Housing Still Hot

Hot off the press release:

NEW YORK, July 26, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices.

Data released today for May 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com

Effective today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have been renamed to the S&P CoreLogic CaseShiller Indices. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain in May, the same as the prior month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.4% annual increase, down from 4.7% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.2%, down from 5.4% in April. 

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last four months. In May, Portland led the way with a 12.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 10.7%, and Denver with a 9.5% increase.

Eight cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2016 versus the year ending April 2016.  

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.2% in May. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.8% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase in May. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% decrease, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.1% month-over-month decrease.

After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

ANALYSIS “Home prices continue to appreciate across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Overall, housing is doing quite well. In addition to strong prices, sales of existing homes reached the highest monthly level since 2007 as construction of new homes showed continuing gains.

The SCE Housing Expectations Survey published by the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows that consumers expect home prices to continue rising, though at a somewhat slower pace.”  

This dovetails with our work predicting a decline to begin in 2017, not this year.  And a chart?  Sure…


This all means prices based on the 20-city data are back up to 2005 levels.  Doesn’t count the buy-sell spread, commissions, costs, etc. however.  YMMV.

Acting Like a Bunch of Democrats

Oddly coincidental that my Coping section this morning deals with rattlesnakes.

Why the venom flow around Philly is a spectacle to behold…

It comes complete with things like plans to bust the Second Amendment.  Hardly surprising, however, since Hillary has Secret Service with guns protecting her. Laws are for the little people, though, right padnah?

Meantime, I expect the insanity was underscored with this week’s Japan knife attack.  Registration of knives to come?.  A far-out notion, once upon a time, the mass murder of 19 disabled people in Japan,. and the wounding of 45 more, makes makes a strong case that knives should be registered along with democrats.

Wonder if Ginzu will do as well in the market as Smith and Wesson has done?

After all the predictions about how ugly the GOP convention would be, it’s nice to see equal time being applied at least in part as the demo melt-down is just warming up.

Math Impaired Kaine?

Himlery (that’s a typo, right?) Clinton’s VP is promising to make illegal legal within first 100-days in office.

Which, near as I can figure it would be illegal, but that would fit the Clinton/Obama mold pretty well.  Stack the High Court and no problem. Laws are for little….ask Bernie what’s in it for him while you’re at it. Clinton “Foundation” gig, maybe?

With Bernie all –in for Hil, we notice that Sanders and Sell-out both begin with S.  Or B as in Bernie or Bolsheviks.  Both have trust issues…

More seriously?  One of three things is likely going on:  a) the demos are promoting the hell out of illegals voting.  b) there are no citizens planning to vote this year which would make things easy.  Or c) the voting is rigged.

All of the above, you say?  Show of hands?  Floor vote?

Aye’s have it.

On to Markets

To my (still recovering) eye, it looks like we are into the III up of the larger V that began in 2009.  If this is the case – and this is not trading advice – we should trade sideways to down a bit to 2,160 down to 2,155 in the next week or two before resuming upward momentum.

Yes, we have a small short position, mainly to pick up some tip money.

The Fed Meeting is underway today, but no increase in rates is expected during the convention.  We will be back with an update after 8 AM when the Case-Shiller S&P Housing data comes out.  A fine bit of litmus, there.

Futures are on hold – flat.  Which is fine because it makes for a perfect-looking wave structure.

Marketing, Marketing

I may need to get on the blower to our Indonesian Bureau (Bernard Grover’s our Bureau Chief there) and have him pop over to this disgusting restaurant that serves from toilet bowls…

It really goes to show how American marketing has lost its edge and why many of NY’s top experts (or at least one) have gone ex-pat.  We are losing the Gross War and Asian ingenuity seems to be on a roll (and a puke).

There is still room for a knock-off, however.  And I didn’t see toilet paper in lieu of paper towels…

(We regurgitate only the best news around here, at least until noon.)

Check Your Social Security Account

Hack attack and scam warning

Stupider than the DNC?

I looked and sure enough it can be found. 

For example: “Kim Kardashian and Chrissy Teigen Reveal They Both Got Into Big Fights During Each Other’s Weddings…”

Thus concludes our nod to least common denominator “news” efforts.

