Yes, Gold has Kicked the Market’s Butt

As always, we don’t offer financial advice, although if you’re a bull (one who expects stocks to go up) this might be an interesting week.  Part of a financial “education.”

I referred to this (possible) timing of markets back in December when I suggested barf bags and seat-backs locked around January 10.  As should be clear, that was off by several days.

Why? Likely because in my work (new, odd, and crazy ways of looking at things) there are no book references to things like vacations, holiday closures, partial-day trading session impacts on experimental oscillators, and oh, yeah –  A FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.

Still, at least for a few minutes this morning things could be rocky for the bulls. We’ll discuss Bullwinkle’s whereabouts tomorrow.

Global economics is in a terrible  pickle:  China has just posted some biggest-ever trade numbers with the USA which is presently running of fumes due to the shutdown.  A whole host of economic data sets, including things like the trade balance and what-not, have been stalled from release.

This will “double-up” in importance later this week when retail sales figures were supposed to be reported.  Now?  It’s anyone’s guess. IAFG.

Whether I’d even get out of bed to kick this around with you today was a matter of some debate.  On one shoulder was a financial angle kept whispering in my ear “People need to know and you have a fine sense of humor in the face of the looming long-term disaster…

While that angel was referring to our miserable economy ahead in 2020 which the democrats and socialists will use to sweep a fresh FDR Spend-o-crat into office, the devil on my other shoulder was screaming “It don’t matter.  Hell, be more like the democrats who are so concerned about the shutdown that they hit the beaches in Puerto Rico this weekend…” Yeah, there is that

Like most bought-and-paid for politicians – a disease that strikes both sides of the aisle – the partycrats brought along 109 lobbyists to foot the bill which is how “soft payoffs” work to our way of thinking.

My “shoulder discourse” was going on at 2:30 AM, but it was loud enough that I got up, put on a pot of coffee and started research for Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  Did you know there are 71 references in the Bible to “crowns?”  Can’t even begin to get into what we wandered through between 3 AM to now (a few minutes before 5 AM) as I started writing this.

With no breaking news due and the government sort of shut down, life is a lot more predictable.  Save Acts of God and Crazies, of course, I can go back to bed.

A few thoughts on gold before I go back to non-destructive pillow-testing:

You (should) already know that the US government may not call gold when Depression II becomes obvious (who owns gold, right?).  We do read some  mystical profit-sees in the headline that “Newmont to buy Goldcorp in $10 billion all-stock deal.”

The way we figure it, an acquisition like this in the gold sector tends to slap down the argument that Gold is a yeller dog.  Someone;s buying.

Since I have lots of time to write, I worked on prices paid for things in 2001.  Say you found bread on sale 3 loaves for $5 back then.  Today, three loaves would run you  a few pennies less than $8 bucks.  The 2001 to 2018 multiplier for general goods is about 1.594,

I know for a fact that gold was selling for $273.50 in September of 2001 because we bought some.  For gold to “break even” it needs to sell, for $435.96.  2001 price times the multiplier.

If you find it priced that low, send me a note and keep your mouth shut because its retailing in the $1,295 region this morning which is 859.04 of profit.

Now, it just so happens that in 2001 we were living on our sailboat at  South San Francisco (Oyster Point Yacht Club members, too, lol) I was already jotting down market numbers. Columnists keep notes and because in long economic waves, what comes around has usually been around.

Since 2001, how much has the price of gold gone up?  About 4.73491773308958 times.,

I wrote down the September 7, 2001 closing numbers, so let’s talk about here’s where the major indices SHOULD BE TRADING TODAY in order to have kept up with gold:

The  Dow had closed at 9,605.85.  To have kept up with gold, the Dow would need to open this morning where? (More than four times higher!)  45,482.90.  Based on the futures, the Dow is likely to open around 23,746.  Looks to stupid old me like Gold outperformed the Dow by a factor of almost 2!

If this is still too painful to bear, consider the S&P 500.  September 2001 it was running 1,085.78.  Which means to have kept up with Gold it needs to trade where today?  Try 5,141.98.  Reality is that we will be lucky to float over 2,570 today.  Again, factor near 2.

