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Markets Hold for Fed Mins, S/W Time Machine, 1st of Four Heavy Econ Papers

This morning on Peoplenomics, the summer economics projects finally start coming out of the barn.

The New Navigators is the first of four connected papers looking at succession, economic lifecycles, regional instability, big-city sustainability, and whether the familiar long-wave “clock” may be an output of the economy rather than a fixed period. Then we run the News Compressor through the usual geopolitical, economic, weather, health, and AI trouble spots.

And for the deepest-work section, we fire up the latest Over-the-Horizon Software run. The interesting result isn’t a new prediction date — it’s that the existing September and late-October timing ridges held while the underlying evidence changed. That is exactly what you want to see from an experimental future-forecasting instrument: less fortune-telling, more measuring whether tomorrow is beginning to leave fingerprints on today.

Like, oh, the Fed minutes might, after lunch.

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6 thoughts on “Markets Hold for Fed Mins, S/W Time Machine, 1st of Four Heavy Econ Papers”

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  1. just tell me your new can kicking date. i cant read stuff i dont understand . AI language is above my level of intelligence . im old fashioned

    Reply

    • Len: there are really four time machine projects going on at the same time (though they share code in places). Using two commercial AI providers. I will keep this simple:
      the high-level runs look at news, gov officials, and so forth:What moved (summary vs 17 Aug baseline)

      Ridges: PERSISTED (Sep 15 dominant; Oct 31 secondary). Effective-root counts stable-to-slightly higher via continued Black Sea and transport atoms.
      Field mass: small incremental support from ongoing mutual Black Sea disruption and soyoil substitution confirmation; not a scoring-core change.
      Channels: GENERAL_NEWS / WFA / GOV (energy/climate/food) remain UP; PMFS directional consistency on later Hormuz normalization; HQV and most human-predictive still MISSING / BASELINE_INSUFFICIENT.
      SWFS: active but bridge-gated (no OTH mass).
      Strongest boring explanation remains physical/geopolitical propagation (constrained chokepoints ? freight/fuel/food substitution lags + El Niño). No pre-news human/query lead credit awarded.
      Other than the Aug 27 “leadership’ issues and Sept 14-17 range (which is a ridge top, not a spikey point on a chart) pay particular attention to this: HQV and most human-predictive still MISSING / BASELINE_INSUFFICIENT.
      HQV is Human quantified values. A predictive “source” does not issue daily (like the nonstop flow of news and shit – they come out only so often. For these, we need time for the predictions to fill before fully loading into time 1 or time 2 machines. The more intereting point was what I put in the appended technical note this morning:
      ADDED NOTE TECHNICAL NOTE:

      There is a reason we do not include a large corpus of “predictions” and especially “seers making date calls” in these experimental runs. It’s because of multiple factors, such as the predictor class of folks don’t do hourly updates (like news flows_) and there’s not a lot to draw on.

      In fact, our present “pre-tasker, predictive” is not really finding much outside of regular news flo0w – and that in itself is interesting. Are “predictors” simply good early news state change receptors? Worth asking because as of this morning we have:

      PREDICTOR FIELD: AMBER / SELECTIVELY HARDENING
      Dominant state: prolonged conflict + economic/market stress.
      Secondary state: political turnover, unrest and regime instability.
      Tail risks: energy/infrastructure disruption and a looser environmental/disaster cluster.
      Evidence that the predictor channels actually lead ordinary information: still LOW / BASELINE INSUFFICIENT.

      What this means – in practical terms – is that temporal referential work is flowing largely from news and information flows, government outlooks, and so forth. NOT from a (or a group_) of seers and predictors saying specific dates.

      So, if nothing else other than a fancier news aggregation tool, the OverTheHorizonSoftware project will at least help us sort out whether there is a time-stamped, machine-learnable system to get at the future. And if not, then it’s a move toward less reliance on (non-news-driven) intuition.

      So your simplified view (no math required!) is:

      Aug 27 +/- leaderships and challenge or change (could be anywhere)
      and S3ept 15 +/- which could be from anywhere.
      The technical note is saying: Right now the predictions are older//stale// and being recast as “continuation of shit in motion” with no relaly firm dates attached. The Oct 31 hot area isn’t a ridge yet, and may be a processing artifACT UNTIL ITS NATURE AND SOURCES (ROOTS) COUNT IS HIGHER.

      Reply

      • One more t5hing: BlinkLabNews runs are focused on next 7-days. OverTheHorizonSofstware.com is focused on longer-term work in the 1 week to one year steerable range for most users.
        If a new item said “Comet to impact Australia next week., BlinkLabNews would pick it up quickly but human reaction time is too slow (unless you jack a 747..) But OHTS at a year out gives you time to move to a different impact zone – like Calif.

        Reply

  2. GU : “… maybe the future is best left alone until it shows up …”

    Always ^ my inclination. Based on the inclinometer.
    Of course, your incline may vary.
    Egor of Fog

    Reply

  3. “Today’s starts with an old guy wondering how much of a lifetime can be handed to the next operator. ”

    Excellent question and one I have looked at for some years. No real answer but we have attempted to pass off information, advice and personal items for years as our Golden Years dwindle off.

    Started years ago when we moved to Costa Rica. Gathered the Clan together and dispersed items collected over the years along with family photos. Kids loved it. Swapped photos and items among themselves.

    As we had sold a small house we divided the $$ left over, after subtracting cost, by number of family members. All got a check to save, pay down debts and so on. No Vacations or other BS. Big SMILES!

    We think that giving away what we can now is better than after we move on to The Happy Hunting Ground. Can’t see the smiles from there.

    So over the years we have given away photos, furniture, tools, advice and $$.

    This has helped each of the children and lightened what we have but no longer use. But the biggest reward was the SMILES and HUGS of the kids.

    By passing on what we can to the younger set they have learned from us and appreciate what we are doing. Hopefully this will follow on to the grandkids.. So far looking good!

    I do hope that this helps some ones thinking about the future and their children.

    Cheers.

    Reply

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