Month: October 2015

The futures were up this morning when I looked and in our odd work over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house, we anticipate the market high this week should come in right around….no, let’s save that for our Peoplenomics subscribers.  I showed them how to build the spreadsheet already…

Let’s just say this:  the market has another day (or two) of this rally to go.  But from there, we should be lined up on this year’s scariest of all market drops…but that will be over by the end of the month, or shortly after, so don’t go getting yourself all worked up about it.

A close today around 1,970 would be fine with me…let’s see how it plays.  But if it comes in at 1,973, or so, I will be screaming “I told you so” tomorrow.  Even 1,.967 will get Mr. Smug-face going.

Meantime, Roger Reynolds, a fellow who does an email list I have mentioned many times, as a similar view about the present rally:

Friday’s surge??? The move down from mid sept to the recent low is likely being called a successful “test” of the low—-hence Friday’s rally.

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The alarm clock didn’t matter today.

The brain went off first…waking me at 2:50 AM due to the hugely exciting events on this week’s to-do list.

For one, I am likely to drop back into “trading mode” this week and that excites the hell out of me.  Wall Street is a casino you don’t have to travel to play.

For another, I had a really useful insight into the future of Bitcoin, so that’s now a whole Peoplenomics report for Wednesday.

Then there’s the matter of the weather turning cooler here. The heat pump kicked on for the first time this season.

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Yeah, I look really stupid doing the happy dance, but since our report on  Wednesday in which I outlined a new approach to forecasting market action at two very specific places in the Elliott Wave structure, I was totally blown away by the Market’s behavior.

As Friday began, I was pouty and snippy – my system seemed (momentarily) like it would eat my lunch.  But the pure absolute magic happened at mid session and the S&P ended up over the 1,950 level for the week – as expected and forecast right here.

Halla-freaking-lujah!

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(Deep in the Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa Triangle)

We find ourselves this morning wondering if someone would be kind enough to prescribe some major league anti-psychotics for this market.

The problem is this morning’s Job Report which we will get to in a moment.

It’s the set-up of market psychology, however, that causes us concern.  You know markets are in a precarious state when news “flips.”

In other words, when “Good” news is taken as bad, and “Bad” news is taken as good, then trying to make sense and reasonably investments using other than purely technical trading tools because something of a mind-eff.

Here is how the Job report looking from the “flipped” perspective.

Say the Jobs report comes in stronger than expected.

In as normal (non-psychotic) world, this would be good news and the market would go up.

What’s not to love?  After all, more people working means more tax revenues for government, so pressure comes off there.  Fewer people would be “on  the dole” and we would have an increase in savings and investment, which could get us thinking in terms of the Virtuous Cycle in economics, once again.

But that may not work out this way.

Instead, the market could be thinking:  “With more people working, the Fed would be more likely to raise rates in the coming months.  This would increase business costs because money would be less free…and that, in turn, would mean less money available to shareholders as dividends.  So that means that when the Fed raises rates, we would see stock prices come down, and we would not make as much money…”

Oh, and let’s not leave out that a recovering economy is press oil back up…

It’s wrong-headed, of course.  The fact is that a slow, rounding bottom to interest rates is coming, like it or not, and the fact that a return of the “I” word (inflation) would kick sales (buy before prices go up) and give a major boost to Housing (buy before rates do up) is completely missed.

So too the impetus for some of the dark pools of capital to edge out of bonds, which would then drop in price, and into stocks, which should rocket moonward, is also missed.

The battle between the factions – believers on both sides – is what makes a market.

Markets are only rational in a limited sense, and only some of the time.

This may not be one of those.

The Jobs Data

Which gets us to the Hot off the Press Release:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell.

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(From within the Iowa-Wisconsin-Illinois Triangle)   We have arrived for the annual assembly of “good looking Beeches” here west of Chicago with the market looking pretty good (maybe through today and early next week) but going into options expiration, we expect things will hit the crapper.

Maybe it will be more Glencore revelations or some other foundation-shaker, but we still hold to the view that the S&P will drop below the 1,800 level within the next two’ish months.  After that, the Rally Before the End ought to be here.

