Wuhan Fallout: Is Market Panic Contagious?

Extra-strong coffee this morning as we eye the futures market with only one question in mind:  Will the Trend Channel hold?

Let’s throw on some theme music (“ Lifetime Piling Up” works…) and drop back over the past couple of weeks.  I’ve been saying both here on the free side, and also on the  Peoplenomics.com subscriber side, that we are due for a medium to largish Wave IV down.

The problem with wave counts is that while they often give you  an idea of what to expect, they are oftentimes inconclusive as to  timing.  With futures down over 400 on the Dow earlier, we look to the music sage Jesus Jones who summed it up:  Right Here, Right Now…”

As you can see, the early futures had us dropping to the bottom of the trend channel.  Where this gets to be a horse race is whether (or not) we bounce and go up for a fifth wave into April, sometime.

Remember, we’ve derived something of a soft pattern in the 65-70 week range.  That is, when there’s a bottom wash-out (March-April 2009) you get a lot of Big Money come in and hold for at least 52 weeks to lock-in the long-term gains rate.  Then..10-20 weeks on, it’s somewhat reasonable to expect there will be a pullback because smart money pockets reduced-tax winnings, and leaves the casino.  Selling at the top to (pardon me for being blunt here) idiots.

We can toss out some date-ranges to at least think about:  If we pull back here, then get some “good news” and the market then rallies, which is what a 5th and final wave up really ought to do, then a top might come in the range of March 16  (basis a 65 week run from the weekly Aggregate low the week of 12/17/2018) to perhaps April 20th (basis a 70 week run).

This is not investment advise – anyone willing to listen to a crackpot in the woods ought to have their head examined, for sure.  On the other hand, a confluence of events here might be penciled in as a “short streak of good news” for a month and a half, then a resurgence of horrible, hand-wringing, scary news.

Looking into the future, imagine that there’s some positive news out of China.  An announcement that “things are well in hand…” in a few days (which we’d be very suspicious of, BTW!) followed by an orderly end of the senate trial, but no removal for Donald Trump, followed by some glowing economic reports to splash the last bit of “feel good” going into a major top.

Oil would firm, precious metals would firm, the BTC crowd would rub their hands gleefully, and few would notice small moving pieces.  Although our news analyst up in Canada did:  that this NoCoV2019 outbreak happened to coincide with turning on 5G in Wuhan…

At any rate, I’ve got a possible market high (ever so lightly) penciled-in around Tax Day.  And from there, America may be set to enter “perfect storm” territory.

What would that look like?  Think about what could go wrong:

  • Democrats would be furious that their coup to throw out the 2016 election will have failed.
  • We notice John Bolton keeps popping up in headlines like “Trump Tied Ukraine Aid to Inquiries He Sought, Bolton Book Says .” Color us skeptical of Herr Bolton, since the book hype appears in the distinctly anti-Trump NY Times AND it’s a Book and that’s Revenue.  So repeat after me (again):  “Everything’s a Business Model.
  • Bernie could be “big-shotted” out of the July convention.
  • We can;t help but notice that America’s leading succubus is back in headlines for a Sundance film.
  • Oh, and Bloomie’s got deeper pockets than all.  Thus, when someone outspends Bernie, and he gets his socialist ass properly kicked, we expect the old October Revolutionary tactics to roll and America gets Bern’ed by radical sofas’s  (socialist-facists).   Project Veritas  already has the threats on tape.
  • About here, let’s toss in advance warnings with Q1 earnings that “due to (blah blah) the outlook for the balance of the year is dimmer...
  • Maybe it’s also time for the Fed’s Repo Depot to begin weaning the just-bailed hedge fund off the financial teat which, here lately, has been milked at double-D rates.
  • Hmmm…what else?  Well…what about a re-flash of virus news out of China?  You know – got a handle on it, covered up, then BLAM – back at us.  Only this time lock down all international travel.
  • Which then sequentially craters hotels, car rentals, ride-sharing apps. and also takes down the food and beverage industry and entertainment venues.  Now pension and hedge funds are slammed to the ropes.
  • And in this, the Fed has to hyperinflate.

