Although it is not a hard-and-fast rule, there is oftentimes something of an upward bias to markets in the period leading into major holidays.
So, with the Fourth Of July three or four day weekend just ahead, it’s no wonder that I find myself somewhat long the market, waiting for the Big Move to the blow-off highs of July/August we’ve been predicting to show up.
There is some sense that the market is climbing a wall or worry, the more realistic outlook is that it’s climbing a “wall of cash…”
What is meant by this is simple. There are two factors which are driving the market onward and upward in our view: The Federal Reserve slopping cash on the market the same as you’d slop strawberry jam on a PB&J sandwich. It’s hard to put on too much jam, or for that matter, too much cash.
Still, we will see how the “monetary sandwich” is coming when the weekly Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stocks measure comes out this afternoon. Short of a revelation about testing ANS brakes on money-creation, the paper-hangers are one reason for the upward mobility of this pig.
The other reason is a little more subtle, but not much. We are almost to the end of a quarter – June 30th – and for the unfortunates of finance whose compensation depends on hitting performance benchmarks on a quarterly basis, this will be when a higher market will – for some – mean higher paychecks.
And if there are pension funds still putting in money on a quarterly basis, rather than monthly (or on-the-fly) that would help goose things in coming weeks, as well.
Now a lot of people may be under the mistaken impression that the market sold off yesterday. And while that’s true – if you look at the singular Dow Jones Industrial Average – when you look a bit more deeply on an aggregate basis – which is our stock & trade – the market actually went up yesterday.
The rise yesterday was due mainly to the fact that the NASDAQ increased more than the Dow went down.
Whether our latest hare-brained trade will work out remains to be seen, but 9-1/2 trades into the year, we don’t have any complaints.
For now, the futures are about flat. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing number about 10 AM Central may be of interest, though I expect it to firm which may move the market up a bit…but mainly this is a slow week. Holiday is still more than a week off, there is only minor news next week,
Even the week after will be a bit dry. That’s because the June Employment Report won’t be out until Friday the 7th which we’re sure suits the party-goers to the Hamptons just fine.
I will try to wake up from my morning nap around 10 to see that KC Fed number, but this is one of those “dog days of summer*” when I’ve lightened up on the coffee early so as to not have the kidneys interrupt nappy-time.
[Literary Critic Note: Although various computations of the dog days have placed their start (and it’s a Sirius matter) anywhere from 3 July to 15 August and lasting for anywhere from 30 to 61 days, we beg to differ. Around here, we use damn near any trite phrase handy in our feeble efforts to make the droll business of market-watching seem interesting. Most times it’s not. So we beg your forgiveness for such literary trespass.]
Tropical Sprinkler Cindy
While our friends in the mountain country of Arizona suffer through another day of heat warnings, and people down in the Valley of the Sun are thinking of renaming the Phoenix metro area The Surface of the Sun, our house guest Cindy will be dropping by the neighborhood shortly.
As of this morning, it looks like we will get two inches of rain and we will be unseasonably cool for another week, or longer. Won’t see 90 until a week from tomorrow at the earliest.
The rain, however, is a mixed blessing. If you happen to run beef cows this is like money falling from the sky. A four-cutting (of hay) year is a marvelous thing agriculturally. It’s also dandy if you sell power equipment parts. Because people like me will be mowing longer and more frequently than usual and that’s always good for business. Parts in particular, since every so-often a fence post will jump out and hit the mower deck.
Not to be fooled, I’m going to the eye doc next week.
We now return you to the asylum.
Drudge and Putin?
About the dumbest headline I’ve seen in a long while: “FEC Dem eyes widening Russia probe to Facebook, Drudge, foreign companies.”
Since America doesn’t seem to have anything else to do, the Trump-bashing by the snowflakes, the looney left, and the uninformed voters does remind us of one bit Reality often overlooked:
The Trump-bashing is largely a product of Desperation Media which – which has been featuring such late-breaking news as a certain television host farting in 2010.
This is “sticky content” (if you’ll pardon the word choice) for the low information voters. The rest of us have lives and don’t sign petitions orchestrated by the Obama government in exile, Soros Inc. or whoever is paying the lefties under the table.
You do know what GTFU means, right? (Hint)
More Is Less
We’re not the only ones on point: “Michael Moore: Dems have ‘no message, no plan, no leaders’.”
But then we hold these truths to be self-evident.
Pelosi’s Product Pull Date
But she’s really had a pretty good run. Says here since 1989 she has raised something like $22.6-million for her various campaigns, spending $20.9 million. That’s on top of $560 raised for
louse house democrats.
When you dig into her past support you’ll see a lot of healthcare, lawyers, and union support. All yesterday’s news. Healthcare is a financial nightmare – and going up 25% next year on top of this year’s load, lawyers are facing the prospect of swamp drains, and unions? Hell, with the exception of Letter Carriers and UPS drivers, who’s left?
The NY Times piece is headlined “:Trump turns Iowa Rally into a Venting Session.”
Makes it sound bad, but a more honest headline might have been “Trump talks straight with the Base…: Which is still refreshing in flyover country.
They focused on the Left’s immigration hot-button instead saying Trump was crafting legislation to bar new immigrants from receiving welfare for at least five years.
Here’s a revolutionary thought: Since most of American have roots going back generations how about under the Equal Protection clause we all file for back welfare not paid our families in the 1800’s? With interest, too…. I’m mean equality is equality, is it not? Why should new arrivals today get the free ride our ancestors did not?
Oh, whoops. Forgot myself. Equality isn’t equal…just keep repeating that.
Love to see hear the government-in-exile spins this one…and sadly we probably will. The media-left will make sure of that…
Speaking of Which: Losers
CNN rolling with “Trump: ‘I just don’t want a poor person’ in Cabinet.”
What the CNN reporter apparently missed is this thing called pro sports.
The way that works is pretty simple: If you want to win a Super Bowl, you get the best athletes you can find. They’re expensive but they win.
Same thing is (or ought) to be true in government. If you want success, bring in winner. If you want political correctness, and are willing to flush American down the financial crapper to get there, then sure, staff up with losers.
No Super Bowl rings in that approach, but Reality’s a bitch.