Will Wars Drive Markets? NFIB Dims

by

The stock market has a certain eau d’ fraud going on, presently.  There is no rational reason for anyone to put money into markets when there is this amount of global uncertainty about the future.

Yet, at the early pre-open check (about 6 AM Eastern) we were surprised to see futures attempting a run up to the mid-channel zone of the long-term (Yellow scale) Wave 2.

There are any number of ways for this to work out – which is why we never offer financial advice!  

When we look at this chart, however, there is a labeling sequence that could imply that Wave 2 was not really over July 31st.  Instead, we may see the re-animation of Wave 2 into a five waves affair.  In this instance, the a-b-c-d sequence would be 2(1) as a 1-2, 1-2, which then makes the previous count 5 into a 3 which means the present market did a 4 down and now we could go to the top of the Wave 2 channel for a (5) to really finish the larger 3.

Unfortunately, though, it could be that our earlier count is right and we are still in (yellow scale) 3 Down, where we have done i-ii-iii and are in a minor iv now, which could drop into v down (to complete a larger 3 (1) down, as a i-ii-iii-iv-v at any moment.

More interesting, though is how our “crossing trends work” is presenting:

This remains our favored count, for now. Although when the winds of war are blowing through manipulated markets it becomes kinda like visiting a crooked casino that everyone knows is crooked. But since there are still occasional winners, and the drinks are OK, we all keep going back…  The Ures included.

Mapping a Vexing Future

Most people listen to the news in an “in one ear and out the other” manner.  Pretending that it doesn’t personally impact them.  In the immediate mode, that happens to be true.

However, from the zoomed-out perspective, we WILL be impacted by all this ill-mannered warfighting over time.  When Taiwan is “reunified” China will have a most powerful “dog leash” on America’s future.  The shortages of grain from Ukraine in future years could easily ‘feed’ global famine’s development.  And the Middle East?  The House Plant in the Oval has environmental extremists who are trying to shut down gas and any liquid fossil fuel use as hard and fast as they can.  But face it: The Middle East is the critical production up for grabs and the Organization of Islamic Countries knows this very thing.

All a rational person can do is evolve a “Future Map” (using some of the flow chart symbols) where diamonds are “decision points” and then playing the IF-THEN game through many iterations.

When we do exactly this, the manipulation of stock markets becomes very clear.  Any rally now is likely the rich working through a massive “distribution” phase.  See, over time, there are basing periods to securities pricing.  Then comes the mark-up phase, let’s assume we are in distribution now, so the final act is the mark-down.

Tony Plummer wrote (in The Psychology of Technical Analysis) that the biggest action constraint (at decision points like this) is doubt. Doubt, as it turns out comes in a Baskins and Robbins assortment of flavors.  We have currency doubts, government doubts (BTW Biden underwent questioning by special prosecutor in the ‘secret documents’ case), war doubts, corruption doubts. and insider information doubts… the list is impressive.

One way we try to cope is modeling out page-after-page of IF-THEN’s.

Literally, like in the movie Pi the iterations can make you crazy.  Instead, about all you can do is try to keep up, and not go more than a decision point or two forward from present.  Beyond that, reliability of outlooks drops quickly.

NFIB Dims

Economic Data in Hand is not particularly encouraging. Here’s a press release just out:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct. 10, 2023) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased half of a point in September to 90.8. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from last month and tied with labor quality as the top concern.

“Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist. “Sales growth among small businesses have slowed and the bottom line is being squeezed, leaving owners few options beyond raising selling prices for financial relief.”

Key findings include:

  • Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated six points from August to a net negative 43% seasonally adjusted, however, 18 percentage points better than last June’s reading of net negative 61% and definitely at recession levels.
  • Forty-three percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, up three points from August and remaining historically high as owners can’t hire enough workers due to few qualified applicants.
  • Seasonally adjusted, a net 23% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down three points from August.
  • The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 29% seasonally adjusted, still a very inflationary level.
  • The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher increased one point from August to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted), still a very dismal posture.

For us, this is very much like a recession is still out there and the happy talk to make it materialize is having a hard go of things.

The IMF hints the Happy Talk is wrong: IMF outlook worsens for a world economy left ‘limping’ by shocks like Russia’s war.  It will take the policy wonks a while to figure out the impacts of Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, Hamas and the rest of the dance company in the Middle East.  But in a week, or two, things should come into focus, depending on whether Iran can goad Hezbollah into attacking Israel from the north.

