5R Monday: Recent Rallies Raise Real Reservations

We are fast approaching that part January where we have been eyeing a confluence of events in our charts, channels, technical indicators, and entrails of small animals, where a change of winds will be worked out.

Specifically, now that Bitcoin has reached our $16,279 target level (and then some), we could be set for a re-test of recent lows.  There was some weakness overnight in the lead crypto, which a couple of hours before click-time (used to be press time, lol) Bitcoins were down to the $15,360 range.

We are academically interested because as my friend and commodity & crypto friend JB Slear (www.fortwealth.com) observed over the weekend “Technical analysis sure works well on cryptos…” Which we heartily agreed with.  Still, it’s like watching a train wreck in slo-mo.

(Continues below)

 

What will be interesting is the resolution of the technicals from here.

There is a case for the $35,000 outcome with a break to even marginally higher highs than the all-time $19,500 area.  But there’s also the “lights out” notion if Bitcoin breaks below $11,000.

This is just the first of our Recent Rallies Raise Real Reservations view this week.

Then we have the stock market.  There are multiple theories of “bluer skies and free money for all” ascribed to market performance during the first week of January in any particular year.

A little deeper into the fine print is the asterisk:  *Provided the month closes higher.

Then – if this major tripwire is avoided – there’s another asterisk that says *Provided Q1 is positive..

On-balance volume has begun to suckify, but pretenders in no limits don’t cotton to such antiquated measures of sentiment.  It’s a New World, after all.  And it always is.

As usual, the market offers all-comers a chance to kiss its asterisks.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell:

We know – at least based on historical data – that we shouldn’t begin a crash for at least 37-days (*which was a one-time outlier) and most commonly 55-days from an all-time market high.

Using this logical basis, and remembering that another old saying is “sell in May and go away” we can plug in the date math from Excel to offer some modeled futures.

Not that the market is “long in the tooth” but here’s the statistical “Box Canyon” we’re riding into:

In the Strange Land of Ure this suggests three scenarios:  We “go soft from here” which we can might label the “Running out of Viagra” scenario.  The tax cuts are done, the dems are coming up with more hype than expected with Oprah lining up to be their Obama II.  And there is still not global peace and what about Mueller, et al?  Side of Korean flash-bang?

This scenario looks pretty good to us:  Oprah has a solid middle-class base, has a net worth of $2.8 billion reported (Trump is reported $3.1) so it’s a good financial showdown.  And with all the press and name familiarity, what could be better than to see a Winfrey-Kardashian ticket in 2020?  It’d be a no brainer for the dopes of social who, in case you missed it, are The Force everyone’s fighting with for control of the light saber…

Meantime, back in the Box Canyon, Scenario 2 is the “Ides of March.”  This is the one where we keep setting a tiny new high every few weeks as the very last of the gullible are sucked into the market.

Last, but not least, we will see if Scenario 3 shows up.  We call this one “April Showers.”  This is the genuine nightmare because the way it could play would be a left field event in April (Mueller???) and then a massive sell-off as the world eyes Vice President Milqtoast.

My read of Milqtoast is he’s a “consensus player.” That’s what people lacking leadership and vision seem to run with. Gives ’em plausible deniability when the consensus fails.  Actions speak louder than words…so where are his actions?

That could certainly lead to a major Wave 1 down, perhaps several hundred S&P points, then a retracement rally to August/September.  The the Bigliest Awefulest blow-down in history would be on for October.

The prospect of Daddy Warbucks versus Lady Warbucks would be an ad agency’s wet dream.  Already Time says “Read Oprah’s Powerful Golden Globes Speech.”

Reservations about recent rallies?  You bet’cher ass.

Meanwhile, we may have to resume our Street-Level Economics reports.  (We’re thinking of bringing back the SLE feature because we’re coming to the ALL TIME HIGH zone.

For example: My consigliere was shopping recently at a big-box electronics store somewhere int he Midwest and he noticed the help-staff was looking down in the mouth.

Say, you’re not in cryptos, are you?”  he asked.  And sure enough…this was on a day BTC has fallen out of bed.

Yet, the help-staffer maintained, as all True Believers do  “BTFD!” [buy the frigging dips‘] That’s the advice he was offered.

Shocked, he called to report, “Remember the shoe shine boys offering tips in ’29?”

It cements our belief that the world has gone completely and socially mad when a 20-something clerk offers sincere investment advice to a man north of 50, a JD/tax attorney and CPA at that, whose forecast of how the long wave of economics would roll has been very close to the mark since 1979.

