Trump’s “Oasis Problem” – Early Data Points Higher – Next Book Release

Sure, we will get to “the financials” in a moment, but I think the bigger story is a lot more complicated from the systems perspective than a few hit-and-run headlines.

The Oasis Problem

I have no idea how far you “domain walk” potential futures, but such lines of inquiry are especially useful on days when “Peace is at Hand!” are writ large in the rubber-stamp media. We tend toward a deeper review.

Our focus this week is on how ancient templates – governing human conduct around oasis water sources – may be scaling up – to the international-player level.  Because behind the headlines, if you’ve followed, there is a “soft admission” that there are two cornerstones to regional evolution out in Dry Gulch: oil and water.

So far, only minor desal plant damage has blown up out of the regional conflict.  But, it’s worth a few minutes to consider what “proper oasis conduct” is.

Around the old oasis systems, water was not treated like just another commodity. It was survival law. In many Middle Eastern tribal and oasis settings, the first claim was usually drinking water for people, then water for animals, and only after that came irrigation, gardens, and commercial use. That does not mean everyone loved everyone else. It means the desert made a hard bargain: deny a man or his animals water today, and tomorrow the whole region may be in feud.

The practical arrangements were often handled by custom rather than by modern paperwork. A tribe, clan, family, or village might control a well, spring, falaj, or qanat, but access was regulated by elders, water masters, local sheikhs, or inherited usage rights. Irrigation water was commonly divided by turns: so many hours, so many nights, or so many openings of the sluice. The flow itself became the clock. In some systems, sundials, stars, or fixed local measures were used to decide whose field got water and when.

When scarcity hit, the protocols tightened. Strangers, caravans, and even rivals might still be allowed enough water for thirst and animals, because that was both custom and self-preservation. But lingering, watering large herds, or taking irrigation water could require permission, payment, alliance, escort, or negotiation. In other words, oasis water was shared enough to prevent immediate death, but rationed hard enough to preserve ownership, honor, and future survival. When those customs failed, the next protocol was feud.

Scale that up and the oasis is no longer a spring in the sand. It is Hormuz, desalination, tanker insurance, aquifers, ports, and who gets to keep the pumps running when the shooting stops. If it all blows up?  Then you’d be looking at one of the largest and (potentially) most lethal forced migrations in world history.

Water control is power. Iran just proved it.

Two Unsolved Problems Before Friday

President Trump is at the G7 today, and he’s planning to attend the advertised Friday signing. Live updates: US-Iran war, Trump and Tehran reach agreement as G7 summit starts | CNN

The deal may solve the shooting schedule before it solves the oasis protocol. In old oasis practice, you could let a rival drink without letting him control the well. That is the exact regional problem: oil routes, desalination plants, ports, pipelines, aquifers, and Hormuz access are not just “economic issues.” They are the modern equivalent of who gets to draw water, when, under whose authority, and with what enforcement.

Already, we are seeing skepticism about the plan – which doesn’t key on nukes. Israelis denounce Trump’s deal with Iran – The Washington Post and Obama slams Trump Iran deal saying it is ‘doubtful’ it improves on his own agreement.  Not just Israel, or democrats that don’t want Trump putting on the “peacemaker” mantle ahead of mid-terms.  You know this “Oasis problem” will weigh on every single water-dependent state and emirate in the region.

PTO (Personal Take-Out) from the “systems view”? We are perhaps being more than a bit paranoid here, but the other “half-problem” is the Ukraine war is still ongoing, as well.

Given that the “seers and prophecy” people have expressed reservations about this period (around Trump’s birthday) we’d be happier with Trump on home soil.  “Belief Wave” followers taking markers higher is a likely lock as long as the “edging of the future” remains clean.  

Markets Retrace Higher

Early market futures were higher on the “deal” talk in the M.E.  But we still can’t be certain which holiday will get to act as the “finishing high water mark.” Your choices are Juneteenth which falls on Friday this week (markets, fedgov, most state offices, will be closed).  Then it’s only a couple of weeks to the Fourth.  And let’s not forget that in 1929 the high water was kissed going into Labor Day.

Ahead of the Fed Decision Wednesday, we notice that the CME FedWatch Tool was still showing only a 2.3 percent chance of a rate cut. Frankly, we see it the other way.  With inflation and PPI coming in hot, the case is there for a rate increase, not a decrease.  Plan a Fed decision after lunch Wednesday.

Back in the here and now, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing just dropped:

“After posting strong growth last month, business activity increased modestly in New York State in June, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index remained positive but fell fourteen points to 5.7. New orders and shipments both moved higher, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and supply availability continued to worsen. Employment expanded for a fifth consecutive month, as did the length of the average workweek. The pace of input price and selling price increases remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms maintained a fairly optimistic outlook for business activity.”

That just sealed the deal (for our bet): Rate cut odds are right up there with a long-life Popsicle in hell.

And shortly the Fed will post Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization over here.  Leaving us with (other than some mid-morning Housing data) markets likely to work higher, pull back, but higher into the close. (We’re penciling a higher open into tomorrow’s open, too, provided no black swans appear.)