Meanwhile, the West was played into depleting arms supplies in Ukraine resupply efforts.  So, pardon us when we read how The joint US-Israel plan for full-scale warfare has been implemented: USS Gerald R. Ford deploys with reinforced battle group! (vid) there are lingering concerns about how well we will be able to cope with two war fronts!

Don’t forget that we could have two more fronts opening at any time: The Koreas and Taiwan. Keeping your powder dry seems like a good saying to remember.

One for the road?  Picture a war between the Philippines and China… Chinese coast guard claims to have chased away Philippine navy ship from South China Sea shoal – ABC News.

Third Party and More

True confession time?  I used to vote for democrats about half the time when the world was still (more or less) sane.  At least compared to now. Old line democrats like Scoop Jackson and his ilk were liberal in good ways, yet strict constitutionalists at their core.  And they understood budgets.  Which I think the current sham of a party has completely betrayed.

But here’s the thing:  While he’s still too liberal on too many topics, I won’t rule out voting for RFK, Jr.  RFK Jr. declares independent 2024 presidential run, raises millions more.  We don’t need a rerun of the House Plan and Mr. Ego while great on policy will likely not be on enough state ballots to make it. Democrats are almost Stalinesque in how “their machines” work. Since both of the parties now have been usurped by corporations, is this the year that a Third Party – centrist with a Constitution and Borders would make sense?  Ah, we can dream…

Also on the political front: Will Hurd drops out of 2024 GOP race, backs Nikki Haley | The Kansas City Star.  Honestly, if it came down to Haley or RFK, that’d be a tough choice. It’s not likely to, though.

You didn’t get it – and neither did we: Powerball jackpot up to $1.73 billion as lottery losing streak continues.

Around the Ranch: Shopaholics, Health Note

Shop until you drop reminder:  Amazon’s Big Deals for Prime members is on.  Hmm… what don’t we have that we really need at this age?  There were actually several things we did order:  Mint chocolate Soylent meal shakes (programmer food, lol) and more voice remote switches for Alexa to deal with. Several surge protectors, too. Normally, I’d go with a higher spec item, but these are fine since they are in low-risk positions.

The Associated Press health notes in this story are interesting: Meds that can harm seniors’ driving skills; Plus, toddlers may “grow out” of their autism, and more health news (stltoday.com).

Not only is Tuesday garbage day, but this week it’s when we make a food supply run.  While we don’t live “high off the hog” the monthly cost for two of us to eat well has been running just over a thousand a month.

Today, Wal-Mart locally had USDA prime, prime rib in stock which only happens now and then.  We loaded up with three of the little beasties for “special events” around here. $200 bucks worth.  They freeze well, and as long as you thaw them out well ahead of time (bring up to almost room temp) they come out great.

You will want to slather such pricey delicacies with a half a stick of melted butter.  Putting this on the roast first means that when you sprinkle with garlic powder (not salt!) and fresh cracked peppers, it will stick.  Given a final dusting with Herbes d Provance and flashed at 450 for 20-minutes before turning almost off to cook through, there may (or may not) be enough leftovers to make an outlandishly good stroganoff the next day or three.  Fat side up when roasting, of course.

The mood around here has definitely turned to fall.  In fact, as a personal treat for keeping the weight off, I’ve added semi-sweet chocolate bits into the shopping list, again.  Time of the year when breakfast gets a “dessert” option.  Nothing like a cup of rich cocoa with a shot of peppermint schnapps in it.

Another sign of fall?  The cats are getting a lot more friendly. Love is food and food is love out here.  We’re keeping our fingers crossed that the world will return to rational, while it can.

Write when you get rich,0

George@ure.net

64 thoughts on “Will Wars Drive Markets? NFIB Dims”

  1. “ concerns about how well we will be able to cope with two war fronts!”

    Those two wars are defined by battle ground. – in reality, there are presently many “wars” … many battles but, you have to really look to see them. Once seen, you can’t unsee them.

  2. Yesterday was our semiannual shopping trip to town. During the 5 hour driving round trip Diana out of the blue told me her biggest fear living on the ranch is just what has been spewing out of the damn TV since the weekend. Being attacked and help not able to get here. When I told her I wouldn’t let anything like that happen her answer was but what if you’re gone, and what about our babies. Wow. We have work to do.
    Stay safe. 73

  5. Greetings Survivalites – Welcome To Indian Country.

    Speaking of which any of youse seen the one eyed freedom fighter from Gaza lately..?
    https://youtu.be/67tKNEsJjTI?si=WxDQCQ7qOno79Nnk

    They be looking for this master mind Hamaldi, or is he a desert mouse hiding behind sand Dune.