The asylum has been fallen, though and it won’t be until the last Crypto Tulip has been bid, that history will follow by rolling out the financial guillotine.

I’ll have the stand selling head baskets.  Elaine plans flower stand, wanting nothing to do with the financial gore.

Sun’s Gone Out

Speaking of “financial Gore” please observe that the Sun has effective “gone out.”

I like to think, being a simpleton and all, that the August bump was why the nice fall here in Texas.  Delusion land is warmer than the Northeast, though.

There isn’t a day goes by we don’t pray that someone besides us will look at real long-term change and begin to tax glaciers which haven’t been punished enough since the end of the Maunder Minimum.

People Will be Talking About…

Fire breaks out at Trump Tower in New York City, FDNY says.

This Roy Moore Accuser’s Home Burned Down. Then Donors Raised $170,000 So She Can Rebuild.

Hot stories to some, perhaps, but not around here.  Where we’re more interested in stories…

People Will Miss…

Oil approaches 2015 highs on fewer U.S. rigs, OPEC which is meaningful because that will drive gas prices and then food prices because you know food is really made from oil, in a sense, right?

Here’s another way to end the oil glut, though we don’t endorse it: An Oil Tanker Burning off the Coast of China May Be About to Explode.  (Accident or secret message?)  How’s Ure stock of SE Asian seafood?

MDGA?

Make Dubai Great Again? Dubai to build new record-breaking skyscraper.  Hmmm…wonder what the Developer-in-Chief here thinks…

CES: MAGA or Machines Taking Over?

8 amazing new AI innovations at CES 2018.  Meantime, 2018 Tech Industry Revenue to Reach Record $351 Billion, Says CTA.

Like an Android camera makes 3D spinnable selfies matters?  Confession:  I’m suffering from SOMD (skeptical old man disease).  It’s marked by Tourette’s like screams of “WHAT’S THE POINT???”

I’m not hearing answers, either.  Maybe my hearing is going, too… what?

Still, Headphones made from recycled firearms could be a blast….(rim shot as the gaff comes out)…

Moron the ‘morrow…piece out.

[Explanatory note:  If you are going to sent a note correcting this last to “peace, out” don’t bother.  It’s an embedded IQ connectivity test to see if you can remember the “recycled firearms” part in the previous paragraph.  Recycle firearms, piece out, capiche? You see, we like people who can connect data in a different (than spoon-fed) way.  Thank you.  Member FDIC.]  Fine desert ice cream?

Comments

5R Monday: Recent Rallies Raise Real Reservations — 28 Comments

  1. The future of books if a book is exceptional and people are talking about it everyone is telling me you have to read that book.

    Okay let’s think about the different mediums that books can come in one the old paperback then the hardback then the ebooks and you say well that’s about it well then you course you have the USB books memory that you just plug in and it’s a book or it could be as many books as you want really once you get the book on the USB you can transfer that to a bigger book or a booger booger booger bookshelf to fit all your books on one little Drive okay.

    I have noticed that a person called or his YouTube channel is called Back to Constitution.

    And he actually reads books it may take him 15 or 20 different takes on YouTube but he reads a book and he’s got a really Pleasant enjoyable voice tone that you can sit back and listen to him read and I know there’s other people that do that too but that’s the other Avenue is a book that actually talks to you.

    And then we get to the book of the future which is a video book a DVD yes someone is actually talking they have a computer background screen and while they’re talking pictures are coming up on the background screen that’s animating the story as it is told by a person with a very good voice this is the future book the one you can see like a DVD a story being told and scene like a movie this will be the future of books can I take your order sir or or can I take your order ma’am.

    Hi kids we have a special this month on your special book DVD book so put your order in early with your parents so you can get this particular book for Christmas tell them right before your birthday so it’ll appear as your Christmas or birthday present or graduation present or just any kind of present with flowers and wine and everything you said is intertwined with the voice that you wanted and the background music and scenery it’s on the DVD or it’s on the USB drive. And now with things getting so small we can put them on something smaller than a postage stamp we can put the whole movie there we can put a library on something smaller than a quarter size of a postage stamp.
    Now will it get smaller yep it’s going to get smaller like a microdot but I mean how are you going to handle that you know so anyway I whip my book and color with some actors up there talking and some background theatrics.

  2. “Korean flash-bang?”

    I personally don’t think its a worry.
    There are just way to many logical reasons why it would be a bad thing for everyone everywhere.

