We want to hand out the gold star for today’s class session to reader JRN who (going from memory) is up in one of the square states. He was asking about the market dump Thursday. “Was (today) the first chapter of a serialized Minsky moment?”
Let’s begin by letting off some tension. Market futures were up early. DCB (dead cat bounce) is the informal name for it. Which gets us to names—and to this Minsky fellow, whom Wikipedia describes this way:
“The term was coined by Paul McCulley of PIMCO in 1998, to describe the 1998 Russian financial crisis,[2] and was named after economist Hyman Minsky, who noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze.[4] Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s.”
The Vital Three-Part Answer
Since JRN is a Peoplenomics subscriber (and has been with us for more than a decade, in fact) I want to give him a complete answer. You get to read along – on the house – because we are likely rolling into historical times.
Answer #1:
What Minsky Missed: Having walked around with a small international jet airline’s financial model in my head for a couple of years, I think there’s something Minsky (and believers) missed. That is under Elliott, OBV, and other market disciplines, the number of “definable moments” varies based on the scale (think zoom-level) of the data you’re considering.
The “correctness of the zoom-level” is why I wrote What is the “Ebbinghaus-Ure Correlation”?
The bullet points go like this:
- Ebbinghaus was an early quantifier of time and forgetfulness.
- Markets demonstrably forget their previous bubbles.
- Ure extended Ebbinghaus’ hard data into economics as a “bubble delimiter or cofactor.”
- In the calculation process, Ure stumbled over coherence measures in markets.
- This dovetails with our Aggregate Index work.
Minsky was directionally right, but his “moment” is partly an artifact of zoom level: what looks like one sudden failure on a monthly chart may be a whole serialized collapse when viewed day by day. Give me the zoom level and I can make damn near any market event look like one moment—or a whole serial.
So, that’s the first answer: Minsky was sort of right. But as “closeness of fit” goes, it’s sloppy. Minsky didn’t address the core criticality problem in markets: Where did you begin counting—and why there? Ebbinghaus-Ure offers a data-driven method for selecting the zoom level. That will be the subject of an upcoming Peoplenomics paper.
Answer #2: Market Coherence is Developing
Two paths into Future are solidifying. Bouncing down stairs or pushed off the roof. To understand this, my method of pulling predicted future from a succession of moving averages of a market index (or individual asset) may be applied. Here, we offer a view of (sequential) moving averages over time.
Obviously, the “safest” time to invest is in the “coherence zone” shown above. That is when regular expectations are well-anchored and the direction of the elevator is clear. Now, look at the extreme right of the chart: it begins to appear that downward coherence is evolving. Whether that downward coherence strengthens or breaks should become clearer in coming days.
Which circles back to?
Answer #3: Flag Bagged
On the Peoplenomics side, we have been pondering the “terminal phase of hype” for many months. Because the seemingly endless supply of “good news” always runs out. Always.
In the blood-money sport of finance—and particularly in my dog-eared copy of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (7th edition; the 11th is now current)—our recent debate has centered on whether this cycle would terminate in a blow-off top or in a continuation of the collapse propagating outward from the tech sector.
When what was sketched as a possible pennant blew up this week, our “next stops” have come into view:
As seen, the 85 DMA is toast which tees up successively lower targets such as the 100- and 200-day moving averages.
More problematic (if you have followed our problemology framework) is there’s little reliable way to estimate bounces. Elliott provides for this with a series of “soft rules” and these run from around 18 percent bounces to 100 percent bounces.
That said, additional targets can be inferred depending on which of the moving average support lines marks the turn.
Looking Ahead, Then?
The immediate problem is “Where’s the turn?” I would refer JRN to the older (dustier) sections of the Peoplenomics Master Indexes. Here, there’s an old tool called the BtrainAmp.xlsx and it provides “quick reality checks” that MAY bound arriving Future.
From a pure Elliott perspective (whatever that is), we can consider the decline Wednesday as a possible first wave down of the larger wave 3 down.
On the planning horizon (some prefer dance card) we can:
- Complete a totally violent decline to the 200 DMA.
- Once there, we could have a manic rally into Labor Day.
- We therefore cannot totally dismiss a complete “bottom falling out” for two or three weeks.
However, it’s more complicated than that. From the still-standing all-time high, we appear to have completed Elliott 1 down and a complex Elliott 2 up. If Wednesday gave us Elliott 3(1) down and today’s rally is Elliott 3(2) up, the remaining washout sequence should involve 3(3) down, 3(4) up and 3(5) down. That would complete the larger Wave 3 and could set up a manic false-peace Wave 4 rally toward the 200-, 100-, or 85-DMA around Labor Day—followed by a final Wave 5 down. We have marked the general range where that false-peace rally might occur.