Did you happen to notice that gold and silver and bitcoin and…(list yourself, I’m not going to do all your thinking for you!) are going up?  This is the Great Keynesian Hoax.

The price of goods is more or less constant (based on their utility value and demand curves).  What’s jiggered and twisted is the purchasing power of money.  Gold hasn’t change in utility value at all.  It looks like price going up but the fact is fiat money is continuously watered down.  People are such dopes, are they not?

We could go on... (We still think Iran’s got vengeance in mind, hack attacks on the web are a cinch, along with additional major data breaches, a new Business survey suggests US labor market may have peaked, blah, blah, blah and so forth…)

Main thing to keep an eye on is that the market may be a better indicator of future events than you ever imagined.

Optimistically, we drop to, or just under, the trend line the futures nail us to at the open.  OR, we break down to the top of a Wave 1, but don’t go through it.  (If we do, then listen closely because the financial end of the world could be at hand…)

In which case, in addition to isolation, you’ll want to have the guns oiled, the grub stores full, and keep the family Bible handy.

In the meantime, not too much other than virus fears and phony money woes to tank markets, but tomorrow we will see how durable goods and the Case-Shiller housing report look.  Might they be good enough to spin things up after we kiss the line in the sand in the early trading today?   Turnaround Tuesday, anyone?

And supporting a move to new highs might be stories like J&J scientific officer ‘pretty confident’ they can create coronavirus vaccine as outbreak widens.

We like to over-prep and then under-react.  Our view is never to play for maximum gains.  We play for minimum losses.  Think radical, play conservative.  Like poker, you see?

Stay tuned.

Kobe: Death by FIKT

FIKT is accident investigator-speak for “flight into known terrain.”  Happens  most often when a pilot is flying below instrument flight rule minimums and especially when a helicopter is “outside the flight envelope” and encounters a mechanical.  Without altitude to auto-rotate (a non-trivial task under IFR conditions no matter what), terrain is encountered with predictably disastrous results.

Which based on reports thus far seem like what will come out of the investigation into Sunday’s crash that killed legendary sports figure Kobe Bryant and a daughter.  Total body count in the Santa Monica Hills was 9 in heavy fog.

While You Were Distracted…

Retiring Border Patrol chief: Crisis at southern border demands action didn’t get much play.

Climate hysteria continues: Burning Trees For Heating Won’t Help With Climate Change: UK Think Tank.  Really?  They couldn’t figure it out without help?  (Am I the only one who remembers the world was once full of trees?  (Disclosure: we own and live on a tree farm!)  Skip semantics and back to  sequestration please.

We’re still in a low intensity conflict (LIC) over future energy.  See Fresh Russian-U.S. ‘Skirmish’ Reported in Syria for details.

A follow-up appears after our  Peoplenomics piece this weekend on FunVestments.  In the  NY Times read about how Collectors Are Spending Thousands on Video Games They Will Never Play.

And in today’s over-tweeted, over-shared, fake-liked, and brain-damaged world, try not to look surprised to learn that Cruelty To Animals Gets More Media Coverage Than Beheaded Christians.  Not only should you ask who is making such editorial gaffes, (leftist journos with agendas selling their own brands of hate and shame)  but you should also “vote with your wallet.” Avoid buying publications that don’t reflect more critical thinking skills…

Why read crap from people dumber than you?  I’ve always been fascinated that the smartest publications are not the mostly widely read.  In fact, usually it’s the opposite. Do we have a stupid gene that has been activated by phones, or what?

Ask yourself “Why do I watch/read/subject myself to ‘news’ if I can’t use it?”.

Because there’s very little that is personally-actionable on any particular day and the hysterical media is terribly over-built on a premise of neuron-free glitz and self-importance pretending to be useful.  But, you already knew  that, right?

The actionable news today comes down to “Buy more rubber gloves and bleach and BTFD if you’re a gambler. Too bad about Kobe.”  How to make two dozen networks and countless websites out of that is a sociological mystery.

Write when you get rich,


47 thoughts on “Wuhan Fallout: Is Market Panic Contagious?”