    One wonders where the desert Mouses’ inspiration and support come from ? Has Larry 2.0 already showed up to reprise his role …what was it, Military Intelligence 16 yrs?

    norks’ kim yu fat – what are you waiting for ? times a wasting..chopchop.

  6. Had a great time., thanks for asking !
    – The misses and I just spent a few days cruising the lake on a 26 foot, sloop rigged Pearson sailboat.[1982 vintage] Interior was beautifully redone in kiln dried beech wood. A friend offered and I jumped on it.
    – I live on the third deepest lake in the country., the second cleanest lake – 54 miles long. The elevation at my house is 1,104 feet ASL and at one point the lake is 400 feet below sea level.
    – The wind was not our friend going up lake., but we made it to Safety Harbor long before nightfall., anchored and spent a couple of days just hanging out, reading and eating. I jumped in – once ! That water is really cold. [ glacier fed.] The misses did really well, as she has never sailed before., she is scuba certified and a good swimmer., but has never spent any real time on a sailboat, much less a couple of nights. Still amazed on how bright the stars are when you’re out on the water – and no cell service past 25 Mile Creek – nothing to disrupt the cheese-meat-fruit platter and ice cold Riesling lunch ! Don’t know what the temperature was 40 feet down – but the wine, in a net sack, got pretty darn cold.
    – Got back, reluctantly, late yesterday. First thing I did was to offer to buy the boat. Not for sale – right now., but he’ll keep me in-mind. Might start looking for one – one with a better layout. Pearson built solid boats, way back when., but their choice of designs has something to be desired.
    – .
    – Looks like we missed the Kick-Off.., first quarter of the game is now in play. [ Israel.] Funny., in a way., I did not miss the news, nor email., nor anything else this techno-life offers.., The misses did miss her cell phone though. Read up on it this morning – this is not going to end well. When the U.N. Security Council refuses to condemn a terrorist attack – that speaks volumes for which way they want this to go. Looks as though Israel is going to get ganged up on by a few other countries and terrorist groups. [Again.] Since our aircraft carrier is now within easy striking distance, will the U.S. join in if Syria, or Egypt, or Iran strike Israel ? And wouldn’t that be a declaration of war ? We may not call it that – but they will.
    – .
    .., and…, where is the Belgorad [ K-329 ] ??

    • beautiful scenery on google, great for chillen a little wine but I have to pass on the spirit ;-)

    • “Don’t know what the temperature was 40 feet down – but the wine, in a net sack, got pretty darn cold.”

      Lake Superior is a lot less deep, and I heard it was, like 39° year-round, from about 15 feet, down. I don’t really think so, but when you’re diving in it, you can feel distinct thermal layers at about 6, 12, and 16 feet. Diving without a wetsuit is an interesting experience…
      ======

      “where is the Belgorad [ K-329 ] ??”

      I’d guess it’s somewhere off the coast of Baja, sailing kinda leisure-like, to a point a couple hundred (or so) leagues off San Francisco Bay, after having dropped a calling card or two in the Atlantic, a couple hundred leagues off the coast of Chesapeake Bay, several months ago…

      • I had so many good times at the Chesapeake Bay.. we use to go camping there.. and then long nets to scoop those tasty little crabs in..
        wonderful memories.. I met a really nice lighthouse keeper.. what a great time it was back then..

  7. Okay, I am going to come out and say it now… my little side of woo. I have been seeing 10/12 over and over and over for months, maybe years now. It used to be 11:11 all the time, that was a decade or more ago for me and then all went quiet. Then with c19 and stuff in 2020 I started seeing the 10/12. I thought it was silly because that happens to be my birthday, but as soon as the Hamas attack this past weekend I have had a deep pit in my stomach. Lots of anxiety, lots of uneasy feelings. I do not normally react to world news like this. So, if I had to put a dollar on a date, it would be 10/12.
    Good news is now that I posted this on a forum, you can be sure it will be a snoozer! :) Maybe next week, or the week after…

  8. “So, pardon us when we read how The joint US-Israel plan for full-scale warfare has been implemented: USS Gerald R. Ford deploys with reinforced battle group. ”

    Battle groups are for SHTF confligration. Strike groups are for policing actions and relatively smaller evolutions.

