(Cozumel, Mexico) – The world is not ending today.  Nor is it likely to end of Schmita.

In fact, quite the opposite:  The Dow Futures when I looked, were up almost 300 points.

This means the first  third of doomers have gotten it wrong, although they have until midnight for the “terrorist attack on September 8” predictions to come true.

That means we need only get to the Fed meeting without a collapse and Ures truly will have been right (not to climb on the doomer bandwagon) once again.

Of course, that should be followed by excuses galore.  Predictors like to be remembered for what they got right,  not what they missed.  Which is why I no longer pay attention to anyone’s research but my own and that of people who I can sit down with, look ‘em in the eye, and see their data.  Without that, it’s mostly  smoke being blown out the wrong end.

Here’s what I expect will happen if/when the Schmita crowd discovers they, too, were wrong in a week, or so:

The indicator can be off a few days so give it some leeway.

No.  It either works, or doesn’t.

The core idea is that Schmita (Elul 29) is the hot date.   That is next Sunday. 

And was Elul 29 the date of the market crash in 1987?  Nope.  According to the Jewish Calendar to Civil Calendar at www.chabad.org, the reality of 1987 is?

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That won’t slow down the charlatan.  They seem to claim 1987 was “close”.

But what it?  No?  26-days isn’t even double-ought buckshot close.

So when was Elul 29/ Schmita in 1987?

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OK, now we have some good dates to look at, and when Elul 29 for the year 1987 occurred, did we see a market crash?  See for yourself – and I did close dates as well.  You can find this on Yahoo Finance in seconds…

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Schmita was a HIGH, not a collapse.

The other reason I went a couple of days either side is that Elul (and all Jewish calendar dates” are measured from somewhere between sunset and nightfall.  Your Rabbi May Vary (YRMV).

So, does Mr. Ure dismiss the 1987 collapse as being a Schmita date?  Hell yeah.  You don’t think my friends at www.thechronicleproject.org would hang with a stupid goy-boy, did you?

So what about Schmita claims of 9/11/2001 being a Schmita even?  Not on your life.  That was Elul 23 (plus or min us the time zone debate, YRMV.

The market decline that followed was either a) because of the WTC attack or b) because of the new moon Elul 29.  I vote Twin Towers, but ya’ll can vote as you want.

So once again, what we have to deal with is a) the data and b) the strong possibility that in order to be a thought leader, a bit of intellectual precision and checking the work of others may be required.

I trust the Chabad people more than I trust most other people’s work because I can see their data and match it up with lunar calendars.

If you’re going to win (and not be bull breakfast) you have to be a smart bear, not a stupid one.

The smart bears think and read headlines like Stocks Rise With Oil as Late Shanghai Rally Brightens Outlook.  Then they look at the market futures which are up 300.

After reading UrbanSurvival, a few headlines, and considering risks, they avoid the traps and hang onto their accumulated net worth.

Ure welcome.

Madness on Bordering

Germany open to 500000 refugees each year as crisis grows on continent

Gov Shutdown II

Ted Cruz to Star in Government Shutdown, the Sequel.

OK, off to grab a bite and then a bit more snoozing, this is vacation time, after all.

Schmita and a Lesson in Backtesting
Coping: The Woo-Woo Returns, More Cruising Notes