  1. For the Woo Woo Dept:There’s an episode of The Legends of Chamberlain Heights,a 2016 cartoon show on Comedy Central,that shows Kobe emerging from a crashed helicopter.

    The episode is Number 8,Season 1,available online.

    • TD, good find. I didn’t verify.

      The latest rumor is these celebrities sell their souls…. As a result of the sale agreement the celebrity – and those in on the soul sales complex – know in advance when and how death will come for themselves and those in the club.

      That is, those in the know knew Kobe would crash in the helicopter and those not in the know wonder how they knew.

  2. Having been forced back into the markets via an inheritance I was looking at streaming and royalty companies last night as a possible way of participating in a PM boom. Waiting until after a “wave 5 down” to make such a move may be a better option if it’s precipitous enough to take everything with it. Any chances of the US$ losing half its value is backed up with what I have under the fake rock in the back yard. (Yes, I need the back yard tilled up for the Spring planting so any local “midnight gardeners” reading this will help)

  3. Rock and Roll Jesus! Cue the hallelujah choir…”I’m looking over my dead dog Rover..”

    “I just love it when a plain comes together!”- Hannibal

    So the ChiComs steal the NoCoV2019 virus from BSL-4 lab in Canada, and let it “slip”out in the wild in Wuhan City. Now having learned previously how to hide and cover-up Viral Outbreaks from previous SARS epidemic, we now see the majority of reported deaths in China to be from Pneumonia/Community Acquired Pneumonia – no outbreak here- keep on moving along. Yeah yeah we got this ALL under control.

    Indo-Pak, ME/Iran-Iraq, Norks, watch the Kerch Straight – its about to warm up again..

    The only question on the coots mind..How Low Can U Go? SPY Puts anyone?

  4. George,

    I have two thoughts for today, one about the corona virus and the other about the “climate change” hand wringers.

    One the topic of the corona virus, I enjoyed your “fiction” piece about an engineered virus. To take that concept one step further, how better to win the “trade” war than unleash a virus that has a greater effect on your opponent than your population? Plus given the fact that the Chinese have a much greater head count, they can withstand greater losses. Chinese have always looked at the long game, and they now have “plausible deniability”.

    Item two is “climate change”. Climate change has been occurring since the beginning of earth. The records that these “hand wringers” sight are barely more than a century old. If we want true records of “climate change”, we should ask the aborigines. After all, they have a history of close to 40,000 years according to some sources. Seems they should some insight that we would be wise to heed.

    But just to do my part, in 2003 I had 94,000 pines trees planted. Local forestry rep says he thinks all but a few hundred survived. I call it my second retirement fund. Will select cut in a year or two, and replant. Most of these trees are an new insect resistant variety and have reached a height of 35 feet already. Wildlife loves the cover they provide. My little way of helping the climate without a tax.

    • Curious how this math works out, might make an interesting article.

      Just back of the napkin math… 26″” average tree, $1800, per acre (around 4000 trees per acre) This number doesn’t feel right. Seems way to low for that much timber. But it is pretty expensive to harvest so that number could be net from cutting and transport.


      Cost to plant tree is around .02$ per tree. Add in property tax, insurance + 20 years of time and cost to prepare land (from previous harvest). What kind of return this turns into? Certainly any profit is better then idle land and certainly low labor after the preparation and planting? Like money in the bank, guess it really centers on how much land preparation is required to plant the trees and maintain firebreaks and such. Do you have to clean up old trunks or can you just plant in between stumps and just let nature take its course. That would seem to attract nasty insects. Maybe also get some hunting leases ?

      What about something like planting pecan trees? After 20 years you could get regular harvest income, vs a one time cut?

      • Data points: We did a selective cut and netted $14,500 in 2004 or 2005. Adjust for inflation. Double now because we could clear cut.
        Problem with pecans? Labor (no thanks!) and with southern pine and a 5-gallon jug of creosote and some rock salt to put down hole, you can put up pole buildings till hell ain’t a food way. Just me and my chain saw…
        Tax is $500/year, so another cutting when comes will pay for taxes and let more light on the panels and the garden..
        We rolled our 2004 gain on trees into a brand new Kubota, brush hog, box blade, rake, and such. 179’ed the equipment and haven’t sold the tractor yet, so no recaptcha blues…

  5. Be-headed Christians – is that [redacted as excessively inflammatory – g]

    Never before in any ALL of Human History of beings living on Earth have we EVER had just 1 God. AUFKM?