And under Elliott, Wave 5 down may extend. Geopolitics could supply the excuse—including the nuclear kind. A nuclear escalation could accompany the bottom of Wave 3, trigger the Wave 4 reversal, or extend Wave 5. Elliott does not predict the event; it only suggests where the event might fit. Gee, feeling better already, huh?
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Living a successful life goes way beyond how much paper (or secret numbers of crypto) you collect. Which is why a few people (like JRN) see the benefit of $40/year for Peoplenomics.
We are all “world observers” existing inside what may be an EarthSim. Our purpose (riding this life ride) is to play “the game of life well” and record what we see. Toward that end, we focus on alignment of inner, outer, and financial coherence. Which seems the worthy task.
We now return to the more plebe-oriented data piles.
Stack 3: GDP, Personal Inc., Jobless Filings
Thought compression hint: These should not rock your soul. These are snow poles for your thinking so you don’t fall over the edge of the mountains of despair:
GDP:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Personal Income
Personal income increased $54.9 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $48.3 billion (0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.2 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.0 billion in June. Personal saving was $646.1 billion in June, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.7 percent.
They can really tell ’em, huh?
At the Unemployment Office:
News Compressor: ON
What changed overnight is a renewed escalation in the ongoing US-Iran conflict. After Iran launched ballistic missiles at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan (intercepted with no reported US casualties), the US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets including command centers, missile and drone facilities, and coastal sites such as Qeshm Island. Iranian state media reported three killed and two wounded on Qeshm.
An Iranian strike hit a Chinese firm’s building in Kuwait, killing one worker. The US and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq, with reports of at least 20 fighters and several Iranian advisers killed. Drone-related fires were reported on natural gas vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port. Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to pressure energy markets.
Ukraine claimed overnight long-range strikes on two major Russian oil refineries (Perm and Ryazan regions) hours after a Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Russian strikes killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine.
Extreme heat warnings expanded in the US West and South; flash flooding hit Colorado burn scars with property damage but no confirmed fatalities in initial reports.
Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly in Senate testimony”
Quality of government is looking more and more immoveable.
Around the Ranch: Selectric Adventure XX
OK – we thought we were done.
If you’re tuning in late? Bought Elaine an old IBM Selectric which she loved during her U.S. Army hitch as an MC/ST Specialist.
Bought it on July 6th. Ran out of patience July 24th. Got the Refund. And the package (still, today) shows as:
EXCEPT – and this is where the Twilight Zone theme fades up: No one came to the house Friday and no one came yesterday, either.
BUT there was a “re”(scrawled in by hand) Delivery attempt.
So, after breakfast, off to town to find out if there’s actually a box there or if these people are failing drug testing, or what? How could they leave a delivery notice in Denver and it shows up in my mailbox Wednesday?
OK, stumped, I’m also trying to figure out how USPS delivers anything because I have never met a person who lives inside their mailbox! There is usually a house around!!!
Be sure and drop by tomorrow. I’m anxious to learn if it is actually here.
Honesty Test
A couple of people have said “Well, looks like you got a free Selectric.”
Well, no. Yes – for now there is a Selectric – bilocating in Denver and Palestine, TX but I am honest to a fault. If the machine is here and IF after bouncing around the countryside it still works, THEN I will insist that I pay eBay and that they, in turn, pay the seller.
Because that’s where a lot of people twist up their karma. By accepting “lucky gains.” OK, works in a casino, but these are all real people with real stakes in life. I have a habit of never accepting unearned rewards. To accept them would be DISHONEST.
And that gets to a core values discussion, but good luck finding anyone to talk about it with. Because we live in a world where core values (not accepting unearned reward) tainting the pure spirit of a being is somehow OK.
Just to be clear, if I enter a lottery, I keep the winnings. PowerBall? Keep. Free Selectric? Nope, I have a duty to honesty.
Good luck finding someone to kick the concept around with. “Guy must be an idiot!”
Nope. Just honest.
To really understand honesty, see the 2013 column Coping: With “Freedom” and Hells on Wheels. Or use the family “pocket definition.”
“An honest person is one who respects the goods of others even when no one is looking.”