And the NASDAQ Compost?  Back on our September 2001 date it was running 1,687.70.  Which means to have kept up with gold, the NASDAQ Composite ought to be where?  7,991.12.  Instead we will be lucky not to drop to 6,926 today.

Is there a lesson from Ure in all of this?  I mean besides some very happy long-term Peoplenomics readers who (here and there) also bought one lone gold coin just so they could they could say they got things right?

Well, let’s see:

The first generalization is that we won (percentage wise) based on the fact that government has to water down the purchasing power of the “dollar.”

By making up a bit more money – year after year than is justified by economic growth – to paper over the soaring federal debt, the money’s purchasing power is watered-down and no one can figure out how “If times are so good, why ain’t my family getting ahead?”

This is what the financial industry doesn’t talk much about.  While we only present a small sample here, it’s one of those consciously made asset allocations.  We trust things ahead of paper (made-up) money.

That’s why we tell anyone who will listen: Rural and sustainable is where the future’s going. And hot on its heels are disappearing goods.  Oil,. solar, wind, and staying clear to most people. Thoughtless sheep willing to whine about work but not do much of it.

Independence is not just in thought.  It’s enshrined in our Constitution.  And the people who don’t read that (Because they are too busy in Puerto Rico?) have no business pretending to “lead.” Likely shouldn’t vote, either.

Second key lesson:  Tech despite the washout has been the hot long-term ticket.  Which is why – when we bemoan the lack of innovation – it isn’t just because we like new bling.  It’s because innovative products power the future of the whole world.

Third lesson?  Tech did pretty well – better than the more staid indexes.

Fourth:  This is a report not a recommendation.  Lightning tends to hit just one place and move on, lol.

Might sound like I got up on the wrong side of bed and have morphed into a GoM (grumpy old man) but  as you can infer, it’s supported by lots of data,

And, my-oh-my…ain’t that a bitch?

Other Notes

Since we are wildly egalitarian by nature, seeing that California prohibits gender-based auto insurance: report makes sense.  I mean much as anything does out there.

VA Secretary Wilkie: The VA is making real progress on suicide prevention for veterans – ’bout time.

Say, here’s a headline we might have written: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the voice of an ignorant generation.

And here’s one lucky federal worker: Wife of federal worker wins the lottery amid shutdown crisis.

The European socialists just can give the Brits their freedom as Theresa May says no Brexit more likely than no deal.  “Deal?”  Like when the people spoke on this years ago…I mean WTF?

And just when we thought there was hope for the world, An Egg Has Beaten Kylie Jenner’s Record for the Most Liked Photo on Instagram.

Yeah…back to bed.  I’ll get up if sanity breaks out.

Moron the ‘morrow…

30 thoughts on “Yes, Gold has Kicked the Market’s Butt”

  1. Rural and sustainable? Yeah, that’s certainly a goal but not with the snowflakes that have moved out here. All we have out here a kilowatt-guzzling mcmansions with 4 wheeled toys all around and puuurdy pickups as I like to call them that never get dirty but have beasts of engines under their hoods. This is what scares the pee-waddlin’ crap out of me in a real, extended SHTF scenario. They’ve already demonstrated the inclination to use “offishul” authorities to try and soak everyone for resources and enrich themselves in the long run. When it becomes a real extended resource war it’s going to be less than the civilized discourse of the city council one reads in “One Second After”. Yes, there will always be those that think they’re more equal than anyone else. But, at the very least, there’s one federal worker out there that will have enough to last beyond the next pay period.

    • Yeah…If’fn yer gonna equate your neighborhood to “One Second After,” you should be the folks up the hill and back over the holler. If the SHTF, out of sight is out of mind and the UMC people who live in the McMansions will eat each other before any of them remembers you exist. The thing all EOTWAWKI fiction writers forget, is the 3-day food supply. If you have a Brita or Zerowater jug, you can drink poopie river water for a long time, but that food thing, that’s gonna hit people where they live. When it does, on the 4th day mind you, they’re not going to think of you, at all, EVER, unless you’re the County cattle baron…

