The Death of Accountancy

Think robots won’t take your job if you are a CPA or if you push accounts (receivables or payables) around for a living? 

Think again.

Ures truly has been talking to his network of financial terrorists, again.

No, not the ones that shovel pennies around to ISIS/ISIL or the AQ type.  Nope, the financial terrorists I deal with are the ones who set up things like auto payments, micropayments, automated accounting systems and specialize in workforce/process automation.

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Feds Busting Preppers?

Especially when you read about how three men in North Caroline have been arrested on charges related to prepping. According to an Associated Press story, the men were… “…men fearing a government takeover and martial law stockpiled weapons, ammunition and tactical gear while attempting to rig home-made explosives” Now, as always, the devil is in the details. Anyone who can read a balance sheet can reasonably assume the US Government is in desperate financial condition.

Coping: With the Oneironaut’s Notebook

You may not remember what a Oneironaut is, so let me lift a definition from the UrbanDictionary to help you out:

“A person who explores dream worlds, usually associated with lucid dreaming. “

And yes, this morning’s comment is about another one of my lucid dreams, but a very curious aspect of them which is worth noting, and that is why I am writing this down for you.

Let’s begin with the dream:

In this one, I was with a group of family and friends – some of the same people I know from this life along with others and we were at a summertime party.  It was something like a huge block party and there were 25, or so,wandering from home to home,  people chatting abut this and that – when suddenly it occurred to the group that this would be a marvelous time to visit Europe.

With little further adieu, we suddenly all found ourselves at an airport in what felt like Copenhagen and we were going to take a recently added high speed train across northern Germany, visit the northern tier of Russian cities, and then return to where we’d come from.

One thing was different, however, and remarkably so:  The geography.  Across the whole northern side of German the coastline was littered with small islands.  I thought that was curious.

The group was shepherded into two rail cars (large, long, and quite comfortable) to begin a short trip on a low-speed line to a major station in Germany.  We were admonished by a tour guide to stay together because when we got to the “big station” there would be a zillion people and it would be easy to get lost.

Well, sure enough, we got lost and while the main body of the tour was off on the high-speed train to the east, but three or four of us were separated and then someone in the crowd picked my wallet and the next thing you know, we were on a low-speed train back to the west (off where the airport was located).  Near Copenhagen. 

About the only thing I had left was a small green card made of clear/green plastic and it contained a unique identifier, but I knew it was not electronic in nature.

We rode a couple of trains east, at first, thinking we would catch up with our tour group but after two short hops abandoned the idea and decided to return to the airport and head for home.

There was one other weird thing.  (Other than my card identifying me as passenger 477 or 471):  We sat behind the engineers (there were two) and on the trip west,. the railway was occasionally obstructed by self-running machines that were moving slowly around the tracks.

They weren’t doing anything…just being a nuisance.  So the engineers would slow, bump them out of the way and then continue.  The significant part was the conversation about how bad robotics were and how they almost ruined the world.

Since we had taken  a convertible for the ride from the trains to the airport, it fell to me (once we had started through the boarding line) to run back outside and put the top up on the car, since rain was threatening.  There were two other cars – both convertibles which I thought curious – and their owners were having a very difficult time as their tops were both broken and wouldn’t fit tight.  On e wouldn’t go on at all and the owner was cursing he’d have to drive it to a shop in the rain to get it fixed.

Back inside, I wandered back through the line and had a short conversation with an attendant about how it was that a metal detector had failed to pick up the brass buttons on a blue blazer I was wearing.  That was indicated by a simple, cheesy meter that was built into a counter we walked past.  Hardly a modern metal detector, at all.

There was a definite air of surreal to the whole adventure; the kind of slightly over-done shadows as though the contrast had been turned up a bit higher than necessary.

But then I woke and noticed the whole adventure has only taken about 50 minutes.  Elaine had gotten up at 3:04 (I noticed the clock) and my alarm goes off every (damn) morning at 4 AM on the button.

So why mention this dream at all?