It is likely to be your last chance to prep for Depression II.  Like 2009, but worse, by the look of it and we all know how much fund that was.

Other than the employment numbers being a driver, another factor which we have been pounding on is the problem of long wave economic  “trough wars.”

You see, in these 40-90-year economic long waves – and there’s more to it than the Kondratieff Wave – wars tend to cluster around the peaks of and valleys of economic activity.

There are only three “powers” in the world who have to be eyed in the same context as the aggressor Germany was in WW II when it comes to kicking off WW III.

One is China – which is building an island in the South China Sea to project a bit of power around itself, but also we notice that Chinese war ships have come into the Syrian theater, as well.

That Russia has been operating out of the naval facilities at Tartus has been an on-going talking point for me, for several years when this matter of “Where does the War come from?” arises.

In a way, the pending Russian and Chinese operation is vastly different from the pre-WW II alliances between Germany, Italy, and Japan.

Unlike the Germans, the Russians are mostly self-sufficient should those choose to be – and the Chinese have been better students of warfare than the Italians, without a doubt.  Sun Tzu is only one example.  When  a nation has 2,500 years of history, the style of thinking becomes a bit different.

Maybe I worry too much (almost certainly true) but I would summarize the thinking processes of these potential antagonists by simply looking at the most popular “board games” of the parties.

Here in the USA, of course, the two most widely played games among the young (*not electronic) would be checkers and Monopoly.  Good games and a fair bit of fun.

When comes to articulating mental acuity and learning the arts of advanced thinking, however, seems to me the Russian idolatry of chess speaks volumes.

The Chinese may (or may not) actually play Chinese checkers, but that game is more instructive in many ways than the single-front American board games.

On the other hand, there may be a migration path from Monopoly to the White House, at least if Donald Trump continues his ways.

As often stated, I figure we have on the low side 18-months more before this phase of rally and market recovery will end.  Ideally early 2017.

That’s time when America could be regrouping and rethinking how we “wage peace.”  But the reality is we don’t do that well.  We tend to go waging peace that turns into projectiles and bases…but haven’t I warned you “The Magic of America is that we monetize EVERYTHING”??

How closely the Chinese will interoperate with the Russians is not clear.  Reports this week have been fuzzy at best, although this summer of things is pretty good

A note from our oak-leaf cluster source, warhammer points out something else of interest:

George,

Some claim the recently announced Russian draft of 150,000 men is a mere coincidence, happening just as Russia begins prosecuting attacks against Syrian Rebels and/or ISIS.

<http://www.hngn.com/articles/135738/20151001/putin-oks-drafting-150-000-conscripts-russian-military.htm>

I don’t believe in coincidence. That’s a word often used when we can’t see who’s pulling the strings from behind the curtain.

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(Springdale, AR)  I am up in the middle of the frigging night in order to jot down a few notes about our most interesting sit-down with Chris McCleary of the www.nationaldreamcenter.com project.

Long-time readers will remember that site was founded by Ures truly some years back (try 2008) but I simply didn’t have time to do the site justice and Chris acquired it.

He’s really moved the ball forward, too.

Not to steal “future thunder” from his work, but he is chasing down a very interesting concept.  Namely that the best dreamers – in terms of having dreams with predictive content – may be those people who have trauma (and or) substance abuse in their backgrounds. 

The sample isn’t large enough yet, but the data (still small) has a damn interesting “bump” there.

OK:  Obvious question is whether trauma is caused by a person having predictive capabilities.

No,  at least in the small sample size…a 4-5 year old child can not cause trauma in the family setting (for example), at least in any way we can readily understand.

The role of substance abuse in making predictions was also an interesting train of thought.

It is fairly well-reported that Michael Nostracodeus did many of his visions while staring into a pot of dark oil.  And then there’s the matter of the Oracle at Delphi, who did the work in a case which by some accounts has a leaking hydrocarbon gases issue.

Follow this along with me:  Is there something about oxygen deprivation that drives people into a mental state where the persona withdraws into a quieter place?  And might the “place” be more accessible when DMT is beginning to be released as the “near death” appears?