      The writers also overlook the fact that the energy potential of “gasoline” (to use the term loosely) degrades sufficiently over the first 5.5 months it exists on this side of the refinery walls, that it ceases to be a viable motor fuel for an ICR engine. i.e. even if one of those greenhorns steals Granny’s Edsel, nobody’s going to come a-callin’…

      • You need to get the next two books in the trilogy. I’m working my way through the second and the “Reivers” wind up in not too good a shape due to the fact they fell afoul, incorrectly but who cares when YOU write the rules and have the Blackhawks, of the provisional government and its sycophant government functionaries. That’s when it gets really sticky. People who are followers and good sheeple will be the ones the authorities leave alone. Independent thinkers that don’t fall in line get a few bursts of 20mm cannon fire.

  2. Oh my Professor, Long SPY Puts/Long Precious Metal Miners&Streamers seems to be working far! The Long S&P Puts has proven most difficult and sometimes painful ($ averaging down) as Bear Market rally’s (short squeezins) are often violent in nature. Flight to safety, flight to sanity is more like it. The US treasury yield curve across the whole 2-30 yr maturities is AFU, in my humble opinion. Powel and the rest of the blithering idiots at the NOT Federal Reserve are trapped by the Market now and appear to be losing control.
    Can you imagine what might happen in the market as PG&E gets a CASH call for ALL of Power Contracts going forward? Moody’s just down graded PG&E debt to JUNK rating. Time to sell the GOOD STUFF to cover the collateral call. Next up, how about Deutch Bank ?? No? Italian Banks look ripe..for Buy Ins.
    Never mind the Asian markets, with B2 stealth bombers in Hawaii, if any Chinese financial problems arise, we can just bomb the hell out them…Democrats and Lefties would LUV that; KILLING, Slaughtering and Destroying more innocent Peoples around the World. Just look at the reactions from those lovely Death “Eaters” in the DemoRat party over POTUS fulfilling yet another campaign promise- US Troop withdraw from Syria.

  3. So then the question becomes, “How far are you willing to go, to regain the constitution and protect your property, when civilization becomes not so civil ? One could definitely argue that it has not been remotely civil since John Kennedy’s assassination. Thank You Dulles Brothers !! But I digress. How much charity should one show for people, that for so long, have been part of the problem ?? We are all going to have to answer some very difficult questions in the very near future. If offered an opportunity to provide a far days work for food, and possibly shelter, ( and the barn might be all you get), then you are welcome. If then again you whine and shuffle around like you just can’t muster the effort, then the road is the answer. And if you come back to steal, then you might just be taking a dirt nap !!

    • Point out the local edible vegetation, like kudzu the leaves can be eaten like salad greens, the roots can be used like a potato. Learn these things not just for the unprepared, but for you and yours if the need rears its ugly head. Every region has them.

      • A very good point, but so many people are incapable of this action. They are city folk and would not know what is edible and was is poisonous. And I am very capable of survival in the wild, and would only ask everyone to prepare for the grocery stores to be too expensive and empty of stock

    • How far are we willing to go? Do you have a private army made up of mercs? Catherine Austin Fitts over here ( is talking about people in power putting together their own security organizations. How long before they go rogue and we wind up with a “Postman” situation? I’ve got a few bullets but not that many. Best case scenario would be the U.S. military taking control and wiping out these units while helping to reset our political system back to square one with none or very little of the special interest groups left to meddle in the affairs of the people. I don’t hold out much hope for that, though.

      • Communities will need to band together to offset the roving bands of thieves. Only because there are people who think they do not have to make an effort or obey rules of politeness and civility.

      • Curtis, that’s the “Catch-22.” If people band together for defense, subsistence living becomes impossible. Unless the community already has a renewable local food source in-place, and the kiddies know how to milk a bull, it will starve out. Communities which have such a sustainable lifestyle, if they’re known, will be early targets for any such roving bands…

    • Serge.. don’t forget your television.. or other appliances that offer voice tech..

      our television remote.. read the disclaimer to.. you give them permission to control just about anything that should be kept private.. other community programs are the same way..

    • Unfortunately Mark this article, just like the previous one in the WSJ, requires a subscription to read.