    What Proof ?anything -just one smidgen of ANY Supernatural proof of Existence of a God or Ure precious Jesus/Mohammad – just 1 stinking iota of Proof ..other than FAITH = Wishing It True.

    There aint NO Alien Savoir coming to Save your SOUL..EVER

    U R prisoners – deal with it accordingly or not – U have unlimited opportunities at a redo..over and over and over…

    One of the funniest lines I have ever seen on these pages..beheaded [redact 2 – g]

    Stitches…keep a family bible handy – sure might stop a 22 round..bwahahaha

    • Everyone has faith – of one kind, or another. Statistically, most of this site’s readers are people who acknowledge there is something “bigger than the individual.”
      Labeling anyone’s faith (bwahahaha…etc) is, to me, a warning light that a “closed mind” is nearby.
      In my world – since I don’t have all knowledge – I’m open to the idea that Truth about life may be – like cosmic rays – well dispersed.
      On the other hand, there’s no particular evidence for “prison planet” theory, than there are any others.
      When one does not spend enough time in quiet contemplation and sincerely listening to what’s going on, I’ll grant you that it may be confusing at times. How can a religion be founded upon a vengeful God on the one hand (smiting and such) and yet at the same time spawn a “turn the other cheeker”? Yet, that’s the storyline.
      Me? I’ve come to the notion that much is hidden in the stories – how to traverse space-time if I read it right, certainly where to find natural gas seeps near the burning bush story and very much more. Hints at extreme anti-aging are in there, too.
      Since you don’t seem to have a family bible, you may not be clear on its purposes (among which is NOT stopping a 22 round!).
      You see, in our family Bible we have dates of significance to our family. Date of mon’s passing, and dad’s.
      You completely f*cked-up the reference, but the fault must be mine. For I thought most of Urban Readers would have a passing knowledge of this central role in family continuity – which was my reference in today’s column.
      I apologize for expecting too much. I just through everyone listened not just with their ears but with their hearts.
      Not the first time I’ve been wrong, though.

      • George,
        Ah. Yes. Faith.
        I recall how Faith shaped the our brilliant Middle Eastern policy.
        Remember when W. didn’t have to talk to his own father (who had stopped short of toppling Saddam) because had talked to a ‘Higher Father?’
        Unfortunately for us the Father talking apparently turned out to be Shi’ite.
        Maybe, just possibly, the lesson that Conservatives might take from only the greatest US fiasco of my lifetime! would be that facts, reasoning and commonsense trump faith.
        Best, Mike.

      • “How can a religion be founded upon a vengeful God on the one hand (smiting and such) and yet at the same time spawn a “turn the other cheeker”

        After reading several texts that are not included in our bible.. I got a clear realization.. the creator.. is not a vengeful god.. those portions of the texts we read and call absolute were written for their communities and control of the people of the time period..
        Today we would never consider nailing a man to a cross because he was conceived by a single woman and helped someone on the sabbath. His only sin was he taught loving one another rather than vindictive hate. The older texts looked at as a whole the image becomes as clear as day. The true creator never wanted us to be the way we have become.
        Anyway that’s my take on faith and religion


      “What Proof ?anything -just one smidgen of ANY Supernatural proof of Existence of a God or Ure precious Jesus/Mohammad – just 1”


      big boom my ass……..

      • In my younger days,I was involved with an enterprise that is only legal if done by a bank.One day I noticed in my horoscope that the authorities were going to nail me on April 10,so I folded my operation.For several months afterward,the authorities questioned people about me before finally giving up.To this day,they must be still shaking their heads.

        What better proof could there be of a Supreme Being?How else could such a system exist?The Rothschilds sure didn’t invent it.