    Let’s see what 10% to the big guy has bought for US.

      • Agreed. That’s what I was thinking. God forbid the radical elements over here, (Antifa, BLM), with similar mindsets as the Middle Eastern groups start things up over here. I’m sure they see the Palestinians as the oppressed people like they see themselves as. Couple that with the who-knows-what has come across the border and we’d have our own mess to deal with….

        • exactly Will..we seen how fast thise two terrorist like organizations and their destruction took the big cities..leaving the very same neighborhoods and the good people living there that they claimed to be working for.
          those neighborhoods and the good people living there are more vulnerable and dangerous now than ever before.

      • Football coaches who stumble upon a play which is always successful, often keep running it until an opposing coach figures out a way to stop it. Since Cloward / Piven seems to be working well in lots of places, including our border. I see no reason why a puppetmaster wouldn’t keep running the same play until somebody figures out how to stop it.

        • what I wonder.. is How many Aircraft carriers does the USA have..
          from the cheap seat here and what I have read is we have one by Ukraine.. one by Taiwan and two by israel.. are there any left here at home to guard the homeland..

          https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/erdogan-slams-us-decision-to-deploy-warships-over-gaza/ar-AA1hZR77?

          I read one of the replies yesterday that had me take out a map and take a look.. the comment said take a look at where we are.. then at what is between those points.. and once seen you cannot unsee it..
          what is between all of this stuff going on..
          the fields of Armageddon then reading stu’s articles.. and the predictions that have been make centuries ago.. phew pretty mind boggling. Especially as all the players are being drawn into the action.. I kind of agree with what Xi has been saying.. calm down and lets work this out.I seriously doubt anyone can win a religious war… or can it be worked out diplomatically anymore.. as an old codger in the middle of the wastelands there is very little any of us can do.. I plan to stay away from the bigger cities and doing any traveling..

  9. PS what you dont see [below the surface] is also quite impressive when you get into a battlegroup operation.

    Got Flash Goggles?

    • quack quack-quack

      sounds like ducks, looks like ducks, swim like ducks and sit like ducks…mr sitting ducks.

      Arash drones, not just for wire delivery/drops, they are sortie like for overwhelming EW systems, and inflicting mortal wounds on hard targets..those crafty Iranians. Xerxes 1 would be proud.

  10. Recession Predictions [ ? ]
    The NY Fed relies on the spread (difference in yield) between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill to determine the probability of a U.S. recession taking place within the next 12 months. Although the U.S. economy and stock market aren’t linked at the hip, throughout history, stocks have struggled mightily following the official declaration of a recession. Approximately two-thirds of the S&P 500’s drawdowns have occurred after, not prior to, a recession being declared. It’s this link that makes the NY Fed’s recession forecasting tool so meaningful to Wall Street and investors.
    As of the latest data release, the NY Fed’s probability tool is forecasting a 56.16% chance of a U.S. recession by September 2024. This reading represents the highest likelihood of a recession in more than four decades. All 12 recessions following World War II have been preceded by a yield-curve inversion.
    Since 1966, any time the NY Fed’s forecasting tool has surpassed a 32% probability of a recession within 12 months, it hasn’t been wrong.
    As of this morning the 13 week Treasury is at 5.33% and the 10 Year Treasury is at 4.65% – still heavily inverted.
    .
    On an “Up Note”
    Since September 1929, the average bear market has lasted just 286 calendar days, however, the typical bull market lasts 1,011 calendar days, or roughly 3.5 times as long as the average bear market. Being an optimist isn’t such a bad thing after-all.

  11. It occurred to me over the weekend that wars fought over resources are very different than wars fought over religion. Watching the slaughter of innocents in the name of Allah is a far cry from watching soldiers fighting for grain or oil or water.

    JC posted it yesterday but I urge everyone to read this article from Stu. It is well worth it. This Middle East war is well explained by Stu and prophesied many years ago. It will most likely go nuclear well before anything in Ukraine or North Korea.

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2023/10/08/challenge-won-the-war-in-israel-was-no-surprise-to-my-readers/

    The best time to prepare was yesterday. Second best is today.

    • “wars fought over resources are very different than wars fought over religion. “

      When you are told that mining coal is bad, but mining copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel is good, you know you are being conned.