I mean other than look for lost/missing tourists in northern Germany/northern Europe in headlines for the next couple of days?

We it’s because of the robotic platforms that were interfering with the operation of the railroad as three of us headed back west.

There were no computers anywhere in the dream.

And I don’t mean like “just this one dream…”  I mean that’s what I was thinking about from 4:00 AM until 4:34 AM this morning…trying to figure out why there are no computers in my dreams.

Occasionally, there is an autonomous something (like these useless things that clogged the rail line) but they were held in contempt.  The was no overarching machinery except of the sort that would be around if the world of technology had been flash-frozen in about 1945, or so.  But definitely pre-transistor and pre-atomic bomb.

And that all set me thinking along two lines of inquiry.

The first was whether there’s more truth to the old nursery rhyme/song “…merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily, Life is but a dream…”

Is it possible that the world we share is actually a large “group dream” and that “real life” is this other realm which hasn’t achieved the same “dreamlike” technology and which has been flash-frozen with basic electronics before the A-bomb?

You can wonder what this world would “dream like” from over there. 

I mention it because as much time as we spend dreaming, and I’m pretty comfortable saying this, you can over time actually begin to “map” that world  – the one we dream of.  The topography is different, so is the lighting, and even specifics of the geography are different.  Those islands of Northern Germany over toward Denmark don’t appear on “this world” maps.

Copenhagen – in this life  – is north of Germany, not West.  But perhaps that is how or why we have such a strong collective concern about crustal shifts, about Charles Hapgood’s theory, and all the rest of it.

It could be “print through” from a life/place where it has already happened.  Or, not.

The second reason for mentioning it is the odd lack of computers in my dreams.

Oh, sure, there are some basic electronics; steam gauges is what we pilots refer to old-school instruments as.  But thinking back, not a single LCD or television has appeared in one of my dreams in 60+ years, as far as I can remember.

And that’s where I was from 4:25 until 4:34 this morning.

Are dreams telling us something very important about robotics and computers?   Like “They are very bad for you and given enough research, they will learn to hunt and kill you”?

I’m sure you saw the story last week about a new Russian combat robot being on display and a month or three back, there was the quadruped the US military is interested in weaponizing.

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Repondering Gold

Fine weekend – of work, I’m sad to report.

But  I made some real progress on three of the biggest economic questions out there.

1.  Is there anything meaningful about the gold withdrawals that took place from the CME on Friday?

2.  If there an adaptation of on-balance volume that would be integrated into our already marvelous Peoplenomics Trading model?

3.  And – is it true that the whole of the accounting profession will die over the next 10 years?

The answers to #’s 2 and 3 will be laid our for Peoplenomics readers on Wednesday of this week.

Which leaves us with coffee and the CME warehouse numbers from last week to ponder.  The most important two banks to consider are HSBC and JP Morgan-Chase.

So, what does it mean?

Is a bottom in gold likely here yet?  Or, might something else be going on?

Damn fine question, that, but we don’t really have enough data to know but we can speculate in both directions.

First a word about size:  270-thousand ounces is a fair bit of gold – a third of a billion dollars worth, but is it REALLY that big when compared to how much gold there is in the entire world especially when you count government holdings (like Fort Knox) and all that gold Germany has, but which are are politely not giving back to them

The simple answer is no. 

The CME warehouse number as of Friday was  7,572,284.933 ounces.  And if you multiply that by this morning’s spot price, it’s enough to buy something other than a steak and eggs breakfast. 

But does is mean something might be going on under the surface in gold?

Theory #1:  (With credit to my consigliore who also was working on this Sunday):  It is possible that the marginal mine operators are getting nervous about the price of gold.

As you will remember, many of the gold miners sold their gold forward at pretty good prices in order to increase their staying power and lock in long-term profits.  The bad news for them was that many of the junior and marginal players missed out on substantial profits when gold was up around $1,800, but that was long ago and far away…

The reality is than many of the marginal miners are getting to the point where they will have to start shutting down operations if things keep getting worse on the price front.  But, since they have gold mines, their credit it good, interest rates are low, so why not buy up physical gold now to keep it off the market and then parcel it back into the market when prices solidify a bit?