    • The Roman historian Josephus (admittedly an agnostic Jew who preferred serving Rome rather than the Sanhedrin) pointedly recounts the execution of one Yeshua, aka the Grecian named Jesus, by Pilate due to his fomenting unrest and political insurrection. Siddhartha Gautama, ‘the’ original Buddha, is historically validated, as is Muhammad, founder of Islam. All preached faith – faith that we are not randomly begotten with and which has no meaningful purpose. No, faith, compassion, generosity and community service will emerge victorious over vanity and materialism. Famous mythologist Joseph Campbell noted that all cultures across the globe embrace similar themes and ‘stories of the gods.’ Same story themes, same deity characteristics. Campbell then brilliantly stated that “mythology is someone else’s religion.” He deduced that all elements of global myths/religions are embodied C. J. Jung’s psychological archetypes, meaning myth/religion is a likely universal human manifestation of our collective unconscious. Why might this be so? How are our brains wired to manifest such a great untruth? Maybe because we are programmed to believe.

      • For my part, I will trust any figurehead of faith over any head of government or any political party types therein.
        When someone gets partisan on here, I often mutter: I don’t believe this. But I believe I’ll have a drink now…

      • Mean no disrespect Family Bibles – yes Deplorables have them – big huge leather bound several 100 years old – not a lineage device though more like old text books with backwards ass info for weak sheep..

        Josephus wrote a black comedy for the his masters the emperor Vespasian..”the Sun/Son Commeth” was not some crook on a cross whose life Josephus pleaded for – it was/is the son Titus.

        Mohammad historically recounted by the Jesuits..hmmm

        Buddha – pulease anybody can sit and meditate under a Bao tree
        for several years – oh wait someone is doing that now – again.

        But hell I’ll wait for Kali to wake Shiva again so we can get on with next global destruction events..perhaps even Thor & Odin can get on with killing the Fanrir, Sigurd and Loki..oh my!

    • “There aint NO Alien Savoir coming to Save your SOUL..EVER”

      Lol lol actually I could debate on either side and have with atheists in days gone by.
      And granted anyone that has try read and contemplated the bible.. will point out that we pick and chose what we believe. Even in my chosen religious group theres teachings of old that we would never do..even though the founders were persecuted and chased from their homes hunted because of their beliefs they still taught that anyone that married or had intercourse with someone of another race that any children should be eliminated etc. The bible is chock full of those laws of old.
      You have to look beyond the laws written for their communities and see the whole. Ten commandments.
      The absolute teachings are simple straight forward and simple in nature.
      Its man that complicates the issues. The same way lobbyists complicate. The laws of today by writing garbage in a simple law.

  6. George,
    throw in the towel.
    the dow turned down on armstrong’s turn date.
    just sayin’
    dave wilkinson

  7. This downturn looks like the little restful siesta the Market needs to muster the firepower for the final rally to 1929 redux. PN subscribers will know when that time is at hand. Be warned financial sinners. For you atheists out there, Jesus doesn’t respond to stock market prayer requests. This could be considered a fact proving God exists.

    Bye the bye, where is Andy? He disappeared.

  8. @my amigo eastcoastdeplorable:

    I felt much the same as you regarding the existence of a higher being until I drown in 1978.
    This happened in a municipal pool in a little town in Alabama, and I was a regional air personality on a Rock n Roll radio station. My on-air buddies had been razzing me as part of the promotion because I couldn’t swim….kinda funny a guy who can’t swim doing a swimming pool promo, eh. So I had a notion the lifeguards might be throwing me in, and I even took them aside to tell them I actually COULDN’T swim, so make sure you guys jump in after me if you do it.
    About time to wrap it up and call it a day, 3 muscle-bound teenagers grabbed me and in I went. I was thrashing about and they thought I was being goofy…but then when I didn’t come up realized they had just killed a “celebrity” and dove in to rescue me. By this time, my spirit, soul, whatever you want to call it, had separated from my body after giving up on trying to breathe chlorine pool water; the terror had subsided, and I was hovering over the pool scene. I could focus on the Humans below and read their emotions. Cool, eh? Some were concerned with being charged with murder, others were concerned with their dinner menu, go figure. I then realized that I has no longer in my body and had some new abilities, including connection to some sort of massive databank with answers to all the questions I ever had about life after death. I had all the answers! And since I was hovering, I found I could fly. About the time I was high enough to see the curvature of the Earth, on my way to the Moon’s dark side, the lifeguards had succeeded in reviving me and with that here came all the pain and sickness from being dead for a few minutes. And in order to come back into a body I lost 99% of all that knowledge.