  12. re: Destination Holodeck

    Folks,

    Today’s official White House schedule indicates that the Daily Briefing to the incumbent was delivered two hours after the latest drop of ‘Urban. Interestingly the Administration will mass later at the theatrically-enabled South Court Auditorium within the White House grounds. Apparently the President will deliver a virtual address at 1530 est to the “U.S. Fire Administrator’s Summit on Fire Prevention & Control”. The Summit is taking place 60 miles away in Emmitsburg, Md. However the Summit Agenda webpage makes no mention of a presidential address. Maybe it’s meant to be a surprise?

    • I have to credit Texas gov Greg Abbott for giving the NE a lil “Texas hospitality” and making shit work. He’s the kind of guy who needs to be President – gets things done.
      Draft him?>

      • AMEN…
        unfortunately.. with as many as the open border allowed in.. we don’t have a clue how many of them were warriors being sent posing as refugees.. then the
        cloward piven act and its affects on our economy..
        https://study.com/learn/lesson/cloward-piven-strategy-steps-theory.html
        .. either way we are screwed.. i wish I could find the analysis that I read that said it was estimated that eighty thousand warriors could be within the USA.. already.. if this elevates and another strike group has to head out.. like to taiwan or south korea.. or to any other of our alies that we swore to protect..
        The best that I can see that can come from this is the worst depression in modern history.. then I got the bad news today.. the guy came to install the rocket heater.. only to find out where it would have to go won’t work.. not at all.. so I will give it to one of the kids..
        https://prepperhideout.com/products/liberator-rocket-heater-generation-2-wood-burning-or-pellet-stove-with-pellet-hopper?
        Sad news for me.. I wanted to get it in.. just in case.. a very nice looking stove to I might add.. and not to heavy either.. its funny how that has gone up so much since I first got ours.. the cost of installing the chimney trippled to.. so I at least saved that much..

      • Yo Tex,

        They seem to have stoped rolling bus loads of UBBs to NE. Dem dar progressive coastals have shit tons community services and community resources to share with their new found community partners. Should the good Guv need any advice -( natguard air lifts) I suggest contacting saint aoc, she can show him and Ure Brown Buddies the way.

  14. “We’re keeping our fingers crossed that the world will return to rational, while it can.”
    – Sorry, boss – that will not happen in our life time. We are over the jump-line and there are not enough parachutes to go around.
    – As far as I can see., we are in for one hell of a ride over the next 18 to 24 months.

  15. “We’re keeping our fingers crossed that the world will return to rational, while it can.”

    Eternal optimist, aren’t you. Not a snowball’s chance in a blast furnace, IMO. Along those lines I’ve been thinking about what happens when our sea-born supply lines are severed. No refinery on this island. It’s on Oahu. Gas barges to neighbor islands. I’m seriously going shopping for a bicycle. It’s two miles to the fishing hole at the shore, and four miles into the village for trade or whatever.

    • Look for a flat bar touring bike geared low. Expect to pay $1000 to $1500 for a lower end model. Get something a dealer can service on your island. I like Cr-Mo frames but aluminum will do. Stay away from composites. Have the dealer put a rack on it, and pick up some large cargo panniers.
      I put a shock absorber post and stem on because I ride rough rural roads and I have history.
      There are lots of alternatives when transports are working, but nothing will be available when you really need it, so it is best to dress out the whole rig, and lay in a stock of spare tubes, tires and lubes. Get puncture resistant touring tires. I am using 2.5″ Surly ET tires. Have had one flat. Cracks in the pavement from drought became so large and deep on rural roads here that I dropped a 2.5″ tire into one, and the tube pinched and popped when I came out the back side. Get a good floor model hand air pump with a gauge if you don’t have one. You want a non-electric rig and support equipment.
      An alternative would be to get a bike trailer. I would like to have one of those single wheel Euro models with a shock and a seat post towing mount, but they aren’t really available here, and they cost as much as a good bicycle. I went with the rack and a set of large panniers.
      Eight miles round trip is a very long ride fully loaded for an old guy on a flatland bike like a beach bike or a trike. I do a twelve mile ride pretty regular, but that is unloaded, and I have stump puller low end touring gears for hill climbs. The longest I have gone this summer is two 12 mile rides in one day, and it took a couple of months to build up to that.
      Good luck with your bicycle project. I have had a lot of fun with mine, and I am riding it more days than not when weather permits.

