Month: December 2014

Hot off the press (release):

New York, December 30, 2014 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2014, shows that the pace of home prices across the country continues to decelerate although eight cities did see prices rise faster.
More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
Year-over-Year
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year declines in October compared to September. The 10-City Composite gained 4.4% year-over-year, down from 4.7% in September. The 20-City Composite gained 4.5% year-over-year, compared to 4.8% in September. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.6% annual gain in October 2014 versus 4.8% in September.
Miami and San Francisco saw prices rise 9.5% and 9.1% over the last 12 months. Eight cities, including San Francisco, Denver, and Tampa saw prices rise faster in the year to October than a month earlier.

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Oh, that time of the month, already, huh?

Check back at about 8:20 AM Central and we should be able to present the latest Case-Shiller, S&P, Dow-Jones, Corelogic (and whoever else wanders by) monthly Housing Price Index report.

As our super high-tech graphic shows:  What I would expect going into this is a sideways report.

In other words, just as the Fed’s withdrawal of “easy money” has led to a collapse of prices in oil since there’s quantitative pleasing to blow up the balloons of the oil bubble, so too, there are some incredible bargains in housing out there.  Oil is back down nibbling on $53-bucks, so someone is likely about to get into trouble in the oil patch, if they aren’t already.

The reality is (likely) that since the Fed is trying to act like there’s a recovery, the amount of free money being dispensed to keep banks owning repo’ed homes is likely starting to tighten.

Elaine and I have been looking at homes, too…something closer to the kids would be nice.  And prices have sure come down.  Places like Dallas, once off the charts, have come down to where you can get a livable (nice enough) home for under $150K.

Prices in the Pacific Northwest and down the West Coast haven’t come down much (yet) but as the bank and speculator money comes off the table, those homes are going to come on the market.  And with rates still rock bottom low, it’s getting hard not to buy a home, if you can afford it.

But we shall see how quickly the dynamics change. Do check back.  For now, a SWAG (simple wild-assed guess) would be small pick up in volume, level to declining price, but that’s with no meds and plenty-coffee.

Financial Trouble Today?

There is a BIG Crack in the World financial model developing.

Japan was down more than 1.5% overnight and China down 1%.  In Ure-Up, the frogs, krauts, and kneelers are all down 1% or more.  Which despite the premarket opening activity here (down 40 points) argues that some news item, or other, will be ceremonially blamed and down 150 or so is where the morning dart landed.

Ukraine:  Dictatorship?

What do you call it when the president of a country (put in power with Europower and US cookies) threatens martial law if the “peace process” is derailed?

Say, didn’t anyone send this fellow the new Russian Military Doctrine unveiled last week that pointed at the West/NATO as major threats to Russia?  And didn’t Ukraine just drop non-aligned nation status and throw in with the bankster crowd?

Naturally, they promise a vote, but say, those wouldn’t be ex-Florida machines, would they?

Crash Debris

That plane crash a few days back (Airbus A-320) has yielded some bodies and gloating debris.  My guess (as a pilot) is that the plane experienced a catastrophic engine event and attempted a descent, or the turbulence of the storm was simply too much.

Pilots in recurrent training are taught that what rips wings off in turbulence is keeping on too much power.  Airspeed needs to be cut at least in half, but there’s a natural instinct from pilot training to keep on power because that gives you climb if you need it when the “bottom drops out” – which is where the too much power for conditions reaction comes from.  Just a guess, however.  Having been in severe turbulence I can tell you instincts are a terrible beast to be overcome when it’s like being in a blender on the frappe setting…

Passings

Luise Rainer, at 104. First winner ever of back-to-back Oscars back in the 30’s.  Oh, and who were the other’s to do that?  The story has more Trivial Pursuit questions than most, which why it is worth reading.

Speaking of People (as in Magazine)

Had to grab the ViseGrips with this headline:  “Argentina’s President Adopts Jewish Boy to Keep Him from Turning into a Werewolf.”

Even in rehab, this would be a tough one to make up.

Another Obama Golf Story

OK, so Obama plays more golf than Eisenhower.  Unlike Ike, I don’t think there’s an Obama Tree on any course yet.  There used to be an Eisenhower Tree up until this past February, however.

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Aha!  The learning never stops around here, but this morning we’ve managed to sneak up on a key bit of personal learning.

First, let’s talk about the trip to the Social Security office yesterday. 

It turned out to be a pleasure.