How then does substance abuse figure into the picture? 

Well, isn’t it really part of that continuum?  I mean moving the consciousness around so as to go to other places where it can “connect” with other forces?

We know full well that alcohol didn’t get the classification “distilled spirits  without cause.

Substance abuse gets us along the same path, as well.

By the end of the evening, I was pretty amped (unable to sleep well) since this opens up so many vistas for further research. 

While Chris is working on the “triangulation problem” – I find myself working (in background) on mapping all the ways the future announces what is coming.

While some of Chris’ clients are (as a group) reporting dreams of “tornadoes” – which has me thinking that when the weather turns to fall tornado season early this coming week, we can expect to experience one (or more) major tornadoes with headline-grabbing damage, dreams are not the only channel available.

Grady over at our www.nostracodeus.com  website has really been refining the use of “indicator words” that can tell the future because there are certain phrases  that all by themselves hint at future developments.

One such phrase that we “go fishing” for is “talks broke”. 

This is the kind of predictive phrases that might mean that “talks broke off” in the case of a labor dispute that could lead to a strike.  Or, more worrisome, it could be used in politics as the “talks broke down” framework, in which case war chances thus increase.

As war chances increase, other indicators  (like “reserves called up”) would then further increase the odds of an unhappy ending.

Since we know that “indicator words” and “dreams” are how the future announces itself, are there more?

Why yes!

Wed know the future appears in works of literary fiction as well. 

Perhaps the two best current examples would be George Orwell’s 1984  and the many science “fiction” (now largely fact) of 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.  What he missed was that saw-like appendage on the submarine sail, used in the old movie version of the tale turned out to be wholly unnecessary as long as you had a 26” torpedo tube and a cruise missile to shove in and fire.

In all cases, however, there’s the future leaks into the present, although being fragile – or incompletely comprehended – it may be damaged a bit.

While Chris continues his research into which substances and which histories of abuse seem to offer karmic benefits in terms of being able to see future, we will keep looking at the collection of on-ramps and distortions that keep us from having a more precise handle on what our deeper selves are trying to warn us of.

Why would people in Arkansas or Missouri dream of tornadoes is the hanging question?

Is it Hurricane Joaquin which is already being mentioned as a possible Super Storm Sandy (and possible an Andrew as we read it) the object of the dreams?

If so, the lead time on the dreams is 3-5 days. 

But if when the high over the central U.S. breaks up next week, do we really get the more localized tornadic winds that people in this area who are sensitive would be dreaming about already?

We’re pretty sure that there is a declining curve (log of exponential, not sure from the data yet) that precedes event.

Winds next week in this part of the Midwest will be from almost every point of the compass…so it should become clear whether dreams are localized, and if so how northern Arkansas and Missouri fare will be a fascinating data dart to track.

Only In America

I really don’t know how to classify this one. 

But for the first time in memory not only have I had to spam-list Hillary (and that Emily’s list) damnocrat fund raising email, but this morning I got this for a former U.S. president:

I was going to send a note right back.

Well, Billy,

I guess you’d be the expert on passionate women in the White House, wouldn’t you, now?

No on the pandering.. 

Please remove me from this list and cease all future sleazemail.

Ures truly,

But instead of hitting send, I got to thinking that there might be some law on the books somewhere that would make it an offense to send such a note to a former whatchacallit.

He has, however, managed to earn a Spam designation in Outlook…joining what’s her name and the whozzits list.

The stranger part?  Haven’t gotten a money-raising email from the repugnicans, yet.

In an odd way, though, it helps me believe in ‘Merica again:  Where else can a person feel free to block emails from presidential office holders and arguably the worst secretary of state ever?

Flying Notes

Since we are off adventuring:

Longhorn restaurants are growing like a weed.  We sampled one of their early ones in Georgia a couple of years back (Ellijay, in the foothills north of Atlanta) and it was great.  So was the one in Fort Smith which is just two traffic lights from TACair, which provided a free courtesy car for the lunch run.

About 25- miles north of Mt.

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