  16. We in the cheap seats can’t be sure the USS Gerald R. Ford will even work.

    Recall at the beginning of the Ukie Offense the U.S. deployed Patriot batteries. Those sounded good at the time too and were dragged home in pieces.

    I’d guess the F has similar offense.

    The Iron Dome failed.

    There’s always going to be an excuse why it didn’t work. Maybe the guard fell asleep we won’t know. Maybe the F was a billion $ boondoggle. What can we say? Just like the Patriot battery, nothing. No refunds.

    “Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

    – May 16, 2023

    • I’m quite sure it can sink. The question is who or when someone decides that it’s worth the retaliatory cost of that level of escalation. Apparently someone thought it was worth destroying the Nordstream pipelines, and I’m sure that’s not been forgotten.

    • The Patriot batteries did not fail, they were mis-applied. Patriot’s strength is its working ceiling. It is meant to shoot planes or missiles that’re up between 50,000 and 100,000 ft. The Patriot is not fast or adroit enough to reliably shoot S-S or A-G missiles.

      The Israelis’ “Iron Dome” is an excellent anti-missile battery. It did not fail, by any metric. It was overwhelmed, as Hamas rained thousands of rockets down.

      The only perfect defense is to not allow an opposing force to exist. This can be done cooperatively, diplomatically, or by force. None of the three means are permanent.

    • Pathfinder Bob,

      What a coinkydoink! Apparently Finland was 100% dependent upon pipelined gas from Russia before Balticconnector became operational in 2020?…

  19. We’ve seen the arguing around a dinner table setup.

    At some point someone pounds the table and tells everyone to stop and everyone stops. That was the Atomic Bomb of WW2. *BOOM* and everyone stops/generally cooperates.

    We’ve all seen the alternate dinner table setup when everyone refuses to cooperate, jump up and start fist fighting.

    That’s what will happen with today’s bombs.

    Maybe by this weekend. After market close Friday, of course.

  20. Geiger counter, cheaper. George’s radiation meter was $158 at the Zon, now $127 for Prime Day. Still in stock.
    GMC-500Plus Geiger Counter Nuclear Radiation Detector Monitor Dosimeter, White

  21. George,

    The fractal maximum growth model for 6 October 2023 peak US long term debt interest rates holds.

    In 2020, the world’s total assets were worth about a quadrillion dollars and its total debt over a 250 trillion. Total asset worth and debt has expanded since 2020.

    As bad as it is for local humanity, parochial wars have miniscule to no impact on the 1.4-1.5 quadrillion Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system.

    Self-assembly saturation selling and saturation buying determine the respective nadir and peak valuation inflections points of the global equity, commodity and debt markets.

    The Chinese housing market exemplifies the extremes of saturation buying. In China about 2 residential properties owned by the private investment owners, are unoccupied. This 200% excess capacity in China compares to about 3 % excess capacity in the US during the subprime 2007-2008 housing bubble. Stated otherwise, there is enough excess residential property in China to house another 2 billion Chinese. The valuations of these overbuilt Ponzi properties will fall by 80 to 95%, collapsing the citizenry’s wealth.

    The quantum fractal model currently still targets a 27 October 2023 interim major low for global equities, commodities, and cypto’s.

  22. Where did the stars go? I was going to give full credit!

    One thing I wanted to mention is regarding the blurb about early diagnosed autistics losing 40% of their diagnoses at age six. That’s the honeymoon period. Expect real problems to return at or around puberty, though many will have learned to mask their symptoms to a degree by then. Good results for an autistic are when they’re satisfied with their situation, not just when society is. It’s too easy to teach a person to jump through hoops on command. It’s what happens in a totally non-structured emotionally charged situation that’s the acid test.

  23. Fetterman on Display.
    I saw a TV promo tonight for Stephen Colbert show advertising that Fetterman will be a guest. That Fetterman (Pennsylvania Congress critter who suffered a stroke) is willing to put his communication disability on full display on national television tells me that his judgement is less than optimal, also.

    https://www.ebay.com/itm/314227762664

  24. “Nothing like a cup of rich cocoa with a shot of peppermint schnapps in it.”
    THAT is supposed to be reserved for a ‘far north’ treat when it is well below zero and one is outdoors ice skating, or snowmobiling, or XC skiing in the woods. Quart Thermos size. But for a warm Texas breakfast… well… you should be ashamed. And to complete the guilt… it’s fattening, too!
    (Calories do not apply when you are outdoors and below zero and burning them just to stay warm!)