I mean, this is the kind of thing that happens with diamonds, as anyone who follows the gemstone world knows.

Theory #2:  This one is a little different.  This is the one I call “Ure’s Crackpot Low Rates but Screw It Let’s Get Rich Anyway” model.

Here’s how it works.

Let’s say that we have a big hedge fund and we can borrow money for 1/2% interest.  We know that at some point the Fed will be raising rates.  We also know that housing costs are going up 2% now and Food costs are going up 3% and at some point, energy will turn around, too.

So, what we we buy (cheap) and “own” which will go up in value, has relatively limited supply and which could have a price pop?

One answer is gold.

If I can borrow money at 1/2%, a thousand dollars of gold today will likely be worth around $1,030 next year.  My cost for holding the gold for the year would make its cost $1,005.  Which doesn’t make sense.  I mean a little money, sure, but no new airplane, or house in Cuba.

Until we use leverage of 10:1 in the ownership.  In this case, my gold is then $10,000 worth today.  My interest cost is still $5/thousand but let’s say it’s 1% overall…because I have to pay something to borrow more and pledge the asset.   But the gold in a year would be worth $10,300…and about here I wander off into a blue cloud of daydreams.  $100 costs and $300 profits is the stuff to thrive on. 

You’d do deals like that all day long, if you could.

But does 270-thousand ounces mean anything else?  Like someone trying to corner the market?  No.

Buying up 3 1/2% of a market as big as gold isn’t happening, despite what a few bold bugs would love me to write. 

But will gold ever go to zero?  Likely not.

But would these be interesting times to see marginal players getting desperate to keep their mines going when forward contracts expire, or when big hedgy guys are looking for ways to “salt the turd market” a bit?

Yes.

Or maybe, someone with a few brains who has read the US Public Debt to the Penny – which has been artificially paralyzed for a while – would follow the Baron Rothschild axiom to buy when the blood is running in the streets.

Although it won’t be allowed for civilians to play as we recently warned subscribers that there are increasing references in regulations dealing with money laundry/anti-terrorism  rules, to limit this game to only the big players…not scum of the earth sheep with a few coins as a hedge against crooked government.

Times coming when anything outside the system will get you branded with a big T on your forehead.  ‘Specially  if you dare to support candidates other than the Orthodox Corporate Party Put-ups.

Collapsing Oil, Texas Troubles

In theory, anyway, the gold miners have a tremendous leg up on the hapless guys in the oil patch.

Oh, sure, North Houston is still a traffic nightmare, and sure, Shell is still building a big campus and all, but the price of oil is collapsing again today and down into the $46’es.

What that means is simple:  Interest rates are not coming down, so the last of the little guys in the oil patch are likely to have one hell of a time keeping on with operations.  Which means the bigger fish – with deeper pockets – will soon be able to gobble up resources at bargain prices and salt it away for the future when depletion comes along with aggressively.

There’s a story in the Tyler, Texas paper about how oil production could be about to reach an all time high.  But remember that the peak in production will be followed by a bust when comes to jobs and Texas is known for a cyclical economy.

The reason for mentioning this is that it has taken a new generation of technology – and we are just now coming back to production levels set in 1972.  As Oilman2 is constantly reminding me, you can jack up production short-term, but long term, the rolling peak is likely here.  And my work in the Manufacturer’s Resource War scenario backs it up.

It’s just going to be a matter of what the fighting breaks out over:  Real estate, food, religion, oil, foreign exchange rates, made-up money, repudiated debt…  it’s all going on the table and it’s all contentious.

For Texas, the downside is rearing its head and all the happy-talk in the world won’t keep the juniors from being eaten by the majors, as happens with each cycle.

Personal Incomes and Fairytales

Not that it shows up yet in the Personal Income data just out:

“Personal income increased $68.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $60.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $25.9 billion, or 0.2 percent. In May, personal income increased $66.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $53.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $90.8 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.