      • Oh you can get it Bill..unfortunately All news is replicated and scripted..all the stories come off of the same source pages.. That’s why you have to check so many to get the true story.
        I usually scan something like fifty in various area’s and countries.
        The really important stuff is either at the end if section a or b.. They dump the important stuff there just so they can say..we informed you.. Then discredit what they wrote

        WSJ is an offshoot of several papers each runs the same stories.. Depending on your area they even put a different slant on the story to fit your neighborhoods..

      • There is no slant. They are just telling the same story that is so obvious to everyone. When there is a local urban and fatal fire, you will see all local network news stations covering the same fire, but from different reporters in their 7 and 11:00 pm time slots.

        It’s the same with that Financial Times and WSJ situation. They see a chaotic and out of control President and they report on it.

  4. FAKE GOV’T SHUTDOWN CONTINUES. PT will approve the bill to give everyone back pay lost during the shutdown. Mark MAY have a few valid points about PT’s leadership ability. Why continue the shutdown If you are going to eventually pay everyone. PT should stop with the “I probably will” & declare a National Security Emergency & start building. The Dems aren’t going to change their minds. They are focused on impeaching PT & thumbing their noses at the Deplorables who elected PT.

    PT should close his Twitter account & do something except bluster. Otherwise, it looks like PT only cared about tax reform to benefit himself & screw the rest of his promises. PT hasn’t even asked Mexico for a dime. They were supposed to pay for the Wall. The $1.6 billion PT currently has could be used to buy warrior drones.

    • Wow ECS…I am proud of you…you’s all about Common sense. If everyone would just use common sense to assess Trump, they would see the light. Trump cares only about Trump. He cares not about you and I. This has been his motive from his early days as a playboy. If everyone would just read Bob Woodward’s and Michael Lewis’s books..They are award winning authors and their books have become Oscar winning movies. Lewis multiple times with the true stories behind Moneyball, Blind Side and Big Short. Those books along with the Showtime series, Circus, really paint a picture of how inept Trump is.

      Woodward and Lewis both taped their interviews. No fiction or fake news in them. The series Circus is all taped…obviously…it shows the timeline to date of Trumps shady travails. Enjoy

      • EXACTLY…

        “Trump cares only about Trump. ”

        He doesn’t want to see his wealth reduced to a few loaves of bread.
        Its also why he has such a great employee retention reputation.
        The wife and I just had this discussion this morning over her company being faced with cuts and budget increases. They reduce staff at medical facilities..the perpetual work short shift job..the annual reduction..
        To train a new employee costs $$$ my guess off the top is between ten and fifteen grand. So he can calculate what the cost of wages .. Lets say ten dollars above going wage..benefits another seven to ten..figure 2080 hrs average.. Per year.. He pays out close to thirty..
        Reverse that.. You have a company that has fifty percent plus turnover..easily he can save a million dollars just off of overtime and training.
        It is the same thing with our country and the dollar working for job security increased local manufacturing will not only generate more wealth for himself. More beer and chip sales for his golf courses. Improve the local community and secure the dollar bill.
        I call it a no brainer .. By working for his own good is only going to benefit people like myself struggling at the bottom by increasing jobs and build a beaten self esteem. It will also Reduce federal tax revenue that is presently being allotted to federal programs to give financial assistance to one third of the population presently getting them.

  5. Gold: Bid $436 Ask $1,295. Shows there is no incentive to sell gold. My goal is to slowly buy gold (visually superior to silver) but mostly silver (cheaper & may provide a better % return over time). It will give me comfort as I slow down with age in an attempt to appreciate life & not the financial gain it affords.

  6. All of a sudden is getting cold all of a sudden you’re getting old all of a sudden what are you going to do with all that gold and silver all of a sudden your house is freezing with 20 or 30 feet of snow all of a sudden you wish you Earthship and with yours that makes the difference between opinions and beliefs water all of a sudden gold and silver stocks don’t matter even crypto what matters is what you stored 4 long long long winter that makes the difference between survival.