  25. “Shop until you drop reminder: Amazon’s Big Deals for Prime members is on. ”

    I had no idea two days ago that this was gonna happen, but thanks to “Big Deals,” my kids are all getting 3D printers for Christmas, this year. $150 for the Creality Ender 3 Neo? AYFKM? The three with little ones are also getting home teaching kits to introduce Junior to the art…

    • Wow.. I had thought about getting a Creality.. I would have to learn how to use the dumb thing.. but wow.. that is a great price.. I just couldn’t talk the boss into letting me get another tool for projects that will take years for me to get to LOL
      Usually I get the kids to gift me one.. she can’t say No to a gift LOL LOL LOL like my george foreman countertop griddle LOL LOL I will put the bug in the ears of the kids.. say gosh that would be a great christmas gift.. LOL LOL LOL

      • Better talk fast. It’ll be $229 tomorrow, which will be the cheapest price on the ‘Net. That 150 buck price is direct from Creality and sold through Amazon.

        • Thanks for the head’s up! I looked up the printer and then asked my daughter to get it using her Prime account. She knows the Creality units quite well and got an extra one for herself. Both are expected to show up at her place on the weekend, so I get an excuse to visit and perhaps learn something new.

      • If I can learn to use a Creality, anyone can. There are enough free object files on Thingiverse and Yeggi to keep you in printing projects for years. FreeCad will let you branch out into designing your own projects. Once again, if I can learn it, anyone can. Lots of YouTube tutorials on all of the above.

        If you get the Creality, there are upgrades that are well worth the price. The silent motherboard (may come standard on newer units) and auto bed-leveling make the things easier to live with.

        • The Neo has auto-leveling and the granite-ish (carborundum glass) bed, and a number of, what were “rolling upgrades” to the Ender-3 Pro. That $150 was a buck cheaper than the Creality/Big Deals price for the old Ender-3.

          —–

          I’d absolutely consider suggestions for books, materials, and webpages for newbs. To my knowledge, none of da kids have ever even seen a 3D printer (except for my old daVinci), let alone used one. It’s probably a priggish thing to do, but I intend to not help anyone. I had to learn this shit on my own, and every one of them is likely brighter than I, so they should pick it up in no time — ‘specially those with home schooled little ‘uns…

        • I am pretty sure I could learn how.. but I remember trying to learn the smart phone.. I had to have an eight year old come show me how LOL LOL LOL.I had a problem over thinking it….
          It would be fun .. I have asked the boss a few times in the past.. but she said no way you got enough crap around here to work on.. I had thought of getting a metal printer.. and a three d scanner .https://store.creality.com/products/cr-30-3d-printer?
          But it is just a wish ..one day maybe..right now I am busy getting things ready for grid down and supply chain issues. Eating and staying warm are a much bigger issue that needs to be considered…..
          when I did painting.. we use to do custom crap.. We did a cuda.. drag racer.. acid dipped body.. parts of the sub frame were cut away and cardboard and styrofoam were replaced.. that thing was a beauty.. but we had a lot of issues in moving it.. since we moved it by hand on rollers.. you had to push it with your hands dam thing was so thin that you put big dents in it.. the steel body was slightly thicker than aluminum foil.. check it and it looked road worthy but you were sitting on a car that was half of the weight it was originally scary.. motorcycle bike tanks .. and big murals etc.. it was fun.. I painted a lot of inflatable beer cans the size of a water tower we did a horse for bud etc.. it was a fun day labor job… it use to be a…. BIG…. thing .. we did a mural for the local airport.. it was gorgeous.. big .. it was of a local tourist location.. LOL LOL ….
          https://www.creatableinflatables.com/giant-product-replicas

  26. “Are We in a Stealth Depression?”