First off, the fellow at the front desk recognized us from before.  And, when we weren’t getting enough/right answers from him, he was kind enough to provide access to the fellow who ran the office.

There had been a clerical error on my address – but there was also a calendar issue, so we will find out when that rolls around in about 2-weeks if all our problems miraculously disappear on that date.

Meantime, we had some waiting to do…and I got to talking with the guard.  Nice fellow, planning to retire in three years himself, get a Winnebago and travel all 49-states you can get to without swimming.

I was going to explain to him that by then, he might want to include the states of Tijuana, Sonora, Baja, and perhaps as far south as the state of Quintana Roo along with Campeche and Yucatan.

There was a bit of blood on my tongue, as I continued to bite it, realizing that explaining how the North American Onion was gong to work, how British Columbia would also be a state by then, and within 5-years, it would just have to be the “State of Columbia” because the British were not the grand guardians of social welfare as any of the real historians of BC would attest.  And the word British part would have to be axed on political grounds simply in honor of the suffering of the coastal bands such as the Haida Gwaii..  (You can probably see why I dummied up:  It would have been a long discussion.)

Instead, I asked him about the short office hours, and if someone shows up at 2:30 for an appointment whether they would be kicked out at the 3 PM office closing time.  No, he assured me, they actually stay open until 4:30 most days (sometimes later) to make sure everyone is seen.

That was reassuring and I get better about my tax dollars.  Private sucktor folks still end up about 200 vacation days short in 50 years, but did I have a cheese to go with that whine?

By the time I’d met all the folks in the office, it was pretty clear that the office doesn’t have a 27-hour workweek, as the sign says.  That’s basically the “Public should show up time.”  They get seen, the guard fellow explained.

Good one to know.  Rather than “hours” the sign really ought to read:  Show Up Between (and then list the hours). But not everyone is as literal as us.

In the case of my own application, I screwed up by questioning Social Security’s income record.  I had noted in my application, at the time of filing, that my records of income and theirs had some discrepancies. 

Turns out that part of Social Security’s public face says Social Security benefits are based on wages.  But, after two of the trips to the office, turns out they were based (in my case) on the IRS SE Worksheet.

This has had me buried in the research into how Schedule SE was supposed to work in 2008, for example.

Schedule SE is the Self Employment worksheet.  And my income there was $xx,xxx.  However, the amount of income that I paid income tax on was $xxx,xxx.

What hadn’t been clear to me at the time (and I think there’s still something smoldering in all this) is that the SE schedule was lower and that is the number used by Social Security. 

A little history check here:  No wonder government called it a “tax credit” rather than what the reductions as a “tax credit” for self employed persons is:  It makes a definite reduction in Social Security payments in later years, when the SE number, not the actual “paid tax on number” is used.  Definite lack of candor at the time, typical of the PTB.

In fact, to my way of thinking, it’s typical of Washington doublespeak:  Tell small business they are getting a tax credit for small business owners.  And then screw them on the back-end when comes time to collect Social Security.  But I’m not going to change that – it’s just the way it is…the problems are almost always with the people who write the laws, not the federal workers who are generally good folks. Vacation and bennies differentials aside.

Speaking of which…let’s not forget that president what’s-his-name has just made matters worse in regard to turning federal employees into praetorian minions:  Remember the feds minimum wage is $10.10 but for the private sucktor, the min-wage is still $7.25.

When I tell you federal employees are “special” I’m not a-kidding.  But, how soon we forget them pen-strokes.

“OK, you fixed your Social Security problem (for now) so would you please get to the retrograde stuff?”

Ah…Well, I got home and then spent a full hour on the line with CenturyLink tech support.  Our internet connectivity has become unacceptable.  Day before Christmas.  Too many retried and I’ve been working on that problem for six days, now.  They issue credits, I call the next day for another because it’s still broken.

The good news:  I will be getting free internet access until they fix it so it will stream again.  The bad news:  The won’t be until January 30th until 7 PM says the tech.

I bet you didn’t know that CenturyLink actually has a Bandwidth Exhaustion Department, did you?  This is what one of the techs told me.

Apparently, there’s no point to stopping additional sales just because there’s insufficient capacity…just add a department to fix it.  Then you can justify six ways to Sunday, rolling in the money, and loving it!

No worries in terms of UrbanSurvival/Peoplenomics:  We have a high speed satellite connection which gets us 10-down and 3-up, but only when the weather is clear.  Less in rain and not at all in storms….but I will be needing to buy more bandwidth.  We eat 3-4 GB per day around here, up to 6-when I run multiple Nostracodeus runs.