    So my friend, whatever you want to call it, God, a higher power, Jesus, etc. we Humans have a spark within us that little voice inside your head has always existed, and always will exist, and is connected to something bigger and more wonderful than we can even imagine. And the one thing I didn’t forget from the experience is this…love is what life is all about, to express and experience in the form of a Human being.


    • I am so glad you related this for our limited experience friend. We’re not trying to sell, or preach. Someone who has never floated or been drawn to that deep sky blue tunnel of light is bound to be skeptical. You’re entitled to your view, but remember when it happens some people offered to give you some ideas on what’s ahead. Dr. Raymond Moody’s original research on resuscitation and heart attack and “overdose” saves, and various other cases like shocks and such, all drive home the point as I’ve tried to articulate a couple of places in my books:

      Imagine coming into life is “like landing on a power line” of sorts. When we leave, we fly off to the next place.

      Stupid is the bird who doesn’t see they’re on a power line. And dumber still, the view that that one power line is the only of its sort in the universe.

      Yelling at the tide doesn’t make it go back, and the illusion of “one-sided” life is persistent. Until it happens. Then? Not so much.

      We will all be together when we pass on, so perhaps a good laugh when we get there is in order.
      Or not

    • “we Humans have a spark within us that little voice inside your head has always existed, and always will exist, and is connected to something bigger and more wonderful than we can even imagine”

      What’s funny is I have read several texts where its mentioned that the laws of the creator were written on everyone’s heart.. with the genetic engineering that we are researching even now. I can totally see that as a definite possibility.


  9. It may be worth remembering that Chinese are conditioned to associate sickness as a taboo to be hidden and denied. Consider the first individual in Canada positively identified as stricken with the coronavirus waited a day after reaching Canada to seek mainstream medical intervention in spite of inflight and customs illness messaging, AND allegedly being symptomatic during the journey. Now the spouse is possibly a positively infected person as well… Of course the government health spin doctors offer the encouraging prescribed statement that their messaging successfully filtered through the family. Belie ve.

    While on things Chinese, isn’t it this week that the 5G Huawei Heiress is in a Vancouver courtroom on extradition to the USA matters? Recently the CTV network offered a report noting that her private security detail was the same one that protected the Chinese consulate last year. One imagines the defendant’s mansion will remain owner-occupied.

  10. FIKT is exactly what it was for Kobe. The Sikorsky helicopter is dual-engine, so an engine failure is extremely unlikely. The foggy conditions were extreme enough that the sheriff and fire helicopters were grounded. Yet a bold pilot flying a celebrity entourage is motivated to ‘get there’. There are OLD pilots, and there are BOLD pilots. There are no OLD, BOLD pilots. He was flying 176 mph when he flew into the mountainside in the fog.

  11. Ah yes, pity those of little faith,

    “…sometimes” pictures “have two meanings…” ?

    The global deities appear to be waving their wands with MSMs publicizing this week chaste reports to offend the minions’ Victorian sensibilities with picnics beneath the Queen’s bedroom window in the garden of Buckingham Palace between Prince Andrew and socialite Ms. Maxwell. The Lady at times had arrived at the Palace in a Range Rover according to the former Royal Protection Officer quoted in the reports.

    Ironically the current 2020 reports picture the officer from the time of his court appearances in an elegantly tailored chalkstripe suit prior to being found guilty of operating a multi-million pound pyramid fraud scheme during his period of assignment to the Palace. His spouse, found innocent, is cropped out from the 2009 photo. Evidence given in the case included at the time mention of the pair’s “his & hers” Range Rovers. (You anticipated Mini Coopers as in The Italian Job?) The Judge went on to complete a stellar term assignment at the Serious Fraud Office.

