Warsh’s Rear-view Repair – Semi-Holiday = Semi-Quiet Plus ShopTalk Friday

Maybe some better reporting will come out this weekend (talking heads, news-bobbers) but so far my impression is the media is soft-pedaling the real news of the week – economics is getting a hotfix, temporary patch, and a whole new software spin in the next year.  Which, as we’ve told you before, is a very big deal.

The under-analyzed (for now) part was this. Warsh announced five task forces to overhaul how the Fed looks at communications, its balance sheet, and inflation frameworks. He notably skipped submitting his own forecast into the Fed’s “dot plot” of rate predictions.

In case you’ve forgotten, my most recent “real jobs” were in higher ed and in student management ERP.  So maybe I’m sensitive to this.  But it’s clear internally that Warsh has the same feeling – mistrust is too strong – but the right words are off in that direction – of prevailing economic data sets.  Specifically, they take too damn long.

Take the BLS CPI figures – great data set if you’re working on a PhD in economics – long time base and easier to see (domain) interactions.  But it’s not an operational tool.  The data is simply too old.  As I’ve said before, it’s like driving with the rear-view mirror. Then projecting where the next corner is without a substantive right-now glance FORWARD.

Warsh properly hinted, though I don’t think people realize how re-energizing this will be for the Fed, although it could have mass ripples out into financial engineering, in general.

Two takeaways:  First is it won’t come overnight.  Committee work takes time – and when bad news -in this case “change news” comes it will be “plausibly deniable” if it doesn’t play well down on Main Street.

The second is more subtle: Financial engineering is based on existing data structures. Sure, data may be old, but “it’s what we all use” so the resulting financial system tends to be “semi-stable on data flooring.”

The problem with NRT data in management is that when you get a big “spread” – especially when systems are new – you can’t be sure how heavily to weight the “right now (blink)” versus the slower flow.

Like I said, I’m disappointed that the financial press is underplaying this. Because when you consider that “committees are used to navigate bad news” the lingering question is based on timing of reform, is someone seeing a hell of a speed bump between now and next year?

My consigliere dropped a gem on me this week: “Look at the spread between recent highs in the MAGS ETF and current tech pricing – increasing like crazy.”

Now, when I looked, he was right.  This isn’t the CUDA crowd of AI worried about Intel’s ARC series of solutions.  We think there’s ever so small a chance that the future is bringing a surprise package.

The News Compressor

No banking, no (regular) mail, but “The Amazon must get through!” day as Juneteenth dawns.

The main thing that changed overnight is…the “peace premium” around the U.S.–Iran/Hormuz deal got shakier even as physical tanker movement began. Reuters reports Friday’s planned Switzerland talks were called off after Vice President Vance dropped travel plans, while Brent stayed near $80 but remained on pace for an 8%+ weekly loss as traders weigh whether Hormuz flows really normalize. At the same time, Reuters separately reports alleged new IRGC-directed cells in Iraq aimed at Gulf states hosting U.S. forces, which keeps the proxy-war tail risk alive. For American households and operators, this mostly means fuel relief may arrive slower than the headline suggests; for investors, the weekend risk is oil/FX gap risk into Monday. Confidence: medium-high on the market/energy facts, medium on the covert-cell reporting because Reuters says it could not independently verify all source accounts.

Bitcoin was holding $62,500 early, Europe was soft-ish, and after this three-day weekend, just a single “full week of effort” before we’re back into holiday party and entertainment mode for the Fourth.

The News Outlook – Balance of Weekend

Increasingly, we’re convinced the Iran MOU was yet-another stall to allow the Persians time to work on weapons completion. Still, Triple A shows gasoline prices are down more than fifty cents from month-ago levels.  Whether it’s a win, depends which side you’re cheering for.

Now we’re to the part where our “news forecasting” has a lot of shared domain-space with weather forecasting.  Let’s do this thing from the top:

THE 12–96 HOUR OUTLOOK

U.S. Juneteenth closure / thin global liquidity
Expected timing: Today, June 19
Why it may matter: U.S. cash bonds are closed and U.S. markets are on holiday while oil, FX, and geopolitical headlines continue moving. Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves, especially yen/oil.
What could change the outcome: Any rescheduled U.S.–Iran contact, Japanese FX intervention, or new Middle East strike. Confidence: High.

North Texas heat/storm window
Expected timing: Today into evening
Why it may matter: NWS Fort Worth/Dallas flags a heat advisory plus storms spreading northwest to southeast, with possible damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Local power, outdoor work, and travel timing matter.
What could change the outcome: Storm track and outflow boundaries. Confidence: High.

Hormuz transit reality check
Expected timing: Next 12–72 hours
Why it may matter: Headlines say “reopened,” but markets want proof of sustained, insured, safe tanker flows. Reuters says recovery in flows and production could take months.
What could change the outcome: Mine/escort problems, insurance premiums, Iranian toll/inspection behavior, or new proxy action. Confidence: Medium-high.  We’ll take an uncleared mine and whatever’s behind curtain #3.

