notes there’s a big uptick in mentions of an October crash in the wings. We don’t like the odds, but we’re still taking bets on whether the Demoncrats will hold massive national demonstrations if the Jellyfish actually vote… Exceptional (and irrational) times… unless you’re in Denali, lol.
On the lighter side, here’s a great one for your CIS 101 class: ‘Body’ turns out to be sex doll, police say. NSS?
Florida woman allegedly hit husband with vacuum cleaner part: report. Reminds me of Pappy’s guidance: Never buy a woman a vacuum-cleaner for her birthday.
And from our Megalomaniac Watch (Brussel’s Sprouts) file we read how Belgium to sue Google for not blurring images of defense sites. Say, this gives us a dandy new science career. Let’s call it EU Satellite Dimagery. It isn’t like the Russians don’t have better…who are these people in Belgium who thing the rest of the world is as stupid as them? You wonder why you’ll live to see the collapse of the EU? Here’s you go….
Mad science advice. As we read how UMD scientists awarded $1 million to generate single photons for quantum research, it struck use they should look at Tinder – isn’t that where single anything can be found? (rim-shot).
And our Useless News award for the weak goes to CNN for reporting What Bill Cosby will eat behind bars. More third-place network bologna, huh?
Side of Woo-Wood? Trust in Andy
In-depth readers of Urban will know that we take the woo-woo side of life very damn seriously. So, we’re happy from a science standpoint, but not so much from a displaced people side, to once-again credit regular reader-poster Andy who was spot-on with his prediction last week in the Comments section calling a big late-week earthquake this week:
And, as long as we’re “on the woo” side, I did mention my next book is available for pre-order for digital devices on Amazon, right?
In the book, I get into how at least some of us get to the “source layer” of feeling the future. When I’m awake, that is.
Last night I literally crashed about 5 PM. I usually get the “earthquake tireds” before big one, and the lead-in to today’s was real short and sharp…great call by Andy.
Lemme see….stock futures down 100…Jellyfish swarm due today…and…oh yeah…
Time to warn the pigs while you go chasing the other kind of links. Ya’ll come back tomorrow and bring 310-million of Ure closest friends….Free coffee…free Angela…free Bobby….oops…musta missed my meds, lol…