  12. “What Proof ?anything -just one smidgen of ANY Supernatural proof of Existence of a God or Ure precious Jesus/Mohammad ”

    EC.. I have had quite a few very educated men of science ask me why I have the faith that I do..granted I didn’t have the experience WD has had.. but at three time in my life I’ve been in a real pickle.. no where to turn . Respiration setting in and no one to turn to.. each time after I’ve given up. I have had someone completely random we that hasnt have any knowledge come to my rescue. The last time there was a note in it saying .. you’ll never believe this but I cant get you out of my head. I keep having this thought that you need this and money was in the envelope.. i to believe that we have an angel or spirit that follows us.
    Working on the floors of medical facilities I have many stories of mistery..
    My suggestion.. don’t believe if that’s your position.. but when no one is around..get down on your knees and pray earnestly about an issue that sincerely troubles you.. dont pray about getting personal items it’s not about being a Sears catalog..
    I believe that the heavenly spirit guides those that need help to me to.. it’s kind of freaky yet I totally get it..
    Anyway try it.. then wait to see if you get an answer.. he doesnt always the way you want but later the reason comes clear.
    Whether or not it’s a single spirit or entity or a collective similar to Hinduism..

  13. Presently the city of Wuhan has disappeared from the John Hopkins University systems dot jhu dot edu coronavirus spread livemap.

  14. NK closing their border with China is a major marker event.

    I”m thinking that when Andy comes out of hibernation it will either mean another marker event or spring coming to Washington State.

  15. Experts estimate at least 4,000 people infected with coronavirus and cases could reach UK

    …disease modelling experts from Imperial College, London say the true figure in the city of Wuhan alone – the source of the outbreak – could be 4,000 and as high as 9,700 in the worst case scenario.


    Last Friday, the modelers at Imperial estimated the worst-case number of infections at 3800-4000. Dunno if this virus is going to be a major concern, but IMO it’s certainly going to be a good excuse to practice “safe living…”

    BTW, confirmed cases (by WHO) as of January 25, 5am GMT: China 1,300 cases, including 2 in Macau and 5 in Hong Kong, France 3, Japan 2, Australia 1, Malaysia 3, Nepal 1, Singapore 3, South Korea 2, Taiwan 3, Thailand 4, United States 2, Vietnam 2, Israel 2

    …And this IS scary: The virus becomes communicable before an infected person begins to show signs or symptoms of infection.

    I believe I’ll order another box of N95s tonight.

    • Official estimates are probably lagging a bit:


      With NK sealing borders and HK severely limiting traffic, you have to wonder what other countries will do this week.

      The idea that the US or any other country has the infrastructure to deal with this level of health crisis without a systemic meltdown is probably not realistic. The Chinese are certainly throwing manpower and propaganda at the problem.

      I like the P100 filters for tractor work.

      • “I like the P100 filters for tractor work.”

        I favor 3M. The top-certified of their P100s is the 8293. Every place that’s “cheap” is suddenly out of stock. Zoro is the only place I found them, where their price per was under $10 — (that is, under $200 per 20-mask case.) Home Depot has imposed a 10-mask limit on ordering N/R/P-95 or 100 masks, at least online, so the panic may be on…

        BTW 3M’s book retail on these is $11.97 ea. For extra credit, check out the price various retailers list as the “retail price.” ;-)

    • The contagious to death rate is only 3%. Wasn’t SARS 10%. Plus the Chinese didn’t sit on this one for a couple of months before announcing the problem exists & creating a vaccine. Biotechnology at work.

      • Actual WHO 2003 report said:

        Case fatality ratio
        WHO has today revised its initial estimates of the case fatality ratio of SARS. The revision is based on an analysis of the latest data from Canada, China, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, and Viet Nam.
        On the basis of more detailed and complete data, and more reliable methods, WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15%.

        On the other hand, too early to calc a solid number of Wuham NoCoV2019 as the cases are expanding faster than disease running course. Be patient

      • SARS was around 6%, worldwide, all demographics considered. MERS was ~40%, but on a much smaller number of infections.

        Wuhan is in NE China, not too far from Korea. Isn’t this the same region from which SARS sprang…?

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