Won’t mince today: The longer-term view of long wave economics offers the uncomfortable idea that not only will the Biden (denied so far) recession get worse, but the odds of full-on Depression are skyrocketing, as well. As this happens, my consigliere’s Warm-Up Wars will multiply such that we can only see World War III when the outcome … Read More
A number of our readers did very well in the market action yesterday. Our own (little) account was up a shade over 3-percent, which was nice, too. But it reminded me there’s an underlying theme to how we trade that most people don’t have the patience to work out. “One of these days, I need … Read More
Oh-oh! Into Prospect Theory (PT), Cumulative Prospect Theory (*CPT) and whether investment choices are driven by quantum bounding or, conversely, give rise to it? A little early to “go heavy and deep” but over the past couple of weeks a strangelet of quantumness has been nagging at me. Specifically, how free choice may indeed be … Read More
Pardon the brevity today. It’s a time when investing can be serious business. Especially when the economic Long Wave is as much calling the shots about our futures as much as the over-hyped “pretend leaders” who haven’t solved any real problems facing America for several decades. Yes, Washington has listened to so much “green-speak” that … Read More
BUT first: NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Data just out: “Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to -9.1. New orders, unfilled orders, and shipments were all little changed from last month. Delivery … Read More
In last Sunday’s ShopTalk, we ambled through some of the construction fine points of building a room suitable for high performance sound. Today, with a converted room at the ready – silent lights, HVAC sound boots, dual airlock doors, and sand-filled walls plus a fortune in Auralex wall coverings – we need to put something in our … Read More
We’ve never seen charts like the ones this weekend in more than 50-years of financial writing. Everything lines up for the period from Monday out to two weeks from Wednesday. What will happen is anyone’s guess. But we focus heavily on the charts today because they offer a lot to think about. So, sit down, … Read More
Delightful email from back-up consigliere out in Century City overnight. Sizing up the Thursday market action “Just vacuuming up the sucker money. Dow erases 500 point loss, surges into huge gain in rollercoaster day..” With a link to Wall Street rollercoaster: Dow erases 500 point loss, surges into huge gain. Running out the Bears to run, anyone? … Read More
Hard not to be in a festive mood: This is the Good Side of Inflation reports! This is the day we told you was coming – the day when not only do Consumer Prices come out (yuck, right?) but also the day the new – higher – Social Security Payments lock-in. As we told you … Read More
As Ukraine ramps up, we share another couple of chapters of an upcoming book on Lifeboat Homes – homes that help you survive. Pictures from the Depression era frame things plus we dig into the cost/benefit numbers as we move towards transitioning to environment-friendly living. Along the way, we have some PPI numbers and the … Read More
I thought a reader was playing with me. When I opened the suggested link: Stock futures fall after the Nasdaq Composite closes at a 2-year low. Not like this wasn’t obviously in the works, already. Especially since we have been forecasting a sub-30-thousand reading in our Aggregate Index work for months and months. We’ll update … Read More
One looking for a path into the uncertain future can’t be sure of just what to make out of today’s roll of headlines. Some news is hopeful, yet others not so much. Let’s begin on the positive side. Ben’s Prize Former Fed boss Ben Bernanke has shared the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. Not … Read More
Since one of my (purported) skills is broadcasting, every so often a reader wonders “Why not do an STS article on how to have a super home sound system? Well, OK, this can be really short (“do what sounds best to you”) or really long. Which begins like this: Inputs & Speakers Matter Long ago, … Read More