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Coping: The Library Without Walls or Books

Elaine and I are pretty serious about downsizing our lifestyle.

Natural thing that happens with age, and all:  More than one level and more than one acre will – over time – become a bit more to maintain than we feel like.  The difference between quaffing beer or sipping 18-year old scotch.

Part of the problem, of course, is that we like books.  All kinds of books – all kinds of topics – and we love them all.

Pick a topic and we can probably find some guidance on it. Over a thousand to pick from.  Not that we don’t trust the machine age and electronic books (we’re a three Kindle household, plus an Echo to see how voice technology goes…).  It’s just that electronic books have not yet been taken to their full potential.

Microsoft Office  has much better information-conveyance possibilities than does a book.

As good as our Kindles are (2 Fires and a Paperwhite) they still lack mastery of one thing a physical book has:  Thumbing.  Somehow, the man-machine interface just doesn’t have this one down yet.

Give me a physical book and I can hit the information I’m looking for in just seconds.  With a Kindle, it could be many, many minutes – and that’s provided I don’t get bored swiping or trying to find an indexing answer.

Often as not though, the indexing strategy is difficult to articulate into keywords or locational searches and often only fits the “I’ll know it when I see it…” criteria. 

When thumbing – which isn’t even primarily a thumb – that happens quickly.  You can get a sense or recall how the information in the book was laid out – it’s a feeling.  Thus,,in a good book, quickly defines the location of the desired details are located.  It’s magical.

Well-written books are a joy this way; and it’s a key part of why the translation from paper to the portable document file (.PDF) format is still lacking.  And, since Kindles eat a proprietary semi-clone of .PDF files, the problem has followed there.

Not that we don’t like Kindles, though:  We have hundreds of books on them, too.

Initially, books have been limited to the .PDF format by one thing:  memory size. 

However, now with the age of cloud-based resources handy, there’s no reason not to have a much more robust, engaging, engrossing, and communicative kind of “book” out there.

By communicative, what I mean is many of the books I’m reading of late, such as a reread of Joseph Granville’s work on on-balance volume’s importance to stock trading, could be much more rich.

Here’s how:

Whether you’re talking Granville (or my other favorite book Technical Analysis) the authors of such books insert a chart that shows some occult stock market concept, say “flatbasing” in Granville, and then insert a chart that shows the concept but then completely stops.

Not that a chart shouldn’t have a right axis to it… of course it would.

But in this Book2 format I have in mind – to pin the tail on the concept – the right end of an  example chart would be extensible.  So a chart that in a commodity, for example, that covered from June of one year to June of the next, could be expanded with just a finger move, or two, to explode into a multi-year chart.  Or narrowed to a single trading hour.

For me *(and you too, more’n likely) this would add a whole new dimension to chart work.

And this format “Book2” would also have incredible applications in the field of medicine.

I don’t know if you have been following it, but it is just coming out that while the Centers for Disease Control has historically claimed there has been no connection between autism and vaccine administration, the reality is coming out that a couple of highly placed bureaucrats are actually alleged to have censored the data in order to skew the results in an attempt to continue vaccine use!

This story started to break on InfoWars a couple of days ago under the heading “Bombshell: CDC destroyed vaccine documents, Congressman reveals.”  Related is the C-SPAN video over here which is on the must-watch list.

Now, let me explain how “Book2” could go a long way toward not only giving the public better  books to read, but also more honest research.

For one, the Book2 concept is rather large – like extensible XML.

In the case of medical studies, the core functionality improvement of the Book2 format would be that all study data could be forever inextricably linked to any book on medicine.  In other words, all the MMR vaccine data could be preserved.

Not only that, but the Book2 format would include a more comprehensive list of sources of data as well as who provided funding for a book’s creation.

In the case of vaccines, it would be very interesting to have books that link snapshots of audited financial data of the authors as a detail of the Book2 format.  Why?  Well, take books on any disease you can think of and then ask yourself, “Who would stand to make a buck off this research?”  To my way of thinking, this sort of thing ought to be included with the basic book material, as well.