About here, I got to wondering  (lights went off between my ears, a truly unique experience)  if I was somehow in the “Mercury retrograde penalty box?”

You see, Mercury is retrograde in January (the window is the 16-24th with the hot day being Jan 21).

I’ve been a reasonably lucky guy most of my life, but I do have some retrograde periods, and I’m in one now but coming out of it.

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It would be so easy to become filthy rich, if only we had a time machine that could advise us in advance of what’s coming.

There have been (and still are) plenty of efforts to obtain one.  The latest “secret ingredient” being used is software, and it’s working out OK for a very few.  But time machines have their limits, and when we get glimpses of the future by using advanced technology, while the information may be pretty good, it is often not tradable.

Take this week, for example: On Tuesday, chief code-slinger Grady at our www.nostracodeus.com project posted this:

Predictions:  There are indications that near Christmas, news about Ebola and North America could ‘ramp up’. (WHO indicates there is still a danger of Ebola breaking out and spreading ‘World Wide’.) Ebola Vaccine research in Switzerland is halted.

The Event monitor suggests there may be an attack by ISIS or ISIL tomorrow or Thursday. There are hints that it could be directed against the USA and/or its assets.  The event monitor uses the same algorithm that, among other successes, predicted the Washington State school shooting last October.  As with all human attempts at peering into the future, sometimes the event monitor is wrong.

So how did it all work out?

Ebola:  The very next day, the Washington Post run the story that there was a lot of exposure of scientists to Ebola.  I think we count that a hit.

And about the ISIS (ISIL if you’re John Kerry) outlook?  Well, there’s the shoot-down of a Jordanian aircraft reported, with the pilot being held by ISIS.  But whether that’s real is somewhat debated since Jordan is playing an updated version of the old song by Bob Dylan “It ain’t me, babe.”

In terms of human vs. human, there was the Berkeley, MO shooting which will give the mainstream divisive media yet more opportunity to sell the leftist anti-cop side of digital anarchy.  Law enforcement, however, got ahead of the curve on this one and was super-quick rolling out videos of the scene, and as a result perhaps, much of the activity (so far) has remained peaceful.  Except for the violent parts and arrests.  But it hasn’t gone viral on any action networks designed to mass agitate.

All of which is interesting (in that the holiday worked out more or less to our linguistic expectations, but the bottom line to all the technology and reading hundreds of thousands of pages is what? 

Unfortunately, not really tradable information. 

Oh, I suppose  Jordan could have grounded flights, CDC  could have released its data earlier instead of what has the odor of “butt covering” and maybe the police in Missouri could have put a body-cam testing program in place.

But from the investor stand point (which is what we focus on around here) what really matters is that Dow is in record territory and the odds of a collapse between now and the end of trading for the week is just about zero.

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What does an FA-18 Hornet going transonic just before busting up over Mach 1 have to do with why Ford brands a car as its “Mach One” and how does this fall figure into the price of oil and where to make the next smart investment?

It’s all in how you “grid the world.”  It’s something we all do, but it’s not something often articulated because it all goes back to parenting, schooling, jobs, and the bouncing around through life.

But ultimately, how well you do on the financial side of the house is decided by two simple concepts:  How you think and its next door neighbor what you think about most.  And then it all distills down to what you do about it.

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Comes that time of the year when I go through my “seasonal changes” and make ready for my “New Years Revolutions.”

But not before savoring this year a bit more and passing on some of my “best of class learning” for the year.

Seems to me that a reasonable thing to do each year is to spend a little bit of time (if only an hour) sitting down to ask the really important questions, like.

Is my health better or worse than last year?

Did I learn anything important this year?

Did I share things that really mattered?

Am I ready for the coming year?

Am I still in love and full of the boundless energy that comes with love offered and returned?

What are the biggest problems in your life and are you working on solving them?

I think if a person can answer yes to those, they’re got life wired.

Having said that, I’ like to go through a few of my personal responses to this list because odds are good that you might be able to borrow an idea or two.

On Health

Our health is as good, or better, than last year.  We eat exceptionally “close to source.”  Which means instead of using a lot of processed foods, we eat simple fare.

Take breakfast, for example.  I’ve mentioned my “cottage cheese pancakes” now and then and you might want to experiment with the recipe, which is really simple as all get-out.