We now return to more adult modes of thinking…

Remember, Everything’s a Business Model – even pseudo news – and it’s a fine business model indeed.  Who would have believed even 50-years ago during the Hard Work Era that we would find ways to monetize useless personality drivel?

Yet here we are…It’s amazing and awe-inspiring.  As in :”Aw shit, are we really that dumb?”

Yes; ‘fraid so.

15 thoughts on “Housing Still Hot”

  1. George, I’m disappointed in your approach to the horrific knife attack in Japan – the people killed and injured were disabled and unable to defend themselves – doubt any kind of weapon could have been defended against – making this into a ‘cheap shot’ regarding the second amendment is beneath you!

    (As point of fact there are regulations regarding knives carried on one’s person in the United States – kitchen knives belong in the kitchen, though people do on occasion use them as weapons. I would think it depends on the locality – four inches seems to be a common limit, with things like ‘switchblades’ not allowed.)

    Japan has a very complicated history regarding firearms and it is not as simple as either in the USA or for that matter, Europe. When ‘the authorities’ in Japan became aware of ‘guns’ in the 1600s, they understood the political power they represented and totally banned the importation of the device, and it was not Admiral Perry forced his way into Japanese waters in 1850, that guns and the western customs were allowed in the area. There is so much more to this than can be said here – and as I said it is so much more complicated than any single ‘news story’.

    • Please ease off! ;-) George didn’t ‘cheap shot’ anything or anybody. PC will get us killed, eventually. Don’t people understand this??

      • What it does tell me is that hardly anybody was around taking care of these disabled/elderly people, and someone who was mentally ill did this . . . the Japanese are currently faced with a ‘low-replacement’ population crisis and could ‘do’ with people emigrating, but Japan is a very closed society, and the birth rate is not meeting the demand.

        I see a parallel between this and the demand of Donald Trump to tightly control only the ‘right sort’ of people to come to the United States. Does his running mate – Pence – who is anti-choice, believe that a more restrictive control on abortion will lead to a higher birth rate for our country too?

        I am not anti-gun (or knife), but working in security, I have seen some remarkable ill-use of objects that could be considered weapons in the hands of ‘idiots.’

    • Beyond the point, take it at “knife value.” It is a mass killing, and it, as you well know, done without a gun. And, once again, criminals do not obey “knife” laws.

    • When ‘the authorities’ in Japan became aware of ‘guns’ in the 1600s, they understood the political power they represented and totally banned the importation of the device, a

      As I understand the history…not quite that way. Guns came in, were used to establish a new ‘boss’ and THEN banned by the new ‘boss’.

  2. I watched “The Big Short” last night – had not yet seen it. Great movie and sometimes, movies have sequels.

    Did you see S&P hit that 2175 number twice that I mentioned in prior day replies here? We have Tom Lee on CNBC today indicating a small pull back but thinking 2350 is in the cards later this year. That would be George’s Blow Off top.

    Also, I came to remember something regarding the coverage of the Ottawa-located Bilderberg meeting where Daniel Estulin and the late Jim Tucker and Alex Jones were up in Canada with the group meeting at a hotel west of Ottawa. Then, they said “the agenda was that they were going to pop the real estate bubble”. The basis of the real estate problems leading to “The Big Short”.


    • If we only took these signs more seriously – and if we had considered the oil bubble bursting in 2014 as a great shorting opportunity there (and subsequent big bounce and now wondering what’s next).

  3. “… we notice that Sanders and Sell-out both begin with S. Or B as in Bernie or Bolsheviks.”
    It’s difficult for me to believe that a ‘GOD’ created humans. Most animals have better sense; IMHO, of course!

  4. “makes a strong case that knives should be registered along with democrats.”

    I hear you on that one.. just like the idiots that bombed the race in boston.. would we all need to register our pressure cookers.. It isn’t the gun that kills its the idiot with the gun and his evil intentions.. there are millions of people all owning guns without any incidents..
    when I was little everyone had a gun.. use to take them to school.. show the teacher go hunting afterwards..with gun racks in the backs of almost all pickup trucks.. today kids are being shot by police because they are carrying squirt guns playing in a park..
    if you take away guns from the decent people the only people owning guns will be the criminal’s.

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