And there’s the rich media aspect of Book2 content.

Think about this:  How many books have been written about music, composition, artists, photography, film direction, actors and actresses, and on and on – right down to brush strokes in painting – that are completely devoid of any active content?

Yet with a cloud-enabled Book2 format, we could have all of these things:  Voice responsive lookups with the Amazon Echo, rich media delivered to that Retina display or 4K screen, active underlying data sets, rescaling of charts, re positioning of drawings, examples of music and art down to the detail level, and in the case of hard sciences, even online zooming electron microscopes to show varying levels of detail that is not possible in the flatland of books.

The technology is not here, yet, but imagine a book with smells:  The salt air of the open ocean for that sailing book, or the smell of the stable in that horse grooming book.  Wind and water in the face during Hornblower; heat and dust in Lawrence of Arabia.

XML’ified information to better engage a wider range of minds, and thanks to translation engineers, easier (OK, instant) transliteration to share cross-cultural experience..

Information and intelligence, whether we like it, or not are topological phenomena.

The idea that there is a real Bell Curve to the distribution of intelligence is a fraud before a nation of simpletons.  For everyone’s brain is not a singular line – a curve.  Rather, it follows a topology such that a  a person who may “line out” in one standardized test may in fact be a Chopin in music.  It wouldn’t be evident without a music test, though, would it?

Wheeler in physics, or a Rembrandt in art.  The “curves” don’t adequately capture the topology of genius because testing is almost universally a bad average based on limited scope questions in the first place.

A final note on the Book2 format:  It increases the ability of an author to create compelling content.

I can’t tell you how many times in my novel (DreamOver) which is still pouring of the fingers in dribs and drabs, I have come up against the hard limits of the written word.

Not that I can’t do it – of course I can.  I learned long ago that writing is the art of drawing a picture with words – and hopefully the words properly-chosen will create roughly the same image in your head, as I intend.

But that world of flat bookery is going away.  The library systems as we know it are being virtualized.  Gutenberg, Amazon, YouTube and Vimeo…there’s a progression only a fool could miss.

My little sister is going to a library opening in a week or so, having been on the planning group at one point.  New libraries sound like a nice thing but I didn’t have the heart to tell her they are an artifact.

But it got me to thinking about how things have changed since all three of us siblings worked as “pages” *(book shelvers and tidy-uppers) at the Seattle Public Library when we were in school under the tutelage of Mrs. O’Brien who knew more about information that even many of today’s cloud engineers, I daresay,.

It was a delightful conversation, but it reminded me of the world we live in.

You know:  The one where some day the last order of fish & chips will be eaten.  And the one where books will eventually be rich-media events so that knowledge can be more readily consumed.

By people not damned to a life, defined by a line, that misses the beauty of the topology of us infinitely potentiated primates.

In the past, America’s great industrialists built massive free public libraries.  But where is the echo today?  The fortunes of Gates and Ellison and Buffett do good works, don’t get me wrong.

But the previous age of industrialists left a legacy of minds and seems to me that promotion of a Book2 extensible authoring framework to include more source, more media, and to provide accessibility and extensibility to new technologies would be a worthy legacy.

Still, to prove the point (how poorly we adapt to the future), do you know what Amazon still sells?

The Weaver Leather 5 1/2FT BUGGY WHIP BLACK.  And less than $15-bucks.

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Thanksgiving Flash-Bang

This morning we go a-futuring…a futuring we go…

And who is this somewhat obscured fellow off to the right there?  (Unless you’re dyslexic, of course, in which case that’d be your left.) 

Why it’s none other than Lemony Snicket!

And…what’s this?  A big speed bump in the road during the Thanksgiving recess of Congress! 

How, pray tell, does all this fit into Long Wave Economics?

This morning we will examine one possible future that answers these and a lot more questions.  One that fits market wave counts, defense deliveries, and no one home in Washington.

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