You take your favorite pancake mix (we use either Krusteaz or Pioneer) and for each cut of dry ingredient you add 2-somewhat heaped-up tablespoons of cottage cheese.  The drier stuff works better than a runny brand for the applications.

Then you add cold water (just like always) except you make the mix a little thicker than normal.  About like a good oat meal.

That’s it.  Place in a well-buttered pan and cook the first side to golden brown (picture above) and then flip. 

A little butter and some pure maple syrup and what you have is a pseudo-blintze in hardly any time at all.

On Learning

Oh, gosh, where to begin?  I go through books like crazy:  Non-fiction.  I look at the library as going “concept fishing” whenever I get a spare moment.  Just this morning on the throne I managed to absorb the fundamentals of the Sears-Haack body and how that may be one of the secrets to getting a few more knots out of the old Mouse.  We’ll see.

I try to keep one or two non-fiction books going all the time:  Pick up a page here and there and first thing you know, you’ve got a lot of knowledge, even about a hobby like ham radio, gun-smithing, or whatever turns your crank.

Sharing Things that Matter

I don’t know if I have ever mentioned this, but both Elaine and I are “shower people.”   It’s either the negative ions (released by falling water and lightning storms, or showers, which is why some people like to get up and hit the shower as much as they hit the coffee first thing…).  The idea of sitting in a tub is not particularly attractive, since you’re stewing in your own dirt.

For some reason until I was about 40, I had always thought of the personal showers hose attachments as an “old person’s” deal.

Something like the Waterpik SM 653 CG Original 6-Mode Massage Handheld Shower, Chrome which runs about $25 bucks.

The reason I like the handheld shower extension is that it has a “high pressure” mode which is ideal for doing a daily “pressure wash” of certain body parts.  Oh?  Yes, of course “there” but also since most have a pressure blasting setting, they get soap out of the hair in a lot less time…and if you every wake up in the morning (thinking something died in your mouth from the previous night) they can also work like an over-sized WaterPik to wash your mouth out.

So if you know anyone who doesn’t have one of these, and who is addicted to the morning showers these things are great…been using them for years, just don’t think I mentioned it before.

The most recent place (outside home)  we ran into ‘em, I think, was up at the Dodge City Boot Hill Casino a few years back.  2011?  We’d flown in (KDDC is hard to see if you’re new to flying that part of the world, the runway looks like dirt, about the same color, but it’s really paved…ended up flying the GPS until we could see the barely visible runway numbers back then).

To make a long story longer, I don’t know if I looked particularly haggard, or what, but they put us in an ADA compliant room, and shower wands are a requirement.  So we didn’t bother changing rooms (ADA rooms are larger with more room to move about) and ever since we’ve been huge fans of shower wands.

Consider yourself “shared” upon.  And if you’re under 50, still thinking shower wands are a waste, give them a try.  It solves the marriage problem of “I like showers like rain”  (Elaine). She’s so meticulous with it, she doesn’t even get the glass doors wet in the shower.

Me, on the other hand?  Call FEMA when I hit the shower.  Set  the hose to pressure-washing mode and 70 PSI, thanks.  Hell yeah…ceiling is wet and so is everything else within 8-feet by time I get done with pressure-washing. Such a clean disaster area you’ve never seen.

One other idea here (kind of a crackpot thing, but you find quirks amusing, right?):  I have a pet theory that people who don’t rinse off well enough after showers set themselves up for health problems later in life: 

The thinking is that soap residues are probably bad for you.  I figure they may block the skin from doing its job OR residues might be absorbed.  So I’m one of those people who uses soap only on the hair, pits, and there.  The hands get clean doing the elsewhere sudsing (if that’s a word) and washing your soap.  (If soap was meant to have hair on it, I’m sure P&G would make a brand that way…but that’s way TMI, lol.)  [That’s just sick and groady enough to become a hit product…hmmm…]

Am I Ready for the Coming Year?

No.,  I would be, but here’s the thing:  We have been down to the Social Security Office twice and spent 7 1/2 hours of phone time and they are a totally F/U’ed organization.  We may try it again this morning, but as I said before, they can’t manage 50-million people getting benefits with a dozen products while Amazon manages 250-million and tens of thousands of products.

Except for Social Security being incredibly bureaucratic (I sent  complaints to my congressoid and sinator, but since I know they didn’t read the last budget bill, the odds of any real action on my behalf are about bupkis…

Other than that, yes.  Ready.  We would otherwise be all chilled, kicked, and enjoying the remnants of 2014.  But thanks to Social Sec.

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