One looking for a path into the uncertain future can’t be sure of just what to make out of today’s roll of headlines. Some news is hopeful, yet others not so much. Let’s begin on the positive side. Ben’s Prize Former Fed boss Ben Bernanke has shared the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. Not … Read More
Earlier this morning – before the GDP announcement, the Dow futures were down more than 200 points. This, coming on the heels of a gain Wednesday of 548-points is not exactly the end of the world. The GDP – nominally the value of everything made in America – has become something of a political football. … Read More
With markets in free-fall, we are again looking back at critical lessons to have internalized right now – like today – before we get into the Replay of 1929 any deeper. There are two main ones that come to mind. The first has to do with invention. So, in this regard, we’ll be focused on … Read More
Economics runs in reasonably clear cycles. At the moment, we are at (or just past) the top of a Housing cycle. The bottom, you’ll recall, was the spring of 2009. Prices firmed into 2010 as corporations bet on running rental pools of repossessed homes. Since then, it would be hard to find a better personal … Read More
This will sound paradoxical as hell. When can a stock market rally be bad? I mean really, really (potentially) bad? The answer is when it becomes part of the “last train out” before a global spasm of collapse which we figure will get organized in Europe within a month, that’s when! Let’s see what the longer … Read More
The ONLY question that matters today is “Will we bounce?” The stock market has been in hard down mode for a while now. And after the Futures markets became stable (a little after 5 AM Central) our long-term view (which told us a large Wave 3 Down was here) pointed to a nasty open. The … Read More
Henceforth this may be called Red Friday. June lows fell, but now trying to bounce a bit and kiss the lows again. While our lookahead allows for a modeled rally after today, the larger picture remains 50-shades of grim. About the only other counsel worth keeping is my consigliere, some colleagues I’ve worked on theory with … Read More
Old Man Ure needs to blow out super-early today. Car tabs come up so I need to make a run into town for the annual inspection (“yes, it’s a car”) and visit to the auto tabbery at the Courtly house in order to keep up the driveryly legalities. Twice a year the old Dog pickup … Read More
Glorious Thursday!~ It was a highly profitable Fed announcement for Ure’s, truly. And for a few of our readers, like D’Lynn for one. Yes, it was a dandy day. But punctuated with a reminder from my consigliere that although we are expecting something of a rally in here, “Counter Trend Trading is a great way … Read More
Fascinating historically based rambling-tale of a pseudo-academic logician’s thought processes kicks off today. Sudo apt-get install, shall we? From the top, then. The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975. Using this point alone, long wave economics can offer us AMAZING insight into the future of global conflicts. Including a couple of windows for the … Read More
Step right up, folks! With the long-term market peak in, we’re gonna play Crash Call! It’s a game where everyone can win – and everyone can lose. Get the date right? Got the right financial instruments in your pocket? You could be the Big Winner. Why the odds would embarrass Publisher’s Clearinghouse. Except, for one … Read More
Warning: Do NOT read today’s column near an open window. Yeah, it’s that bad. Here we are. Made it to Friday with a short position upside down based on early futures. Not terribly worried about it, though, since we can exit on any short-term rally. It’s NEXT WEEK we need to start thinking long and hard about. … Read More
Economics today is not the simple sport it may have been at the peak of the Industrialization of the West. Anymore, it’s a multivariate kluge (or stew, if you like) and ongoing battles for supremacy of power. You can skip ahead to the CPI and other data, but hear me out: Part of looking into … Read More