Schedule Note: Before we get into actual content, a word about schedules around here.
This morning’s report will be (blissfully) short and on point.
No Peoplenomics report tomorrow and the normal Saturday report will not be posted until about noon Sunday. After almost 68-years, I’m trying to kick-it this week.
I’ll be back to my usual long-winded, arrogant and snarfy self next week after I recover a few of the pounds that the Oatmeal Diet has taken off. Now, where were we?
Does The Past Hint at the Future?
There are a million and one different ways to look at the future. Some people evolve intricate computer models, looking at shifting linguistics and pronounce likely outcomes. Others simply light up a doobie, get out into space-between-the-ears and integrate lots of inputs from a variety of sources. In place of cannabis, you can join the Oracle at Delphi and get ripped on petrochemical fumes, found in certain caves.
Another way is to look up at the stars. My friend Arch Crawford’s Crawford Perspectives is always of interest.
There’s some great work that’s been done on Spiral Calendars, too. Check out the 1900’s work by Christopher Carolan in the book “ The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events by Christopher L. Carolan (1996-07-03)“. $43 bucks, but you’re a high roller so go for it.
Then there’s my friend G.A. Stewart (I misplaced his number and owe him a phone call – hint hint) who looks at the work of accepted seer Nostradamus and come up with a dandy website “The Age of Desolation.” Like my own re-reading of Biblical aspects of prophesy, Stu’s work presently is focused on the key role of Syria and environs on our future.
Now, let’s fast-forward to my own work on how economies tend of repeat extremes of behavior when similar, massive, socioeconomic shifts take place.
What we’ve been tracking over on our (not quite free) www.peoplenomics.com website is explained by this chart.
What it suggests to me is that the market will have a good-sized pullback before the major run at the new wild all-time high.
The problem with this is that it’s like a financial “collision avoidance radar” after a fashion. It can sometimes hint at what’s ahead, but mostly it doesn’t offer any particular or key insights into what’s really driving contemporary events.
You just look at the green arrow and wonder “will there be a tradable correspondence?:
Yep, damn fine question, that.
So here’s the approach: Build a “threat list” and we have exactly that and it lives on my computer as a popup with Sticky Notes.
Our leading candidates for a short-term market melt down in the next month include the following:
1. The Fed meeting in December could be a shocker. Like no rate increase. That would toss the markets because the Fed is presently talking up the idea of a modest hike. But what if they up things half a point and not just a quarter? The ^TNX was up to 2.34 yesterday from 1.75 a month, or so, back. Yikes – is the world ready for a HALF POINT HIKE?
2.Second jitter is Syria. What IF the Russians, who are already making those Brussels Bureaubunglers nervous by moving missiles around, decide to move aggressively into Ukraine…or even pick a fight with the outgoing “Peace Prizer” who may not be as tough a negotiators as the incoming President-Elect? Or what if the Prizer sabotages the seeming agreement between Putin and Trump to go after ISIS jointly? Oh-oh…no sleep for the Nasty Nest of Regime-Change promoting Neocons at the State Department. Wonder if Trump will clear them out?
3.Attacks on America’s soft underbelly – shopping malls – always come around this time of the year but what if the intelligence works out to be correct for a change?
4.More major quakes – with two Super Moons to go this year, we can still shake, rattle and collapse. The Japanese just had another 6.9. By my own non-scientific thought processes, if you’re having major quakes on one side of the Pacific Plate, at some point (though on geologic time-scales) you’re bound to have action on the other side of the plate…
5.Then my son called and explained how totally unprepared the U.S. really is for a killer pandemic disease. Seeing as he’s an infectious disease specialist in sexually transmitted diseases, I take his detailed warnings as quite serious. He’s finally getting around to finishing his book “Living in the Hot Zones” which covers the waterfront from rehab centers to bath houses to low-income housing (where Norwalk breaks out periodically). I’ll let you know when it’s done…
So any of these things going “terrible/bad” would set off a major market decline. Or, maybe one of the Too Big To Fail SIFIs (systemically important financial institutions) actually collapses and we see if the continuous settlement of derivatives – put in place after the Bank Herstatt derivatives failure in 1976 – can be something the world can depend on to “forever work.”
Ain’t nothing forever, but then you know that. To everything, there is a season, repeat.
Press Release du Jour
Existing Housing sales due out at 10. Don’t expect any big surprise there.
Odds are fair the S&P will cross the 2,200 line today. Maybe Dow 19,000, too.
Just remember, a lot of this is based on two factors.
One is money fleeing the collapse of bond prices (as yields rise). Hot money will always flow to highest returns.
The other is the Fed money supply, which is up moire than 15 ½% in the past two years measured at the M1, seasonally-adjusted level.
Which means there is more paper chasing essentially the same pile of paper. So, naturally, prices will rise.
But ask what happens should the Fed raise a HALF not a QUARTER.
That could cause a short-term drop, but we have evidence from the 1929 event that even a Fed hike won’t cool the market.
That will just drive more bond money out of bonds into appreciating stocks even faster and then we finish the blow –off next year.
A Few Headlines
These set us to thinking:
The part is over when department “Joe Biden is the only one who can put the Democratic Party back together: Ex-DNC chairman says. Gads.
And in the “let bygones be democrats” file, we read Kellyanne Conway: No plan to pursue charges against Clinton.
Still the Left is gleefully watching the popular vote recount as this will lead to the attack on the Elector College Electors mid December.
\Odd coincidence? Our septic tanks get pumped today. Universe knows all, sees all…