    That makes the difference between opinions and beliefs

    Gremlin they’re not talking about that because it’s icing over there not telling you the true weather in Europe because it’s getting colder 10 15 ft with a snow and then they’re predicting 20 more feet of snow wow aren’t you glad you live in the US or in Arizona or Florida or California


  7. Get your pantry ready frolio stuff out to the wolves dogs and cats and the homeless but do restock Emory stock more than you’ve ever restock before because the future is it going to be too bright around the world so the bigger your pantry the bigger your chances of success survival but make sure you put lots of seeds in there and shovels and hoes so that you can manually get out there and do the work I mean where’s the gas going to come from I would be thinking about Earth Ship I’d be thinking about putting things on the ground to tap into the Earth’s warrant because there’s a chilling Factor that’s getting ready to come at us and it’s going to come out as strong how you survived first by filling your pantry II by filling your seed reserves and 3rd by making some kind of Earthship or green house with underground tubes that pull the heat from the Earth to keep your Greenhouse from freezing throughout those long long winter months that are coming

  8. Think passive thanks super passive not active but passive think everything passive create your whole environment to be passive where you don’t have to do anything but it’s created for yo
    That way when things fail and you’re not able your past setup will extend and prolong your life

  9. Think passive heat passive Cooling and thank past food that you stored and thank passive seeds that you can use to sprout and eat or to feed the animals that will be in a frozen area

    Think more than one source of water spring well or from Gathering from your rooftops in large containers

    Thank about getting cases of antiseptic mouthwash this’ll be your best defense against cavities and infections thank

    Think about getting a big case of canes walking canes this is going to help you through any environment whether it’s ice, mud , or rocks

    Set up everything that you do around the Sun the summer the southern Sun

    Be prepared for sudden dilations

    And above everything else be unifiable

    Okay y’all have a good day May all beings be lovingly fulfilled financially fulfilled and readily fulfilled so be it

  10. You would think it should be illegal to buy our politician’s or sway the way they are to vote. They make me sick to my stomach on how bad the whole system is.
    That dumb wall.. What’s totally odd is they will use it as a campaign platform AGAIN… UGGG.
    For two decades it was my responsibility to make sure that pot was maintained at work.. Then they went to the pre packaged pod machines and called me to see if I wanted it.. I had it for almost 25 years .it died .. It was like losing a child..
    Well we all must go.. I had plenty of it wasn’t to bad .. Since I had plenty of reward points I bought a newer pot..

    Oh my God..I am makes the best cup of coffee.. And since we drink a lot of coffee around here I got the three year extended warranty so a total of four years.
    For another debate.. Most people know I age beef.. Now I am considering..should I make a dry curer for home made salami.. I make bologna and bratwurst..decisions decisions.. It wouldn’t take much to add the components I would need to my aging mini fridge.. And I have most of the parts already..

  11. George, If the world is going to hell in a handbag, what is the solution? At lest your opinion which you haven’t stated

  12. With all the mess in DC.. I doubt seriously if I will ever vote for a democrat ever again .. it is just crazy that they play these stupid games..
    Now. big question.. if the president and the secretary of defense .. make the assessment that the USA is in a state of a national emergency to get the wall using the unlimited funds by our military and bypassing congress all together.. would that kick in the legislation that has been previously passed by the do nothing crowd…would or could we be put in a state of martial law?

    from the way I read it.. I think we could be as a country in a state of a national emergency.. we do have an army marching on our border and our congress is in some sunny locality playing spin the bottle with some lobbyists..

    considering that we positioned our bombers last weekend in the event of a military event happening.. and back to touch and goes on other countries border defenses.. all stupid.. a very dangerous game they all are playing.. its sort of like driving fast and horsing around swerving .. it only takes an instant to loose control of the car you are in.. and with Congress playing footsie with the lobbyists and acting like toddlers fighting over a coveted toy or pouting makes me believe that we are basically in a car on the expressway driving fast with no drivers in any of the cars on the road around us. All while being in a position of financial implosion…. phew…

    Now that scares me..

  13. As long as you can sell Gold or use Dollar bills then its ok..
    But if I have two rib eye steaks a couple of potatoes and there isn’t any food available and only Mr. Gold finger exchange to give me what he thinks its worth..well the steaks will make a nice meal or two can keep the shiny stuff..

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