We have a strange way of looking at markets. Theory I cobbled-up called Aggregate Market Theory (AMT).
The thinking is very simple (with me, it would have to be, right?) If you have 10-dollars on you, it doesn’t matter whether you have a five in your left pocket and a five in your right. Or, if you have all $10-bucks in your back pocket. It’s still just $10-bucks.
Likewise, it doesn’t matter where the Dow, S&P 500, or NASDAQ Composite like. What matters in our way of looking at markets (which evolved and is tracked twice-weekly on our Peoplenomics.com side) is the aggregate movement.
Let me explain how this has been a “nothing year” so far.
As the year began, the Dow was about 24,922.68 (closing basis, January 3). The S&P 500 was 2,713.06 while the NASDAQ was hovering about 7,065.03. Apply our equal-dollar weighting (basis 2000) and it looks like 22,574 and change.
Monday closed with the Dow 23,573.04, the S&P at 2,677.84 and the NASDAQ ended at 7,145.28. But again, applying our equal-dollar weighting, we come up with 22,649.5.
When we look at the Aggregate market (for the year to date), it looks like the Aggregate has improved only 3-10th’s of one percent in 3-1/2 months. Repeated for the balance of the year, it offers the gloomy prospect of very small gains for serious, long-term, buy and hold investors.
Sadly, picture is even worse when we add in an adjustment for monetary inflation; that is, printing like hell at the Federal Reserve is still committed to “printing through” the second Depression.
Since January 1, M1 (cash and equivalents) has increased at an annualized rate of 5.3 percent while M2 (a broader measure) is up 2.5%. You can check my figures (through April 2) in the Fed’s week H.6 Money Stocks report here, if you can’t believe it.
As you know, the economic press in ‘Merica ain’t the brightest bulbs in the house. They are trained to report minutia (footnotes in financial statements are meaningful, don’t get me wrong) but they are lost in the woods on macro factors.
One of these is immigration.
We have the prototypes in Europe, though, where even though the mass migration from north Africa and the Middle East brought tons of social change (and one that will cost governments of Europe terribly in the longer term due to native versus migrant birth rates and such), the fact is that immigration is one way to “grow a country.” Or, at least, seem to on the surface.
The problem for the US today is that while we are nominally doing “better” at border controls, the effect of higher entry barriers seems to have been an upward monetization of crossings led by coyote-like people, and that has meant more black tar heroin coming in that way.
Just in the past week, we were reading how black tar was behind a major increase in wound botulism in the San Diego region. More border pressure may actually increase drug flow.
Authoritatively, the UN reports (data here) that the biggest heroin poppy growing country is still Afghanistan. 201,000 hectares of growing fields…which pencils out to 766 square miles.
With US policy otherwise nonsensical, we find it’s a sad-to-sick line to connect US foreign policy with dominance in drugs. But, as we’re always reminding, Everything’s a Business Model…border crossings, black tar, and the corrupt political system of America.
Toss in Mexico’s own poppy operations (100 square miles) and it’s easy to see there are no easy answers to relations with our narco-state neighbors to the south. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (which ain’t) anjd Myanmar, round out the picture, save a few plots in Colombia and such.
A Big Economic View
Which may bring the world into clearer focus for you, goes something like this:
- The Deep State is at war with Trump
- The Deep State is highly invested in the narco-business model.
- At a practical level, a wall would lead to a period of “withdrawal hell” that no one seems to be writing about.
- Tightening immigration won’t reduce Mexico’s poppy oppies.
- Farm labor rates may rise of reduced seasonal labor.
- And all of the ends with the continuing reduction of white Americans who are being out-screwed by recently arrived replacement citizens who will be 90% democrat.
- And so, with Social Justice as their “cause” the take-down of America is moving right along…
- Our money’s becoming worth less, and we expect Scott Pruitt at EPA will be next to do having shaken the regulatocracy at EPA.
See how simple this all is?
People made fun of old Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, who successfully (if you can call it that) navigated his country through a massive hyperinflation. Like it, or not, the US fed is using Modern Monetary Theory to push the economic shell of a country forward while we have, to use a boatyard term, the social version of “rot below decks.”
Toss in what we think of as “digital lynchings” by the SJW snowflakes, and it’s comedic at best.
On to Housing Starts
Just out from Census….but WAIT!
“Every picture tells a story, don’t it?”
Industrial Production and Utilization from the Fed around 9:15 (Eastern) this morning could change things…we shall see, but no upsets are priced in to thge market by the look of things. Dow futures up 200.
On the wires?
Meanwhile, at the Circus
The mayor of London’s agenda to ban certain knives is being adopted by media as the liberal grab for everything continues. I’m thinking the story Knife crime: What’s it like to be stabbed? is part of the media’s new party line.
The real pain my be in the hospital bills, but they didn’t seem to get into that. Not part of the narrative?
When we see an pseudo-gov outfit like BBC, we think in psyop terms of a “shaping operation.”
Am I the only one who remembers the problem when a virus evolved that could eat rubber? Quick! Go read “The Andromeda Strain!”
This is Award-Winning?
Well, world is still crazy…so off to work on Peoplenomics and to tear up the floor in the master bath. Water leak…chance to redo, redecorate and upgrade.
Pass me the Sawzall ?