A Quick Fuure “Re-sort”

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The manic/stupid rally in the market today was incomprehensible to me. I put on the data hat.

  • Charlie Kirk gets killed – killer gets away (only for now)
  • Shit for CPI – and the EU held rates not expecting inflation to pass until 2027.

OK, why the rally?

In some FU/screwy way did the Kirk killing put on lock on lower Fed rates?  That insane!  But here’s an AI take on it:

“Heading into Wednesday’s Fed decision-September seventeen, right?-it’s looking like a slam-dunk for a twenty-five basis point cut, odds at ninety-eight percent per futures markets. Why? That lousy jobs report we talked about-only twenty-two thousand added in August, unemployment four point three-has everyone yelling recession, even with CPI stubborn at four point two. Powell’s crew wants to ease without spooking inflation further, especially Trump’s tariffs looming like a storm. Posts on X? Traders are hyped but jittery: doves like Waller pushing neutral stance soon, maybe more cuts by year-end if data softens. ECB’s hold keeps global sync off, but US focus is all labor softness overriding the rest. My read? They’ll hint at one more cut December, but if Kirk protests explode, expect dovish vibes cranked-could surprise with fifty basis points if chaos hits.”

A little clearer take from a different AI:

“Other AI chatter on the Kirk killing with the Fed decision looming leaned toward hype: slam-dunk twenty-five basis point cut, odds at ninety-eight percent, traders jittery, and even speculation about a surprise fifty if protests explode.

That makes for colorful copy, but it overshoots the data. Here’s the reality check. September 17 is the meeting date, and the CME FedWatch tool really does show roughly ninety-five to ninety-eight percent odds of a quarter-point cut.

Drivers are weak August jobs (twenty-two thousand added, unemployment at four point three) against still-sticky inflation (CPI at two point nine year-on-year, with a 0.4 percent monthly print). The Fed wants to ease without reigniting inflation, and tariffs are a real wild card.

The ECB held rates today, leaving Frankfurt and Washington slightly out of sync. The Kirk killing, tragic and politically volatile, looks like a background variable for Powell’s crew. Historically, markets often dip and then rebound after violent shocks like JFK, MLK, or the Reagan attempt.

A 50-basis-point surprise would require extraordinary disruption, not just protests. More likely: a 25-point trim, language that acknowledges labor softness, and a careful signal that another move is possible in December if weakness persists. In other words, keep the hype in perspective—political messaging risk is real, but the Fed’s decision remains anchored in the hard labor-inflation data.”

While the manhunt continues, we are also tracking the 1929 replay angle. History doesn’t repeat, but the rhythm echoes… The 1929 market blow-off came September 3rd and it was downhill from there.  We’re eight-days late, but the way (and reasons) for lower are just as strong.

Remember, as we have been saying: The Fed lowering rates will not build a single new factory.  What it will do is puff up the IPOs and markets.

Maybe that (and the cartel war messaging?) is the bigger play to keep in mind.

More as the gunpowder of present lifts,

~Ure

11 thoughts on “A Quick Fuure “Re-sort””

  2. Warfare..
    Kowledge –
    Economic warfare against 250 years of British control over American institutions. They enforce imperial dominance through subversion and perpetual wars. Conflicts in ukraine and ME serve British imperial interests by preventing COOPERATION.

    U cannot fight bestial savagery, bottomless evil and abominable stupidity with well-fated debates.
    Are you a special kind of stupid or what ?
    And yes, center right are Ure pawns in this game…let THEM fight first..lets see how tough they really are.

    * Wait by the river long enough..
    you will see Ure enemy’s float by. SZ

  3. I wouldn’t work a “cartel angle” on the Kirk assassination, just yet.

    The people who seem to be celebrating his demise are the same ones who cheered CANDIDATE Trump’s shooting. There was no “cartel angle” or “Ukrainian angle” at that point in time.

    Mr. Trump has more than twice the support from young’uns (18-26yos), especially young men, as any Republican in my memory. Mr. Kirk and TPUSA are solely and singularly responsible for this level of his popularity amongst da kiddies. A person, group, or organization, bent on the destruction of the USA (or formation of the USSA) would find this level of “interference” intolerable. Were said group indifferent toward violence, political assassinations would certainly not be above their consideration.

    The TikTok message foretelling the shooting is deeply disturbing. It reads like it came from a smarmy kid, not a worldly soldier or merc…

  4. (it’s looking like a slam-dunk for a twenty-five basis point cut, odds at ninety-eight percent per futures markets. Why? That lousy jobs report we talked about-only twenty-two thousand added in August,)

    I never quite understood how rates can be cut lower than zero lol . why not just give money to everyone to spend lol lol.. the deficit is already upside down so truly what harm would it be.. lol lol lol. oh that’s right.. the business model of stuff big buck Billie’s pockets lol lol

    • They do just give the money to everyone, the Banks that is.(tribal thing)

      Its big bucks Schlomo, not Billy.

      Billy be struggling just like the rest of us.

      Here is an idea – follow Ure bubbi Yellen – she was often quoted about Investing being one of sure ways to financial independence. All the financial pundits say same thing..INVEST, even its just Pennies.

      Did you see AG (First Majestic) today ? Finally broke out, and might have broke me into a new tax bracket..whoops. Gonna have to figure how roll these gains into 2026 – like looong dated Calls. BTG – another “penny” stock is breaking out as I type.

      All I can say is – dont FORGET URE QTRLY TAX Payment, they be broker than ever nowadays and will be motivated to TAKE Ure MONEY.

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