    Probably.. everyone I know including MUAH.. is panic buying.. it was all planned over a hundred years ago.. from reading the diary.. we see that the combination of GREED and FEAR … the same as today.. industrialists of the day.. to keep that at bay.. use to take a little less profit and treated their workers like a family.. ( realized that training new people constantly costs money) the same thing today.. a company smoozes the executives.. gives them excellent benefits.. and bonuses that would shock the world.. but for the people.. very little comes along.. there are very few places that offer a retirement package and medical insurance is unheard of.. more people are uninsured or under insured.. for us.. it costs us a fortune for medical.. and then the copays.. people die with nothing millionaires are reduced to poverty.. retirement homes has the largest percentage of residents that are fresh divorcees.. those that don’t end up living in their cars.. I can’t even tell you how many times I have gone out to a car and had the husband come in and made up a bed in a room that was empty.. or the couch in the lobby.. got them a sandwich or juice.. I had a very high up retired AG ( attorney General ) break down into tears.. because of his situation and the fact that he couldn’t even get a bowl of cheerios unless he begged for them.. ( he didn’t after we talked.. I got him and everyone what they needed….
    I worked for one of the top two hundred hospitals in our country and wasn’t able to take advantage of the vacation time.. yup I wasn’t high enough on the employee rosters to be able to get the time off.. see it was how they planned it.. I was a point five. which meant I was guaranteed five days of work per pay period.. and I had to be there on my scheduled weekends.. so the most you could take off was five days.. or fly back etc.. do your weekend then go out..in the end you lost five days of pay.. so after I maxed out my savings of retirement.. I would donate my two weeks of vacation to someone that was sick.. if you got sick you were gone.. finished ..
    what was is back .. all over again..
    Even with the VA healthcare system.. the good thing is.. you get in faster to see a doctor or specialist than if you go to an outside doctor. waits on some over a year away.. but they charge for your visit.. I pay fifty bucks copay.. if you don’t have the copay.. then they bill you.. for medications generic is fifteen and up to I believe two hundred for name brand of what they have on their list.. if it isn’t on their acceptable med list then you pay full price. they use to just jump into your account and deduct what you owed this year they started something new and now send it to a bill collection service that charges you huge interest rates..
    You don’t leave with a dime.. that is the illusion they want you to buy..
    Nationwide, about 100 million people have some form of health care debt. Of those, about 1 in 5 said the debts have forced them to change their living situation, including moving in with friends or family, according to a 2022 KFF poll. Our last gentleman he lost his farm his rental home his business everything.. I had to buy him a winter coat and clothing … they took it all.. just because he had to pay for his wifes care that had cancer..her final expenses.. so yes children are moving in with parents.. and parents are moving in with children.. even with a six digit income the cost of a home in these parts is quarter mil..
    Congress gave the big names the money set aside for social security or medicare destroying it.. I remember Ronald Reagan on television saying that it would always be secure.. that the US govt. would be there.. but to stabilize the markets and keep the to big to fail bankers afloat it had to be done.. so what did they do.. gave out multi million dollar bonuses.. to the high ups made the perks for their lifestyles to exceet and took it away from those at the bottom.. in the seventies.. dad worked mom stayed home with the kids.. there was an adult presence in the home.. now mom has to work dad has to work double jobs.. and the kids are raised by MSM and the neighborhood gangs.. the bad seed..

    https://archive.org/details/greatdepressiond0000roth

    https://archive.org/details/church-state-g-edward-griffin-the-creature-from-jekyll-island

    How this ends will be bad.. the USA cannot repay the debt from those making ten dollars an hour.. or even twenty dollars an hour.. and anyone and everyone that has had to live by credit card can tell you that you cannot pay off the debt of those expenses.. which says to me.. a total reset is coming like Argentina and Zimbabwe.. our dollar has already shrunk in value by fifty percent or more.. life of endless wars and neglection of the infrastructure is going to take a toll.. they could have secured the grid.. it was cheaper and easier.. but it took a little away from the greed.. the profitability.. ( I could go into my rant on solar towers co2 filters and greenscaping cities and air wells for the arid regions but that is all beyond being done now)
    as soon as plastic runs out.. we will be knee deep in economic HELL… brick and mortar will have to close.. it takes money to keep the building expenses going.. and it takes income to keep an employee working..
    go to your local walmart.. what you will see is Xmas stuff.. not halloween or thanksgiving.. xmas.. the reason.. when I asked one manager he said he had to get it because the supply chain is broken and they feared they wouldn’t be able to get stuff for sale.. buy it now before you can’t.. which is what the people are doing..
    hunger.. the price of necessities are through the roof.. those with money on the bank account are finding that.. they have half as much due to inflation.. or you can follow the whole thing in Adolph hitlers second secret book..
    https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-LJ6TYTWXd-mi-Hxg/Zweites%20Buch%20%28Hitler%27s%20Secret%20Book%29_djvu.txt

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