News Compressor

Reader note: I’m making this a simple “scan for the News Compressor headline.” This avoids the news overflow noise and rolls right to change vectors. Got it?

The main thing that changed overnight is that markets got a relief excuse from lower oil and deal talk, but the actionable board did not get simpler: Fed week still carries inflation risk, Ukraine is back in the G7 foreground, Texas has a real rain/flood watch problem rather than a named storm problem, and the cyber patch clock has shortened. In plain English: enjoy the oil-relief bounce if it shows up, but the household/operator checklist is still fuel, weather, patches, and Fed-watch.

Blink Lab News Drill down

Which is where we scan for significant change in the world’s trajectory into the future. Seven things rated useful to know:

Oil relief trade is on, but normalization is not instant. Crude fell hard on the Hormuz-reopening framework, but insurance, shipping, stockpile rebuilding, and verification remain lag points. Confidence: high.

Fed week is now a “hold but listen hard” event. Markets expect the Fed to hold Wednesday, but the risk field has shifted from “cuts soon” toward “inflation still has teeth,” especially with input-price pressure showing in regional manufacturing. Confidence: high.

U.S. industrial data are live in a few minutes. Expect utilization still below long-run norms. Fed G.17 shows total industry utilization around 76.1%, below the long-run average cited in the release context. That argues “not capacity boom,” even if some price pressure is hot. Confidence: medium-high.

Ukraine moved back onto the G7 risk board. Russia’s latest large strike package hit Kyiv/Kharkiv and damaged a major religious/cultural site; Zelenskyy is pushing for more air defense and attempted a Putin-meeting frame around the G7. Confidence: high.

Texas weather is a practical household/operator story here. NHC shows no named Atlantic cyclone, but WPC and regional reports flag excessive-rain risk tied to Gulf moisture/front interaction, especially South/Central Texas and coastal areas. Confidence: high.

Cyber patch tempo is accelerating. CISA’s new posture pushes federal critical-vulnerability remediation toward three-day windows; Microsoft’s June patch load and active-exploit additions make this a “patch now, not someday” week. Confidence: high.

Health risk is not one monster… but crowd disease and measles remain live. CDC measles count remains elevated and outbreak-associated; Reuters says Ebola risk for World Cup importation is very low, while measles/COVID/flu are the more practical mass-gathering concerns. Confidence: high.

Note to Son G2:

Yes – a note to my son George2 with his north of 2,000 jumps, base jumper, instructor and so forth:

12 dead following Missouri skydiving plane crash.

When your number comes up… That story lands differently when your kid has lived half his adult life around parachutes, drop zones, and risk envelopes.

ATR: Timenamics: The OTHER Currency Book Due

I have been proofreading like a mad man (which isn’t a stretch, now, is it?) working on the book.  Plans got nailed Sunday to release the first half of the book free for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  That’s the 17th – two days out.

Provided the world remains on track, the second half should post on the 24th.

Writing and research (along with office cleaning) occupied most of the weekend though I turned on the ham radio for a quick “tune across 20-meters” which was less than inspiring.

A New Ham Radio “Thing”

Here is a useful technique you may wish to try if you’re a “used ham gear eBay addict.”

You know how you will often see a piece of gear that “looks like it will belong in the collection” but you don’t really need it, per se?

It occurred to me that a lot of classic radios get listed but no one grabs the BIN (buy it now) price.  Here’s the point: Sunday I spied a Hallicrafters H-44 transmitter (I have two) but having replacement parts from a working radio is always a good thing.  So I dropped in an offer – just ahead of the close) with a note to the seller saying something like “I’m not trying to offend you with a low-ball bid, but if you don’t catch a bid into the close – and you don’t want to go through the hassle of relisting and playing more of the waiting game, here’s a standing offer good past the close.”

It worked. And honestly, with a pretty solid psychological basis.  In sales, which is one of my core “guru” areas there’s a great “sales method” called the Sandler approach.  Here’s how it works.

Bonding & Rapport — get equal business stature; not begging, not pitching.
Up-Front Contract — agree on what the conversation is for, how long it takes, and what happens at the end.
Pain — uncover the real problem, then deepen it: cost, frustration, risk, lost opportunity, personal consequence.
Budget — find whether money/resources exist to fix the pain.
Decision — find who decides, how they decide, and when.
Fulfillment — only now present the solution, directly tied to the pain/budget/decision facts.
Post-Sell — reinforce the decision and prevent buyer’s remorse.

So when I presented my offer to the seller, I explained (let him touch) the pain (PITA) of relisting something that doesn’t sell.  In this case, it worked. It’s something to think about, particularly when buying gear from a ham who is “aging out of the hobby”.

I just happen to be fortunate that I’ve got an extra class licensed son who will benefit from my “Radio Museum” idea for a vacation destination.

Which brings us back to the oasis rule: when resources get scarce, pain clarifies decisions.

OK, showers from that rainy patch moving up from the RGV, so let’s go kick Monday’s ass and see you tomorrow for coffee and painkillers.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net