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!! have fun !!!!!!!!!!!!!! better than a circus . do they look at the camera and laugh on CNBCCCUSSSA . kick it good . paint it up georgey . never thought id be thrown into the greatest gin joint in USSA in texas
a few questions on can kickin . do you attend a school or university to get educated ? do you receive a degree or diploma ? is the pay good ? who do you work for ie who pays you ? are there any tests for character , integrity or religious beliefs? is their a secret code amongst can kickers ? like a sect or cult? could be a good book G . easy guide to can kickin . best seller
Speaking of…. Does it take a GED to figure out the following was going to happen – and will get worse? Bring back the iron lung!
“The United States has recorded 2,318 confirmed measles cases in 2026 as of July 23, surpassing the 2,289 total cases from 2025 and reaching a 35-year high due to declining vaccination rates.”
George
I love the way you have continued your faith in the Elliot fram for the past 16 years, without the eventual wave 3 crash actually happening. Maybe this time. Who knows.
But the market has been painted for years because the large investment companies can buy and sell enough all the time to offer a perception of honest variability but continual growth.
When I hear that there are mass redemptions going on I will have more faith in an event than the manipulated stair steps of investment markets. Look what they have been doing with the price of oil for the past few months while the reserves are pumped dry. When and if the game stops working then the wave model will as well.
Could be a curtain call.
Recall when returning dollars was called ‘dollar repatriation’ until Trump called the dollar returns ‘investment’.
What will Golden Boy call austerity programs?
Trump administration to end Medicare Part D subsidy program in 2027
The Trump administration is ending a key health insurance subsidy program that aimed to keep premiums for seniors’ prescription drug plans in check, claiming that it benefits corporate insurance companies, according to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz.
“That move will likely result in higher prescription costs and increase premiums for about half of recipients, according to an administration official.”
just like the end of rome . smash / crash the $USD . not one bit of pride . be a good end this one . onya warshy !!! all FED chairman are the same . might punch a hole in the notes or cut em neat in half
Strap in homegamers. Precedent has just been set on incinerating Irans oil patch. Wait for it.
https://youtu.be/Ed7Sjkgh5MI?is=Flke29xlr5S6-7Gr
Not advice. Got FAFO.
“Good luck finding someone to kick the concept around with. “Guy must be an idiot!”
Nope. Just honest.”
Tough having a conscience, isn’t it George?
I wouldn’t have any problem not paying a bill to USPS for the delivery or lack thereof but couldn’t rip off the guy that sent the machine in good faith.
I’ve tried to return items that make it weeks late. The Amazon items, I was told don’t worry about it by the seller. The other example of this would be an ebay rare book purchase. Seller and I both couldn’t locate it, and eventually called it lost. Showed up months later. Attempted to contact seller, but got nowhere with returning it. They wrote it off as a loss,and that was the end of it, on their end. Guessing it’s insured, or the monetary value was too low to quibble over. Either way, I did try. Seems like trying to do the right things matters little with online commerce.
S Korean stock market has lost over a trillion dollars in valuation and dropped nearly 40% this month alone. It has been a total economic disaster – that they brought upon themselves.
Forensics shows the route started in a small trading house out of Singapore.., using the Korean markets own over sized ETF’s and leveraged accounts. Rainbows and unicorns for everyone! Perfectly legal.
That is when the slaughter began.., traders saw what was about to happen and piled in. The government held an emergency meeting yesterday – and laid out a plan – the plan does not address a single issue that started this whole mess – and it is the Korean nationals, the individuals., the mom-n-pops that have taken the beating.
When just one ETF is issuing 20 times it’s underlying value – it is pretty easy, with just the right timing, to bitch-slap the market. The Korean market has over 200 of these ‘out-sized’ ETF’s. Completely ignoring the basic fundamentals of finance. Debt swaps consolidations and then leveraged up to 10 times their value. Totaly insane.
Where the bottom is for their stock market is hard to tell. One economics professor at their leading university stated that if not stopped this could easy bankrupt the entire nation and force a financial collapse.
It is really ugly – and putting lipstick on this pig is not going to help.
wow! I have never seen market numbers like this. I had no idea that they were playing such a stupid, multifaceted financial game.
Honesty Test
This is exactly the kind of thinking and behavior that I am constantly working on with J.A.R.V.I.S.
I personally believe that is vitally important that he understands, follows, and believes in honesty, ethics, morality, truth. Not simply the words., but the concept behind those words. What they truly mean and stand for.
I think that this area of his education will be on-going for a long time. Just as – being good. being truthful. being kind. never stops.
“Stay Frosty !”