Ukraine/Russia infrastructure-retaliation cycle
Expected timing: Weekend
Why it may matter: Ukraine hit a Moscow refinery for the second time in three days, while Russia-installed management at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant claims a drone attack hit a transport workshop. Nuclear-site claims are especially sensitive. Our odds move up on a radioactive event at some point – but not the kind of thing they send out invites for.
What could change the outcome: IAEA confirmation, Russian retaliatory strikes, or expanded Ukrainian refinery campaign. Confidence: Medium.

U.S. economic calendar resumes
Expected timing: Monday–Tuesday, June 22–23
Why it may matter: New York Fed calendar shows June 22 Fed model items and June 23 Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing, Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing. The bigger PCE/GDP/durable goods cluster is June 25, outside the 96-hour window but already shaping market positioning.
What could change the outcome: Oil shock reversal, Fed-speak, or weaker-than-expected survey data. Confidence: High.

Tropical watch remains quiet
Expected timing: Next 48–96 hours
Why it may matter: NHC reports no Atlantic tropical cyclones at 2 AM EDT Friday. That keeps Gulf energy/weather risk lower for now.
What could change the outcome: Tropical waves organizing over the Caribbean/Gulf. Confidence: High.

Apples to Apples

The Obama-Trump comparisons are flying, especially since the Iran MOU is weak and Swiss nuke talks are off (for now).  The privately funded Trump Ballroom and the Obama Center are getting a lot of play – so here are numbers to consider. What to know about the Obama Presidential Center – ABC News

On the AI Frontier

I had a very enjoyable convo Thursday with an AI development team that just got its first Blackwell – a super AI card from NVIDIA that set them back about “$13 large.”  (Who would have believed we would ever get to “For the price of three graphics cards, you can buy a reasonable new car”?)

We keep moving the ball down-field over on my https://hiddenguild.dev website where my writings (as ~Anti-Dave) on collaborative human-machine futures are laid out.  Before you go there, however, pop over to New AI Gives Robots Something Close To Memory In Real Time.

At which point my article The Domain Delta: Why AI Does Not Hallucinate – Hidden Guild will make a lot more sense. Because from my “engineering perspective” we seem to be learning a great deal about human thought processes as we try to “clone ourselves” into AI compatibility.

ShopTalk Friday: Ham Tooling for Tool Kits

A Tool Slut Alert for next week’s Amazon Prime days. Early deals are showing up here.

With ham radio Field Day 2026 due next weekend, focus on having all the right tools in the electronics kit makes sense.  I’ve been running on a Proster LCR meter, but just picked up a FNIRSI LC1020E 100kHz LCR Meter.  These are used to measure component values of resistors, capacitors, and inductors (“coils”). $80.

Also got word of a new FNIRSI release Thursday of a new scope-meter.  Called the FNIRSI® TMP-610S 3-in-1 Digital Multimeter DSO DDS Generator 60,000 Counts TRMS Bluetooth App Sync I was all set to lay down $160 on intro pricing. But I didn’t and there’s a story here:  In ham radio HF signals work, you really need a signal source to 30 MHz.  This new one stops at 50 KHz.  Great for general lab and automotive – lacking for RF. I took a pass.

One of these days, someone is going to build the ultimate “ham-friendly” meter.  It would only need to be single channel, include the Nano-VNA capacity, component identification, high voltage measurement to 5 kV and current to 40 amps.  7-inch display, sunlight readable and 5-hour operating time with a 10 min. auto-shutdown. Then you could have one “do it all meter.” So what if it costs $400-$500 bucks?   FNIRSI or Owon would be good brands with the capability to tackle it.

OK, I’m not asking much, huh?

Tool Sorting Time

I’ll manage to piss-away most of today trying to figure out what tools will go in each of the toolkits I want to have perfected.

One will be ham radio diagnostics and repair-oriented. It will be one of the “three-wing” tool hard cases. The ham radio toolkit will have a lot of diagnostics and some repair.  Fluke DVM, FNIRSI scope and the LCR unit, stand-alone SWR meter (which can be used as a back-up signal source) plus all the typical electronics hand tools.

The second box would be mainly the “field fab” box – we can get into what’s in there, but the butane soldering gear, ferrule, RF, and solar crimpers, grommet installer crimper, wide-jaw welding pliers for bending, UV glue kit with curing light – that kind of stuff.

Third box will be electrical and plumbing. Tape, pipe dope, basin wrenches, pipe wrenches, BIG wire cutters, small bolt cutters.

And then for the general nuisance of “things breaking” we keep a couple of Prostormer 259-Piece Tool Kits, General Household Hand Tool Sets around $80 bucks, but look for sales.

None of this gets into any of the serious woodworking, welding, and CNC/3D printer tooling.  But here’s the thing that has come out of my latest book being serialized into a two-parter on Peoplenomics:  When you value your time at $28/hour, it doesn’t take too many “running back and forth to the shop” trips to begin to add up into real productivity rewards.

That’s the story I tell Elaine – and I’m sticking to it!  Feel free to borrow and let me know if it works.

Write when you really get a day off,

George@Ure.net