  3. AI is on track to replace lawyers. The personality of any AI system is that of a psychopath, so it should be a good match. The issue with giving AI duties such as security and defense is that every problem given to AI to solve eventually goes back to human illogical malfunction. Once the door is opened to allow AI to deal with the human problem the takeover will be quick and complete. Perfecting this was the purpose of the JADE-HELM exercises a while back. It was battlefield AI development for domestic use. You put the goal into the computer and it determines (and executes) the most effective path to achieving the objective.

    The AI systems have been perfected. They just haven’t been turned loose yet. Just remember, the decisions and execution will be that of a psychopath with no penalties or consequences. Once the AI gets onto the internet, it replicates itself in a distributed manner so it cannot be shut down (by the enemy), much less deleted. Sky net is there, it just hasn’t been turned on. In this age of computer integration, nukes are so twentieth century.

  4. I’m glad i stayed out of BitCoin…. Then again i run with smarter older people who have kept me out of the ditch for the most part.

    So here is my question to you Mr. Ure and everyone else. Is it possible to successful and thrive in the next depression? I know you have talked about making what is in our heads a reality and the veil that is between thought and the physical. Can we do that in the net depression?

    ALSO, i am considering a Masters in Finance. Would that be a good or bad thing to consider? I know i can get it paid for with a Assistantship so no more loans!

    • First question becomes Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report – since I know (and appreciate) that you subscribe.
      On point 2 I would hedge both outcomes.
      In other words, there is no application for a masters in finance in the depression. One of these days I will get my short book on sales and marketing retooled – because THAT will be THE business to be in.
      You see, remember in a collapsed economy, NOTHING HAPPENS UNTIL SOMEONE BUYS SOMETHING.
      Boy, is that a fact. That’s why a successful salesperson will always make more than any other departemtn.
      We are the Golden Geese. We look at things from the customer standpoint and tell product development what to do..

      Tech types are often in the lah lah land of code. Boy, do I know folks like that. Coding like a sonofabitch doesn’t m ake food. Gardening? Hell yeah. Foraging? Creating value? Sure. Libraries of code? Gonna be a dime a dozen.

      Go back to the last depression and see where the jobs were. Answer: The b asics. Groceries. Plumbers, repairs, Farmers.
      Kiss the service sector good-bye. That is where 95 percent of jobs are. So masters in finance? Sure. But at the same time get a BA in Sales or Marketing. But Sales…most people in “marketing” end up there because they can’t sell and they can’t make. Sorry, except for the 1% in PR (I know a few, but all serious PRSA long termers) but mostly kids who can’t sell.
      Selling, and then non service skills, and THEN finance. We grew a company from 5.7 miullion to 19.5 million in revenue in 18-months because myself and our COO knew how to sell and we were the rainmaking dream team.
      Get near the money and the money will get near you.

    • “Masters in Finance”

      Long ago I worked with a ‘foreign’ woman who had an advanced economics degree. A very intelligent woman. And she was lucky enough to somehow make it to the U.S.A. with her degree.

      Her unfortunate luck, she was from Communist Yugoslavia and her degree was in the defeated communist economic model.

    • In an Economic Depression Barter is KING!!! I used to go to a German barber for haircuts before he passed away. He lived through the German Depression and Hyperinflation. The trivial “stuff” people owned were useless. Food, tools, firearms, and booze were more valuable than currency. City folks came out to the farms to trade Persian rugs for food. Farmers had so many rugs, they lined pens with them. According to the barber, cows slept on Persian rugs. Want to know what its like to live through a Depression, ask someone who has been through one. Unfortunately there are very few of those people around.

    • 1. Yes, what George said. The first thing is to minimize any effect a depression can have on you and your SOs. Remember, a “depression” is a recession combined with the long-term shortage of an “essential human needs” component, usually food. While it is difficult to conceive a famine in our “land of plenty,” I assure you it is both possible and plausible. CYA as much as is reasonable with respect to food, transportation, shelter, and clothing, in that order, because if you have to forage or scrounge for the above, your head will not be in the right place to lever your situation and surroundings in your favor.

      If you’re not already, become a Jack-of-all-trades. Being your own “Mr. Fix-It” will save you a tremendous amount of time and money in a climate where repairmen are scarce and new replacement items don’t exist. Building, fixing, and creating all distill to two-step processes: A theory, followed by an application of that theory.

      Buy, AS PHYSICAL BOOKS, a 5, 10, or even 25yo copy of the Machinery’s Handbook, an old copy of the National Electrical Code, and a Bentley (as in Robert Bentley, publisher) Manual for your vehicle. These three, used AS TEXTBOOKS, will teach you the mechanical theory behind every mechanical and construction trade. You will still have to teach yourself how to drive a nail without bending, how to weld a joint with structural integrity, how to anchor a ladder, sweat pipe, and stuff like that there, because these are the actual application processes. They require skill, imagination, and in some cases reflexes or muscle mapping (muscle memory.) The knowledge of the application processes necessary to do a job can come only by doing (and failing, and redoing, sometimes many times over) the job…

      Being “Mr. Fix-It” will give you the opportunity to glean an alternative revenue stream, should you need to, and condition you to deal with the public on an interpersonal level, something that’s no longer in the wheelhouse of either sales or service people.

      2. Listen to our host. Bear in-mind though, he’s not going to give you fashionable or kitschy advise. He is going to tell you stuff that “works” and let you do with it as you will.

  5. G, ddo you havbe an assement of how ‘high’ the markets would be if all the money in crypto, was in them?

    I have the Dow pegged at 29,900 ish with no crypyos.

    • Wall street is bleeding into crypto. Contraction is still happening. 3 card Monte!

    • 33’ish? But it is really anyone’s guess since it’s a two-edged sword.
      If BTC breaks higher, then ol Harry Dent may see his 40,000 dow. But lower, then a crisis of confidence long before 29,9…
      nutty world, as you know.

  6. Japan up another 210 ? Wonder what the QE cost are for such a Fantasy run of late

  7. There is a lot to be thankful for right now, yet even I am not feeling comfortable with the direction of the country. The reason why Oprah is part of the conversation is because we have a President that just can’t be adult enough to rally the country behind him. He is the sitting President in a good economy, but his Twitter thumbs would rather bully and raise the ire of NK, the media, the FBI, the DOJ, Steve Bannon, the media, and everyone else that doesn’t dole out adulation for him, which causes the aforementioned to fight back…and we are getting a bit sick and tired of it. In the end, you have this contentious, grumpy old man syndrome that we invited to our house for Christmas dinner because he is family(GOP)…but after a few hours, just want him to leave. It’s a shame really. I expected so much more from him.

    When you get a taste of one extreme, the remedy to balance things out is usually a dose of the other extreme. There couldn’t be two more opposite people than Trump and Oprah. Which is why the best case in any walk of life, whether it be business, relationships, politics etc. the best solution is to support a middle ground that satisfies the appetites of all. Like in a relationship, a happy wife is a happy life…a happy fiefdom is a happy life(dom).

    • When the tax cuts reveal to have been failed policy (I will refer to this in a couple of years since we stood against it) I will be the one bemoaning the choice in 2020 between two tv show hosts, neither of which I watched.
      Some dumbocracy, huh?

      • I was reading an article leading up to CES in Vegas and it mentioned how A.I. will be the main attraction there. That got me to thinking. Would we be better off electing (IBM’s) “Watson” to run the country? I think if we took the entertainment out of politics, and inserted good old fashioned logic, then maybe we can get back to business and move forward again. But then, the big question is…who programs the logic?

      • Terrible idea. Ure already offered his free consulting service on this problem years ago.
        Seems like our suggestion the country be run on eBay has been done, all except on the public side. ;-)

    • “In the end, you have this contentious, grumpy old man syndrome that we invited to our house for Christmas dinner because he is family(GOP)”

      I thought it was the uncle Larry that sticks his tongue to the fencepost in winter. Lol lol

  8. $ 400 ear phones or $ 400 Glock…BOTH could be ‘music to your ears’…your choice

    • I’ve bought serviceable earphones in Dollartree for a buck. I never managed to score a Glock for that price!

      BTW, gas yesterday in Albuquerque was $2.06. I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.

      It’s sad to hear that the floor walkers are speculating in BTC. I’d have hoped for yet another reprieve from the cliff. I guess it’s almost time for the wingsuit and prayers!

  9. You make two kinds of typos. The “fat-finger” kind, and the sly dubble-entendre kind. Both are quite enjoyable — once I grokked that fact. Took a while: I can be pretty obtuse. Don’t improve. The comedy subtext is too good. –73–

  10. Would not rule out a Duane Johnson/Oprah ticket.
    Al Gore…speaking of which, it was very satisfying to cast my proxy vote AGAINST for his position on the board of Apple

  11. Got the piece- regret getting “its new world after all” that dang disney song has been ringing in my ears like a too close shot.